Web based expert elicitation of uncertainties in environmental model inputs

When constructing and using environmental models, it is typical that many of the inputs to the models will not be known perfectly. In some cases, it will be possible to make observations, or occasionally physics-based uncertainty propagation, to ascertain the uncertainty on these inputs. However, such observations are often either not available or even possible, and another approach to characterising the uncertainty on the inputs must be sought. Even when observations are available, if the analysis is being carried out within a Bayesian framework then prior distributions will have to be specified. One option for gathering or at least estimating this information is to employ expert elicitation. Expert elicitation is well studied within statistics and psychology and involves the assessment of the beliefs of a group of experts about an uncertain quantity, (for example an input / parameter within a model), typically in terms of obtaining a probability distribution. One of the challenges in expert elicitation is to minimise the biases that might enter into the judgements made by the individual experts, and then to come to a consensus decision within the group of experts. Effort is made in the elicitation exercise to prevent biases clouding the judgements through well-devised questioning schemes. It is also important that, when reaching a consensus, the experts are exposed to the knowledge of the others in the group. Within the FP7 UncertWeb project (http://www.uncertweb.org/), there is a requirement to build a Webbased tool for expert elicitation. In this paper, we discuss some of the issues of building a Web-based elicitation system - both the technological aspects and the statistical and scientific issues. In particular, we demonstrate two tools: a Web-based system for the elicitation of continuous random variables and a system designed to elicit uncertainty about categorical random variables in the setting of landcover classification uncertainty. The first of these examples is a generic tool developed to elicit uncertainty about univariate continuous random variables. It is designed to be used within an application context and extends the existing SHELF method, adding a web interface and access to metadata. The tool is developed so that it can be readily integrated with environmental models exposed as web services. The second example was developed for the TREES-3 initiative which monitors tropical landcover change through ground-truthing at confluence points. It allows experts to validate the accuracy of automated landcover classifications using site-specific imagery and local knowledge. Experts may provide uncertainty information at various levels: from a general rating of their confidence in a site validation to a numerical ranking of the possible landcover types within a segment. A key challenge in the web based setting is the design of the user interface and the method of interacting between the problem owner and the problem experts. We show the workflow of the elicitation tool, and show how we can represent the final elicited distributions and confusion matrices using UncertML, ready for integration into uncertainty enabled workflows.We also show how the metadata associated with the elicitation exercise is captured and can be referenced from the elicited result, providing crucial lineage information and thus traceability in the decision making process.

Supporting English language teachers doing further degrees at a distance:a web based strategy researched

This thesis explores how the world-wide-web can be used to support English language teachers doing further studies at a distance. The future of education worldwide is moving towards a requirement that we, as teacher educators, use the latest web technology not as a gambit, but as a viable tool to improve learning. By examining the literature on knowledge, teacher education and web training, a model of teacher knowledge development, along with statements of advice for web developers based upon the model are developed. Next, the applicability and viability of both the model and statements of advice are examined by developing a teacher support site (bttp://www. philseflsupport. com) according to these principles. The data collected from one focus group of users from sixteen different countries, all studying on the same distance Masters programme, is then analysed in depth. The outcomes from the research are threefold: A functioning website that is averaging around 15, 000 hits a month provides a professional contribution. An expanded model of teacher knowledge development that is based upon five theoretical principles that reflect the ever-expanding cyclical nature of teacher learning provides an academic contribution. A series of six statements of advice for developers of teacher support sites. These statements are grounded in the theoretical principles behind the model of teacher knowledge development and incorporate nine keys to effective web facilitation. Taken together, they provide a forward-looking contribution to the praxis of web supported teacher education, and thus to the potential dissemination of the research presented here. The research has succeeded in reducing the proliferation of terminology in teacher knowledge into a succinct model of teacher knowledge development. The model may now be used to further our understanding of how teachers learn and develop as other research builds upon the individual study here. NB: Appendix 4 is only available only available for consultation at Aston University Library with prior arrangement.

