The uncertainty enabled model web (UncertWeb)

UncertWeb is a European research project running from 2010-2013 that will realize the uncertainty enabled model web. The assumption is that data services, in order to be useful, need to provide information about the accuracy or uncertainty of the data in a machine-readable form. Models taking these data as imput should understand this and propagate errors through model computations, and quantify and communicate errors or uncertainties generated by the model approximations. The project will develop technology to realize this and provide demonstration case studies.

Stepping Stones to Information Literacy: a PebblePad case study

Aston University has recently made PebblePad, an e-portfolio or personal learning system, available to all students within the University. The customisable Profiles within PebblePad allow students to self-declare their skills in particular areas, attaching evidence of their skills or an action plan for improvement to each statement. Formal Information Literacy (IL) teaching within Aston University is currently limited to Library & Information Services (LIS) Information Specialists delivering a maximum of one session to each student during each level of their degree. However, many of the skills are continually developed by students during the course of their academic studies. For this project, an IL skills profile was created within PebblePad, which was then promoted to groups of staff and students to complete during the academic session 2009-10. Functionality within PebblePad allowed students to share their IL skills profile, evidence, action plans or any other items they felt were appropriate with an LIS Information Specialist who was able to add comments and offer suggestions for activities to help the student to develop further. Activities were closely related to students’ coursework where possible: suggesting a student kept a short reflective log of their information searching and evaluating process for an upcoming essay, for example. Feedback on the usefulness of the IL Profile will be sought from students through focus groups and the communication tools in PebblePad. In this way, we hope to make students more aware of their IL skills and to offer IL skills support over a longer period of time than a single session can provide. We will present preliminary conclusions about the practicalities and benefits of a self-declaration approach to developing IL skills in students at Aston University.

The Application of Geographic Information Systems to climate change & land evaluation : a study of the effects of climate change upon crop productivity in a sub-tropical environment

This research investigates the contribution that Geographic Information Systems (GIS) can make to the land suitability process used to determine the effects of a climate change scenario. The research is intended to redress the severe under representation of Developing countries within the literature examining the impacts of climatic change upon crop productivity. The methodology adopts some of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates for regional climate variations, based upon General Circulation Model predictions (GCMs) and applies them to a baseline climate for Bangladesh. Utilising the United Nations Food & Agricultural Organisation's Agro-ecological Zones land suitability methodology and crop yield model, the effects of the scenario upon agricultural productivity on 14 crops are determined. A Geographic Information System (IDRISI) is adopted in order to facilitate the methodology, in conjunction with a specially designed spreadsheet, used to determine the yield and suitability rating for each crop. A simple optimisation routine using the GIS is incorporated to provide an indication of the 'maximum theoretical' yield available to the country, should the most calorifically significant crops be cultivated on each land unit both before and after the climate change scenario. This routine will provide an estimate of the theoretical population supporting capacity of the country, both now and in the future, to assist with planning strategies and research. The research evaluates the utility of this alternative GIS based methodology for the land evaluation process and determines the relative changes in crop yields that may result from changes in temperature, photosynthesis and flooding hazard frequency. In summary, the combination of a GIS and a spreadsheet was successful, the yield prediction model indicates that the application of the climate change scenario will have a deleterious effect upon the yields of the study crops. Any yield reductions will have severe implications for agricultural practices. The optimisation routine suggests that the 'theoretical maximum' population supporting capacity is well in excess of current and future population figures. If this agricultural potential could be realised however, it may provide some amelioration from the effects of climate change.