Calendar effects and the pricing of risk:the UK evidence

For some time there has been a puzzle surrounding the seasonal behaviour of stock returns. This paper demonstrates that there is an asymmetric relationship between risk and return across the different months of the year. The paper finds that systematic risk is only priced during the months of January, April and July. Variance risk and firm size are priced during several months of the year including January. An analysis of the relative behaviour of size based securities reveals that firm capitalization makes a valuable contribution to the magnitude of risk premiums.

Board composition, ownership structure and dividend policies in an emerging market: further evidence from CASE 50

Purpose – The purpose of this study is to examine dividend policies in an emerging capital market, in a country undergoing a transitional period. Design/methodology/approach – Using pooled cross-sectional observations from the top 50 listed Egyptian firms between 2003 and 2005, this study examines the effect of board of directors’ composition and ownership structure on dividend policies in Egypt. Findings – It is found that there is a significant positive association between institutional ownership and firm performance, and both dividend decision and payout ratio. The results confirm that firms with a higher return on equity and a higher institutional ownership distribute higher levels of dividend. No significant association was found between board composition and dividend decisions or ratios. Originality/value – This study provides additional evidence of the applicability of the signalling model in the emerging market of Egypt. It was found that despite the high institutional ownership and the closely held nature of the firms, which imply lower agency costs, the payment of higher dividend was considered necessary to attract capital during this transitional period.

Large scale organisational intervention to improve patient safety in four UK hospitals:mixed method evaluation

Objectives: To conduct an independent evaluation of the first phase of the Health Foundation's Safer Patients Initiative (SPI), and to identify the net additional effect of SPI and any differences in changes in participating and non-participating NHS hospitals. Design: Mixed method evaluation involving five substudies, before and after design. Setting: NHS hospitals in United Kingdom. Participants: Four hospitals (one in each country in the UK) participating in the first phase of the SPI (SPI1); 18 control hospitals. Intervention: The SPI1 was a compound (multicomponent) organisational intervention delivered over 18 months that focused on improving the reliability of specific frontline care processes in designated clinical specialties and promoting organisational and cultural change. Results: Senior staff members were knowledgeable and enthusiastic about SPI1. There was a small (0.08 points on a 5 point scale) but significant (P<0.01) effect in favour of the SPI1 hospitals in one of 11 dimensions of the staff questionnaire (organisational climate). Qualitative evidence showed only modest penetration of SPI1 at medical ward level. Although SPI1 was designed to engage staff from the bottom up, it did not usually feel like this to those working on the wards, and questions about legitimacy of some aspects of SPI1 were raised. Of the five components to identify patients at risk of deterioration - monitoring of vital signs (14 items); routine tests (three items); evidence based standards specific to certain diseases (three items); prescribing errors (multiple items from the British National Formulary); and medical history taking (11 items) - there was little net difference between control and SPI1 hospitals, except in relation to quality of monitoring of acute medical patients, which improved on average over time across all hospitals. Recording of respiratory rate increased to a greater degree in SPI1 than in control hospitals; in the second six hours after admission recording increased from 40% (93) to 69% (165) in control hospitals and from 37% (141) to 78% (296) in SPI1 hospitals (odds ratio for "difference in difference" 2.1, 99% confidence interval 1.0 to 4.3; P=0.008). Use of a formal scoring system for patients with pneumonia also increased over time (from 2% (102) to 23% (111) in control hospitals and from 2% (170) to 9% (189) in SPI1 hospitals), which favoured controls and was not significant (0.3, 0.02 to 3.4; P=0.173). There were no improvements in the proportion of prescription errors and no effects that could be attributed to SPI1 in non-targeted generic areas (such as enhanced safety culture). On some measures, the lack of effect could be because compliance was already high at baseline (such as use of steroids in over 85% of cases where indicated), but even when there was more room for improvement (such as in quality of medical history taking), there was no significant additional net effect of SPI1. There were no changes over time or between control and SPI1 hospitals in errors or rates of adverse events in patients in medical wards. Mortality increased from 11% (27) to 16% (39) among controls and decreased from17%(63) to13%(49) among SPI1 hospitals, but the risk adjusted difference was not significant (0.5, 0.2 to 1.4; P=0.085). Poor care was a contributing factor in four of the 178 deaths identified by review of case notes. The survey of patients showed no significant differences apart from an increase in perception of cleanliness in favour of SPI1 hospitals. Conclusions The introduction of SPI1 was associated with improvements in one of the types of clinical process studied (monitoring of vital signs) and one measure of staff perceptions of organisational climate. There was no additional effect of SPI1 on other targeted issues nor on other measures of generic organisational strengthening.

