Methods of modelling people using discrete-event simulation

Discrete-event simulation (DES) is a developed technology used to model manufacturing and service systems. However, although the importance of modelling people in a DES has been recognised, there is little guidance on how this can be achieved in practice. The results from a literature review were used in order to identify examples of the use of DES to model people. Each article was examined in order to determine the method used to model people within the simulation study. It was found that there are no common methods but a diverse range of approaches used to model human behaviour in DES. This paper provides an outline of the approaches used to model people in terms of their decision making, availability for work, task performance and arrival rate. The outcome brings together the current knowledge in this area and will be of interest to researchers considering developing a methodology for modelling people in DES and to practitioners engaged with a simulation project involving the model ling of people’s behaviour.

Bandwidth management of WiMAX systems and performance modeling

WiMAX has been introduced as a competitive alternative for metropolitan broadband wireless access technologies. It is connection oriented and it can provide very high data rates, large service coverage, and flexible quality of services (QoS). Due to the large number of connections and flexible QoS supported by WiMAX, the uplink access in WiMAX networks is very challenging since the medium access control (MAC) protocol must efficiently manage the bandwidth and related channel allocations. In this paper, we propose and investigate a cost-effective WiMAX bandwidth management scheme, named the WiMAX partial sharing scheme (WPSS), in order to provide good QoS while achieving better bandwidth utilization and network throughput. The proposed bandwidth management scheme is compared with a simple but inefficient scheme, named the WiMAX complete sharing scheme (WCPS). A maximum entropy (ME) based analytical model (MEAM) is proposed for the performance evaluation of the two bandwidth management schemes. The reason for using MEAM for the performance evaluation is that MEAM can efficiently model a large-scale system in which the number of stations or connections is generally very high, while the traditional simulation and analytical (e.g., Markov models) approaches cannot perform well due to the high computation complexity. We model the bandwidth management scheme as a queuing network model (QNM) that consists of interacting multiclass queues for different service classes. Closed form expressions for the state and blocking probability distributions are derived for those schemes. Simulation results verify the MEAM numerical results and show that WPSS can significantly improve the network's performance compared to WCPS.

Spatial aspects of MRSA epidemiology:A case study using stochastic simulation, kernel estimation and SaTScan

The identification of disease clusters in space or space-time is of vital importance for public health policy and action. In the case of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), it is particularly important to distinguish between community and health care-associated infections, and to identify reservoirs of infection. 832 cases of MRSA in the West Midlands (UK) were tested for clustering and evidence of community transmission, after being geo-located to the centroids of UK unit postcodes (postal areas roughly equivalent to Zip+4 zip code areas). An age-stratified analysis was also carried out at the coarser spatial resolution of UK Census Output Areas. Stochastic simulation and kernel density estimation were combined to identify significant local clusters of MRSA (p<0.025), which were supported by SaTScan spatial and spatio-temporal scan. In order to investigate local sampling effort, a spatial 'random labelling' approach was used, with MRSA as cases and MSSA (methicillin-sensitive S. aureus) as controls. Heavy sampling in general was a response to MRSA outbreaks, which in turn appeared to be associated with medical care environments. The significance of clusters identified by kernel estimation was independently supported by information on the locations and client groups of nursing homes, and by preliminary molecular typing of isolates. In the absence of occupational/ lifestyle data on patients, the assumption was made that an individual's location and consequent risk is adequately represented by their residential postcode. The problems of this assumption are discussed, with recommendations for future data collection.

Design, modeling and construction of a novel ablative fast pyrolysis reactor and product collection system

The objective of this work was to design, construct and commission a new ablative pyrolysis reactor and a high efficiency product collection system. The reactor was to have a nominal throughput of 10 kg/11r of dry biomass and be inherently scalable up to an industrial scale application of 10 tones/hr. The whole process consists of a bladed ablative pyrolysis reactor, two high efficiency cyclones for char removal and a disk and doughnut quench column combined with a wet walled electrostatic precipitator, which is directly mounted on top, for liquids collection. In order to aid design and scale-up calculations, detailed mathematical modelling was undertaken of the reaction system enabling sizes, efficiencies and operating conditions to be determined. Specifically, a modular approach was taken due to the iterative nature of some of the design methodologies, with the output from one module being the input to the next. Separate modules were developed for the determination of the biomass ablation rate, specification of the reactor capacity, cyclone design, quench column design and electrostatic precipitator design. These models enabled a rigorous design protocol to be developed capable of specifying the required reactor and product collection system size for specified biomass throughputs, operating conditions and collection efficiencies. The reactor proved capable of generating an ablation rate of 0.63 mm/s for pine wood at a temperature of 525 'DC with a relative velocity between the heated surface and reacting biomass particle of 12.1 m/s. The reactor achieved a maximum throughput of 2.3 kg/hr, which was the maximum the biomass feeder could supply. The reactor is capable of being operated at a far higher throughput but this would require a new feeder and drive motor to be purchased. Modelling showed that the reactor is capable of achieving a reactor throughput of approximately 30 kg/hr. This is an area that should be considered for the future as the reactor is currently operating well below its theoretical maximum. Calculations show that the current product collection system could operate efficiently up to a maximum feed rate of 10 kg/Fir, provided the inert gas supply was adjusted accordingly to keep the vapour residence time in the electrostatic precipitator above one second. Operation above 10 kg/hr would require some modifications to the product collection system. Eight experimental runs were documented and considered successful, more were attempted but due to equipment failure had to be abandoned. This does not detract from the fact that the reactor and product collection system design was extremely efficient. The maximum total liquid yield was 64.9 % liquid yields on a dry wood fed basis. It is considered that the liquid yield would have been higher had there been sufficient development time to overcome certain operational difficulties and if longer operating runs had been attempted to offset product losses occurring due to the difficulties in collecting all available product from a large scale collection unit. The liquids collection system was highly efficient and modeling determined a liquid collection efficiency of above 99% on a mass basis. This was validated due to the fact that a dry ice/acetone condenser and a cotton wool filter downstream of the collection unit enabled mass measurements of the amount of condensable product exiting the product collection unit. This showed that the collection efficiency was in excess of 99% on a mass basis.

