31 resultados para inflation and recession


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The Report of the Robens Committee (1972), the Health and Safety at Work Act (1974) and the Safety Representatives and Safety Committees Regulations (1977) provide the framework within which this study of certain aspects of health and safety is carried out. The philosophy of self-regulation is considered and its development is set within an historical and an industrial relations perspective. The research uses a case study approach to examine the effectiveness of self-regulation in health and safety in a public sector organisation. Within this approach, methodological triangulation employs the techniques of interviews, questionnaires, observation and documentary analysis. The work is based in four departments of a Scottish Local Authority and particular attention is given to three of the main 'agents' of self-regulation - safety representatives, supervisors and safety committees and their interactions, strategies and effectiveness. A behavioural approach is taken in considering the attitudes, values, motives and interactions of safety representatives and management. Major internal and external factors, which interact and which influence the effectiveness of joint self-regulation of health and safety, are identified. It is emphasised that an organisation cannot be studied without consideration of the context within which it operates both locally and in the wider environment. One of these factors, organisational structure, is described as bureaucratic and the model of a Representative Bureaucracy described by Gouldner (1954) is compared with findings from the present study. An attempt is made to ascertain how closely the Local Authority fits Gouldner's model. This research contributes both to knowledge and to theory in the subject area by providing an in-depth study of self-regulation in a public sector organisation, which when compared with such studies as those of Beaumont (1980, 1981, 1982) highlights some of the differences between the public and private sectors. Both empirical data and hypothetical models are used to provide description and explanation of the operation of the health and safety system in the Local Authority. As data were collected during a dynamic period in economic, political and social terms, the research discusses some of the effects of the current economic recession upon safety organisation.

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The world food crisis, Britain's reliance on imported food and feedstuffs and balance of payments difficulties were some of the factors which lent weight to the call for increased self-sufficiency in Britain's agriculture in the 1970s. This project considers two main areas: an investigation of the impact of radical agricultural change, designed to increase self-sufficiency, on the balance of payments; and, an appraisal of the potential role of the food industry within a radically different food system. The study proceeded by: an examination of the principles of agricultural policy and its development in Britain; an overview of the mechanism and meaning of the balance of payments; a consideration of the debate on agricultural import saving; the construction of radical agricultural strategies; the estimation of effects of the strategies, particularly to the balance of. payments; the role of the food industry and possible innovations within the strategies; a case study of textured vegetable proteins; and, the wider implications of implementation of radical agricultural alternatives. Two strategies were considered: a vegan system, involving no livestock; and, an intermediate system, including some livestock and dairy cattle. The study concludes that although agricultural change could in principle make a contribution to the balance of payments, implementation of agricultural change cannot be justified for this purpose alone. First, balance of payments problems can be solved by more appropriate methods. Second, the UK' s balance of payments problem has disappeared for the time being owing to North Sea oil and economic recession. Third, the political and social consequences of the changes investigated would be unacceptable. Progress in UK food policy is likely to be in the form of an integrated food and health policy.

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This thesis is based upon a case study of the adoption of digital, electronic, microprocessor-based control systems by Albright & Wilson Limited - a UK chemical producer. It offers an explanation of the company's changing technology policy between 1978 and 1981, by examining its past development, internal features and industrial environment. Part One of the thesis gives an industry-level analysis which relates the development of process control technology to changes in the economic requirements of production . The rapid diffusion of microcomputers and other microelectronic equipment in the chemical industry is found to be a response to general need to raise the efficiency of all processes, imposed by the economic recession following 1973. Part Two examines the impaot of these technical and eoonomic ohanges upon Albright & Wilson Limited. The company's slowness in adopting new control technology is explained by its long history in which trends are identified whlich produced theconservatism of the 1970s. By contrast, a study of Tenneco Incorporated, a much more successful adoptor of automating technology, is offered with an analysis of the new technology policy of adoption of such equipment which it imposed upon Albright & Wilson, following the latter's takeover by Tenneco in 1978. Some indications of the consequences by this new policy of widespread adoptions of microprocessor-based control equipment are derived from a study of the first Albright & Wilson plant to use such equipment. The thesis concludes that companies which fail to adopt rapidly the new control technology may not survive in the recessionary environment, the long- established British companies may lack the flexibility to make such necessary changes and that multi-national companies may have an important role jn the planned transfer and adoption of new production technology through their subsidiaries in the UK.