The influence of the socio-educational reading environment in an Arab University upon English reading performance

Research into FL/EFL macro-reading (the effect of the broader context of reading) has been little explored in spite of its importance in the FL/EFL reading programmes. This study was designed to build on previous work by explaining in more depth the influence of the socio-educational reading environment in an Arab university (Al-Fateh University in Tripoli, Libya) - as reported by students, upon these students' reading ability in English and Arabic (particularly the former). Certain aspects of the lecturers' reading habits and attitudes and classroom operation were also investigated. Written cloze tests in English and Arabic and self-administered questionnaires were given to 125 preliminary-year undergraduates in three faculties of Al-Fateh University on the basis of their use of English as a medium of instruction (one representing the Arts' stream and two representing the Science stream). Twenty two lecturers were interviewed and observed by an inventory technique along with twenty other preliminary-year students. Factor analysis and standard multiple regression technique were among the statistical methods used to analyse the main data. The findings demonstrate a significant relationship between reading ability in English and the reading individual and environmental variables - as defined in the study. A combination of common and different series of such predictors were found accountable for the variation (43% for the first year English specialist; 48% for the combined Medicine student sample) in the English reading tests. Also found was a significant, though not very large, relationship between reading ability in Arabic and the reading environment. Non-statistical but objective analyses, based on the present data, also revealed an overall association between English reading performance and an important number of reading environmental variables - where many `poor' users of the reading environment (particularly the academic one) obtained low scores in the English cloze tests. Accepting the limitations of a single study, it is nevertheless clear that the reading environment at the University is in need of improvement and that students' use of it also requires better guidance and training in how to use it effectively. Suggestions are made for appropriate educational changes.

A techno-economic assessment of the use of fast pyrolysis bio-oil from UK energy crops in the production of electricity and combined heat and power

This thesis investigates the cost of electricity generation using bio-oil produced by the fast pyrolysis of UK energy crops. The study covers cost from the farm to the generator’s terminals. The use of short rotation coppice willow and miscanthus as feedstocks was investigated. All costs and performance data have been taken from published papers, reports or web sites. Generation technologies are compared at scales where they have proved economic burning other fuels, rather than at a given size. A pyrolysis yield model was developed for a bubbling fluidised bed fast pyrolysis reactor from published data to predict bio-oil yields and pyrolysis plant energy demands. Generation using diesel engines, gas turbines in open and combined cycle (CCGT) operation and steam cycle plants was considered. The use of bio-oil storage to allow the pyrolysis and generation plants to operate independently of each other was investigated. The option of using diesel generators and open cycle gas turbines for combined heat and power was examined. The possible cost reductions that could be expected through learning if the technology is widely implemented were considered. It was found that none of the systems analysed would be viable without subsidy, but with the current Renewable Obligation Scheme CCGT plants in the 200 to 350 MWe range, super-critical coal fired boilers co-fired with bio-oil, and groups of diesel engine based CHP schemes supplied by a central pyrolysis plant would be viable. It was found that the cost would reduce with implementation and the planting of more energy crops but some subsidy would still be needed to make the plants viable.

Rosemary : a raw material for a new genre of bio-based antioxidants for sustainable applications

The potential replacement, partially or fully, of synthetic additives by bio-based alternatives derived from indigenous renewable non-food crop resources offers a market opportunity for a green supply of raw materials for different industrial and health products, with greater involvement of the farming community in crop production while addressing the ever more stringent environmental and pollution laws that now require the use of less potentially toxic/harmful ingredients, even if they are present in relatively small quantities. The work presented here relates to developing a new genre of environmentally-sustainable bio-based antioxidants (AO) for industrial uses that are obtained from extracts of UK-grown rosemary (Rosmarinus officinalis) plant. The performance of these AOs was tested, and their efficacy compared with some common and benchmark synthetic AOs from the same chemical class, in different products including polymers especially for packaging, as well as lubricants, cosmetics and health products. One of the main active ingredients in rosemary is Rosmarinic acid which is a water-soluble compound. This was chemically transformed into a number of ester derivatives, Rosmarinates, targeted for different applications. The parent and the modified antioxidants (the rosmarinates) were characterised and their antioxidancy were examined and tested in linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) and in polypropylene (PP) and compared with compounds of similar structure and with other well known synthetic antioxidants used commercially in polyolefins. The results show that antioxidants sourced from rosemary have the added benefit of being highly efficient and intrinsically more active than many synthetic and bio-based alternatives.

