Neural Network Modelling with Input Uncertainty: Theory and Application

It is generally assumed when using Bayesian inference methods for neural networks that the input data contains no noise. For real-world (errors in variable) problems this is clearly an unsafe assumption. This paper presents a Bayesian neural network framework which accounts for input noise provided that a model of the noise process exists. In the limit where the noise process is small and symmetric it is shown, using the Laplace approximation, that this method adds an extra term to the usual Bayesian error bar which depends on the variance of the input noise process. Further, by treating the true (noiseless) input as a hidden variable, and sampling this jointly with the network’s weights, using a Markov chain Monte Carlo method, it is demonstrated that it is possible to infer the regression over the noiseless input. This leads to the possibility of training an accurate model of a system using less accurate, or more uncertain, data. This is demonstrated on both the, synthetic, noisy sine wave problem and a real problem of inferring the forward model for a satellite radar backscatter system used to predict sea surface wind vectors.

Neural network enhanced self tuning adaptive control application for non-linear control of dynamic systems

The main theme of research of this project concerns the study of neutral networks to control uncertain and non-linear control systems. This involves the control of continuous time, discrete time, hybrid and stochastic systems with input, state or output constraints by ensuring good performances. A great part of this project is devoted to the opening of frontiers between several mathematical and engineering approaches in order to tackle complex but very common non-linear control problems. The objectives are: 1. Design and develop procedures for neutral network enhanced self-tuning adaptive non-linear control systems; 2. To design, as a general procedure, neural network generalised minimum variance self-tuning controller for non-linear dynamic plants (Integration of neural network mapping with generalised minimum variance self-tuning controller strategies); 3. To develop a software package to evaluate control system performances using Matlab, Simulink and Neural Network toolbox. An adaptive control algorithm utilising a recurrent network as a model of a partial unknown non-linear plant with unmeasurable state is proposed. Appropriately, it appears that structured recurrent neural networks can provide conveniently parameterised dynamic models for many non-linear systems for use in adaptive control. Properties of static neural networks, which enabled successful design of stable adaptive control in the state feedback case, are also identified. A survey of the existing results is presented which puts them in a systematic framework showing their relation to classical self-tuning adaptive control application of neural control to a SISO/MIMO control. Simulation results demonstrate that the self-tuning design methods may be practically applicable to a reasonably large class of unknown linear and non-linear dynamic control systems.

Driving licensing renewal policy using neural network-based probabilistic decision support system

This paper investigates neural network-based probabilistic decision support system to assess drivers' knowledge for the objective of developing a renewal policy of driving licences. The probabilistic model correlates drivers' demographic data to their results in a simulated written driving exam (SWDE). The probabilistic decision support system classifies drivers' into two groups of passing and failing a SWDE. Knowledge assessment of drivers within a probabilistic framework allows quantifying and incorporating uncertainty information into the decision-making system. The results obtained in a Jordanian case study indicate that the performance of the probabilistic decision support systems is more reliable than conventional deterministic decision support systems. Implications of the proposed probabilistic decision support systems on the renewing of the driving licences decision and the possibility of including extra assessment methods are discussed.

The time dimension of neural network models

This review attempts to provide an insightful perspective on the role of time within neural network models and the use of neural networks for problems involving time. The most commonly used neural network models are defined and explained giving mention to important technical issues but avoiding great detail. The relationship between recurrent and feedforward networks is emphasised, along with the distinctions in their practical and theoretical abilities. Some practical examples are discussed to illustrate the major issues concerning the application of neural networks to data with various types of temporal structure, and finally some highlights of current research on the more difficult types of problems are presented.

A novel neural network technique for exploratory data analysis

This paper surveys the context of feature extraction by neural network approaches, and compares and contrasts their behaviour as prospective data visualisation tools in a real world problem. We also introduce and discuss a hybrid approach which allows us to control the degree of discriminatory and topographic information in the extracted feature space.

Practical assessment of neural network applications

This paper reports the initial results of a joint research project carried out by Aston University and Lloyd's Register to develop a practical method of assessing neural network applications. A set of assessment guidelines for neural network applications were developed and tested on two applications. These case studies showed that it is practical to assess neural networks in a statistical pattern recognition framework. However there is need for more standardisation in neural network technology and a wider takeup of good development practice amongst the neural network community.

A combined neural network and DEA for measuring efficiency of large scale datasets

Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is one of the most widely used methods in the measurement of the efficiency and productivity of Decision Making Units (DMUs). DEA for a large dataset with many inputs/outputs would require huge computer resources in terms of memory and CPU time. This paper proposes a neural network back-propagation Data Envelopment Analysis to address this problem for the very large scale datasets now emerging in practice. Neural network requirements for computer memory and CPU time are far less than that needed by conventional DEA methods and can therefore be a useful tool in measuring the efficiency of large datasets. Finally, the back-propagation DEA algorithm is applied to five large datasets and compared with the results obtained by conventional DEA.

Neural network control of a gas turbine

In this paper we explore the practical use of neural networks for controlling complex non-linear systems. The system used to demonstrate this approach is a simulation of a gas turbine engine typical of those used to power commercial aircraft. The novelty of the work lies in the requirement for multiple controllers which are used to maintain system variables in safe operating regions as well as governing the engine thrust.

