Project risk management:a combined analytic hierarchy process and decision tree approach

Time, cost and quality achievements on large-scale construction projects are uncertain because of technological constraints, involvement of many stakeholders, long durations, large capital requirements and improper scope definitions. Projects that are exposed to such an uncertain environment can effectively be managed with the application of risk management throughout the project life cycle. Risk is by nature subjective. However, managing risk subjectively poses the danger of non-achievement of project goals. Moreover, risk analysis of the overall project also poses the danger of developing inappropriate responses. This article demonstrates a quantitative approach to construction risk management through an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and decision tree analysis. The entire project is classified to form a few work packages. With the involvement of project stakeholders, risky work packages are identified. As all the risk factors are identified, their effects are quantified by determining probability (using AHP) and severity (guess estimate). Various alternative responses are generated, listing the cost implications of mitigating the quantified risks. The expected monetary values are derived for each alternative in a decision tree framework and subsequent probability analysis helps to make the right decision in managing risks. In this article, the entire methodology is explained by using a case application of a cross-country petroleum pipeline project in India. The case study demonstrates the project management effectiveness of using AHP and DTA.

Selection and application of risk management tools and techniques for build-operate-transfer projects

Construction projects are risky. However, the characteristics of the risk highly depend on the type of procurement being adopted for managing the project. A build-operate-transfer (BOT) project is recognized as one of the most risky project schemes. There are instances of project failure where a BOT scheme was employed. Ineffective rts are increasingly being managed using various risk management tools and techniques. However, application of those tools depends on the nature of the project, organization's policy, project management strategy, risk attitude of the project team members, and availability of the resources. Understanding of the contents and contexts of BOT projects, together with a thorough understanding of risk management tools and techniques, helps select processes of risk management for effective project implementation in a BOT scheme. This paper studies application of risk management tools and techniques in BOT projects through reviews of relevant literatures and develops a model for selecting risk management process for BOT projects. The application to BOT projects is considered from the viewpoints of the major project participants. Discussion is also made with regard to political risks. This study would contribute to the establishment of a framework for systematic risk management in BOT projects.

Risk management in oil and gas construction projects in Vietnam

Purpose - The purpose of the paper is to the identify risk factors, which affect oil and gas construction projects in Vietnam and derive risk responses. Design/methodology/approach - Questionnaire survey was conducted with the involvement of project executives of PetroVietnam and statistical analysis was carried out in order to identify the major project risks. Subsequently, mitigating measures were derived using informal interviews with the various levels of management of PetroVietnam. Findings - Bureaucratic government system and long project approval procedures, poor design, incompetence of project team, inadequate tendering practices, and late internal approval processes from the owner were identified as major risks. The executives suggested various strategies to mitigate the identified risks. Reforming the government system, effective partnership with foreign collaborators, training project executives, implementing contractor evaluation using multiple criteria decision-making technique, and enhancing authorities of project people were suggested as viable approaches. Practical implications - The improvement measures as derived in this study would improve chances of project success in the oil and gas industry in Vietnam. Originality/value - There are several risk management studies on managing projects in developing countries. However, as risk factors vary considerably across industry and countries, the study of risk management for successful projects in the oil and gas industry in Vietnam is unique and has tremendous importance for effective project management.

Risk management in build-operate-transfer projects

Construction projects are risky. A build-operate-transfer (BOT) project is recognised as one of the most risky project schemes. This scheme has been employed rather frequently in the past few decades, in both developed and developing countries. However, because of its risky nature, there have been failures as well as successes. Risk analysis in an appropriate way is desirable in implementing BOT projects. There are various tools and techniques applicable to risk analysis. The application of these risk analysis tools and techniques (RATTs) to BOT projects depends on an understanding of the contents and contexts of BOT projects, together with a thorough understanding of RATTs. This paper studies key points in their applications through reviews of relevant literatures and discusses the application of RATTs to BOT projects. The application to BOT projects is considered from the viewpoints of the major project participants, i.e. government, lenders and project companies. Discussion is also made with regard to political risks, which are very important in BOT projects. A flow chart has been introduced to select an appropriate tool for risk management in BOT projects. This study contributes to the establishment of a framework for systematic risk management in BOT projects.

