60 resultados para forecasting, planning and control
Resumo:
Initially this paper asks two questions: In order to create and sustain competitive advantage through collaborative systems WHAT should be managed? and HOW should it be managed? It introduces the competitive business structure and reviews some of the global trends in manufacturing and business, which leads to focus on manage processes, value propositions and extended business processes. It then goes on to develop a model of the collaborative architecture for extended enterprises and demonstrates the validity of this architecture through a case study. It concludes that, in order to create and sustain competitive advantage, collaborative systems should facilitate the management of: the collaborative architecture of the extended enterprise; the extended business processes and the value proposition for each extended enterprise through a meta level management process. It also identifies areas for further research, such as better understanding of: the exact nature and interaction of multiple strategies within an enterprise; how to manage people/teams working along extended business processes; and the nature and prerequisites of the manage processes.
Resumo:
Linear models reach their limitations in applications with nonlinearities in the data. In this paper new empirical evidence is provided on the relative Euro inflation forecasting performance of linear and non-linear models. The well established and widely used univariate ARIMA and multivariate VAR models are used as linear forecasting models whereas neural networks (NN) are used as non-linear forecasting models. It is endeavoured to keep the level of subjectivity in the NN building process to a minimum in an attempt to exploit the full potentials of the NN. It is also investigated whether the historically poor performance of the theoretically superior measure of the monetary services flow, Divisia, relative to the traditional Simple Sum measure could be attributed to a certain extent to the evaluation of these indices within a linear framework. Results obtained suggest that non-linear models provide better within-sample and out-of-sample forecasts and linear models are simply a subset of them. The Divisia index also outperforms the Simple Sum index when evaluated in a non-linear framework. © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group Ltd.
Resumo:
Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to show how QFD can be used as part of a structured planning and analysis framework for micro-sized enterprises to build-up their e-business capabilities. Design/methodology/approach - This case study has been produced using a new framework which integrates the balanced scorecard, value chain and quality function deployment techniques into an integrated framework known as the E-Business Planning and Analysis Framework (E-PAF). It has been produced using an action research approach. Findings - A new framework with a supporting case study is provided. This case study has demonstrated that the framework can be applied successfully to micro-sized enterprises (those with less than ten employees) to successfully plan new strategic and technical developments. This will enhance the online service that the company is able to provide. Research limitations/implications - This paper presents a single case study. The technical recommendations are currently being implemented. Originality/value - Such analytical techniques are most commonly associated with large organisations, and are not specifically associated with e-business planning. This paper provides a new framework that will be of general applicability to other similarly sized enterprises that are looking to improve e-business capabilities. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
Resumo:
While the retrieval of existing designs to prevent unnecessary duplication of parts is a recognised strategy in the control of design costs the available techniques to achieve this, even in product data management systems, are limited in performance or require large resources. A novel system has been developed based on a new version of an existing coding system (CAMAC) that allows automatic coding of engineering drawings and their subsequent retrieval using a drawing of the desired component as the input. The ability to find designs using a detail drawing rather than textual descriptions is a significant achievement in itself. Previous testing of the system has demonstrated this capability but if a means could be found to find parts from a simple sketch then its practical application would be much more effective. This paper describes the development and testing of such a search capability using a database of over 3000 engineering components.
Resumo:
Purpose – The purpose of the paper is to use a case study setting involving the implementation of an enterprise resource planning (ERP) system to expose and analyze the conflicts in the characterizations of the post bureaucratic organisation (PBO) in the literature. ERP implementations are often accompanied by increasing levels of stress in organizations that place pressures on organizational relationships and structures. Additionally, ERPs are regarded as introducing their own techno-logic of centralization, standardization and formalization that provides an apparent contrast to the exhortations about employee empowerment. Design/methodology/approach – A case study of ERP implementation in a medium-sized entity is presented. The paper explores aspects of ERP and PBO from the context of postmodern organization theory. Findings – Some concerns about PBO identified in the literature are reflected in the case situation. For example, there is a commitment to give up private time and work flexibly by some employees. The paper also provides evidence of the way the management team substitute their reliance on a key individual knowledge worker for that of an ERP system and external vendor support. Paradoxically, trust in that same knowledge worker and between core users of the system is essential to enable the implementation of the system. Originality/value – This paper adds empirical insight to a predominantly theoretical literature. The case evidence indicates some conflicting implications in the concurrent adoption of PBO and ERP.
