The planning and management of health for development:a model for Zimbabwe

In this thesis, I view the historical background of Zimbabwe to show the patterns of traditional life that existed prior to settlerism. The form, nature, pace and impact of settlerism and colonialism up to the time of independence are also discussed to show how they affected the health of the population and the pace of development of the country. The political, social and economic underdevelopment of the African people that occurred in Zimbabwe prior to independence was a result of deliberate, politically motivated and controlled policy initiatives. These led to inequatable, inadequate, inappropriate and inaccessible health care provision. It is submitted that since it was the politics that determined the pace of underdevelopment, it must be the politics that must be at the forefront of the development strategy adopted. In the face of the amed conflict that existed in Zimbabwe, existing frameworks of analyses are shown to be inadequate for planning purposes because of their inability to provide indications about the stability of future outcomes. The Metagame technique of analysis of options is proposed as a methology that can be applied in such situations. It rejects deterministic predicative models as misleading and advocates an interactive model based on objective and subjective valuation of human behaviour. In conclusion, the search for stable outcomes rather than optimal and best solutions strategies is advocated in decision making in organisations of all sizes.

Development of a sediment yield model for South East Ghana in the regions around Lake Volta

Soil erosion is one of the most pressing issues facing developing countries. The need for soil erosion assessment is paramount as a successful and productive agricultural base is necessary for economic growth and stability. In Ghana, a country with an expanding population and high potential for economic growth, agriculture is an important resource; however, most of the crop production is restricted to low technology shifting cultivation agriculture. The high intensity seasonal rainfall coincides with the early growing period of many of the crops meaning that plots are very susceptible to erosion, especially on steep sided valleys in the region south of Lake Volta. This research investigated the processes of soil erosion by rainfall with the aim of producing a sediment yield model for a small semi-agricultural catchment in rural Ghana. Various types of modelling techniques were considered to discover those most applicable to the sub-tropical environment of Southern Ghana. Once an appropriate model had been developed and calibrated, the aim was to look at how to enable the scaling up of the model using sub-catchments to calculate sedimentation rates of Lake Volta. An experimental catchment was located in Ghana, south west of Lake Volta, where data on rainstorms and the associated streamflow, sediment loads and soil data (moisture content, classification and particle size distribution) was collected to calibrate the model. Additional data was obtained from the Soil Research Institute in Ghana to explore calibration of the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE, Wischmeier and Smith, 1978) for Ghanaian soils and environment. It was shown that the USLE could be successfully converted to provide meaningful soil loss estimates in the Ghanaian environment. However, due to experimental difficulties, the proposed theory and methodology of the sediment yield model could only be tested in principle. Future work may include validation of the model and subsequent scaling up to estimate sedimentation rates in Lake Volta.

The development of an in vivo model of drug-induced terminal differentiation of Leukaemic cells

The technique of growing human leukaemic cells in diffusion chambers was developed to enable chemicals to be assessed for their ability to induce terminal differentiation. HL-60 promyelocytic leukaemia cell growth, in a lucite chamber with a Millipore filter, was optimised by use of a lateral incision site. Chambers were constructed using 0.45um filters and contained 150ul of serum-free HL-60 cells at a density of 1x106 cells/ml. The chambers were implanted into CBA/Ca mice and spontaneous terminal differentiation of the cells to granulocytes was prevented by the use of serum-free medium. Under these conditions there was an initial growth lag of 72 hours and a logarithmic phase of growth for 96 hours; the cell number reached a plateau after 168 hours of culture in vivo. The amount of drug in the plasma of the animal and in chambers that had been implanted for 5 days, was determined after a single ip injection of equitoxic doses of N-methylformamide, N-ethylformamide, tetramethylurea, N-dibutylformamide, N-tetramethylbutylformamide and hexamethylenebisacetamide. Concentrations of both TMU and HMBA were obtained in the plasma and in the chamber which were pharmacologically effective for the induction of differentiation of HL-60 cells in vitro, that is 12mM TMU and 5mM HMBA. A 4 day regime of treatment of animals implanted with chambers demonstrated that TMU and HMBA induced terminal differentiation of 50% and 35%, respectively, of the implanted HL-60 cells to granulocyte-like cells, assessed by measurement of functional and biochemical markers of maturity. None of the other agents attained concentrations in the plasma that were pharmacologically effective for the induction of differentiation of the cells in vitro and were unable to induce the terminal differentiation of the cells in vivo.