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Marketing Strategy and Competitive Positioning 5e deals with the process of developing and implementing a marketing strategy. The book focuses on competitive positioning at the heart of marketing strategy and includes in-depth discussion of the processes used in marketing to achieve competitive advantage. The book is primarily about creating and sustaining superior performance in the marketplace. It focuses on the two central issues in marketing strategy formulation – the identification of target markets and the creation of a differential advantage. In doing that, it recognises the emergence of new potential target markets born of the recession and increased concern for climate change; and it examines ways in which firms can differentiate their offerings through the recognition of environmental and social concerns.

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This paper provides the most fully comprehensive evidence to date on whether or not monetary aggregates are valuable for forecasting US inflation in the early to mid 2000s. We explore a wide range of different definitions of money, including different methods of aggregation and different collections of included monetary assets. In our forecasting experiment we use two non-linear techniques, namely, recurrent neural networks and kernel recursive least squares regression - techniques that are new to macroeconomics. Recurrent neural networks operate with potentially unbounded input memory, while the kernel regression technique is a finite memory predictor. The two methodologies compete to find the best fitting US inflation forecasting models and are then compared to forecasts from a naive random walk model. The best models were non-linear autoregressive models based on kernel methods. Our findings do not provide much support for the usefulness of monetary aggregates in forecasting inflation.

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Purpose – This paper aims to provide a critical analysis of UK Government policy in respect of recent moves to attract young people into engineering. Drawing together UK and EU policy literature, the paper considers why young people fail to look at engineering positively. Design/methodology/approach – Drawing together UK policy, practitioner and academic-related literature the paper critically considers the various factors influencing young people's decision-making processes in respect of entering the engineering profession. A conceptual framework providing a diagrammatic representation of the “push” and “pull” factors impacting young people at pre-university level is given. Findings – The discussion argues that higher education in general has a responsibility to assist young people overcome negative stereotypical views in respect of engineering education. Universities are in the business of building human capability ethically and sustainably. As such they hold a duty of care towards the next generation. From an engineering education perspective, the major challenge is to present a relevant and sustainable learning experience that will equip students with the necessary skills and competencies for a lifelong career in engineering. This may be achieved by promoting transferable skills and competencies or by the introduction of a capabilities-driven curriculum which brings together generic and engineering skills and abilities. Social implications – In identifying the push/pull factors impacting young people's decisions to study engineering, this paper considers why, at a time of global recession, young people should select to study the required subjects of mathematics, science and technology necessary to study for a degree in engineering. The paper identifies the long-term social benefits of increasing the number of young people studying engineering. Originality/value – In bringing together pedagogy and policy within an engineering framework, the paper adds to current debates in engineering education providing a distinctive look at what seems to be a recurring problem – the failure to attract young people into engineering.

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Bailey D. and Berkeley N. Regional responses to recession: the role of the West Midlands Regional Taskforce, Regional Studies. Regional taskforces were set up across the English regions in late 2008 in response to the most severe recession since the Second World War. This paper examines the role of one such body, the West Midlands Regional Taskforce, as an example of regional response to recession, and offers potential lessons for the future in dealing with such situations. In so doing it reflects on the contested concept of regional 'resilience' and its relevance for policy actions at the regional level. Understanding how the region responded in this way could help in maintaining a 'permanent capacity' to deal with shocks, especially in the context of the abolition of regional development agencies (RDAs) in England from 2012 and their replacement with local enterprise partnerships (LEPs). © 2014 © 2014 The Author(s). Published by Taylor & Francis.

