Web based expert elicitation of uncertainties in environmental model inputs

When constructing and using environmental models, it is typical that many of the inputs to the models will not be known perfectly. In some cases, it will be possible to make observations, or occasionally physics-based uncertainty propagation, to ascertain the uncertainty on these inputs. However, such observations are often either not available or even possible, and another approach to characterising the uncertainty on the inputs must be sought. Even when observations are available, if the analysis is being carried out within a Bayesian framework then prior distributions will have to be specified. One option for gathering or at least estimating this information is to employ expert elicitation. Expert elicitation is well studied within statistics and psychology and involves the assessment of the beliefs of a group of experts about an uncertain quantity, (for example an input / parameter within a model), typically in terms of obtaining a probability distribution. One of the challenges in expert elicitation is to minimise the biases that might enter into the judgements made by the individual experts, and then to come to a consensus decision within the group of experts. Effort is made in the elicitation exercise to prevent biases clouding the judgements through well-devised questioning schemes. It is also important that, when reaching a consensus, the experts are exposed to the knowledge of the others in the group. Within the FP7 UncertWeb project (http://www.uncertweb.org/), there is a requirement to build a Webbased tool for expert elicitation. In this paper, we discuss some of the issues of building a Web-based elicitation system - both the technological aspects and the statistical and scientific issues. In particular, we demonstrate two tools: a Web-based system for the elicitation of continuous random variables and a system designed to elicit uncertainty about categorical random variables in the setting of landcover classification uncertainty. The first of these examples is a generic tool developed to elicit uncertainty about univariate continuous random variables. It is designed to be used within an application context and extends the existing SHELF method, adding a web interface and access to metadata. The tool is developed so that it can be readily integrated with environmental models exposed as web services. The second example was developed for the TREES-3 initiative which monitors tropical landcover change through ground-truthing at confluence points. It allows experts to validate the accuracy of automated landcover classifications using site-specific imagery and local knowledge. Experts may provide uncertainty information at various levels: from a general rating of their confidence in a site validation to a numerical ranking of the possible landcover types within a segment. A key challenge in the web based setting is the design of the user interface and the method of interacting between the problem owner and the problem experts. We show the workflow of the elicitation tool, and show how we can represent the final elicited distributions and confusion matrices using UncertML, ready for integration into uncertainty enabled workflows.We also show how the metadata associated with the elicitation exercise is captured and can be referenced from the elicited result, providing crucial lineage information and thus traceability in the decision making process.

Continuous chromatographic biochemical reaction-separation

Combined bioreaction separation studies have been carried out for the first time on a moving port semi-continuous counter-current chromatographic reactor-separator (SCCR-S1) consisting of twelve 5.4cm id x 75cm long columns packed with calcium charged cross-linked polystyrene resin (KORELA V07C). The inversion of sucrose to glucose and fructose in the presence of the enzyme invertase and the biochemIcal synthesis of dextran and fructose from sucrose in the presence of the enzyme dextransucrase were investigated. A dilute stream of the appropriate enzyme in deionised water was used as the eluent stream. The effect of switch time, feed concentration, enzyme activity, eluent rate and enzyme to feed concentration ratio on the combined bioreaction-separation were investigated. For the invertase reaction, at 20.77% w/v sucrose feed concentrations complete conversions were achieved. The enzyme usage was 34% of the theoretical enzyme amount needed to convert an equivalent amount of sucrose over the same time period when using a conventional fermenter. The fructose rich (FRP) and glucose rich (GRP) product purities obtained were over 90%. By operating at 35% w/v sucrose feed concentration and employing the product splitting and recycling techniques, the total concentration and purity of the GRP increased from 32% w/v to 4.6% and from 92.3% to 95% respectively. The FRP concentration also increased from 1.82% w/v to 2.88% w/v. A mathematical model was developed for the combined reaction-separation and used to simulate the continuous inversion of sucrose and product separation using the SCCR-S1. In the biosynthesis of dextran studies, 52% conversion of a 2% w/v sucrose concentration feed was achieved. An average dextran molecular weight of 4 millIon was obtained in the dextran rich (DRP) product stream. The enzyme dextransucrase was purifed successfully using centrifugation and ultrafiltration techniques.

A longitudinal study of the diffusion of the ISO/IEC information resource dictionary system standard (IRDS.)