Development of a conceptual model of the soil-moisture-plant sub-system of the hydrological cycle

The soil-plant-moisture subsystem is an important component of the hydrological cycle. Over the last 20 or so years a number of computer models of varying complexity have represented this subsystem with differing degrees of success. The aim of this present work has been to improve and extend an existing model. The new model is less site specific thus allowing for the simulation of a wide range of soil types and profiles. Several processes, not included in the original model, are simulated by the inclusion of new algorithms, including: macropore flow; hysteresis and plant growth. Changes have also been made to the infiltration, water uptake and water flow algorithms. Using field data from various sources, regression equations have been derived which relate parameters in the suction-conductivity-moisture content relationships to easily measured soil properties such as particle-size distribution data. Independent tests have been performed on laboratory data produced by Hedges (1989). The parameters found by regression for the suction relationships were then used in equations describing the infiltration and macropore processes. An extensive literature review produced a new model for calculating plant growth from actual transpiration, which was itself partly determined by the root densities and leaf area indices derived by the plant growth model. The new infiltration model uses intensity/duration curves to disaggregate daily rainfall inputs into hourly amounts. The final model has been calibrated and tested against field data, and its performance compared to that of the original model. Simulations have also been carried out to investigate the effects of various parameters on infiltration, macropore flow, actual transpiration and plant growth. Qualitatively comparisons have been made between these results and data given in the literature.

Development of a multicellular co-culture model of normal and cystic fibrosis human airways in vitro

Cystic fibrosis (CF) is the most common lethal inherited disease among Caucasians and arises due to mutations in a chloride channel, called cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator. A hallmark of this disease is the chronic bacterial infection of the airways, which is usually, associated with pathogens such as Pseudomonas aeruginosa, S. aureus and recently becoming more prominent, B. cepacia. The excessive inflammatory response, which leads to irreversible lung damage, will in the long term lead to mortality of the patient at around the age of 40 years. Understanding the pathogenesis of CF currently relies on animal models, such as those employing genetically-modified mice, and on single cell culture models, which are grown either as polarised or non-polarised epithelium in vitro. Whilst these approaches partially enable the study of disease progression in CF, both types of models have inherent limitations. The overall aim of this thesis was to establish a multicellular co-culture model of normal and CF human airways in vitro, which helps to partially overcome these limitations and permits analysis of cell-to-cell communication in the airways. These models could then be used to examine the co-ordinated response of the airways to infection with relevant pathogens in order to validate this approach over animals/single cell models. Therefore epithelial cell lines of non-CF and CF background were employed in a co-culture model together with human pulmonary fibroblasts. Co-cultures were grown on collagen-coated permeable supports at air-liquid interface to promote epithelial cell differentiation. The models were characterised and essential features for investigating CF infections and inflammatory responses were investigated and analysed. A pseudostratified like epithelial cell layer was established at air liquid interface (ALI) of mono-and co-cultures and cell layer integrity was verified by tight junction (TJ) staining and transepithelial resistance measurements (TER). Mono- and co-cultures were also found to secrete the airway mucin MUC5AC. Influence of bacterial infections was found to be most challenging when intact S. aureus, B. cepacia and P. aeruginosa were used. CF mono- and co-cultures were found to mimic the hyperinflammatory state found in CF, which was confirmed by analysing IL-8 secretions of these models. These co-culture models will help to elucidate the role fibroblasts play in the inflammatory response to bacteria and will provide a useful testing platform to further investigate the dysregulated airway responses seen in CF.

The development and stability analysis of a nonlinear growth model for microorganisms

A nonlinear dynamic model of microbial growth is established based on the theories of the diffusion response of thermodynamics and the chemotactic response of biology. Except for the two traditional variables, i.e. the density of bacteria and the concentration of attractant, the pH value, a crucial influencing factor to the microbial growth, is also considered in this model. The pH effect on the microbial growth is taken as a Gaussian function G0e-(f- fc)2/G1, where G0, G1 and fc are constants, f represents the pH value and fc represents the critical pH value that best fits for microbial growth. To study the effects of the reproduction rate of the bacteria and the pH value on the stability of the system, three parameters a, G0 and G1 are studied in detail, where a denotes the reproduction rate of the bacteria, G0 denotes the impacting intensity of the pH value to microbial growth and G1 denotes the bacterial adaptability to the pH value. When the effect of the pH value of the solution which microorganisms live in is ignored in the governing equations of the model, the microbial system is more stable with larger a. When the effect of the bacterial chemotaxis is ignored, the microbial system is more stable with the larger G1 and more unstable with the larger G0 for f0 > fc. However, the stability of the microbial system is almost unaffected by the variation G0 and G1 and it is always stable for f0 < fc under the assumed conditions in this paper. In the whole system model, it is more unstable with larger G1 and more stable with larger G0 for f0 < fc. The system is more stable with larger G1 and more unstable with larger G0 for f0 > fc. However, the system is more unstable with larger a for f0 < fc and the stability of the system is almost unaffected by a for f0 > fc. The results obtained in this study provide a biophysical insight into the understanding of the growth and stability behavior of microorganisms.

