Mathematical modelling of patient risks in a hospital environment, using multiple regression analysis

The aim of this research work was primarily to examine the relevance of patient parameters, ward structures, procedures and practices, in respect of the potential hazards of wound cross-infection and nasal colonisation with multiple resistant strains of Staphylococcus aureus, which it is thought might provide a useful indication of a patient's general susceptibility to wound infection. Information from a large cross-sectional survey involving 12,000 patients from some 41 hospitals and 375 wards was collected over a five-year period from 1967-72, and its validity checked before any subsequent analysis was carried out. Many environmental factors and procedures which had previously been thought (but never conclusively proved) to have an influence on wound infection or nasal colonisation rates, were assessed, and subsequently dismissed as not being significant, provided that the standard of the current range of practices and procedures is maintained and not allowed to deteriorate. Retrospective analysis revealed that the probability of wound infection was influenced by the patient's age, duration of pre-operative hospitalisation, sex, type of wound, presence and type of drain, number of patients in ward, and other special risk factors, whilst nasal colonisation was found to be influenced by the patient's age, total duration of hospitalisation, sex, antibiotics, proportion of occupied beds in the ward, average distance between bed centres and special risk factors. A multi-variate regression analysis technique was used to develop statistical models, consisting of variable patient and environmental factors which were found to have a significant influence on the risks pertaining to wound infection and nasal colonisation. A relationship between wound infection and nasal colonisation was then established and this led to the development of a more advanced model for predicting wound infections, taking advantage of the additional knowledge of the patient's state of nasal colonisation prior to operation.

Topographic, haemodynamic and psychophysical investigation of glaucomatous optic neuropathy

Loss of optic nerve head (ONH) axons in primary open angle glaucoma (POAG) has been attributed to both mechanical and vascular factors. Confocal scanning laser ophthalmoscopy (cSLO) provides a promising tool for the topographic follow-up of the ONH in glaucoma, while scanning laser Doppler flowmetry (SLDF) facilitates the rapid non-invasive assessment of retinal capillary blood flow. The purposes of these investigations were to optimise the techniques and explore their potential to classify and monitor disease. Preliminary investigations explored the reproducibility and validity of cSLO and SLDF and showed that: For cSLO: In a model eye, measurements are accurate over a range of axial lengths. For best reproducibility, seven images per visit are required, with a contour line located on Elschnig's scleral ring and transferred automatically between images. For SLDF: Three perfusion images are required for optimum reproducibility. Physiological changes induced by gas perturbation can be measured. Cross-sectional comparison of groups of normal subjects and early POAG patients showed that: cSLO parameters differentiate the early POAG group. Blood volume measured by SLDF showed group differences in superior nasal retina only. Longitudinal investigation of ONH topography, haemodynamic and visual field indices in normal subjects and POAG patients showed that: cSLO detects topographical change over time more frequently in the POAG group. Important parameters include: C:D area ratio, cup and rim area, mean depth in contour, volumes above and below reference and surface. Factor analysis identified "cup" and "rim" factors that can be used to detect change over time in individual patients. Blood flow changes were most apparent in the inferior nasal peripapillary retina of the POAG group. Perimetry is of clinical value for the identification of glaucoma but is less sensitive than cSLO for monitoring glaucomatous change.

Dimensional changes in the ageing cornea

The study investigated the central and peripheral corneal characteristics of groups of subjects from 20 to 90 years of age to assist the understanding of ageing changes in the cornea, and to see whether relationships between ocular parameters were revealed. After age 45 the corneal horizontal radius of curvature gradually decreased with age. This trend was shown by the Aston University subjects (group B). The effect was very significant for the hospital patients undergoing biometry before cataract extraction operation (group D). Vertical radius of curvature showed a slight decrease with age after age 45, but similar to corneal eccentricity, this showed no significant age effect. Corneal astigmatism progressed from with the rule towards against the rule, particularly after age 60. The shift seemed mainly due to the decreasing horizontal corneal curvature. In biometry no significant age relation was found for axial length, but a significant relation was found between curvature and axial length in the larger group D. Lens thickness showed a very significant relation to age and to axial length, but no significant relation to corneal curvature. Anterior chamber depth showed a very significant relation to age, lens thickness and axial length, but no significant relation to corneal curvature. A significant age effect was found for corneal thickness decreasing with age for the central, nasal and temporal regions of the right eye. Analysis of the biometry results indicated the influence of two major factors. Firstly, the natural growth of the eye in youth, leading to greater values of axial length, radius of corneal curvature, lens thickness and anterior chamber depth. Secondly, the typical ageing changes where the increasing lens thickness caused a reduction in anterior chamber depth. The decrease in corneal thickness with age shown in some corneal regions may be a sign of ageing changes in the tissue proteins and hydration balance.