Evidence based pharmacogenetics study of the use of anti-psychotics in treatment of schizophrenia

DUE TO COPYRIGHT RESTRICTIONS ONLY AVAILABLE FOR CONSULTATION AT ASTON UNIVERSITY LIBRARY AND INFORMATION SERVICES WITH PRIOR ARRANGEMENT

The use of ICT by logistics service providers and implications for training needs:a cross-country perspective

Changes in the international economic scenario in recent years have made it necessary for both industrial and service firms to reformulate their strategies, with a strong focus on the resources required for successful implementation. In this scenario, information and communication technologies (ICT) has a potentially vital role to play both as a key resource for re-engineering business processes within a framework of direct connection between suppliers and customers, and as a source of cost optimisation. There have also been innovations in the logistics and freight transport industry in relation to ICT diffusion. The implementation of such systems by third party logistics providers (3PL) allows the real-time exchange of information between supply chain partners, thereby improving planning capability and customer service. Unlike other industries, the logistics and freight transport industry is lagging somewhat behind other sectors in ICT diffusion. This situation is to be attributed to a series of both industry-specific and other factors, such as: (a) traditional resistance to change on the part of transport and logistics service providers; (b) the small size of firms that places considerable constraints upon investment in ICT; (c) the relative shortage of user-friendly applications; (d) the diffusion of internal standards on the part of the main providers in the industry whose aim is to protect company information, preventing its dissemination among customers and suppliers; (e) the insufficient degree of professional skills for using such technologies on the part of staff in such firms. The latter point is of critical importance insofar as the adoption of ICT is making it increasingly necessary both to develop new technical skills to use different hardware and new software tools, and to be able to plan processes of communication so as to allow the optimal use of ICT. The aim of this paper is to assess the impact of ICT on transport and logistics industry and to highlight how the use of such new technologies is affecting providers' training needs. The first part will provide a conceptual framework of the impact of ICT on the transport and logistics industry. In the second part the state of ICT dissemination in the Italian and Irish third party logistics industry will be outlined. In the third part, the impact of ICT on the training needs of transport and logistics service providers - based on case studies in both countries - are discussed. The implications of the foregoing for the development of appropriate training policies are considered. For the covering abstract see ITRD E126595.

A paradigm sensitive perspective on the ranking of accounting journals:a web-based survey approach

This paper reports the results of a web-based study of the perceptions of accounting journals in Australasia. Journal ranking studies have generally adopted citation techniques or used academics’ perceptions as the basis for assessing journal quality. Our research contributes to the existing literature by conducting a survey of academics in Australasia using a web-based instrument. The analysis indicates that the perceptions of the so-called “elite” accounting journals have become unsettled. The research highlights the emergence of more recent, alternative paradigm journals (CPA and AAAJ) as both highly ranking.

Linking design and manufacturing domains via web-based and enterprise integration technologies

The manufacturing industry faces many challenges such as reducing time-to-market and cutting costs. In order to meet these increasing demands, effective methods are need to support the early product development stages by bridging the gap of communicating early design ideas and the evaluation of manufacturing performance. This paper introduces methods of linking design and manufacturing domains using disparate technologies. The combined technologies include knowledge management supporting for product lifecycle management systems, Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems, aggregate process planning systems, workflow management and data exchange formats. A case study has been used to demonstrate the use of these technologies, illustrated by adding manufacturing knowledge to generate alternative early process plan which are in turn used by an ERP system to obtain and optimise a rough-cut capacity plan. Copyright © 2010 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