Resumo:
Dyslexia and attentional difficulty have often been linked, but little is known of the nature of the supposed attentional disorder. The Sustained Attention to Response Task (SART: Robertson, Manly, Andrade, Baddeley and Yiend, 1997) was designed as a measure of sustained attention and requires the withholding of responses to rare (one in nine) targets. To investigate the nature of the attentional disorder in dyslexia, this paper reports two studies which examined the performance of teenagers with dyslexia and their age-matched controls on the SART, the squiggle SART (a modification of the SART using novel and unlabellable stimuli rather than digits) and the go-gap-stop test of response inhibition (GGST). Teenagers with dyslexia made significantly more errors than controls on the original SART, but not the squiggle SART. There were no group differences on the GGST. After controlling for speed of reaction time in a sequential multiple regression predicting SART false alarms, false alarms on the GGST accounted for up to 22% extra variance in the control groups (although less on the squiggle SART) but negligible amounts of variance in the dyslexic groups. We interpret the results as reflecting a stimulus recognition automaticity deficit in dyslexia, rather than a sustained attention deficit. Furthermore, results suggest that response inhibition is an important component of performance on the standard SART when stimuli are recognised automatically.
Resumo:
This article extends the debate regarding the relationship between strategic planning and performance. It addresses criticism of previous empirical studies that have largely investigated direct and bi-variate relationships, producing equivocal results. The current study investigates the mediating effects of four types of flexibility on the strategic planning and performance relationship. Flexibility is defined as the extent to which new and alternative decisions are generated and considered in strategic planning, allowing for positive organizational change and adaptation to environmental turbulence. Through investigating simultaneous equations in a structural equation model, we find that two types of flexibility mediate the relationship between strategic planning and financial performance, while the other two types mediate the relationship between strategic planning and non-financial performance. The results are new empirical insights that have not been previously reported.
Resumo:
Patients experience considerable difficulties in making and sustaining health-related lifestyle changes. Many Type 2 diabetes patients struggle to follow disease risk-management advice even when they receive extensive information and support. Drawing on a qualitative study of patients with Type 2 diabetes, the paper uses discourse analysis to examine their accounts about disease causation and disease management, and the implications for how they respond to their condition and health services advice. As it is a multifactorial disease, biomedical discourse around Type 2 diabetes is complex. Patients are encouraged to grasp the complicated message that both cause and medical outcomes related to their condition are partly, but not wholly, within their control. Discursive constructions identified from respondent accounts indicate how these two messages are deployed variously by respondents when accounting for disease causation and management. While these constructions (identified in respondent accounts as 'Up to me' and 'Down to them') are a valuable resource for patients, equally they may be deployed in a selective and detrimental way. We conclude that clear messages from health professionals about effective disease management may help patients to position themselves more effectively in relation to their condition. More importantly, they might serve to hinder the availability of inappropriate and potentially harmful patient positions where patients either relinquish responsibility for disease management or reject all input from health professionals. © The Author 2005. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
From a manufacturing perspective, the efficiency of manufacturing operations (such as process planning and production scheduling) are the key element for enhancing manufacturing competence. Process planning and production scheduling functions have been traditionally treated as two separate activities, and have resulted in a range of inefficiencies. These include infeasible process plans, non-available/overloaded resources, high production costs, long production lead times, and so on. Above all, it is unlikely that the dynamic changes can be efficiently dealt with. Despite much research has been conducted to integrate process planning and production scheduling to generate optimised solutions to improve manufacturing efficiency, there is still a gap to achieve the competence required for the current global competitive market. In this research, the concept of multi-agent system (MAS) is adopted as a means to address the aforementioned gap. A MAS consists of a collection of intelligent autonomous agents able to solve complex problems. These agents possess their individual objectives and interact with each other to fulfil the global goal. This paper describes a novel use of an autonomous agent system to facilitate the integration of process planning and production scheduling functions to cope with unpredictable demands, in terms of uncertainties in product mix and demand pattern. The novelty lies with the currency-based iterative agent bidding mechanism to allow process planning and production scheduling options to be evaluated simultaneously, so as to search for an optimised, cost-effective solution. This agent based system aims to achieve manufacturing competence by means of enhancing the flexibility and agility of manufacturing enterprises.
