Comparing different approach and avoidance models of learning and personality in the prediction of work, university, and leadership outcomes

Jackson (2005) developed a hybrid model of personality and learning, known as the learning styles profiler (LSP) which was designed to span biological, socio-cognitive, and experiential research foci of personality and learning research. The hybrid model argues that functional and dysfunctional learning outcomes can be best understood in terms of how cognitions and experiences control, discipline, and re-express the biologically based scale of sensation-seeking. In two studies with part-time workers undertaking tertiary education (N=137 and 58), established models of approach and avoidance from each of the three different research foci were compared with Jackson's hybrid model in their predictiveness of leadership, work, and university outcomes using self-report and supervisor ratings. Results showed that the hybrid model was generally optimal and, as hypothesized, that goal orientation was a mediator of sensation-seeking on outcomes (work performance, university performance, leader behaviours, and counterproductive work behaviour). Our studies suggest that the hybrid model has considerable promise as a predictor of work and educational outcomes as well as dysfunctional outcomes.

The valuation of travel time savings in least developed countries:theoretical and empirical challenges and results from a field study

In developed countries travel time savings can account for as much as 80% of the overall benefits arising from transport infrastructure and service improvements. In developing countries they are generally ignored in transport project appraisals, notwithstanding their importance. One of the reasons for ignoring these benefits in the developing countries is that there is insufficient empirical evidence to support the conventional models for valuing travel time where work patterns, particularly of the poor, are diverse and it is difficult to distinguish between work and non-work activities. The exclusion of time saving benefits may lead to a bias against investment decisions that benefit the poor and understate the poverty reduction potential of transport investments in Least Developed Countries (LDCs). This is because the poor undertake most travel and transport by walking and headloading on local roads, tracks and paths and improvements of local infrastructure and services bring large time saving benefits for them through modal shifts. The paper reports on an empirical study to develop a methodology for valuing rural travel time savings in the LDCs. Apart from identifying the theoretical and empirical issues in valuing travel time savings in the LDCs, the paper presents and discusses the results of an analysis of data from Bangladesh. Some of the study findings challenge the conventional wisdom concerning the time saving values. The Bangladesh study suggests that the western concept of dividing travel time savings into working and non-working time savings is broadly valid in the developing country context. The study validates the use of preference methods in valuing non-working time saving values. However, stated preference (SP) method is more appropriate than revealed preference (RP) method.

Updating finite element models using measured vibration data

The modelling of mechanical structures using finite element analysis has become an indispensable stage in the design of new components and products. Once the theoretical design has been optimised a prototype may be constructed and tested. What can the engineer do if the measured and theoretically predicted vibration characteristics of the structure are significantly different? This thesis considers the problems of changing the parameters of the finite element model to improve the correlation between a physical structure and its mathematical model. Two new methods are introduced to perform the systematic parameter updating. The first uses the measured modal model to derive the parameter values with the minimum variance. The user must provide estimates for the variance of the theoretical parameter values and the measured data. Previous authors using similar methods have assumed that the estimated parameters and measured modal properties are statistically independent. This will generally be the case during the first iteration but will not be the case subsequently. The second method updates the parameters directly from the frequency response functions. The order of the finite element model of the structure is reduced as a function of the unknown parameters. A method related to a weighted equation error algorithm is used to update the parameters. After each iteration the weighting changes so that on convergence the output error is minimised. The suggested methods are extensively tested using simulated data. An H frame is then used to demonstrate the algorithms on a physical structure.

Computer aided design and manufacture for three dimensional milling

Advances in both computer technology and the necessary mathematical models capable of capturing the geometry of arbitarily shaped objects has led to the development in this thesis of a surface generation package called 'IBSCURF' aimed at providing a more economically viable solution to free-form surface manufacture. A suit of computer programs written in FORTRAN 77 has been developed to provide computer aids for every aspect of work in designing and machining free-form surfaces. A vector-valued parametric method was used for shape description and a lofting technique employed for the construction of the surface. The development of the package 'IBSCURF' consists of two phases. The first deals with CAD. The design process commences in defining the cross-sections which are represented by uniform B-spline curves as approximations to give polygons. The order of the curve and the position and number of the polygon vertices can be used as parameters for the modification to achieve the required curves. When the definitions of the sectional curves is complete, the surface is interpolated over them by cubic cardinal splines. To use the CAD function of the package to design a mould for a plastic handle, a mathematical model was developed. To facilitate the integration of design and machining using the mathematical representation of the surface, the second phase of the package is concerned with CAM which enables the generation of tool offset positions for ball-nosed cutters and a general post-processor has been developed which automatically generates NC tape programs for any CNC milling machine. The two phases of these programs have been successfully implemented, as a CAD/CAM package for free-form surfaces on the VAX 11/750 super-minicomputer with graphics facilities for displaying drawings interactively on the terminal screen. The development of this package has been beneficial in all aspects of design and machining of free form surfaces.