Developing a probabilistic graphical structure from a model of mental-health clinical risk expertise

This paper explores the process of developing a principled approach for translating a model of mental-health risk expertise into a probabilistic graphical structure. The Galatean Risk Screening Tool [1] is a psychological model for mental health risk assessment based on fuzzy sets. This paper details how the knowledge encapsulated in the psychological model was used to develop the structure of the probability graph by exploiting the semantics of the clinical expertise. These semantics are formalised by a detailed specification for an XML structure used to represent the expertise. The component parts were then mapped to equivalent probabilistic graphical structures such as Bayesian Belief Nets and Markov Random Fields to produce a composite chain graph that provides a probabilistic classification of risk expertise to complement the expert clinical judgements. © Springer-Verlag 2010.

Managing projects in fast track:a case of public sector organisation in India

Completing projects faster than the normal duration is always a challenge to the management of any project, as it often demands many paradigm shifts. Opportunities of globalization, competition from private sectors and multinationals force the management of public sector organizations in the Indian petroleum sector to take various aggressive strategies to maintain their profitability. Constructing infrastructure for handling petroleum products is one of them. Moreover, these projects are required to be completed in faster duration compared to normal schedules to remain competitive, to get faster return on investment, and to give longer project life. However, using conventional tools and techniques of project management, it is impossible to handle the problem of reducing the project duration from a normal period. This study proposes the use of concurrent engineering in managing projects for radically reducing project duration. The phases of the project are accomplished concurrently/simultaneously instead of in a series. The complexities that arise in managing projects are tackled through restructuring project organization, improving management commitment, strengthening project-planning activities, ensuring project quality, managing project risk objectively and integrating project activities through management information systems. These would not only ensure completion of projects in fast track, but also improve project effectiveness in terms of quality, cost effectiveness, team building, etc. and in turn overall productivity of the project organization would improve.

Reliability modelling and verification of manufacturing processes based on process knowledge management

Reliability modelling and verification is indispensable in modern manufacturing, especially for product development risk reduction. Based on the discussion of the deficiencies of traditional reliability modelling methods for process reliability, a novel modelling method is presented herein that draws upon a knowledge network of process scenarios based on the analytic network process (ANP). An integration framework of manufacturing process reliability and product quality is presented together with a product development and reliability verification process. According to the roles of key characteristics (KCs) in manufacturing processes, KCs are organised into four clusters, that is, product KCs, material KCs, operation KCs and equipment KCs, which represent the process knowledge network of manufacturing processes. A mathematical model and algorithm is developed for calculating the reliability requirements of KCs with respect to different manufacturing process scenarios. A case study on valve-sleeve component manufacturing is provided as an application example of the new reliability modelling and verification procedure. This methodology is applied in the valve-sleeve component manufacturing processes to manage and deploy production resources.

Imagined intergroup contact facilitates intercultural communication for college students on academic exchange programs

Imagined intergroup contact (Crisp & Turner, 2009) is a new cognitive intervention designed to improve intergroup relations. In two studies, we examined whether it could also facilitate intercultural communication among international students and host country natives engaged in a college exchange program. In Study 1, international students who had recently arrived in Italy and participated in an imagined contact session displayed increased self-disclosure toward, and improved evaluation of, host country natives. In Study 2, Italian students mentally simulated positive contact with an unknown native from the host country prior to leaving for the exchange. Results from an online questionnaire administered on their return (on average, more than 7 months after the imagery task) revealed that participants who imagined contact reported spending more time with natives during the stay and enhanced outgroup evaluation, via reduced intergroup anxiety. Implications for enhancing the quality and effectiveness of college student exchange programs are discussed.