The IRDS standard is an international standard produced by the International Organisation for Standardisation (ISO). In this work the process for producing standards in formal standards organisations, for example the ISO, and in more informal bodies, for example the Object Management Group (OMG), is examined. This thesis examines previous models and classifications of standards. The previous models and classifications are then combined to produce a new classification. The IRDS standard is then placed in a class in the new model as a reference anticipatory standard. Anticipatory standards are standards which are developed ahead of the technology in order to attempt to guide the market. The diffusion of the IRDS is traced over a period of eleven years. The economic conditions which affect the diffusion of standards are examined, particularly the economic conditions which prevail in compatibility markets such as the IT and ICT markets. Additionally the consequences of the introduction of gateway or converter devices into a market where a standard has not yet been established is examined. The IRDS standard did not have an installed base and this hindered its diffusion. The thesis concludes that the IRDS standard was overtaken by new developments such as object oriented technologies and middleware. This was partly because of the slow development process of developing standards in traditional organisations which operate on a consensus basis and partly because the IRDS standard did not have an installed base. Also the rise and proliferation of middleware products resulted in exchange mechanisms becoming dominant rather than repository solutions. The research method used in this work is a longitudinal study of the development and diffusion of the ISO/EEC IRDS standard. The research is regarded as a single case study and follows the interpretative epistemological point of view.

The mechanics of continuous roller bending of plates

This research initiates a study of the mechanics of four roll plate bending and provides a methodology to investigate the process experimentally. To carry out the research a suitable model bender was designed and constructed. The model bender was comprehensively instrumented with ten load cells, three torquemeters and a tachometer. A rudimentary analysis of the four roll pre-bending mode considered the three critical bending operations. The analysis also gave an assessment of the model bender capacity for the design stage. The analysis indicated that an increase in the coefficient of friction in the contact region of the pinch rolls and the plate would reduce the pinch resultant force required to end a plate to a particular bend radius. The mechanisms involved in the four roll plate bending process were investigated and a mathematical model evolved to determine the mechanics of four roll thin plate bending. A theoretical and experimental investigation was conducted for the bending of HP30 aluminium plates in both single and multipass bending modes. The study indicated that the multipass plate bending mechanics of the process varied according to the number of bending passes executed and the step decrement of the anticipated finished bend radius in any two successive passes (i.e. the bending route). Experimental results for single pass bending indicated that the rollers normally exert a higher bending load for the steady-continous bending with the pre-inactive side roll oper?tive. For the pre-bending mode and the steady-continous bending mode with the pre-active side roll operative, the former exerted the higher loads. The single pass results also indicated that the force on the side roll, the torque and power steadily increased as the anticipated bend radius decreased. Theoretical predictions for the plate internal resistance to accomplish finished bend radii of between 2500mm and 500mm for multipass bending HP30 aluminium plates, suggested that there was a certain bending route which would effectively optimise the bender capacity.

The choice of the model in inventory control and the cost of sophistication

This thesis is concerned with the inventory control of items that can be considered independent of one another. The decisions when to order and in what quantity, are the controllable or independent variables in cost expressions which are minimised. The four systems considered are referred to as (Q, R), (nQ,R,T), (M,T) and (M,R,T). Wiith ((Q,R) a fixed quantity Q is ordered each time the order cover (i.e. stock in hand plus on order ) equals or falls below R, the re-order level. With the other three systems reviews are made only at intervals of T. With (nQ,R,T) an order for nQ is placed if on review the inventory cover is less than or equal to R, where n, which is an integer, is chosen at the time so that the new order cover just exceeds R. In (M, T) each order increases the order cover to M. Fnally in (M, R, T) when on review, order cover does not exceed R, enough is ordered to increase it to M. The (Q, R) system is examined at several levels of complexity, so that the theoretical savings in inventory costs obtained with more exact models could be compared with the increases in computational costs. Since the exact model was preferable for the (Q,R) system only exact models were derived for theoretical systems for the other three. Several methods of optimization were tried, but most were found inappropriate for the exact models because of non-convergence. However one method did work for each of the exact models. Demand is considered continuous, and with one exception, the distribution assumed is the normal distribution truncated so that demand is never less than zero. Shortages are assumed to result in backorders, not lost sales. However, the shortage cost is a function of three items, one of which, the backorder cost, may be either a linear, quadratic or an exponential function of the length of time of a backorder, with or without period of grace. Lead times are assumed constant or gamma distributed. Lastly, the actual supply quantity is allowed to be distributed. All the sets of equations were programmed for a KDF 9 computer and the computed performances of the four inventory control procedures are compared under each assurnption.