Productivity analysis and measurement

The state of the art in productivity measurement and analysis shows a gap between simple methods having little relevance in practice and sophisticated mathematical theory which is unwieldy for strategic and tactical planning purposes, -particularly at company level. An extension is made in this thesis to the method of productivity measurement and analysis based on the concept of added value, appropriate to those companies in which the materials, bought-in parts and services change substantially and a number of plants and inter-related units are involved in providing components for final assembly. Reviews and comparisons of productivity measurement dealing with alternative indices and their problems have been made and appropriate solutions put forward to productivity analysis in general and the added value method in particular. Based on this concept and method, three kinds of computerised models two of them deterministic, called sensitivity analysis and deterministic appraisal, and the third one, stochastic, called risk simulation, have been developed to cope with the planning of productivity and productivity growth with reference to the changes in their component variables, ranging from a single value 'to• a class interval of values of a productivity distribution. The models are designed to be flexible and can be adjusted according to the available computer capacity expected accuracy and 'presentation of the output. The stochastic model is based on the assumption of statistical independence between individual variables and the existence of normality in their probability distributions. The component variables have been forecasted using polynomials of degree four. This model is tested by comparisons of its behaviour with that of mathematical model using real historical data from British Leyland, and the results were satisfactory within acceptable levels of accuracy. Modifications to the model and its statistical treatment have been made as required. The results of applying these measurements and planning models to the British motor vehicle manufacturing companies are presented and discussed.

The mathematical modelling of the environmental performance of buildings as an aid in the design process

This thesis is a theoretical study of the accuracy and usability of models that attempt to represent the environmental control system of buildings in order to improve environmental design. These models have evolved from crude representations of a building and its environment through to an accurate representation of the dynamic characteristics of the environmental stimuli on buildings. Each generation of models has had its own particular influence on built form. This thesis analyses the theory, structure and data of such models in terms of their accuracy of simulation and therefore their validity in influencing built form. The models are also analysed in terms of their compatability with the design process and hence their ability to aid designers. The conclusions are that such models are unlikely to improve environmental performance since: a the models can only be applied to a limited number of building types, b they can only be applied to a restricted number of the characteristics of a design, c they can only be employed after many major environmental decisions have been made, d the data used in models is inadequate and unrepresentative, e models do not account for occupant interaction in environmental control. It is argued that further improvements in the accuracy of simulation of environmental control will not significantly improve environmental design. This is based on the premise that strategic environmental decisions are made at the conceptual stages of design whereas models influence the detailed stages of design. It is hypothesised that if models are to improve environmental design it must be through the analysis of building typologies which provides a method of feedback between models and the conceptual stages of design. Field studies are presented to describe a method by which typologies can be analysed and a theoretical framework is described which provides a basis for further research into the implications of the morphology of buildings on environmental design.

Constructing institutional change: emergence, contestation and convergence of business models in the field of Java application servers

How are innovative new business models established if organizations constantly compare themselves against existing criteria and expectations? The objective is to address this question from the perspective of innovators and their ability to redefine established expectations and evaluation criteria. The research questions ask whether there are discernible patterns of discursive action through which innovators theorize institutional change and what role such theorizations play for mobilizing support and realizing change projects. These questions are investigated through a case study on a critical area of enterprise computing software, Java application servers. In the present case, business practices and models were already well established among incumbents with critical market areas allocated to few dominant firms. Fringe players started experimenting with a new business approach of selling services around freely available opensource application servers. While most new players struggled, one new entrant succeeded in leading incumbents to adopt and compete on the new model. The case demonstrates that innovative and substantially new models and practices are established in organizational fields when innovators are able to refine expectations and evaluation criteria within an organisational field. The study addresses the theoretical paradox of embedded agency. Actors who are embedded in prevailing institutional logics and structures find it hard to perceive potentially disruptive opportunities that fall outside existing ways of doing things. Changing prevailing institutional logics and structures requires strategic and institutional work aimed at overcoming barriers to innovation. The study addresses this problem through the lens of (new) institutional theory. This discourse methodology traces the process through which innovators were able to establish a new social and business model in the field.