Evaluation of videokeratoscopy

The present thesis evaluates various aspects of videokeratoscopes, which are now becoming increasingly popular in the investigation of corneal topography. The accuracy and repeatability of these instruments has been assessed mainly using spherical surfaces, however, few studies have assessed the performance of videokeratoscopes in measuring convex aspheric surfaces. Using two videokeratoscopes, the accuracy and repeatability of measurements using twelve aspheric surfaces is determined. Overall, the accuracy and repeatability of both instruments were acceptable, however, progressively flatter surfaces introduced greater errors in measurement. The possible reasons for these errors are discussed. The corneal surface is a biological structure lubricated by the precorneal tear film. The effects of variations in the tear film on the repeatability of videokeratoscopes have not been determined in terms of peripheral corneal measurements. The repeatability of two commercially available videokeratoscopes is assessed. The repeatability is found to be dependent on the point of measurement on the corneal surface. Typically, superior and nasal meridians exhibit poorest repeatability. It is suggested that interference of the ocular adnexa is responsible for the reduced repeatability. This localised reduction in repeatability will occur for all videokeratoscopes. Further, comparison with the keratometers and videokeratoscopes used show that measurements between these instruments are not interchangeable. The final stage of this thesis evaluates the performance of new algorithms. The characteristics of a new videokeratoscope are described. This videokeratoscope is used to test the accuracy of the new algorithms for twelve aspheric surfaces. The new algorithms are accurate in determining the shape of aspheric surfaces, more so than those algorithms proposed at present.

Biomechanical aspects of the anterior segment in human myopia

The thesis investigates the relationship between the biomechanical properties of the anterior human sclera and cornea in vivo using Schiotz tonometry (ST), rebound tonometry (RBT, iCare) and the Ocular Response Analyser (ORA, Reichert). Significant differences in properties were found to occur between scleral quadrants. Structural correlates for the differences were examined using Partial Coherent Interferometry (IOLMaster, Zeiss), Optical Coherent tomography (Visante OCT), rotating Scheimpflug photography (Pentacam, Oculus) and 3-D Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI). Subject groups were employed that allowed investigation of variation pertaining to ethnicity and refractive error. One hundred thirty-five young adult subjects were drawn from three ethnic groups: British-White (BW), British-South-Asian (BSA) and Hong-Kong-Chinese (HKC) comprising non-myopes and myopes. Principal observations: ST demonstrated significant regional variation in scleral resistance a) with lowest levels at quadrant superior-temporal and highest at inferior-nasal; b) with distance from the limbus, anterior locations showing greater resistance. Variations in resistance using RBT were similar to those found with ST; however the predominantly myopic HKC group had a greater overall mean resistance when compared to the BW-BSA group. OCT-derived scleral thickness measurements indicated the sclera to be thinner superiorly than inferiorly. Thickness varied with distance from the corneolimbal junction, with a decline from 1 to 2 mm followed by a successive increase from 3 to 7 mm. ORA data varied with ethnicity and refractive status; whilst axial length (AL) was associated with corneal biometrics for BW-BSA individuals it was associated with IOP in the HKC individuals. Complex interrelationships were found between ORA Additional-Waveform-Parameters and biometric data provided by the Pentacam. OCT indicated ciliary muscle thickness to be greater in myopia and more directly linked to posterior ocular volume (from MRI) than AL. Temporal surface areas (SAs, from MRI) were significantly smaller than nasal SAs in myopic eyes; globe bulbosity (from MRI) was constant across quadrants.

Shape of the posterior vitreous chamber in human emmetropia and myopia

PURPOSE - To compare posterior vitreous chamber shape in myopia to that in emmetropia. METHODS - Both eyes of 55 adult subjects were studied, 27 with emmetropia (MSE =-0.55; <+0.75D; mean +0.09 ±0.36D) and 28 with myopia (MSE -5.87 ±2.31D). Cycloplegic refraction was measured with a Shin Nippon autorefractor and anterior chamber depth and axial length with a Zeiss IOLMaster. Posterior vitreous chamber shapes were determined from T2-weighted MRI (3-Tesla) using procedures previously reported by our laboratory. 3-D surface model coordinates were assigned to nasal, temporal, superior and inferior quadrants and plotted in 2-D to illustrate the composite shape of respective quadrants posterior to the second nodal point. Spherical analogues of chamber shape were constructed to compare relative sphericity between refractive groups and quadrants. RESULTS - Differences in shape occurred in the region posterior to points of maximum globe width and were thus in general accord with an equatorial model of myopic expansion. Shape in emmetropia is categorised distinctly as that of an oblate ellipse and in myopia as an oblate ellipse of significantly less degree such that it approximates to a sphere. There was concordance between shape and retinotopic projection of respective quadrants into right, left, superior and inferior visual fields. CONCLUSIONS - The transition in shape from oblate ellipse to sphere with axial elongation supports the hypothesis that myopia may be a consequence of equatorial restriction associated with biomechanical anomalies of the ciliary apparatus. The synchronisation of quadrant shapes with retinotopic projection suggests that binocular growth is coordinated by processes that operate beyond the optic chiasm.