Resumo:
The integration of a microprocessor and a medium power stepper motor in one control system brings together two quite different disciplines. Various methods of interfacing are examined and the problems involved in both hardware and software manipulation are investigated. Microprocessor open-loop control of the stepper motor is considered. The possible advantages of microprocessor closed-loop control are examined and the development of a system is detailed. The system uses position feedback to initiate each motor step. Results of the dynamic response of the system are presented and its performance discussed. Applications of the static torque characteristic of the stepper motor are considered followed by a review of methods of predicting the characteristic. This shows that accurate results are possible only when the effects of magnetic saturation are avoided or when the machine is available for magnetic circuit tests to be carried out. A new method of predicting the static torque characteristic is explained in detail. The method described uses the machine geometry and the magnetic characteristics of the iron types used in the machine. From this information the permeance of each iron component of the machine is calculated and by using the equivalent magnetic circuit of the machine, the total torque produced is predicted. It is shown how this new method is implemented on a digital computer and how the model may be used to investigate further aspects of the stepper motor in addition to the static torque.
Resumo:
The rapid developments in computer technology have resulted in a widespread use of discrete event dynamic systems (DEDSs). This type of system is complex because it exhibits properties such as concurrency, conflict and non-determinism. It is therefore important to model and analyse such systems before implementation to ensure safe, deadlock free and optimal operation. This thesis investigates current modelling techniques and describes Petri net theory in more detail. It reviews top down, bottom up and hybrid Petri net synthesis techniques that are used to model large systems and introduces on object oriented methodology to enable modelling of larger and more complex systems. Designs obtained by this methodology are modular, easy to understand and allow re-use of designs. Control is the next logical step in the design process. This thesis reviews recent developments in control DEDSs and investigates the use of Petri nets in the design of supervisory controllers. The scheduling of exclusive use of resources is investigated and an efficient Petri net based scheduling algorithm is designed and a re-configurable controller is proposed. To enable the analysis and control of large and complex DEDSs, an object oriented C++ software tool kit was developed and used to implement a Petri net analysis tool, Petri net scheduling and control algorithms. Finally, the methodology was applied to two industrial DEDSs: a prototype can sorting machine developed by Eurotherm Controls Ltd., and a semiconductor testing plant belonging to SGS Thomson Microelectronics Ltd.
Resumo:
Open-loop operatlon of the stepping motor exploits the inherent advantages of the machine. For near optimum operation: in this mode, however, an accurate system model is required to facilitate controller design. Such a model must be comprehensive and take account of the non-linearities inherent in the system. The result is a complex formulation which can be made manageable with a computational aid. A digital simulation of a hybrid type stepping motor and its associated drive circuit is proposed. The simulation is based upon a block diagram model which includes reasonable approximations to the major non-linearities. The simulation is shown to yield accurate performance predictions. The determination of the transfer functions is based upon the consideration of the physical processes involved rather than upon direct input-outout measurements. The effects of eddy currents, saturation, hysteresis, drive circuit characteristics and non-linear torque displacement characteristics are considered and methods of determining transfer functions, which take account of these effects, are offered. The static torque displacement characteristic is considered in detail and a model is proposed which predicts static torque for any combination of phase currents and shaft position. Methods of predicting the characteristic directly from machine geometry are investigated. Drive circuit design for high efficiency operation is considered and a model of a bipolar, bilevel circuit is proposed. The transfers between stator voltage and stator current and between stator current and air gap flux are complicated by the effects of eddy currents, saturation and hysteresis. Frequency response methods, combined with average inductance measurements, are shown to yield reasonable transfer functions. The modelling procedure and subsequent digital simulation is concluded to be a powerful method of non-linear analysis.
