Bayesian precalibration of a large stochastic microsimulation model

Calibration of stochastic traffic microsimulation models is a challenging task. This paper proposes a fast iterative probabilistic precalibration framework and demonstrates how it can be successfully applied to a real-world traffic simulation model of a section of the M40 motorway and its surrounding area in the U.K. The efficiency of the method stems from the use of emulators of the stochastic microsimulator, which provides fast surrogates of the traffic model. The use of emulators minimizes the number of microsimulator runs required, and the emulators' probabilistic construction allows for the consideration of the extra uncertainty introduced by the approximation. It is shown that automatic precalibration of this real-world microsimulator, using turn-count observational data, is possible, considering all parameters at once, and that this precalibrated microsimulator improves on the fit to observations compared with the traditional expertly tuned microsimulation. © 2000-2011 IEEE.

Self-explanation in adaptive systems based on runtime goal-based models

The behaviour of self adaptive systems can be emergent, which means that the system’s behaviour may be seen as unexpected by its customers and its developers. Therefore, a self-adaptive system needs to garner confidence in its customers and it also needs to resolve any surprise on the part of the developer during testing and maintenance. We believe that these two functions can only be achieved if a self-adaptive system is also capable of self-explanation. We argue a self-adaptive system’s behaviour needs to be explained in terms of satisfaction of its requirements. Since self-adaptive system requirements may themselves be emergent, we propose the use of goal-based requirements models at runtime to offer self-explanation of how a system is meeting its requirements. We demonstrate the analysis of run-time requirements models to yield a self-explanation codified in a domain specific language, and discuss possible future work.

Revisiting goal-oriented models for self-aware systems-of-systems

Systems-of-systems (SoS) are systems resulted from the interaction among other independent constituent systems that collaborate to offer new functionalities towards accomplishing global missions. Each of these constituent systems accomplishes its individual missions and is able to contribute to the achievement of the global missions of the SoS, both being viewed as a set of associated goals. In the perspective of self-aware systems, SoS need to exhibit goal-awareness, i.e., They need to be aware of their own goals and of how their constituent systems contribute to their accomplishment. In this paper, we revisit goal-oriented concepts aiming at identifying and modeling goals at both SoS level and the constituent systems level. Moreover, we take advantage of such goal-oriented models to express the relationship among goals at these levels as well as to define how each constituent system can contribute to the accomplishment of global goals of an SoS. In addition, we shed light on important issues related to goal modeling in self-aware SoS to be addressed in future research.