Development of a sediment yield model for South East Ghana in the regions around Lake Volta

Soil erosion is one of the most pressing issues facing developing countries. The need for soil erosion assessment is paramount as a successful and productive agricultural base is necessary for economic growth and stability. In Ghana, a country with an expanding population and high potential for economic growth, agriculture is an important resource; however, most of the crop production is restricted to low technology shifting cultivation agriculture. The high intensity seasonal rainfall coincides with the early growing period of many of the crops meaning that plots are very susceptible to erosion, especially on steep sided valleys in the region south of Lake Volta. This research investigated the processes of soil erosion by rainfall with the aim of producing a sediment yield model for a small semi-agricultural catchment in rural Ghana. Various types of modelling techniques were considered to discover those most applicable to the sub-tropical environment of Southern Ghana. Once an appropriate model had been developed and calibrated, the aim was to look at how to enable the scaling up of the model using sub-catchments to calculate sedimentation rates of Lake Volta. An experimental catchment was located in Ghana, south west of Lake Volta, where data on rainstorms and the associated streamflow, sediment loads and soil data (moisture content, classification and particle size distribution) was collected to calibrate the model. Additional data was obtained from the Soil Research Institute in Ghana to explore calibration of the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE, Wischmeier and Smith, 1978) for Ghanaian soils and environment. It was shown that the USLE could be successfully converted to provide meaningful soil loss estimates in the Ghanaian environment. However, due to experimental difficulties, the proposed theory and methodology of the sediment yield model could only be tested in principle. Future work may include validation of the model and subsequent scaling up to estimate sedimentation rates in Lake Volta.

Modelling data and voice traffic over IP networks using continuous-time Markov models

Common approaches to IP-traffic modelling have featured the use of stochastic models, based on the Markov property, which can be classified into black box and white box models based on the approach used for modelling traffic. White box models, are simple to understand, transparent and have a physical meaning attributed to each of the associated parameters. To exploit this key advantage, this thesis explores the use of simple classic continuous-time Markov models based on a white box approach, to model, not only the network traffic statistics but also the source behaviour with respect to the network and application. The thesis is divided into two parts: The first part focuses on the use of simple Markov and Semi-Markov traffic models, starting from the simplest two-state model moving upwards to n-state models with Poisson and non-Poisson statistics. The thesis then introduces the convenient to use, mathematically derived, Gaussian Markov models which are used to model the measured network IP traffic statistics. As one of the most significant contributions, the thesis establishes the significance of the second-order density statistics as it reveals that, in contrast to first-order density, they carry much more unique information on traffic sources and behaviour. The thesis then exploits the use of Gaussian Markov models to model these unique features and finally shows how the use of simple classic Markov models coupled with use of second-order density statistics provides an excellent tool for capturing maximum traffic detail, which in itself is the essence of good traffic modelling. The second part of the thesis, studies the ON-OFF characteristics of VoIP traffic with reference to accurate measurements of the ON and OFF periods, made from a large multi-lingual database of over 100 hours worth of VoIP call recordings. The impact of the language, prosodic structure and speech rate of the speaker on the statistics of the ON-OFF periods is analysed and relevant conclusions are presented. Finally, an ON-OFF VoIP source model with log-normal transitions is contributed as an ideal candidate to model VoIP traffic and the results of this model are compared with those of previously published work.

Achieving continuous improvement through self-assessment

In 2007 the UK Office of Government Commerce was mandated to carry out Procurement Capability Reviews (PCR) across the 16 top spending UK Government Departments. Since then, this programme has evolved into a self assessment based approach which is markedly different from the original approach. Will the move from a centre-led strategic review of procurement capability to a department-led model based on self assessment continue to strengthen and improve procurement capability across Central Civil Government? OGC is currently working with UK Government Departments to carry out their PCRs using a self-assessment tool which incorporates qualitative and quantitative measures. Results are generated based on a capability maturity model. The results are assured independently. OGC expectations are that tangible and measurable capability improvements will be realised when departments embed the self-assessment model and implement the findings as part of a continuous improvement regime. This paper is a case study, using some relevant literature to reflect on past and possible future development of the PCR self assessment scheme.

