A semantic modelling approach to knowledge based statistical software

The topic of this thesis is the development of knowledge based statistical software. The shortcomings of conventional statistical packages are discussed to illustrate the need to develop software which is able to exhibit a greater degree of statistical expertise, thereby reducing the misuse of statistical methods by those not well versed in the art of statistical analysis. Some of the issues involved in the development of knowledge based software are presented and a review is given of some of the systems that have been developed so far. The majority of these have moved away from conventional architectures by adopting what can be termed an expert systems approach. The thesis then proposes an approach which is based upon the concept of semantic modelling. By representing some of the semantic meaning of data, it is conceived that a system could examine a request to apply a statistical technique and check if the use of the chosen technique was semantically sound, i.e. will the results obtained be meaningful. Current systems, in contrast, can only perform what can be considered as syntactic checks. The prototype system that has been implemented to explore the feasibility of such an approach is presented, the system has been designed as an enhanced variant of a conventional style statistical package. This involved developing a semantic data model to represent some of the statistically relevant knowledge about data and identifying sets of requirements that should be met for the application of the statistical techniques to be valid. Those areas of statistics covered in the prototype are measures of association and tests of location.

Preface

The Semantic Web has come a long way since its inception in 2001, especially in terms of technical development and research progress. However, adoption by non- technical practitioners is still an ongoing process, and in some areas this process is just now starting. Emergency response is an area where reliability and timeliness of information and technologies is of essence. Therefore it is quite natural that more widespread adoption in this area has not been seen until now, when Semantic Web technologies are mature enough to support the high requirements of the application area. Nevertheless, to leverage the full potential of Semantic Web research results for this application area, there is need for an arena where practitioners and researchers can meet and exchange ideas and results. Our intention is for this workshop, and hopefully coming workshops in the same series, to be such an arena for discussion. The Extended Semantic Web Conference (ESWC - formerly the European Semantic Web conference) is one of the major research conferences in the Semantic Web field, whereas this is a suitable location for this workshop in order to discuss the application of Semantic Web technology to our specific area of applications. Hence, we chose to arrange our first SMILE workshop at ESWC 2013. However, this workshop does not focus solely on semantic technologies for emergency response, but rather Semantic Web technologies in combination with technologies and principles for what is sometimes called the "social web". Social media has already been used successfully in many cases, as a tool for supporting emergency response. The aim of this workshop is therefore to take this to the next level and answer questions like: "how can we make sense of, and furthermore make use of, all the data that is produced by different kinds of social media platforms in an emergency situation?" For the first edition of this workshop the chairs collected the following main topics of interest: • Semantic Annotation for understanding the content and context of social media streams. • Integration of Social Media with Linked Data. • Interactive Interfaces and visual analytics methodologies for managing multiple large-scale, dynamic, evolving datasets. • Stream reasoning and event detection. • Social Data Mining. • Collaborative tools and services for Citizens, Organisations, Communities. • Privacy, ethics, trustworthiness and legal issues in the Social Semantic Web. • Use case analysis, with specific interest for use cases that involve the application of Social Media and Linked Data methodologies in real-life scenarios. All of these, applied in the context of: • Crisis and Disaster Management • Emergency Response • Security and Citizen Journalism The workshop received 6 high-quality paper submissions and based on a thorough review process, thanks to our program committee, the decision was made to accept four of these papers for the workshop (67% acceptance rate). These four papers can be found later in this proceedings volume. Three out of four of these papers particularly discuss the integration and analysis of social media data, using Semantic Web technologies, e.g. for detecting complex events in social media streams, for visualizing and analysing sentiments with respect to certain topics in social media, or for detecting small-scale incidents entirely through the use of social media information. Finally, the fourth paper presents an architecture for using Semantic Web technologies in resource management during a disaster. Additionally, the workshop featured an invited keynote speech by Dr. Tomi Kauppinen from Aalto university. Dr. Kauppinen shared experiences from his work on applying Semantic Web technologies to application fields such as geoinformatics and scientific research, i.e. so-called Linked Science, but also recent ideas and applications in the emergency response field. His input was also highly valuable for the roadmapping discussion, which was held at the end of the workshop. A separate summary of the roadmapping session can be found at the end of these proceedings. Finally, we would like to thank our invited speaker Dr. Tomi Kauppinen, all our program committee members, as well as the workshop chair of ESWC2013, Johanna Völker (University of Mannheim), for helping us to make this first SMILE workshop a highly interesting and successful event!

Proceedings of the Spring Servitization Conference (SSC 2013):servitization in the multi-organisation enterprise

The increased data complexity and task interdependency associated with servitization represent significant barriers to its adoption. The outline of a business game is presented which demonstrates the increasing complexity of the management problem when moving through Base, Intermediate and Advanced levels of servitization. Linked data is proposed as an agile set of technologies, based on well established standards, for data exchange both in the game and more generally in supply chains.