Reviewing the hedge funds literature II:hedge funds' returns and risk management characteristics

This paper summarizes the literature on hedge funds (HFs) developed over the last two decades, particularly that which relates to risk management characteristics (a companion piece investigates the managerial characteristics of HFs). It discusses the successes and the shortfalls to date in developing more sophisticated risk management frameworks and tools to measure and monitor HF risks, and the empirical evidence on the role of the HFs and their investment behaviour and risk management practices on the stability of the financial system. It also classifies the HF literature considering the most recent contributions and, particularly, the regulatory developments after the 2007 financial crisis.

An exploratory study of the utilisation of the UK's Prudential Borrowing Framework

This article considers the utilisation of the UK’s Prudential Borrowing Framework (PBF) and the associated Prudential Code for local government capital finance. It finds that the increased flexibility and local freedom are at the cost of less financial certainty in terms of the risks borne by local authorities and local tax payers. The PBF seems to encourage a less formal approach to risk, being considered inevitable and handled if and when adverse risk outcomes occur. Consequently capital projects may lack affordability, sustainability and prudence. The Prudential Indicators required by the Code are not easily understood by non-specialists and their calculation cannot be used to replace sound judgement or to identify the best financing option.

Leadership development: the role of developmental readiness, personality dispositions, and individual values

Increased awareness of the crucial role of leadership as a competitive advantage for organisations (McCall, 1998; Petrick, Scherer, Brodzinski, Quinn, & Ainina, 1999) has led to billions spent on leadership development programmes and training (Avolio & Hannah, 2008). However, research reports confusing and contradictory evidence regarding return on investment and developmental outcomes, and a lot of variance has been observed across studies (Avolio, Reichard, Hannah, Walumbwa, & Chan, 2009). The purpose of this thesis is to understand the mechanisms underlying this variability in leadership development. Of the many factors at play in the process, such as programme design and delivery, organisational support, and perceptions of relevance (Mabey, 2002; Day, Harrison, & Halpin, 2009), individual differences and characteristics stand out. One way in which individuals differ is in their Developmental Readiness (DR), a concept recently introduced in the literature that may well explain this variance and which has been proposed to accelerate development (Avolio & Hannah, 2008, 2009). Building on previous work, DR is introduced and conceptualised somewhat differently. In this study, DR is construed of self-awareness, self-regulation, and self-motivation, proposed by Day (2000) to be the backbones of leadership development. DR is suggested to moderate the developmental process. Furthermore, personality dispositions and individual values are proposed to be precursors of DR. The empirical research conducted uses a pre-test post-test quasi-experimental design. Before conducting the study, though, both a measure of Developmental Readiness and a competency profiling measure are tested in two pilot studies. Results do not find evidence of a direct effect of leadership development programmes on development, but do support an interactive effect between DR and leadership development programmes. Personality dispositions Agreeableness, Conscientiousness, and Openness to Experience and value orientations Conservation, Open, and Closed Orientation are found to significantly predict DR. Finally, the theoretical and practical implications of findings are discussed.

A study in Britain and France of the development of cross-cultural in-house sales training using distance learning.

The thesis is concerned with cross-cultural distance learning in two countries: Great Britain and France. Taking the example of in-house sales training, it argues that it is possible to develop courses for use in two or more countries of differing culture and language. Two courses were developed by the researcher. Both were essentially print-based distance-learning courses designed to help salespeople achieve a better understanding of their customers. One used a quantitative, the other qualitative approach. One considered the concept of the return on investment and the other, for which a video support was also developed, considered the analysis of a customer's needs. Part 1 of the thesis considers differences in the training context between France and Britain followed by a review of the learning process with reference to distance learning. Part 2 looks at the choice of training medium course design and evaluation and sets out the methodology adopted, including problems encountered in this type of fieldwork. Part 3 analyses the data and draws conclusions from the findings, before offering a series of guidelines for those concerned with the development of cross-cultural in-house training courses. The results of the field tests on the two courses were analysed in relation to the socio-cultural, educational and experiential background of the learners as well as their preferred learning styles. The thesis argues that it is possible to develop effective in-house sales training courses to be used in two cultures and identifies key considerations which need to be taken into account when carrying out this type of work.