T-cell epitope prediction and immune complex simulation using molecular dynamics:state of the art and persisting challenges

Atomistic Molecular Dynamics provides powerful and flexible tools for the prediction and analysis of molecular and macromolecular systems. Specifically, it provides a means by which we can measure theoretically that which cannot be measured experimentally: the dynamic time-evolution of complex systems comprising atoms and molecules. It is particularly suitable for the simulation and analysis of the otherwise inaccessible details of MHC-peptide interaction and, on a larger scale, the simulation of the immune synapse. Progress has been relatively tentative yet the emergence of truly high-performance computing and the development of coarse-grained simulation now offers us the hope of accurately predicting thermodynamic parameters and of simulating not merely a handful of proteins but larger, longer simulations comprising thousands of protein molecules and the cellular scale structures they form. We exemplify this within the context of immunoinformatics.

A modelling and simulation environment for self-aware and self-expressive systems

Self-awareness and self-expression are promising architectural concepts for embedded systems to be equipped with to match them with dedicated application scenarios and constraints in the avionic and space-flight industry. Typically, these systems operate in largely undefined environments and are not reachable after deployment for a long time or even never ever again. This paper introduces a reference architecture as well as a novel modelling and simulation environment for self-aware and self-expressive systems with transaction level modelling, simulation and detailed modelling capabilities for hardware aspects, precise process chronology execution as well as fine timing resolutions. Furthermore, industrial relevant system sizes with several self-aware and self-expressive nodes can be handled by the modelling and simulation environment.

Simulation process templates for e-business modelling

This paper argues the use of reusable simulation templates as a tool that can help to predict the effect of e-business introduction on business processes. First, a set of requirements for e-business modelling is introduced and modelling options described. Traditional business process mapping techniques are examined as a way of identifying potential changes. Whilst paper-based process mapping may not highlight significant differences between traditional and e-business processes, simulation does allow the real effects of e-business to be identified. Simulation has the advantage of capturing the dynamic characteristics of the process, thus reflecting more accurately the changes in behaviour. This paper shows the value of using generic process maps as a starting point for collecting the data that is needed to build the simulation and proposes the use of reusable templates/components for the speedier building of e-business simulation models.

Fast pyrolysis of biomass in a circulating fluidised bed reactor

The objective of this work was to design, construct, test and operate a novel circulating fluid bed fast pyrolysis reactor system for production of liquids from biomass. The novelty lies in incorporating an integral char combustor to provide autothermal operation. A reactor design methodology was devised which correlated input parameters to process variables, namely temperature, heat transfer and gas/vapour residence time, for both the char combustor and biomass pyrolyser. From this methodology a CFB reactor was designed with integral char combustion for 10 kg/h biomass throughput. A full-scale cold model of the CFB unit was constructed and tested to derive suitable hydrodynamic relationships and performance constraints. Early difficulties encountered with poor solids circulation and inefficient product recovery were overcome by a series of modifications. A total of 11 runs in a pyrolysis mode were carried out with a maximum total liquids yield of 61.50% wt on a maf biomass basis, obtained at 500°C and with 0.46 s gas/vapour residence time. This could be improved by improved vapour recovery by direct quenching up to an anticipated 75 % wt on a moisture-and-ash-free biomass basis. The reactor provides a very high specific throughput of 1.12 - 1.48 kg/hm2 and the lowest gas-to-feed ratio of 1.3 - 1.9 kg gas/kg feed compared to other fast pyrolysis processes based on pneumatic reactors and has a good scale-up potential. These features should provide significant capital cost reduction. Results to date suggest that the process is limited by the extent of char combustion. Future work will address resizing of the char combustor to increase overall system capacity, improvement in solid separation and substantially better liquid recovery. Extended testing will provide better evaluation of steady state operation and provide data for process simulation and reactor modeling.