A three-level RFID-based automation approach to enhance network competitiveness

Today, the question of how to successfully reduce supply chain costs whilst increasing customer satisfaction continues to be the focus of many firms. It is noted in the literature that supply chain automation can increase flexibility whilst reducing inefficiencies. However, in the dynamic and process driven environment of distribution, there is the absence of a cohesive automation approach to guide companies in improving network competitiveness. This paper aims to address the gap in the literature by developing a three-level framework automation application approach with the assistance of radio frequency identification (RFID) technology and returnable transport equipment (RTE). The first level considers the automation of data retrieval and highlights the benefits of RFID. The second level consists of automating distribution processes such as unloading and assembling orders. As the labour is reduced with the introduction of RFID enabled robots, the balance between automation and labour is discussed. Finally, the third level is an analysis of the decision-making process at network points and the application of cognitive automation to objects. A distribution network scenario is formed and used to illustrate network reconfiguration at each level. The research pinpoints that RFID enabled RTE offers a viable tool to assist supply chain automation. Further research is proposed in particular, the area of cognitive automation to aide with decision-making.

Using HLT for acquiring, retrieving and publishing knowledge in AKT:position paper

AKT is a major research project applying a variety of technologies to knowledge management. Knowledge is a dynamic, ubiquitous resource, which is to be found equally in an expert's head, under terabytes of data, or explicitly stated in manuals. AKT will extend knowledge management technologies to exploit the potential of the semantic web, covering the use of knowledge over its entire lifecycle, from acquisition to maintenance and deletion. In this paper we discuss how HLT will be used in AKT and how the use of HLT will affect different areas of KM, such as knowledge acquisition, retrieval and publishing.

Neural network-based wind vector retrieval from satellite scatterometer data

Obtaining wind vectors over the ocean is important for weather forecasting and ocean modelling. Several satellite systems used operationally by meteorological agencies utilise scatterometers to infer wind vectors over the oceans. In this paper we present the results of using novel neural network based techniques to estimate wind vectors from such data. The problem is partitioned into estimating wind speed and wind direction. Wind speed is modelled using a multi-layer perceptron (MLP) and a sum of squares error function. Wind direction is a periodic variable and a multi-valued function for a given set of inputs; a conventional MLP fails at this task, and so we model the full periodic probability density of direction conditioned on the satellite derived inputs using a Mixture Density Network (MDN) with periodic kernel functions. A committee of the resulting MDNs is shown to improve the results.

Neural network-based wind vector retrieval from satellite scatterometer data

Obtaining wind vectors over the ocean is important for weather forecasting and ocean modelling. Several satellite systems used operationally by meteorological agencies utilise scatterometers to infer wind vectors over the oceans. In this paper we present the results of using novel neural network based techniques to estimate wind vectors from such data. The problem is partitioned into estimating wind speed and wind direction. Wind speed is modelled using a multi-layer perceptron (MLP) and a sum of squares error function. Wind direction is a periodic variable and a multi-valued function for a given set of inputs; a conventional MLP fails at this task, and so we model the full periodic probability density of direction conditioned on the satellite derived inputs using a Mixture Density Network (MDN) with periodic kernel functions. A committee of the resulting MDNs is shown to improve the results.

Overcoming schema heterogeneity between linked semantic repositories to improve coreference resolution

Schema heterogeneity issues often represent an obstacle for discovering coreference links between individuals in semantic data repositories. In this paper we present an approach, which performs ontology schema matching in order to improve instance coreference resolution performance. A novel feature of the approach is its use of existing instance-level coreference links defined in third-party repositories as background knowledge for schema matching techniques. In our tests of this approach we obtained encouraging results, in particular, a substantial increase in recall in comparison with existing sets of coreference links.

Data driven ontology evaluation

The evaluation of ontologies is vital for the growth of the Semantic Web. We consider a number of problems in evaluating a knowledge artifact like an ontology. We propose in this paper that one approach to ontology evaluation should be corpus or data driven. A corpus is the most accessible form of knowledge and its use allows a measure to be derived of the ‘fit’ between an ontology and a domain of knowledge. We consider a number of methods for measuring this ‘fit’ and propose a measure to evaluate structural fit, and a probabilistic approach to identifying the best ontology.