Counting on use of technology to enhance learning

In global policy documents, the language of Technology-Enhanced Learning (TEL) now firmly structures a perception of educational technology which ‘subsumes’ terms like Networked Learning and e-Learning. Embedded in these three words though is a deterministic, economic assumption that technology has now enhanced learning, and will continue to do so. In a market-driven, capitalist society this is a ‘trouble free’, economically focused discourse which suggests there is no need for further debate about what the use of technology achieves in learning. Yet this raises a problem too: if technology achieves goals for human beings, then in education we are now simply counting on ‘use of technology’ to enhance learning. This closes the door on a necessary and ongoing critical pedagogical conversation that reminds us it is people that design learning, not technology. Furthermore, such discourse provides a vehicle for those with either strong hierarchical, or neoliberal agendas to make simplified claims politically, in the name of technology. This chapter is a reflection on our use of language in the educational technology community through a corpus-based Critical Discourse Analysis (CDA). In analytical examples that are ‘loaded’ with economic expectation, we can notice how the policy discourse of TEL narrows conversational space for learning so that people may struggle to recognise their own subjective being in this language. Through the lens of Lieras’s externality, desubjectivisation and closure (Lieras, 1996) we might examine possible effects of this discourse and seek a more emancipatory approach. A return to discussing Networked Learning is suggested, as a first step towards a more multi-directional conversation than TEL, that acknowledges the interrelatedness of technology, language and learning in people’s practice. Secondly, a reconsideration of how we write policy for educational technology is recommended, with a critical focus on how people learn, rather than on what technology is assumed to enhance.

Majestic Gamification:a case study in the adoption of a service innovation

Purpose: A case study is presented concerning a gamified awards system designed to encourage software users to explore a suite of tools, and to share their expertise level in profile pages. Majestic is a high-tech business based in the West Midlands (UK) w hich offers a Link Intelligence database using a Software as a Service (SaaS) business model. Customers leverage the database for tasks including Search Engine Optimisation (SEO) by using a suite of web-based tools. Getting to know all the tools and how they can be deployed to good effect represents a considerable learning challenge, and Majestic were aware that. Design/methodology/approach: We present the development of Majestic Awards as a case study highlighting the most important design decisions. Then we reflect on the development process as an example of innovation adoption, thereby identifying resources and cu ltura l factors which were critical in ensuring the success of the project. Findings: The gamified awards system makes learning the tools an enjoyable, explorative experience. Success factors included identifying a clear business goal, the process/ project f it, senior management buy in, and identifying the knowledge and resources to resolve t echnical issues. Originality/value: Prior to gamification of the system, only the most expert users regu larly utilized all the tools. The user base is now more knowl edgable about the system and some users choose to use the system to publicize their expertise.

The adoption and use of diagnostic and prognostic technology within UK-based manufacturers

Manufacturers are seeking increasingly innovative ways to achieve competitive advantage. An emerging trend is to exploit diagnostic and prognostic technology to support service-led competitive strategies where the emphasis is put on the 'sale of use' rather than the 'sale of product'. However, little is known about the extent to which this technology is being exploited, the drivers and inhibitors, and the sectors where adoption is most prolific. This paper introduces the results of a survey conducted across the UK manufacturing sector to explore the extent, motivations, benefits, and challenges of deploying diagnostic and prognostic technology as an element of competitive strategy.

A multi-organisational approach for disaster preparedness and response:the use of optimisation and GIS for facility location, stock pre-positioning, resource allocation and relief distribution

From 1992 to 2012 4.4 billion people were affected by disasters with almost 2 trillion USD in damages and 1.3 million people killed worldwide. The increasing threat of disasters stresses the need to provide solutions for the challenges faced by disaster managers, such as the logistical deployment of resources required to provide relief to victims. The location of emergency facilities, stock prepositioning, evacuation, inventory management, resource allocation, and relief distribution have been identified to directly impact the relief provided to victims during the disaster. Managing appropriately these factors is critical to reduce suffering. Disaster management commonly attracts several organisations working alongside each other and sharing resources to cope with the emergency. Coordinating these agencies is a complex task but there is little research considering multiple organisations, and none actually optimising the number of actors required to avoid shortages and convergence. The aim of the this research is to develop a system for disaster management based on a combination of optimisation techniques and geographical information systems (GIS) to aid multi-organisational decision-making. An integrated decision system was created comprising a cartographic model implemented in GIS to discard floodable facilities, combined with two models focused on optimising the decisions regarding location of emergency facilities, stock prepositioning, the allocation of resources and relief distribution, along with the number of actors required to perform these activities. Three in-depth case studies in Mexico were studied gathering information from different organisations. The cartographic model proved to reduce the risk to select unsuitable facilities. The preparedness and response models showed the capacity to optimise the decisions and the number of organisations required for logistical activities, pointing towards an excess of actors involved in all cases. The system as a whole demonstrated its capacity to provide integrated support for disaster preparedness and response, along with the existence of room for improvement for Mexican organisations in flood management.