In vivo measurement of regional variation in anterior scleral resistance to Schiotz indentation

Purpose: Recent studies indicate that ocular and scleral rigidity is pertinent to our understanding of glaucoma, age related macular degeneration and the development and pathogenesis of myopia. The principal method of measuring ocular rigidity is by extrapolation of data from corneal indentation tonometry (Ko) using Friedenwald’s transformation algorithms. Using scleral indentation (Schiotz tonometry) we assess whether regional variations in resistance to indentation occur in vivo across the human anterior globe directly, with reference to the deflection of Schiotz scale readings. Methods: Data were collected from both eyes of 26 normal young adult subjects with a range of refractive error (mean spherical equivalent ± S.D. of -1.77 D ± 3.28 D, range -10.56 to +4.38 D). Schiotz tonometry (5.5 g & 7.5 g) was performed on the cornea and four scleral quadrants; supero-temporal (ST) and -nasal (SN), infero-temporal (IT) and -nasal (IN) approximately 8 mm posterior to the limbus. Results: Values of Ko (mm3)-1 were consistent with those previously reported (mean 0.0101 ± 0.0082, range 0.0019–0.0304). In regards to the sclera, significant differences (p < 0.001) were found across quadrants with indentation readings for both loads between means for the cornea and ST; ST and SN; ST and IT, ST and IN. Mean (±S.D.) scale readings for 5.5 g were: cornea 5.93 ± 1.14, ST 8.05 ± 1.58, IT 7.03 ± 1.86, SN 6.25 ± 1.10, IN 6.02 ± 1.49; and 7.5 g: cornea 9.26 ± 1.27, ST 11.56 ± 1.65, IT 10.31 ± 1.74, SN 9.91 ± 1.20, IN 9.50 ± 1.56. Conclusions: Significant regional variation was found in the resistance of the anterior sclera to indentation produced by the Schiotz tonometer.

Efficacy and toxicity of biocides used in handling sterile pharmaceuticals

This thesis has sought to investigate disinfection agents and procedures which may provide sanitisation against bacterial spores. A hard-surface disinfection test method was designed to ascertain which combinations of biocide and application method were most effective against bacterial spores. A combination of spraying and wiping was the most effective method of disinfection against Bacillus spores, with wiping found to play a key role in spore removal. The most efficacious of the biocides investigated was the 6% hydrogen peroxide. Vaporised Hydrogen Peroxide (VHP) gassing was more effective than traditional disinfection. In addition to efficacy, the toxic potential of the biocides to human airway epithelial cells in vitro was evaluated. Toxicity against human bronchial and nasal epithelial cells was assessed by determining cell viability, inflammatory status, protein oxidation and epithelial cell layer integrity. In addition the cell death mechanism following biocide exposure was investigated. There was a decrease in viable cells following exposure to all biocides when applied at practical concentrations. Almost all of the biocides tested elicited a pro-inflammatory response from the cells as measured by IL-8 production. All biocides increased protein oxidation as measured by thiol and carbonyl levels. Measurement of transepithelial electrical resistance and paracellular permeability indicated biocide-dependent decrease in epithelial cell barrier function. The cellular response was biased towards necrotic rather than apoptotic death. The use of biocides, although efficacious to some effects against Bacillus spores, will require careful monitoring for adverse health effects on personnel.