Estimating the SCAN*PRO model of store sales: HB, FM or just OLS?

In this paper we investigate whether consideration of store-level heterogeneity in marketing mix effects improves the accuracy of the marketing mix elasticities, fit, and forecasting accuracy of the widely-applied SCAN*PRO model of store sales. Models with continuous and discrete representations of heterogeneity, estimated using hierarchical Bayes (HB) and finite mixture (FM) techniques, respectively, are empirically compared to the original model, which does not account for store-level heterogeneity in marketing mix effects, and is estimated using ordinary least squares (OLS). The empirical comparisons are conducted in two contexts: Dutch store-level scanner data for the shampoo product category, and an extensive simulation experiment. The simulation investigates how between- and within-segment variance in marketing mix effects, error variance, the number of weeks of data, and the number of stores impact the accuracy of marketing mix elasticities, model fit, and forecasting accuracy. Contrary to expectations, accommodating store-level heterogeneity does not improve the accuracy of marketing mix elasticities relative to the homogeneous SCAN*PRO model, suggesting that little may be lost by employing the original homogeneous SCAN*PRO model estimated using ordinary least squares. Improvements in fit and forecasting accuracy are also fairly modest. We pursue an explanation for this result since research in other contexts has shown clear advantages from assuming some type of heterogeneity in market response models. In an Afterthought section, we comment on the controversial nature of our result, distinguishing factors inherent to household-level data and associated models vs. general store-level data and associated models vs. the unique SCAN*PRO model specification.

Agent-orientated auction mechanism and strategy design

Agent-based technology is playing an increasingly important role in today’s economy. Usually a multi-agent system is needed to model an economic system such as a market system, in which heterogeneous trading agents interact with each other autonomously. Two questions often need to be answered regarding such systems: 1) How to design an interacting mechanism that facilitates efficient resource allocation among usually self-interested trading agents? 2) How to design an effective strategy in some specific market mechanisms for an agent to maximise its economic returns? For automated market systems, auction is the most popular mechanism to solve resource allocation problems among their participants. However, auction comes in hundreds of different formats, in which some are better than others in terms of not only the allocative efficiency but also other properties e.g., whether it generates high revenue for the auctioneer, whether it induces stable behaviour of the bidders. In addition, different strategies result in very different performance under the same auction rules. With this background, we are inevitably intrigued to investigate auction mechanism and strategy designs for agent-based economics. The international Trading Agent Competition (TAC) Ad Auction (AA) competition provides a very useful platform to develop and test agent strategies in Generalised Second Price auction (GSP). AstonTAC, the runner-up of TAC AA 2009, is a successful advertiser agent designed for GSP-based keyword auction. In particular, AstonTAC generates adaptive bid prices according to the Market-based Value Per Click and selects a set of keyword queries with highest expected profit to bid on to maximise its expected profit under the limit of conversion capacity. Through evaluation experiments, we show that AstonTAC performs well and stably not only in the competition but also across a broad range of environments. The TAC CAT tournament provides an environment for investigating the optimal design of mechanisms for double auction markets. AstonCAT-Plus is the post-tournament version of the specialist developed for CAT 2010. In our experiments, AstonCAT-Plus not only outperforms most specialist agents designed by other institutions but also achieves high allocative efficiencies, transaction success rates and average trader profits. Moreover, we reveal some insights of the CAT: 1) successful markets should maintain a stable and high market share of intra-marginal traders; 2) a specialist’s performance is dependent on the distribution of trading strategies. However, typical double auction models assume trading agents have a fixed trading direction of either buy or sell. With this limitation they cannot directly reflect the fact that traders in financial markets (the most popular application of double auction) decide their trading directions dynamically. To address this issue, we introduce the Bi-directional Double Auction (BDA) market which is populated by two-way traders. Experiments are conducted under both dynamic and static settings of the continuous BDA market. We find that the allocative efficiency of a continuous BDA market mainly comes from rational selection of trading directions. Furthermore, we introduce a high-performance Kernel trading strategy in the BDA market which uses kernel probability density estimator built on historical transaction data to decide optimal order prices. Kernel trading strategy outperforms some popular intelligent double auction trading strategies including ZIP, GD and RE in the continuous BDA market by making the highest profit in static games and obtaining the best wealth in dynamic games.