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These case studies from CIMA highlight the need to embed risk management within more easily understood behaviours, consistent with the overall organisational culture. In each case, some form of internal audit team provides either an oversight function or acts as an expert link in that feedback loop. Frontline staff, managers and specialists should be completely aligned on risk, in part just to ensure that there is a consistency of approach. They should understand instinctively that good performance includes good risk management. Tesco has continued to thrive during the recession and remains a robust and efficient group of businesses despite the emergence of potential threats around consumer spending and the supply chain. RBS, by contrast, has suffered catastrophic and very public failures of risk management despite a large in-house function and stiff regulation of risk controls. Birmingham City Council, like all local authorities, is adapting to more commercial modes of operation and is facing diverse threats and opportunities emerging as a result of social change. And DCMS, like many other public sector organisations, has to handle an incredibly complex network of delivery partners within the context of a relatively recent overhaul of central government risk management processes. Key Findings: •Risk management is no longer solely a financial discipline, nor is it simply a concern for the internal control function. •Where organisations retain a discrete risk management cadre – often specialists at monitoring and evaluating a range of risks – their success is dependent on embedding risk awareness in the wider culture of the enterprise. •Risk management is most successful when it is explicitly linked to operational performance. •Clear leadership, specific goals, excellent influencing skills and open-mindedness to potential threats and opportunities are essential for effective risk management. •Bureaucratic processes and systems can hamper good risk management – either as a result of a ‘box-ticking mentality’ or because managers and staff believe they do not need to consider risk themselves.

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We estimate the central bank policy preferences for the European Monetary Union and for the UK. In doing so, we extend the theoretical framework suggested by Cecchetti etal. (TheManchesterSchool, Vol. 70 (2002), pp. 596-618), by assuming that policy preferences change across different regimes. Our empirical results suggest that the weight that policy makers put on inflation is typically profound. Furthermore, it appears that volatility shifts of the economic disturbances are the main factor, which generates variation in policy preferences.

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Convergence has been a popular theme in applied economics since the seminal papers of Barro (1991) and Barro and Sala-i-Martin (1992). The very notion of convergence quickly becomes problematic from an academic viewpoint however when we try and formalise a framework to think about these issues. In the light of the abundance of available convergence concepts, it would be useful to have a more universal framework that encompassed existing concepts as special cases. Moreover, much of the convergence literature has treated the issue as a zero-one outcome. We argue that it is more sensible and useful for policy decision makers and academic researchers to consider also ongoing convergence over time. Assessing the progress of ongoing convergence is one interesting and important means of evaluating whether the Eastern European New Member Countries (NMC) of the European Union (EU) are getting closer to being deemed “ready” to join the European Monetary Union (EMU), that is, fulfilling the Maastricht convergence criteria.

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Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are considered to be the driving engine for employment growth, source of innovation and technological progress. Moreover, the success of small exporters is critical for economic growth and is considered as an important development stage for many SMEs. However, their competitive advantage lies within the firm’s ability to innovate. This thesis contributes to the above literature by examining two main factors believed to promote firm growth namely ‘exporting’ and ‘innovation’ activities. Growing interests on the relationship between exporting, innovation and growth have recently been tackled. However, there remains a gap in literature on the relationship between exporting, innovation and firm growth for SMEs in emerging economies. Previous studies are conducted in developed counties such as UK, Ireland, USA, Germany, and Switzerland, which leaves the gap for those developing countries. Thus, this thesis addresses the gap by examining the importance of innovation and exporting activities in the growth of SMEs in Egypt. It is also the researcher’s intent to recognise the unique contribution of innovation on firm exporting activities covering all sectors. gypt, one of the countries that were tremendously affected by the so-called ‘Arab Spring revolution’, is suffering from slow economic growth, high unemployment and poverty rate. Thus, the government must ensure economic growth and job creation. Programmes to encourage and develop SMEs should be part of inclusive growth strategy. Meanwhile, exporting is regarded as a key factor to help the economy recover from recession and stimulate economic growth. On the other hand, innovation leads to better performance in terms of growth, exporting and productivity. Therefore, SMEs and their exporting and innovation activities should be an integral part of any recovery and growth strategy for the economy. Moreover, Egypt is suffering from the so-called ‘Missing Middle’, which is problematic as medium firms tend to provide better employment growth and productivity. Therefore, more light is to shed on the importance of exporting and innovation in the growth of firms. The research design was quantitative in nature, testing the proposed hypotheses. The study was conducted in 2013 based on questionnaires of 406 Egyptians SMEs. The results of the empirical study suggest that both exporting and innovation activities are important in firm growth. However, the results show that, after controlling for endogeneity, innovation does not affect exporting activities in SMEs.

