Variational mean-field algorithm for efficient inference in large systems of stochastic differential equations

This work introduces a Gaussian variational mean-field approximation for inference in dynamical systems which can be modeled by ordinary stochastic differential equations. This new approach allows one to express the variational free energy as a functional of the marginal moments of the approximating Gaussian process. A restriction of the moment equations to piecewise polynomial functions, over time, dramatically reduces the complexity of approximate inference for stochastic differential equation models and makes it comparable to that of discrete time hidden Markov models. The algorithm is demonstrated on state and parameter estimation for nonlinear problems with up to 1000 dimensional state vectors and compares the results empirically with various well-known inference methodologies.

Eco-efficiency measurement and material balance principle:an application in power plants Malmquist Luenberger Index

Incorporating Material Balance Principle (MBP) in industrial and agricultural performance measurement systems with pollutant factors has been on the rise in recent years. Many conventional methods of performance measurement have proven incompatible with the material flow conditions. This study will address the issue of eco-efficiency measurement adjusted for pollution, taking into account materials flow conditions and the MBP requirements, in order to provide ‘real’ measures of performance that can serve as guides when making policies. We develop a new approach by integrating slacks-based measure to enhance the Malmquist Luenberger Index by a material balance condition that reflects the conservation of matter. This model is compared with a similar model, which incorporates MBP using the trade-off approach to measure productivity and eco-efficiency trends of power plants. Results reveal similar findings for both models substantiating robustness and applicability of the proposed model in this paper.

Variational Markov chain Monte Carlo for Bayesian smoothing of non-linear diffusions

In this paper we develop set of novel Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms for Bayesian smoothing of partially observed non-linear diffusion processes. The sampling algorithms developed herein use a deterministic approximation to the posterior distribution over paths as the proposal distribution for a mixture of an independence and a random walk sampler. The approximating distribution is sampled by simulating an optimized time-dependent linear diffusion process derived from the recently developed variational Gaussian process approximation method. The novel diffusion bridge proposal derived from the variational approximation allows the use of a flexible blocking strategy that further improves mixing, and thus the efficiency, of the sampling algorithms. The algorithms are tested on two diffusion processes: one with double-well potential drift and another with SINE drift. The new algorithm's accuracy and efficiency is compared with state-of-the-art hybrid Monte Carlo based path sampling. It is shown that in practical, finite sample applications the algorithm is accurate except in the presence of large observation errors and low to a multi-modal structure in the posterior distribution over paths. More importantly, the variational approximation assisted sampling algorithm outperforms hybrid Monte Carlo in terms of computational efficiency, except when the diffusion process is densely observed with small errors in which case both algorithms are equally efficient. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.

Inverse space-dependent force problems for the wave equation

The determination of the displacement and the space-dependent force acting on a vibrating structure from measured final or time-average displacement observation is thoroughly investigated. Several aspects related to the existence and uniqueness of a solution of the linear but ill-posed inverse force problems are highlighted. After that, in order to capture the solution a variational formulation is proposed and the gradient of the least-squares functional that is minimized is rigorously and explicitly derived. Numerical results obtained using the Landweber method and the conjugate gradient method are presented and discussed illustrating the convergence of the iterative procedures for exact input data. Furthermore, for noisy data the semi-convergence phenomenon appears, as expected, and stability is restored by stopping the iterations according to the discrepancy principle criterion once the residual becomes close to the amount of noise. The present investigation will be significant to researchers concerned with wave propagation and control of vibrating structures.