Modelling data and voice traffic over IP networks using continuous-time Markov models

Common approaches to IP-traffic modelling have featured the use of stochastic models, based on the Markov property, which can be classified into black box and white box models based on the approach used for modelling traffic. White box models, are simple to understand, transparent and have a physical meaning attributed to each of the associated parameters. To exploit this key advantage, this thesis explores the use of simple classic continuous-time Markov models based on a white box approach, to model, not only the network traffic statistics but also the source behaviour with respect to the network and application. The thesis is divided into two parts: The first part focuses on the use of simple Markov and Semi-Markov traffic models, starting from the simplest two-state model moving upwards to n-state models with Poisson and non-Poisson statistics. The thesis then introduces the convenient to use, mathematically derived, Gaussian Markov models which are used to model the measured network IP traffic statistics. As one of the most significant contributions, the thesis establishes the significance of the second-order density statistics as it reveals that, in contrast to first-order density, they carry much more unique information on traffic sources and behaviour. The thesis then exploits the use of Gaussian Markov models to model these unique features and finally shows how the use of simple classic Markov models coupled with use of second-order density statistics provides an excellent tool for capturing maximum traffic detail, which in itself is the essence of good traffic modelling. The second part of the thesis, studies the ON-OFF characteristics of VoIP traffic with reference to accurate measurements of the ON and OFF periods, made from a large multi-lingual database of over 100 hours worth of VoIP call recordings. The impact of the language, prosodic structure and speech rate of the speaker on the statistics of the ON-OFF periods is analysed and relevant conclusions are presented. Finally, an ON-OFF VoIP source model with log-normal transitions is contributed as an ideal candidate to model VoIP traffic and the results of this model are compared with those of previously published work.

Concepts and methods of quantitative assessment of risk to groundwater resources

This work presents a two-dimensional approach of risk assessment method based on the quantification of the probability of the occurrence of contaminant source terms, as well as the assessment of the resultant impacts. The risk is calculated using Monte Carlo simulation methods whereby synthetic contaminant source terms were generated to the same distribution as historically occurring pollution events or a priori potential probability distribution. The spatial and temporal distributions of the generated contaminant concentrations at pre-defined monitoring points within the aquifer were then simulated from repeated realisations using integrated mathematical models. The number of times when user defined ranges of concentration magnitudes were exceeded is quantified as risk. The utilities of the method were demonstrated using hypothetical scenarios, and the risk of pollution from a number of sources all occurring by chance together was evaluated. The results are presented in the form of charts and spatial maps. The generated risk maps show the risk of pollution at each observation borehole, as well as the trends within the study area. This capability to generate synthetic pollution events from numerous potential sources of pollution based on historical frequency of their occurrence proved to be a great asset to the method, and a large benefit over the contemporary methods.

Assessment of different formulations of oral Mycobacterium bovis Bacille Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccine in rodent models for immunogenicity and protection against aerosol challenge with M-bovis