Is there a global model of learning organizations? An empirical, cross-nation study

This paper develops and tests a learning organization model derived from HRM and dynamic capability literatures in order to ascertain the model's applicability across divergent global contexts. We define a learning organization as one capable of achieving on-going strategic renewal, arguing based on dynamic capability theory that the model has three necessary antecedents: HRM focus, developmental orientation and customer-facing remit. Drawing on a sample comprising nearly 6000 organizations across 15 countries, we show that learning organizations exhibit higher performance than their less learning-inclined counterparts. We also demonstrate that innovation fully mediates the relationship between our conceptualization of the learning organization and organizational performance in 11 of the 15 countries we examined. It is the first time in our knowledge that these questions have been tested in a major, cross-global study, and our work contributes to both HRM and dynamic capability literatures, especially where the focus is the applicability of best practice parameters across national boundaries.

Changing employment relation systems in Japan:cases of the Mitsubishi Chemical Group and the Federation of Shinkin Banks

Over the past decade or so a number of changes have been observed in traditional Japanese employment relations (ERs) systems such as an increase in non-regular workers, a move towards performance-based systems and a continuous decline in union membership. There is a large body of Anglo-Saxon and Japanese literature providing evidence that national factors such as national institutions, national culture, and the business and economic environment have significantly influenced what were hitherto three ‘sacred’ aspects of Japanese ERs systems (ERSs). However, no research has been undertaken until now at the firm level regarding the extent to which changes in national factors influence ERSs across firms. This article develops a model to examine the impact of national factors on ER systems; and analyses the impact of national factors at the firm level ER systems. Based on information collected from two different groups of companies, namely Mitsubishi Chemical Group (MCG) and Federation of Shinkin Bank (FSB) the research finds that except for a few similarities, the impact of national factors is different on Japanese ER systems at the firm level. This indicates that the impact of national factors varies in the implementation of employment relations factors. In the case of MCG, national culture has less to do with seniority-based system. Study also reveals that the national culture factors have also less influence on an enterprise-based system in the case of FSB. This analysis is useful for domestic and international organizations as it helps to better understand the role of national factors in determining Japanese ERSs.

Introduction : Islam and human resource management

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to introduce this special issue on Islam and human resource management (HRM). Design/methodology/approach – The paper introduces the papers in this special issue, which further current understanding of the association between Islam and HRM, and HRM practices in Islamic countries. The papers debate whether it makes sense to talk about an Islamic HRM, and try to identify the key features of an Islamic HRM model that is substantially distinctive from existing normative models of HRM. Findings – The papers examine the impact of Islamic values on HRM practices and organisational outcomes, but more research is needed to gain a deeper understanding of the role Islam plays at the work place, and specifically how Islamic ideals, culture, values and norms are used in practice and implications thereof on workplace environment and overall organisational performance. Originality/value – The paper introduces the concept of Islam and human resource management.

Universalistic or contingency model? Contribution of HRM towards firms’ performance in Greece

This paper investigates the impact of HRM systems on organisational performance in a sample of 178 Greek manufacturing organisations. The results show strong support for the ‘universalistic’ model, highlighting that both resource-development and reward-relations systems are positively related with organisational performance. The results also show weak and partial support for the ‘contingency model’, i.e., resourcedevelopment and reward-relations systems are contingent on the business strategies of quality, innovation, and cost in determining organisational efficiency. The study concludes that the universalistic and contingency perspectives are not necessarily mutually exclusive but on the contrary are in some cases complementary.

The core critical success factors in implementation of enterprise resource planning systems

The Implementation of Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems require huge investments while ineffective implementations of such projects are commonly observed. A considerable number of these projects have been reported to fail or take longer than it was initially planned, while previous studies show that the aim of rapid implementation of such projects has not been successful and the failure of the fundamental goals in these projects have imposed huge amounts of costs on investors. Some of the major consequences are the reduction in demand for such products and the introduction of further skepticism to the managers and investors of ERP systems. In this regard, it is important to understand the factors determining success or failure of ERP implementation. The aim of this paper is to study the critical success factors (CSFs) in implementing ERP systems and to develop a conceptual model which can serve as a basis for ERP project managers. These critical success factors that are called “core critical success factors” are extracted from 62 published papers using the content analysis and the entropy method. The proposed conceptual model has been verified in the context of five multinational companies.