Data assimilation for precipitation nowcasting using Bayesian inference

This work introduces a new variational Bayes data assimilation method for the stochastic estimation of precipitation dynamics using radar observations for short term probabilistic forecasting (nowcasting). A previously developed spatial rainfall model based on the decomposition of the observed precipitation field using a basis function expansion captures the precipitation intensity from radar images as a set of ‘rain cells’. The prior distributions for the basis function parameters are carefully chosen to have a conjugate structure for the precipitation field model to allow a novel variational Bayes method to be applied to estimate the posterior distributions in closed form, based on solving an optimisation problem, in a spirit similar to 3D VAR analysis, but seeking approximations to the posterior distribution rather than simply the most probable state. A hierarchical Kalman filter is used to estimate the advection field based on the assimilated precipitation fields at two times. The model is applied to tracking precipitation dynamics in a realistic setting, using UK Met Office radar data from both a summer convective event and a winter frontal event. The performance of the model is assessed both traditionally and using probabilistic measures of fit based on ROC curves. The model is shown to provide very good assimilation characteristics, and promising forecast skill. Improvements to the forecasting scheme are discussed

A cybernetic methodology to study and design human activities

This thesis offers a methodology to study and design effective communication mechanisms in human activities. The methodology is focused in the management of complexity. It is argued that complexity is not something objective that can be worked out analytically, but something subjective that depends on the viewpoint. Also it is argued that while certain social contexts may inhibit, others may enhance the viewpoint's capabilities to deal with complexity. Certain organisation structures are more likely than others to allow individuals to release their potentials. Thus, the relevance of studying and designing effective organisations. The first part of the thesis offers a `cybernetic methodology' for problem solving in human activities, the second offers a `method' to study and design organisations. The cybernetics methodology discussed in this work is rooted in second order cybernetics, or the cybernetics of the observing systems (Von Foester 1979, Maturana and Varela 1980). Its main tenet is that the known properties of the real world reside in the individual and not in the world itself. This view, which puts emphasis in a, by nature, one sided and unilateral appreciation of reality, triggers the need for dialogue and conversations to construct it. The `method' to study and design organisations, it based on Beer's Viable System Model (Beer 1979, 1981, 1985). This model permits us to assess how successful is an organisation in coping with its environmental complexity, and, moreover, permits us to establish how to make more effective the responses to this complexity. These features of the model are of great significance in a world where complexity is perceived to be growing at an unthinkable pace. But, `seeing' these features of the model assumes an effective appreciation of organisational complexity; hence the need for the methodological discussions offered by the first part of the thesis.

Disciplinary talk:a systemic functional exploration of university seminar discussions

Despite the growth of spoken academic corpora in recent years, relatively little is known about the language of seminar discussions in higher education. This thesis compares seminar discussions across three disciplinary areas. The aim of this thesis is to uncover the functions and patterns of talk used in different disciplinary discussions and to highlight language on a macro and micro level that would be useful for materials design and teaching purposes. A framework for identifying and analysing genres in spoken language based on Hallidayan Systemic Functional Linguistics (SFL) is used. Stretches of talk sharing a similar purpose and predictable functional staging, termed Discussion Macro Genres (DMGs) are identified. Language is compared across DMGs and across disciplines through use of corpus techniques in conjunction with SFL genre theory. Data for the study comprises just over 180,000 tokens and is drawn from the British Academic Spoken English corpus (BASE), recorded at two universities in the UK. The discipline areas investigated are Arts and Humanities, Social Sciences and Physical Sciences. Findings from this study make theoretical, empirical and methodological contributions to the field of spoken EAP. The empirical findings are firstly, that the majority of the seminar discussion can be assigned to one of the three main DMG in the corpus: Responding, Debating and Problem Solving. Secondly, it characterises each discipline area according to two DMGs. Thirdly, the majority of the discussion is non-oppositional in nature, suggesting that ‘debate’ is not the only form of discussion that students need to be prepared for. Finally, while some characteristics of the discussion are tied to the DMG and common across disciplines, others are discipline specific. On a theoretical level, this study shows that an SFL genre model for investigating spoken discourse can be successfully extended to investigate longer stretches of discourse than have previously been identified. The methodological contribution is to demonstrate how corpus techniques can be combined with SFL genre theory to investigate extended stretches of spoken discussion. The thesis will be of value to those working in the field of teaching spoken EAP/ ESAP as well as to materials developers.