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Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are considered to be the driving engine for employment growth, source of innovation and technological progress. Moreover, the success of small exporters is critical for economic growth and is considered as an important development stage for many SMEs. However, their competitive advantage lies within the firm’s ability to innovate. This thesis contributes to the above literature by examining two main factors believed to promote firm growth namely ‘exporting’ and ‘innovation’ activities. Growing interests on the relationship between exporting, innovation and growth have recently been tackled. However, there remains a gap in literature on the relationship between exporting, innovation and firm growth for SMEs in emerging economies. Previous studies are conducted in developed counties such as UK, Ireland, USA, Germany, and Switzerland, which leaves the gap for those developing countries. Thus, this thesis addresses the gap by examining the importance of innovation and exporting activities in the growth of SMEs in Egypt. It is also the researcher’s intent to recognise the unique contribution of innovation on firm exporting activities covering all sectors. Egypt, one of the countries that were tremendously affected by the so-called ‘Arab Spring revolution’, is suffering from slow economic growth, high unemployment and poverty rate. Thus, the government must ensure economic growth and job creation. Programmes to encourage and develop SMEs should be part of inclusive growth strategy. Meanwhile, exporting is regarded as a key factor to help the economy recover from recession and stimulate economic growth. On the other hand, innovation leads to better performance in terms of growth, exporting and productivity. Therefore, SMEs and their exporting and innovation activities should be an integral part of any recovery and growth strategy for the economy. Moreover, Egypt is suffering from the so-called ‘Missing Middle’, which is problematic as medium firms tend to provide better employment growth and productivity. Therefore, more light is to shed on the importance of exporting and innovation in the growth of firms. The research design was quantitative in nature, testing the proposed hypotheses. The study was conducted in 2013 based on questionnaires of 406 Egyptians SMEs. The results of the empirical study suggest that both exporting and innovation activities are important in firm growth. However, the results show that, after controlling for endogeneity, innovation does not affect exporting activities in SMEs.

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This paper provides the most fully comprehensive evidence to date on whether or not monetary aggregates are valuable for forecasting US inflation in the early to mid 2000s. We explore a wide range of different definitions of money, including different methods of aggregation and different collections of included monetary assets. In our forecasting experiment we use two nonlinear techniques, namely, recurrent neural networks and kernel recursive least squares regressiontechniques that are new to macroeconomics. Recurrent neural networks operate with potentially unbounded input memory, while the kernel regression technique is a finite memory predictor. The two methodologies compete to find the best fitting US inflation forecasting models and are then compared to forecasts from a nave random walk model. The best models were nonlinear autoregressive models based on kernel methods. Our findings do not provide much support for the usefulness of monetary aggregates in forecasting inflation. Beyond its economic findings, our study is in the tradition of physicists' long-standing interest in the interconnections among statistical mechanics, neural networks, and related nonparametric statistical methods, and suggests potential avenues of extension for such studies. © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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This paper demonstrates a mechanism whereby rules can be extracted from a feedforward neural network trained to characterize the inflation "pass-through" problem in American monetary policy, defined as the relationship between changes in the growth rate(s) of individual commodities and the economy-wide rate of growth of consumer prices. Monthly price data are encoded and used to train a group of candidate connectionist architectures. One candidate is selected for rule extraction, using a custom decompositional extraction algorithm that generates rules in human-readable and machine-executable form. Rule and network accuracy are compared, and comments are made on the relationships expressed within the discovered rules. The types of discovered relationships could be used to guide monetary policy decisions.