Short-term wind power forecasting using Gaussian processes

Since wind has an intrinsically complex and stochastic nature, accurate wind power forecasts are necessary for the safety and economics of wind energy utilization. In this paper, we investigate a combination of numeric and probabilistic models: one-day-ahead wind power forecasts were made with Gaussian Processes (GPs) applied to the outputs of a Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model. Firstly the wind speed data from NWP was corrected by a GP. Then, as there is always a defined limit on power generated in a wind turbine due the turbine controlling strategy, a Censored GP was used to model the relationship between the corrected wind speed and power output. To validate the proposed approach, two real world datasets were used for model construction and testing. The simulation results were compared with the persistence method and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs); the proposed model achieves about 11% improvement in forecasting accuracy (Mean Absolute Error) compared to the ANN model on one dataset, and nearly 5% improvement on another.

Power in distribution channels - Supplier assortment strategy for balancing power

This paper focuses on the move from buyer dominance toward interdependence between buyers and suppliers in a distribution channel. The paper introduces a case study collected through in-depth interviews and participative observations. It examines the relationships between a timber supplier and its customers in the builders' merchants sector. We stress the relevance of considering actions intended to change the power balance, rather than focusing only on trust. The power balance in a dyadic relationship is dynamic, and power positions need to be constantly re-evaluated. An important power resource is information asymmetry, manifested in the supplier's information about: products, regional and local demand, and the usage of the products. For practitioners, we highlight the possibility of exerting a non-coercive power resource, such as information asymmetry, in order to increase the relative power. Furthermore, being open about the power position between a buyer and a seller can foster a more efficient collaboration.

Poland's power and influence in the European union:the case of its Eastern policy

This paper seeks to assess the degree to which Poland exercises power and influence in the European Union. It employs Poland's policy towards its eastern neighbours as a case study, and, in doing so, contributes to two wider scholarly debates on how EU policy towards Russia, Ukraine and Belarus is made, and also the broader question of the evolving nature of the relationship between the European Union and its member states. In doing so, it employs a synthetic framework that brings together the approaches for studying the power and influence of a given member state that were developed by Wallace et al. (2005), Tallberg (2008) and Moravcsik (1991, 1993, 1998). It concludes that Polish influence has been low.

Short-term and long-term changes in corneal power are not correlated with axial elongation of the eye induced by orthokeratology in children

PURPOSE: To assess the relationship between short-term and long-term changes in power at different corneal locations relative to the change in central corneal power and the 2-year change in axial elongation relative to baseline in children fitted with orthokeratology contact lenses (OK). METHODS: Thirty-one white European subjects 6 to 12 years of age and with myopia −0.75 to −4.00 DS and astigmatism ≤1.00 DC were fitted with OK. Differences in refractive power 3 and 24 months post-OK in comparison with baseline and relative to the change in central corneal power were determined from corneal topography data in eight different corneal regions (i.e., N[nasal]1, N2, T[temporal]1, T2, I[inferior]1, I2, S[superior]1, S2), and correlated with OK-induced axial length changes at two years relative to baseline. RESULTS: After 2 years of OK lens wear, axial length increased by 0.48±0.18 mm (P0.05). CONCLUSION: The reduction in central corneal power and relative increase in paracentral and pericentral power induced by OK over 2 years were not significantly correlated with concurrent changes in axial length of white European children.