Knowledge engineering for mental-health risk assessment and decision support

Mental-health risk assessment practice in the UK is mainly paper-based, with little standardisation in the tools that are used across the Services. The tools that are available tend to rely on minimal sets of items and unsophisticated scoring methods to identify at-risk individuals. This means the reasoning by which an outcome has been determined remains uncertain. Consequently, there is little provision for: including the patient as an active party in the assessment process, identifying underlying causes of risk, and eecting shared decision-making. This thesis develops a tool-chain for the formulation and deployment of a computerised clinical decision support system for mental-health risk assessment. The resultant tool, GRiST, will be based on consensual domain expert knowledge that will be validated as part of the research, and will incorporate a proven psychological model of classication for risk computation. GRiST will have an ambitious remit of being a platform that can be used over the Internet, by both the clinician and the layperson, in multiple settings, and in the assessment of patients with varying demographics. Flexibility will therefore be a guiding principle in the development of the platform, to the extent that GRiST will present an assessment environment that is tailored to the circumstances in which it nds itself. XML and XSLT will be the key technologies that help deliver this exibility.

Development of a co-culture model of the human lungs for toxicity testing and identification of biomarkers of inhalation toxicity

The airway epithelium is the first point of contact in the lung for inhaled material, including infectious pathogens and particulate matter, and protects against toxicity from these substances by trapping and clearance via the mucociliary escalator, presence of a protective barrier with tight junctions and initiation of a local inflammatory response. The inflammatory response involves recruitment of phagocytic cells to neutralise and remove and invading materials and is oftern modelled using rodents. However, development of valid in vitro airway epithelial models is of great importance due to the restrictions on animal studies for cosmetic compound testing implicit in the 7th amendment to the European Union Cosmetics Directive. Further, rodent innate immune responses have fundamental differences to human. Pulmonary endothelial cells and leukocytes are also involved in the innate response initiated during pulmonary inflammation. Co-culture models of the airways, in particular where epithelial cells are cultured at air liquid interface with the presence of tight junctions and differentiated mucociliary cells, offer a solution to this problem. Ideally validated models will allow for detection of early biomarkers of response to exposure and investigation into inflammatory response during exposure. This thesis describes the approaches taken towards developing an in vitro epithelial/endothelial cell model of the human airways and identification biomarkers of response to exposure to xenobiotics. The model comprised normal human primary microvascular endothelial cells and the bronchial epithelial cell line BEAS-2B or normal human bronchial epithelial cells. BEAS-2B were chosen as their characterisation at air liquid interface is limited but they are robust in culture, thereby predicted to provide a more reliable test system. Proteomics analysis was undertaken on challenged cells to investigate biomarkers of exposure. BEAS-2B morphology was characterised at air liquid interface compared with normal human bronchial epithelial cells. The results indicate that BEAS-2B cells at an air liquid interface form tight junctions as shown by expression of the tight junction protein zonula occludens-1. To this author’s knowledge this is the first time this result has been reported. The inflammatory response of BEAS-2B (measured as secretion of the inflammatory mediators interleukin-8 and -6) air liquid interface mono-cultures to Escherichia coli lipopolysaccharide or particulate matter (fine and ultrafine titanium dioxide) was comparable to published data for epithelial cells. Cells were also exposed to polymers of “commercial interest” which were in the nanoparticle range (and referred to particles hereafter). BEAS-2B mono-cultures showed an increased secretion of inflammatory mediators after challenge. Inclusion of microvascular endothelial cells resulted in protection against LPS- and particle- induced epithelial toxicity, measured as cell viability and inflammatory response, indicating the importance of co-cultures for investigations into toxicity. Two-dimensional proteomic analysis of lysates from particle-challenged cells failed to identify biomarkers of toxicity due to assay interference and experimental variability. Separately, decreased plasma concentrations of serine protease inhibitors, and the negative acute phase proteins transthyretin, histidine-rich glycoprotein and alpha2-HS glycoprotein were identified as potential biomarkers of methyl methacrylate/ethyl methacrylate/butylacrylate treatment in rats.