Impact of RFID in reverse logistics

This paper aims to discuss the recent literature on Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) and reverse logistics (RL). Particular attention is applied to the bullwhip effect and its increase as RL activities are integrated into the supply chain. RFID is investigated as a tool to assist with integrating reverse and forward logistics into a seamless supply chain and reduce the bullwhip effect. However, further research is required within this area and in particular the return on investment for RFID-enabled integrated systems.

The development and diffusion of industrial robots

This thesis describes the history of robots and explains the reasons for the international differences in robot diffusion, and the differences in the diffusion of various robot applications with reference to the UK. As opposed to most of the literature, diffusion is examined with an integrated and interdisciplinary perspective. Robot technology evolves from the interaction of development, supply and manufacture, adoption, and promotion. activities. Emphasis is given to the analysis of adoption, at present the most important limiting factor of robot advancement in the UK. Technical development is inferred from a comparison of surveys on equipment, and from the topics of ten years of symposia papers. This classification of papers is also used to highlight the international and institutional differences in robot development. Analysis of the growth in robot supply, manufacture, and use is made from statistics compiled. A series of interviews with users and potential users serves to illustrate the factors and implications of the adoption of different robot systems in the UK. Adoption pioneering takes place when several conditions exist: when the technology is compatible with the firm, when its advantages outweigh its disadvantages, and particularly when a climate exists which encourages the managerial involvement and the labour acceptance. The degree of compatibility (technical, methodological, organisational, and economic) and the consequences (profitability, labour impacts, and managerial effects) of different robot systems (transfer, manipulative, processing, and assembly) are determined by various aspects of manufacturing operations (complexity, automation, integration, labour tasks, and working conditions). The climate for adoption pioneering is basically determined by the performance of firms. The firms' policies on capital investment have as decisive a role in determining the profitability of robots as their total labour costs. The performance of the motor car industry and its machine builders explains, more than any other factor, the present state of robot advancement in the UK.

Implementation challenges of application of radio frequency identification (RFID) in warehouse

Warehouse is an essential component in the supply chain, linking the chain partners and providing them with functions of product storage, inbound and outbound operations along with value-added processes. Allocation of warehouse resources should be efficient and effective to achieve optimum productivity and reduce operational costs. Radio frequency identification (RFID) is a technology capable of providing real-time information about supply chain operations. It has been used by warehousing and logistic enterprises to achieve reduced shrinkage, improved material handling and tracking as well as increased accuracy of data collection. However, both academics and practitioners express concerns about challenges to RFID adoption in the supply chain. This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the problems encountered in RFID implementation at warehouses, discussing the theoretical and practical adoption barriers and causes of not achieving full potential of the technology. Lack of foreseeable return on investment (ROI) and high costs are the most commonly reported obstacles. Variety of standards and radio wave frequencies are identified as source of concern for decision makers. Inaccurate performance of the RFID within the warehouse environment is examined. Description of integration challenges between warehouse management system and RFID technology is given. The paper discusses the existing solutions to technological, investment and performance RFID adoption barriers. Factors to consider when implementing the RFID technology are given to help alleviate implementation problems. By illustrating the challenges of RFID in the warehouse environment and discussing possible solutions the paper aims to help both academics and practitioners to focus on key areas constituting an obstacle to the technology growth. As more studies will address these challenges, the realisation of RFID benefits for warehouses and supply chain will become a reality.

RFID adoption issues in the warehouse

In recent years the increased interest in introducing radio frequency technology (RFID) in warehousing was observed. First adopters of RFID reported numerous benefits, which included: reduced shrinkage, real-time tracking and better accuracy of data collection. Along with the academic and industrial discussion on benefits which can be achieved in RFID enabled warehouses there are reports on issues related to adoption of RFID technology in warehousing. This paper reviews results of scientific reports of RFID implementation in warehouses and discusses the adoption barriers and causes of not achieving full potential of the technology. Following adoption barriers are identified and set in warehousing context: lack of forseeable return on investment (ROI), unreliable performance of RFID systems, standarisation, integration with legacy systems and privacy/security concerns. As more studies will address these challenges, the realisation of RFID benefits for warehouses will become reality.