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) caused by infection with Mycobacterium bovis is causing considerable economic loss to farmers and Government in the United Kingdom as its incidence is increasing. Efforts to control bTB in the UK are hampered by the infection in Eurasian badgers (Metes metes) that represent a wildlife reservoir and source of recurrent M. bovis exposure to cattle. Vaccination of badgers with the human TB vaccine, M. bovis Bacille Calmette-Guerin (BCG), in oral bait represents a possible disease control tool and holds the best prospect for reaching badger populations over a wide geographical area. Using mouse and guinea pig models, we evaluated the immunogenicity and protective efficacy, respectively, of candidate badger oral vaccines based on formulation of BCG in lipid matrix, alginate beads, or a novel microcapsular hybrid of both lipid and alginate. Two different oral doses of BCG were evaluated in each formulation for their protective efficacy in guinea pigs, while a single dose was evaluated in mice. In mice, significant immune responses (based on lymphocyte proliferation and expression of IFN-gamma) were only seen with the lipid matrix and the lipid in alginate microcapsular formulation, corresponding to the isolation of viable BCG from alimentary tract lymph nodes. In guinea pigs, only BCG formulated in lipid matrix conferred protection to the spleen and lungs following aerosol route challenge with M. bovis. Protection was seen with delivery doses in the range 10(6)-10(7) CFU, although this was more consistent in the spleen at the higher dose. No protection in terms of organ CFU was seen with BCG administered in alginate beads or in lipid in alginate microcapsules, although 10(7) in the latter formulation conferred protection in terms of increasing body weight after challenge and a smaller lung to body weight ratio at necropsy. These results highlight the potential for lipid, rather than alginate, -based vaccine formulations as suitable delivery vehicles for an oral BCG vaccine in badgers.

Using architecture models to support the generation and operation of component-based adaptive systems

Modelling architectural information is particularly important because of the acknowledged crucial role of software architecture in raising the level of abstraction during development. In the MDE area, the level of abstraction of models has frequently been related to low-level design concepts. However, model-driven techniques can be further exploited to model software artefacts that take into account the architecture of the system and its changes according to variations of the environment. In this paper, we propose model-driven techniques and dynamic variability as concepts useful for modelling the dynamic fluctuation of the environment and its impact on the architecture. Using the mappings from the models to implementation, generative techniques allow the (semi) automatic generation of artefacts making the process more efficient and promoting software reuse. The automatic generation of configurations and reconfigurations from models provides the basis for safer execution. The architectural perspective offered by the models shift focus away from implementation details to the whole view of the system and its runtime change promoting high-level analysis. © 2009 Springer Berlin Heidelberg.

Verification and validation of numerical models of the transport of insulation debris

A combination of the two-fluid and drift flux models have been used to model the transport of fibrous debris. This debris is generated during loss of coolant accidents in the primary circuit of pressurized or boiling water nuclear reactors, as high pressure steam or water jets can damage adjacent insulation materials including mineral wool blankets. Fibre agglomerates released from the mineral wools may reach the containment sump strainers, where they can accumulate and compromise the long-term operation of the emergency core cooling system. Single-effect experiments of sedimentation in a quiescent rectangular column and sedimentation in a horizontal flow are used to verify and validate this particular application of the multiphase numerical models. The utilization of both modeling approaches allows a number of pseudocontinuous dispersed phases of spherical wetted agglomerates to be modeled simultaneously. Key effects on the transport of the fibre agglomerates are particle size, density and turbulent dispersion, as well as the relative viscosity of the fluid-fibre mixture.

A decision support system for supplier selection and order allocation in stochastic, multi-stakeholder and multi-criteria environments

Integrated supplier selection and order allocation is an important decision for both designing and operating supply chains. This decision is often influenced by the concerned stakeholders, suppliers, plant operators and customers in different tiers. As firms continue to seek competitive advantage through supply chain design and operations they aim to create optimized supply chains. This calls for on one hand consideration of multiple conflicting criteria and on the other hand consideration of uncertainties of demand and supply. Although there are studies on supplier selection using advanced mathematical models to cover a stochastic approach, multiple criteria decision making techniques and multiple stakeholder requirements separately, according to authors' knowledge there is no work that integrates these three aspects in a common framework. This paper proposes an integrated method for dealing with such problems using a combined Analytic Hierarchy Process-Quality Function Deployment (AHP-QFD) and chance constrained optimization algorithm approach that selects appropriate suppliers and allocates orders optimally between them. The effectiveness of the proposed decision support system has been demonstrated through application and validation in the bioenergy industry.

An investigation into the tension arising between natural language and mathematical language experienced by mechanical engineering students

This investigation is grounded within the concept of embodied cognition where the mind is considered to be part of a biological system. A first year undergraduate Mechanical Engineering cohort of students was tasked with explaining the behaviour of three balls of different masses being rolled down a ramp. The explanations given by the students highlighted the cognitive conflict between the everyday interpretation of the word energy and its mathematical use. The results showed that even after many years of schooling, students found it challenging to interpret the mathematics they had learned and relied upon pseudo-scientific notions to account for the behaviour of the balls.