Consumer responses to really new products: examining the impacts of learning strategies and presentation formats on product comprehension and attitude formation

Mental simulations and analogies have been identified as powerful learning tools for RNPs. Furthermore, visuals in advertising have recently been conceptualized as meaningful sources of information as opposed to peripheral cues and thus may help consumers learn about RNPs. The study of visual attention may also contribute to understanding the links between conceptual and perceptual analyses when learning for a RNP. Two conceptual models are developed. the first model consists of causal relationships between the attributes of advertising stimuli for RNPs and consumer responses, as well as mediating influences. The second model focuses on the role of visual attention in product comprehension as a response to advertising stimuli. Two experiments are conducted: a Web-Experiment and an eye-tracking experiment. The first experiment (858 subjects) examines the effect of learning strategies (mental simulation vs. analogy vs. no analogy/no mental simulation) and presentation formats (words vs. pictures) on individual responses. The mediating role of emotions is assessed. The second experiment investigates the effect of learning strategies and presentation formats on product comprehension, along with the role of attention (17 subjects). The findings from experiment 1 indicate that learning strategies and presentation formats can either enhance or undermine the effect of advertising stimuli on individual responses. Moreover, the nature of the product (i.e. hedonic vs. utilitarian vs. hybrid) should be considered when designing communications for RNPs. The mediating role of emotions is verified. Experiment 2 suggests that an increase in attention to the message may either reflect enhanced comprehension or confusion.

Phase discrimination and simultaneous frequency conversion of the orthogonal components of an optical signal by four-wave mixing in an SOA

Simultaneous conversion of the two orthogonal phase components of an optical input to different output frequencies has been demonstrated by simulation and experiment. A single stage of four-wave mixing between the input signal and four pumps derived from a frequency comb was employed. The nonlinear device was a semiconductor optical amplifier, which provided overall signal gain and sufficient contrast for phase sensitive signal processing. The decomposition of a quadrature phase-shift keyed signal into a pair of binary phase-shift keyed outputs at different frequencies was also demonstrated by simulation.

Towards a practical implementation of coherent WDM:analytical, numerical, and experimental studies

Future optical networks will require the implementation of very high capacity (and therefore spectral efficient) technologies. Multi-carrier systems, such as Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (OFDM) and Coherent WDM (CoWDM), are promising candidates. In this paper, we present analytical, numerical, and experimental investigations of the impact of the relative phases between optical subcarriers of CoWDM systems, as well as the effect that the number of independently modulated subcarriers can have on the performance. We numerically demonstrate a five-subcarrier and three-subcarrier 10-GBd CoWDM system with direct detected amplitude shift keying (ASK) and differentially/coherently detected (D) phase shift keying (PSK). The simulation results are compared with experimental measurements of a 32-Gbit/s DPSK CoWDM system in two configurations. The first configuration was a practical 3-modulator array where all three subcarriers were independently modulated, the second configuration being a traditional 2-modulator odd/even configuration, where only odd and even subcarriers were independently modulated. Simulation and experimental results both indicate that the independent modulation implementation has a greater dependency on the relative phases between subcarriers, with a stronger penalty for the center subcarrier than the odd/even modulation scheme.

Simulation of power quality issues in more electric aircraft actuator supplies

To examine the detailed operation of the power distribution network in a future more electric aircraft that employs electric actuation systems, a Micro-Cap SPICE simulation is developed for one of the essential buses. Particular attention is paid to model accurately the most important effects that influence system power quality. Representative system and flight data are used to illustrate the operation of the simulation and to assess the power quality conditions within the network as the flight control surfaces are deployed. The results illustrate the importance of correct cable sizing to ensure stable operation of actuators during transient conditions.

Predicting class I major histocompatibility complex (MHC) binders using multivariate statistics:comparison of discriminant analysis and multiple linear regression

The accurate in silico identification of T-cell epitopes is a critical step in the development of peptide-based vaccines, reagents, and diagnostics. It has a direct impact on the success of subsequent experimental work. Epitopes arise as a consequence of complex proteolytic processing within the cell. Prior to being recognized by T cells, an epitope is presented on the cell surface as a complex with a major histocompatibility complex (MHC) protein. A prerequisite therefore for T-cell recognition is that an epitope is also a good MHC binder. Thus, T-cell epitope prediction overlaps strongly with the prediction of MHC binding. In the present study, we compare discriminant analysis and multiple linear regression as algorithmic engines for the definition of quantitative matrices for binding affinity prediction. We apply these methods to peptides which bind the well-studied human MHC allele HLA-A*0201. A matrix which results from combining results of the two methods proved powerfully predictive under cross-validation. The new matrix was also tested on an external set of 160 binders to HLA-A*0201; it was able to recognize 135 (84%) of them.