Construction risk management:a quantitative approach

Conventional project management techniques are not always sufficient for ensuring time, cost and quality achievement of large-scale construction projects due to complexity in planning and implementation processes. The main reasons for project non-achievement are changes in scope and design, changes in Government policies and regulations, unforeseen inflation) under-estimation and improper estimation. Projects that are exposed to such an uncertain environment can be effectively managed with the application of risk numagement throughout project life cycle. However, the effectiveness of risk management depends on the technique in which the effects of risk factors are analysed and! or quantified. This study proposes Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a multiple attribute decision-making technique as a tool for risk analysis because it can handle subjective as well as objective factors in decision model that are conflicting in nature. This provides a decision support system (DSS) to project managenumt for making the right decision at the right time for ensuring project success in line with organisation policy, project objectives and competitive business environment. The whole methodology is explained through a case study of a cross-country petroleum pipeline project in India and its effectiveness in project1nana.gement is demonstrated.

PCIM:a project control and inhibiting‐factors management model

In construction projects, the aim of project control is to ensure projects finish on time, within budget, and achieve other project objectives. During the last few decades, numerous project control methods have been developed and adopted by project managers in practice. However, many existing methods focus on describing what the processes and tasks of project control are; not on how these tasks should be conducted. There is also a potential gap between principles that underly these methods and project control practice. As a result, time and cost overruns are still common in construction projects, partly attributable to deficiencies of existing project control methods and difficulties in implementing them. This paper describes a new project cost and time control model, the project control and inhibiting factors management (PCIM) model, developed through a study involving extensive interaction with construction practitioners in the UK, which better reflects the real needs of project managers. A set of good practice checklist is also developed to facilitate implementation of the model. © 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.

A combination of cyclone and vert techniques for the management of construction projects

Many planning and control tools, especially network analysis, have been developed in the last four decades. The majority of them were created in military organization to solve the problem of planning and controlling research and development projects. The original version of the network model (i.e. C.P.M/PERT) was transplanted to the construction industry without the consideration of the special nature and environment of construction projects. It suited the purpose of setting up targets and defining objectives, but it failed in satisfying the requirement of detailed planning and control at the site level. Several analytical and heuristic rules based methods were designed and combined with the structure of C.P.M. to eliminate its deficiencies. None of them provides a complete solution to the problem of resource, time and cost control. VERT was designed to deal with new ventures. It is suitable for project evaluation at the development stage. CYCLONE, on the other hand, is concerned with the design and micro-analysis of the production process. This work introduces an extensive critical review of the available planning techniques and addresses the problem of planning for site operation and control. Based on the outline of the nature of site control, this research developed a simulation based network model which combines part of the logics of both VERT and CYCLONE. Several new nodes were designed to model the availability and flow of resources, the overhead and operating cost and special nodes for evaluating time and cost. A large software package is written to handle the input, the simulation process and the output of the model. This package is designed to be used on any microcomputer using MS-DOS operating system. Data from real life projects were used to demonstrate the capability of the technique. Finally, a set of conclusions are drawn regarding the features and limitations of the proposed model, and recommendations for future work are outlined at the end of this thesis.

Decision support for lifecycle planning and risk management of small-scale biomass combined heat and power (bCHP) projects in the UK