A method for systematic artifact selection decision making

Artifact selection decisions typically involve the selection of one from a number of possible/candidate options (decision alternatives). In order to support such decisions, it is important to identify and recognize relevant key issues of problem solving and decision making (Albers, 1996; Harris, 1998a, 1998b; Jacobs & Holten, 1995; Loch & Conger, 1996; Rumble, 1991; Sauter, 1999; Simon, 1986). Sauter classifies four problem solving/decision making styles: (1) left-brain style, (2) right-brain style, (3) accommodating, and (4) integrated (Sauter, 1999). The left-brain style employs analytical and quantitative techniques and relies on rational and logical reasoning. In an effort to achieve predictability and minimize uncertainty, problems are explicitly defined, solution methods are determined, orderly information searches are conducted, and analysis is increasingly refined. Left-brain style decision making works best when it is possible to predict/control, measure, and quantify all relevant variables, and when information is complete. In direct contrast, right-brain style decision making is based on intuitive techniques—it places more emphasis on feelings than facts. Accommodating decision makers use their non-dominant style when they realize that it will work best in a given situation. Lastly, integrated style decision makers are able to combine the left- and right-brain styles—they use analytical processes to filter information and intuition to contend with uncertainty and complexity.

Filling knowledge gaps:knowledge sharing across inter-firm boundaries and occupational communities

This paper explores the micro-level processes of interaction across organisational boundaries and occupational communities. Based on a retrospective processual analysis, this study shows that in filling knowledge gaps, organisations put in place a series of knowledge mechanisms, which lead them to socially interact with their alliance partners. Both the deployment of existing knowledge and the creation of new knowledge are based on processes of interaction, which derive from the interplay between alliance actors. It is suggested that through both social interaction and the use of boundary objects, individuals are able to communicate, engage in problem-solving activities and share their ideas to fill knowledge gaps.

Exploring supply chain related graduate programmes in the UK:a view on their structure, content and approaches

Research in skill requirements needed by supply chain/logistics (SCL) managers has been published since the early nineties, however, research on what is really taught (e.g. curriculum, learning philosophies) by universities is scant. This paper's aim is to fill in this gap by analysing SCL graduate teaching in the UK. Data from 50 SCL MSc programmes were collected from 43 universities. Findings indicate that there seems to be a gap emerging between industry's needs and the content of the programmes being offered. This gap concerns employability, problem based learning, international business and the acquisition of softer interpersonal and problem solving skills.

KnoFuss:a comprehensive architecture for knowledge fusion

We propose a knowledge fusion architecture KnoFuss based on the application of problem-solving methods technology, which allows methods for subtasks of the fusion process to be combined and the best methods to be selected, depending on the domain and task at hand.

A method for systematic artifact selection decision making

Artifact selection decisions typically involve the selection of one from a number of possible/candidate options (decision alternatives). In order to support such decisions, it is important to identify and recognize relevant key issues of problem solving and decision making (Albers, 1996; Harris, 1998a, 1998b; Jacobs & Holten, 1995; Loch & Conger, 1996; Rumble, 1991; Sauter, 1999; Simon, 1986). Sauter classifies four problem solving/decision making styles: (1) left-brain style, (2) right-brain style, (3) accommodating, and (4) integrated (Sauter, 1999). The left-brain style employs analytical and quantitative techniques and relies on rational and logical reasoning. In an effort to achieve predictability and minimize uncertainty, problems are explicitly defined, solution methods are determined, orderly information searches are conducted, and analysis is increasingly refined. Left-brain style decision making works best when it is possible to predict/control, measure, and quantify all relevant variables, and when information is complete. In direct contrast, right-brain style decision making is based on intuitive techniques—it places more emphasis on feelings than facts. Accommodating decision makers use their non-dominant style when they realize that it will work best in a given situation. Lastly, integrated style decision makers are able to combine the left- and right-brain styles—they use analytical processes to filter information and intuition to contend with uncertainty and complexity.