Methodology for development of a physiological model incorporating CYP3A and P-glycoprotein for the prediction of intestinal drug absorption

The small intestine poses a major barrier to the efficient absorption of orally administered therapeutics. Intestinal epithelial cells are an extremely important site for extrahepatic clearance, primarily due to prominent P-glycoprotein-mediated active efflux and the presence of cytochrome P450s. We describe a physiologically based pharmacokinetic model which incorporates geometric variations, pH alterations and descriptions of the abundance and distribution of cytochrome 3A and P-glycoprotein along the length of the small intestine. Simulations using preclinical in vitro data for model drugs were performed to establish the influence of P-glycoprotein efflux, cytochrome 3A metabolism and passive permeability on drug available for absorption within the enterocytes. The fraction of drug escaping the enterocyte (F(G)) for 10 cytochrome 3A substrates with a range of intrinsic metabolic clearances were simulated. Following incorporation of P-glycoprotein in vitro efflux ratios all predicted F(G) values were within 20% of observed in vivo F(G). The presence of P-glycoprotein increased the level of cytochrome 3A drug metabolism by up to 12-fold in the distal intestine. F(G) was highly sensitive to changes in intrinsic metabolic clearance but less sensitive to changes in intestinal drug permeability. The model will be valuable for quantifying aspects of intestinal drug absorption and distribution.

Effects of lithium and valproic acid on gene expression and phenotypic markers in an NT2 neurosphere model of neural development

Mood stabilising drugs such as lithium (LiCl) and valproic acid (VPA) are the first line agents for treating conditions such as Bipolar disorder and Epilepsy. However, these drugs have potential developmental effects that are not fully understood. This study explores the use of a simple human neurosphere-based in vitro model to characterise the pharmacological and toxicological effects of LiCl and VPA using gene expression changes linked to phenotypic alterations in cells. Treatment with VPA and LiCl resulted in the differential expression of 331 and 164 genes respectively. In the subset of VPA targeted genes, 114 were downregulated whilst 217 genes were upregulated. In the subset of LiCl targeted genes, 73 were downregulated and 91 were upregulated. Gene ontology (GO) term enrichment analysis was used to highlight the most relevant GO terms associated with a given gene list following toxin exposure. In addition, in order to phenotypically anchor the gene expression data, changes in the heterogeneity of cell subtype populations and cell cycle phase were monitored using flow cytometry. Whilst LiCl exposure did not significantly alter the proportion of cells expressing markers for stem cells/undifferentiated cells (Oct4, SSEA4), neurons (Neurofilament M), astrocytes (GFAP) or cell cycle phase, the drug caused a 1.4-fold increase in total cell number. In contrast, exposure to VPA resulted in significant upregulation of Oct4, SSEA, Neurofilament M and GFAP with significant decreases in both G2/M phase cells and cell number. This neurosphere model might provide the basis of a human-based cellular approach for the regulatory exploration of developmental impact of potential toxic chemicals.

Genie:supporting the model driven development of reflective, component-based adaptive systems

Engineering adaptive software is an increasingly complex task. Here, we demonstrate Genie, a tool that supports the modelling, generation, and operation of highly reconfigurable, component-based systems. We showcase how Genie is used in two case-studies: i) the development and operation of an adaptive flood warning system, and ii) a service discovery application. In this context, adaptation is enabled by the Gridkit reflective middleware platform.

The development of a computer simulation model of the interaction between the supply and usage of major components in car assembly you use in stock control

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The development and application of an interactive material requirements planning model

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Developing a probabilistic graphical structure from a model of mental-health clinical risk expertise

This paper explores the process of developing a principled approach for translating a model of mental-health risk expertise into a probabilistic graphical structure. The Galatean Risk Screening Tool [1] is a psychological model for mental health risk assessment based on fuzzy sets. This paper details how the knowledge encapsulated in the psychological model was used to develop the structure of the probability graph by exploiting the semantics of the clinical expertise. These semantics are formalised by a detailed specification for an XML structure used to represent the expertise. The component parts were then mapped to equivalent probabilistic graphical structures such as Bayesian Belief Nets and Markov Random Fields to produce a composite chain graph that provides a probabilistic classification of risk expertise to complement the expert clinical judgements. © Springer-Verlag 2010.