First year qualifying report: neural networks for extracting wind vectors from satellite scatterometer data

The ERS-1 Satellite was launched in July 1991 by the European Space Agency into a polar orbit at about km800, carrying a C-band scatterometer. A scatterometer measures the amount of radar back scatter generated by small ripples on the ocean surface induced by instantaneous local winds. Operational methods that extract wind vectors from satellite scatterometer data are based on the local inversion of a forward model, mapping scatterometer observations to wind vectors, by the minimisation of a cost function in the scatterometer measurement space.par This report uses mixture density networks, a principled method for modelling conditional probability density functions, to model the joint probability distribution of the wind vectors given the satellite scatterometer measurements in a single cell (the `inverse' problem). The complexity of the mapping and the structure of the conditional probability density function are investigated by varying the number of units in the hidden layer of the multi-layer perceptron and the number of kernels in the Gaussian mixture model of the mixture density network respectively. The optimal model for networks trained per trace has twenty hidden units and four kernels. Further investigation shows that models trained with incidence angle as an input have results comparable to those models trained by trace. A hybrid mixture density network that incorporates geophysical knowledge of the problem confirms other results that the conditional probability distribution is dominantly bimodal.par The wind retrieval results improve on previous work at Aston, but do not match other neural network techniques that use spatial information in the inputs, which is to be expected given the ambiguity of the inverse problem. Current work uses the local inverse model for autonomous ambiguity removal in a principled Bayesian framework. Future directions in which these models may be improved are given.

Data visualisation with missing data: A non-linear approach

Exploratory analysis of data in all sciences seeks to find common patterns to gain insights into the structure and distribution of the data. Typically visualisation methods like principal components analysis are used but these methods are not easily able to deal with missing data nor can they capture non-linear structure in the data. One approach to discovering complex, non-linear structure in the data is through the use of linked plots, or brushing, while ignoring the missing data. In this technical report we discuss a complementary approach based on a non-linear probabilistic model. The generative topographic mapping enables the visualisation of the effects of very many variables on a single plot, which is able to incorporate far more structure than a two dimensional principal components plot could, and deal at the same time with missing data. We show that using the generative topographic mapping provides us with an optimal method to explore the data while being able to replace missing values in a dataset, particularly where a large proportion of the data is missing.

Spatially structured cognitve models of semantic information:the implications for computerised databases

Existing theories of semantic cognition propose models of cognitive processing occurring in a conceptual space, where ‘meaning’ is derived from the spatial relationships between concepts’ mapped locations within the space. Information visualisation is a growing area of research within the field of information retrieval, and methods for presenting database contents visually in the form of spatial data management systems (SDMSs) are being developed. This thesis combined these two areas of research to investigate the benefits associated with employing spatial-semantic mapping (documents represented as objects in two- and three-dimensional virtual environments are proximally mapped dependent on the semantic similarity of their content) as a tool for improving retrieval performance and navigational efficiency when browsing for information within such systems. Positive effects associated with the quality of document mapping were observed; improved retrieval performance and browsing behaviour were witnessed when mapping was optimal. It was also shown using a third dimension for virtual environment (VE) presentation provides sufficient additional information regarding the semantic structure of the environment that performance is increased in comparison to using two-dimensions for mapping. A model that describes the relationship between retrieval performance and browsing behaviour was proposed on the basis of findings. Individual differences were not found to have any observable influence on retrieval performance or browsing behaviour when mapping quality was good. The findings from this work have implications for both cognitive modelling of semantic information, and for designing and testing information visualisation systems. These implications are discussed in the conclusions of this work.

Exploratory data analysis with non-linear and missing data in geochemistry

Exploratory analysis of data seeks to find common patterns to gain insights into the structure and distribution of the data. In geochemistry it is a valuable means to gain insights into the complicated processes making up a petroleum system. Typically linear visualisation methods like principal components analysis, linked plots, or brushing are used. These methods can not directly be employed when dealing with missing data and they struggle to capture global non-linear structures in the data, however they can do so locally. This thesis discusses a complementary approach based on a non-linear probabilistic model. The generative topographic mapping (GTM) enables the visualisation of the effects of very many variables on a single plot, which is able to incorporate more structure than a two dimensional principal components plot. The model can deal with uncertainty, missing data and allows for the exploration of the non-linear structure in the data. In this thesis a novel approach to initialise the GTM with arbitrary projections is developed. This makes it possible to combine GTM with algorithms like Isomap and fit complex non-linear structure like the Swiss-roll. Another novel extension is the incorporation of prior knowledge about the structure of the covariance matrix. This extension greatly enhances the modelling capabilities of the algorithm resulting in better fit to the data and better imputation capabilities for missing data. Additionally an extensive benchmark study of the missing data imputation capabilities of GTM is performed. Further a novel approach, based on missing data, will be introduced to benchmark the fit of probabilistic visualisation algorithms on unlabelled data. Finally the work is complemented by evaluating the algorithms on real-life datasets from geochemical projects.