Biomass is projected to account for approximately half of the new energy production required to achieve the 2020 primary energy target in the UK. Combined heat and power (CHP) bioenergy systems are not only a highly efficient method of energy conversion, at smaller-scales a significant proportion of the heat produced can be effectively utilised for hot water, space heating or industrial heating purposes. However, there are many barriers to project development and this has greatly inhibited deployment in the UK. Project viability is highly subjective to changes in policy, regulation, the finance market and the low cost incumbent; a high carbon centralised energy system. Unidentified or unmitigated barriers occurring during the project lifecycle may not only negatively impact on the project but could ultimately lead to project failure. The research develops a decision support system (DSS) for small-scale (500 kWe to 10 MWe) biomass combustion CHP project development and risk management in the early stages of a potential project’s lifecycle. By supporting developers in the early stages of project development with financial, scheduling and risk management analysis, the research aims to reduce the barriers identified and streamline decision-making. A fuzzy methodology is also applied throughout the developed DSS to support developers in handling the uncertain or approximate information often held at the early stages of the project lifecycle. The DSS is applied to a case study of a recently failed (2011) small-scale biomass CHP project to demonstrate its applicability and benefits. The application highlights that the proposed development within the case study was not viable. Moreover, further analysis of the possible barriers with the DSS confirmed that some possible modifications to be project could have improved this, such as a possible change of feedstock to a waste or residue, addressing the unnecessary land lease cost or by increasing heat utilisation onsite. This analysis is further supported by a practitioner evaluation survey that confirms the research contribution and objectives are achieved.

Making knowledge management in projects viable

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Management of the civil engineering works of Thomas Telford in the highlands of Scotland

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Implementing aspects of management accounting in a low volume manufacturing engineering concern

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Managing projects in fast track:a case of public sector organisation in India

Completing projects faster than the normal duration is always a challenge to the management of any project, as it often demands many paradigm shifts. Opportunities of globalization, competition from private sectors and multinationals force the management of public sector organizations in the Indian petroleum sector to take various aggressive strategies to maintain their profitability. Constructing infrastructure for handling petroleum products is one of them. Moreover, these projects are required to be completed in faster duration compared to normal schedules to remain competitive, to get faster return on investment, and to give longer project life. However, using conventional tools and techniques of project management, it is impossible to handle the problem of reducing the project duration from a normal period. This study proposes the use of concurrent engineering in managing projects for radically reducing project duration. The phases of the project are accomplished concurrently/simultaneously instead of in a series. The complexities that arise in managing projects are tackled through restructuring project organization, improving management commitment, strengthening project-planning activities, ensuring project quality, managing project risk objectively and integrating project activities through management information systems. These would not only ensure completion of projects in fast track, but also improve project effectiveness in terms of quality, cost effectiveness, team building, etc. and in turn overall productivity of the project organization would improve.

Practically oriented design projects in mechatronics engineering:a case study of design experiences and outcomes

This paper discusses and presents a case study of a practically oriented design project together with a few examples of implemented design projects recently incorporated into an undergraduate system course at the mechatronics engineering department in Ah-Balqa’ Applied University. These projects have had a positive impact on both the department and its graduates. The focus of these projects is the design and implementation of processor-based system. This helps graduate students cross the border between hardware design and software design. Our case study discusses the research methodology adopted for the physical development of the project, the technology used in the project, and the design experiences and outcomes.

Enhanced process verification through re-engineering the manufacturing procedure

In today’s modern manufacturing industry there is an increasing need to improve internal processes to meet diverse client needs. Process re-engineering is an important activity that is well understood by industry but its rate of application within small to medium size enterprises (SME) is less developed. Business pressures shift the focus of SMEs toward winning new projects and contracts rather than developing long-term, sustainable manufacturing processes. Variations in manufacturing processes are inevitable, but the amount of non-conformity often exceeds the acceptable levels. This paper is focused on the re-engineering of the manufacturing and verification procedure for discrete parts production with the aim of enhancing process control and product verification. The ideologies of the ‘Push’ and ‘Pull’ approaches to manufacturing are useful in the context of process re-engineering for data improvement. Currently information is pulled from the market and prominent customers, and manufacturing companies always try to make the right product, by following customer procedures that attempt to verify against specifications. This approach can result in significant quality control challenges. The aim of this paper is to highlight the importance of process re-engineering in product verification in SMEs. Leadership, culture, ownership and process management are among the main attributes required for the successful deployment of process re-engineering. This paper presents the findings from a case study showcasing the application of a modified re-engingeering method for the manufacturing and verification process. The findings from the case study indicate there are several advantages to implementing the re-engineering method outlined in this paper.