Resumo:
Liquid-liquid extraction has long been known as a unit operation that plays an important role in industry. This process is well known for its complexity and sensitivity to operation conditions. This thesis presents an attempt to explore the dynamics and control of this process using a systematic approach and state of the art control system design techniques. The process was studied first experimentally under carefully selected. operation conditions, which resembles the ranges employed practically under stable and efficient conditions. Data were collected at steady state conditions using adequate sampling techniques for the dispersed and continuous phases as well as during the transients of the column with the aid of a computer-based online data logging system and online concentration analysis. A stagewise single stage backflow model was improved to mimic the dynamic operation of the column. The developed model accounts for the variation in hydrodynamics, mass transfer, and physical properties throughout the length of the column. End effects were treated by addition of stages at the column entrances. Two parameters were incorporated in the model namely; mass transfer weight factor to correct for the assumption of no mass transfer in the. settling zones at each stage and the backmixing coefficients to handle the axial dispersion phenomena encountered in the course of column operation. The parameters were estimated by minimizing the differences between the experimental and the model predicted concentration profiles at steady state conditions using non-linear optimisation technique. The estimated values were then correlated as functions of operating parameters and were incorporated in·the model equations. The model equations comprise a stiff differential~algebraic system. This system was solved using the GEAR ODE solver. The calculated concentration profiles were compared to those experimentally measured. A very good agreement of the two profiles was achieved within a percent relative error of ±2.S%. The developed rigorous dynamic model of the extraction column was used to derive linear time-invariant reduced-order models that relate the input variables (agitator speed, solvent feed flowrate and concentration, feed concentration and flowrate) to the output variables (raffinate concentration and extract concentration) using the asymptotic method of system identification. The reduced-order models were shown to be accurate in capturing the dynamic behaviour of the process with a maximum modelling prediction error of I %. The simplicity and accuracy of the derived reduced-order models allow for control system design and analysis of such complicated processes. The extraction column is a typical multivariable process with agitator speed and solvent feed flowrate considered as manipulative variables; raffinate concentration and extract concentration as controlled variables and the feeds concentration and feed flowrate as disturbance variables. The control system design of the extraction process was tackled as multi-loop decentralised SISO (Single Input Single Output) as well as centralised MIMO (Multi-Input Multi-Output) system using both conventional and model-based control techniques such as IMC (Internal Model Control) and MPC (Model Predictive Control). Control performance of each control scheme was. studied in terms of stability, speed of response, sensitivity to modelling errors (robustness), setpoint tracking capabilities and load rejection. For decentralised control, multiple loops were assigned to pair.each manipulated variable with each controlled variable according to the interaction analysis and other pairing criteria such as relative gain array (RGA), singular value analysis (SVD). Loops namely Rotor speed-Raffinate concentration and Solvent flowrate Extract concentration showed weak interaction. Multivariable MPC has shown more effective performance compared to other conventional techniques since it accounts for loops interaction, time delays, and input-output variables constraints.
Resumo:
This thesis reports on the results of case studies in four commercial banks in Nigeria. The study focuses how management accounting and control systems (MCS) operate in the four banks. The study is motivated by the dearth of literature on management accounting practices in the developing world in general and in Nigeria in specific. The case study approach adopted in conducting the research was useful in exploring the dynamics of the MCS in the organisations. Data was gathered from two sources. First, semi-structured interviews were conducted with managers at the head office, regional office and branches of each bank. The participants were selected from different backgrounds and managerial levels to provide broader understanding of the operations of the MCS. Second, various internal and external documents were reviewed to provide supporting evidence for the interview results. New institutional sociology (NIS) provided the theoretical framework to understand the results. NIS provided explanations for how the MCS in the four banks were shaped by diverse external and internal factors. The key factors identified as shaping the operations of the MCS were the need to comply with the regulatory environment (coercive isomorphism), the need to maintain social and cultural support (normative isomorphism) and the need to imitate successful organisations in order to appear legitimate (mimetic isomorphism). The study also examines the interplay between the institutional forces, market forces and infra-organisational power relations. This analysis is necessary to overcome the criticism of NIS that it downplays the role of market forces, agency and intra-organisational relations. The findings of the study have implications for understanding the operations of MCS in the developing world.