Composite materials impact damage detection using neural networks

This thesis considers two basic aspects of impact damage in composite materials, namely damage severity discrimination and impact damage location by using Acoustic Emissions (AE) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). The experimental work embodies a study of such factors as the application of AE as Non-destructive Damage Testing (NDT), and the evaluation of ANNs modelling. ANNs, however, played an important role in modelling implementation. In the first aspect of the study, different impact energies were used to produce different level of damage in two composite materials (T300/914 and T800/5245). The impacts were detected by their acoustic emissions (AE). The AE waveform signals were analysed and modelled using a Back Propagation (BP) neural network model. The Mean Square Error (MSE) from the output was then used as a damage indicator in the damage severity discrimination study. To evaluate the ANN model, a comparison was made of the correlation coefficients of different parameters, such as MSE, AE energy, AE counts, etc. MSE produced an outstanding result based on the best performance of correlation. In the second aspect, a new artificial neural network model was developed to provide impact damage location on a quasi-isotropic composite panel. It was successfully trained to locate impact sites by correlating the relationship between arriving time differences of AE signals at transducers located on the panel and the impact site coordinates. The performance of the ANN model, which was evaluated by calculating the distance deviation between model output and real location coordinates, supports the application of ANN as an impact damage location identifier. In the study, the accuracy of location prediction decreased when approaching the central area of the panel. Further investigation indicated that this is due to the small arrival time differences, which defect the performance of ANN prediction. This research suggested increasing the number of processing neurons in the ANNs as a practical solution.

Analyzing MSI rules for the USA extracted from a feedforward neural network

This paper introduces a mechanism for generating a series of rules that characterize the money price relationship for the USA, defined as the relationship between the rate of growth of the money supply and inflation. Monetary component data is used to train a selection of candidate feedforward neural networks. The selected network is mined for rules, expressed in human-readable and machine-executable form. The rule and network accuracy are compared, and expert commentary is made on the readability and reliability of the extracted rule set. The ultimate goal of this research is to produce rules that meaningfully and accurately describe inflation in terms of the monetary component dataset.

Neural network DEA for measuring the efficiency of mutual funds

Efficiency in the mutual fund (MF), is one of the issues that has attracted many investors in countries with advanced financial market for many years. Due to the need for frequent study of MF's efficiency in short-term periods, investors need a method that not only has high accuracy, but also high speed. Data envelopment analysis (DEA) is proven to be one of the most widely used methods in the measurement of the efficiency and productivity of decision making units (DMUs). DEA for a large dataset with many inputs/outputs would require huge computer resources in terms of memory and CPU time. This paper uses neural network back-ropagation DEA in measurement of mutual funds efficiency and shows the requirements, in the proposed method, for computer memory and CPU time are far less than that needed by conventional DEA methods and can therefore be a useful tool in measuring the efficiency of a large set of MFs. Copyright © 2014 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

Evaluation efficiency of large-scale data set with negative data:an artificial neural network approach

Data envelopment analysis (DEA) is the most widely used methods for measuring the efficiency and productivity of decision-making units (DMUs). The need for huge computer resources in terms of memory and CPU time in DEA is inevitable for a large-scale data set, especially with negative measures. In recent years, wide ranges of studies have been conducted in the area of artificial neural network and DEA combined methods. In this study, a supervised feed-forward neural network is proposed to evaluate the efficiency and productivity of large-scale data sets with negative values in contrast to the corresponding DEA method. Results indicate that the proposed network has some computational advantages over the corresponding DEA models; therefore, it can be considered as a useful tool for measuring the efficiency of DMUs with (large-scale) negative data.

Fibre impairment compensation using artificial neural network equalizer for high-capacity coherent optical OFDM signals

We propose an artificial neural network (ANN) equalizer for transmission performance enhancement of coherent optical OFDM (C-OOFDM) signals. The ANN equalizer showed more efficiency in combating both chromatic dispersion (CD) and single-mode fibre (SMF)-induced non-linearities compared to the least mean square (LMS). The equalizer can offer a 1.5 dB improvement in optical signal-to-noise ratio (OSNR) compared to LMS algorithm for 40 Gbit/s C-OOFDM signals when considering only CD. It is also revealed that ANN can double the transmission distance up to 320 km of SMF compared to the case of LMS, providing a nonlinearity tolerance improvement of ∼0.7 dB OSNR.

An artificial neural network stratifies the risks of reintervention and mortality after endovascular aneurysm repair:a retrospective observational study

Background Lifelong surveillance after endovascular repair (EVAR) of abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA) is considered mandatory to detect potentially life-threatening endograft complications. A minority of patients require reintervention but cannot be predictively identified by existing methods. This study aimed to improve the prediction of endograft complications and mortality, through the application of machine-learning techniques. Methods Patients undergoing EVAR at 2 centres were studied from 2004-2010. Pre-operative aneurysm morphology was quantified and endograft complications were recorded up to 5 years following surgery. An artificial neural networks (ANN) approach was used to predict whether patients would be at low- or high-risk of endograft complications (aortic/limb) or mortality. Centre 1 data were used for training and centre 2 data for validation. ANN performance was assessed by Kaplan-Meier analysis to compare the incidence of aortic complications, limb complications, and mortality; in patients predicted to be low-risk, versus those predicted to be high-risk. Results 761 patients aged 75 +/- 7 years underwent EVAR. Mean follow-up was 36+/- 20 months. An ANN was created from morphological features including angulation/length/areas/diameters/ volume/tortuosity of the aneurysm neck/sac/iliac segments. ANN models predicted endograft complications and mortality with excellent discrimination between a low-risk and high-risk group. In external validation, the 5-year rates of freedom from aortic complications, limb complications and mortality were 95.9% vs 67.9%; 99.3% vs 92.0%; and 87.9% vs 79.3% respectively (p0.001) Conclusion This study presents ANN models that stratify the 5-year risk of endograft complications or mortality using routinely available pre-operative data.