A variational conjugate gradient method for determining the fluid velocity of a slow viscous flow

The problem considered is that of determining the fluid velocity for linear hydrostatics Stokes flow of slow viscous fluids from measured velocity and fluid stress force on a part of the boundary of a bounded domain. A variational conjugate gradient iterative procedure is proposed based on solving a series of mixed well-posed boundary value problems for the Stokes operator and its adjoint. In order to stabilize the Cauchy problem, the iterations are ceased according to an optimal order discrepancy principle stopping criterion. Numerical results obtained using the boundary element method confirm that the procedure produces a convergent and stable numerical solution.

Engineering the future:CDIO as a tool for combating retention difficulties

With the demand for engineering graduates at what may be defined as an unprecedented high, many universities find themselves facing significant levels of student attrition-with high "drop-out levels" being a major issue in engineering education. In order to address this, Aston University in the UK has radically changed its undergraduate engineering education curriculum, introducing capstone CDIO (Conceive, Design, Implement, Operate) modules for all first year students studying Mechanical Engineering and Design. The introduction of CDIO is aimed at making project / problem based learning the norm. Utilising this approach, the learning and teaching in engineering purposefully aims to promote innovative thinking, thus equipping students with high-level problem-solving skills in a way that builds on theory whilst enhancing practical competencies and abilities. This chapter provides an overview of an Action Research study undertaken contemporaneously with the development, introduction, and administration of the first two semesters of CDIO. It identifies the challenges and benefits of the approach and concludes by arguing that whilst CDIO is hard work for staff, it can make a real difference to students' learning experiences, thereby positively impacting retention. © 2012, IGI Global.

Knowledge workers and their relationships with organisations

The programme of research examines knowledge workers, their relationships with organisations, and perceptions of management practices through the development of a theoretical model and knowledge worker archetypes. Knowledge worker and non-knowledge worker archetypes were established through an analysis of the extant literature. After an exploratory study of knowledge workers in a small software development company the archetypes were refined to include occupational classification data and the findings from Study 1. The Knowledge Worker Characteristics Model (KWCM) was developed as a theoretical framework in order to analyse differences between the two archetypes within the IT sector. The KWCM comprises of the variables within the job characteristics model, creativity, goal orientation, identification and commitment. In Study 2, a global web based survey was conducted. There were insufficient non-knowledge worker responses and therefore a cluster analysis was conducted to interrogate the archetypes further. This demonstrated, unexpectedly, that that there were marked differences within the knowledge worker archetypes suggesting the need to granulate the archetype further. The theoretical framework and the archetypes were revised (as programmers and web developers) and the research study was refocused to examine occupational differences within knowledge work. Findings from Study 2 identified that there were significant differences between the archetypes in relation to the KWCM. 19 semi-structured interviews were conducted in Study 3 in order to deepen the analysis using qualitative data and to examine perceptions of people management practices. The findings from both studies demonstrate that there were significant differences between the two groups but also that job challenge, problem solving, intrinsic reward and team identification were of importance to both groups of knowledge workers. This thesis presents an examination of knowledge workers’ perceptions of work, organisations and people management practices in the granulation and differentiation of occupational archetypes.

Development and psychometric evaluation of a new team effectiveness scale for all types of community adult mental health teams:a mixed-methods approach

Defining 'effectiveness' in the context of community mental health teams (CMHTs) has become increasingly difficult under the current pattern of provision required in National Health Service mental health services in England. The aim of this study was to establish the characteristics of multi-professional team working effectiveness in adult CMHTs to develop a new measure of CMHT effectiveness. The study was conducted between May and November 2010 and comprised two stages. Stage 1 used a formative evaluative approach based on the Productivity Measurement and Enhancement System to develop the scale with multiple stakeholder groups over a series of qualitative workshops held in various locations across England. Stage 2 analysed responses from a cross-sectional survey of 1500 members in 135 CMHTs from 11 Mental Health Trusts in England to determine the scale's psychometric properties. Based on an analysis of its structural validity and reliability, the resultant 20-item scale demonstrated good psychometric properties and captured one overall latent factor of CMHT effectiveness comprising seven dimensions: improved service user well-being, creative problem-solving, continuous care, inter-team working, respect between professionals, engagement with carers and therapeutic relationships with service users. The scale will be of significant value to CMHTs and healthcare commissioners both nationally and internationally for monitoring, evaluating and improving team functioning in practice.