Keratoconus:a review

Keratoconus is the most common primary ectasia. It usually occurs in the second decade of life and affects both genders and all ethnicities. The estimated prevalence in the general population is 54 per 100,000. Ocular signs and symptoms vary depending on disease severity. Early forms normally go unnoticed unless corneal topography is performed. Disease progression is manifested with a loss of visual acuity which cannot be compensated for with spectacles. Corneal thinning frequently precedes ectasia. In moderate and advance cases, a hemosiderin arc or circle line, known as Fleischer's ring, is frequently seen around the cone base. Vogt's striaes, which are fine vertical lines produced by Descemet's membrane compression, is another characteristic sign. Most patients eventually develop corneal scarring. Munson's sign, a V-shape deformation of the lower eyelid in downward position; Rizzuti's sign, a bright reflection from the nasal area of the limbus when light is directed to the limbus temporal area; and breakages in Descemet's membrane causing acute stromal oedema, known as hydrops, are observed in advanced stages. Classifications based on morphology, disease evolution, ocular signs and index-based systems of keratoconus have been proposed. Theories into the genetic, biomechanical and biochemical causes of keratoconus have been suggested. Management varies depending on disease severity. Incipient cases are managed with spectacles, mild to moderate cases with contact lenses and severe cases can be treated with keratoplasty. This article provides a review on the definition, epidemiology, clinical features, classification, histopathology, aetiology and pathogenesis, and management and treatment strategies for keratoconus.

Ocular biometric correlates of ciliary muscle thickness in human myopia

Purpose - Anterior segment optical coherent tomography (AS-OCT) is used to further examine previous reports that ciliary muscle thickness (CMT) is increased in myopic eyes. With reference to temporal and nasal CMT, interrelationships between biometric and morphological characteristics of anterior and posterior segments are analysed for British-White and British-South-Asian adults with and without myopia. Methods - Data are presented for the right eyes of 62 subjects (British-White n = 39, British-South-Asian n = 23, aged 18–40 years) with a range of refractive error (mean spherical error (MSE (D)) -1.74 ± 3.26; range -10.06 to +4.38) and separated into myopes (MSE (D) <-0.50, range -10.06 to -0.56; n = 30) and non-myopes (MSE (D) =-0.50, -0.50 to +4.38; n = 32). Temporal and nasal ciliary muscle cross-sections were imaged using a Visante AS-OCT. Using Visante software, manual measures of nasal and temporal CMT (NCMT and TCMT respectively) were taken in successive posterior 1 mm steps from the scleral spur over a 3 mm distance (designated NCMT1, TCMT1 et seq). Measures of axial length and anterior chamber depth were taken with an IOLMaster biometer. MSE and corneal curvature (CC) measurements were taken with a Shin-Nippon auto-refractor. Magnetic resonance imaging was used to determine total ocular volume (OV) for 31 of the original subject group. Statistical comparisons and analyses were made using mixed repeated measures anovas, Pearson's correlation coefficient and stepwise forward multiple linear regression. Results - MSE was significantly associated with CMT, with thicker CMT2 and CMT3 being found in the myopic eyes (p = 0.002). In non-myopic eyes TCMT1, TCMT2, NCMT1 and NCMT2 correlated significantly with MSE, AL and OV (p < 0.05). In contrast, myopic eyes failed generally to exhibit a significant correlation between CMT, MSE and axial length but notably retained a significant correlation between OV, TCMT2, TCMT3, NCMT2 and NCMT3 (p < 0.05). OV was found to be a significantly better predictor of TCMT2 and TCMT3 than AL by approximately a factor of two (p < 0.001). Anterior chamber depth was significantly associated with both temporal and nasal CMT2 and CMT3; TCMT1 correlated positively with CC. Ethnicity had no significant effect on differences in CMT. Conclusions - Increased CMT is associated with myopia. We speculate that the lack of correlation in myopic subjects between CMT and axial length, but not between CMT and OV, is evidence that disrupted feedback between the fovea and ciliary apparatus occurs in myopia development.

The normal optic nerve variations in an optometric population:Possible ocular and systemic influences

Early detection of glaucoma relies on a detailed knowledge of how the normal optic nerve (ONH) varies within the population. The purpose of this study focused on two main areas; 1. To explore the optic nerve head appearance in the normal optometric population and compare the south Asian (principally Pakistani) with the European white population, correcting for possible ocular and non-ocular influences in a multiple regression model. The main findings were: • The optic discs of the South Asian (SA) and White European (WE) populations were not statistically different in size. The SA group possessed discs with increased cupping and thinner neuro-retinal rims (NRR) compared with the WE group. The SA group also demonstrated a more vertically oval shape than the WE population. These differences were significant at the p<0.01 level. • The upper limits of inter-eye asymmetry were: ≤0.2 for cup to disc area ratio, and 3mmHg for intra-ocular pressure (IOP) for both ethnic groups and this did not increase with age. IOP asymmetry did not vary with gender, ethnicity or a family history of glaucoma and was independent of ONH asymmetry. ONH and IOP asymmetry are therefore independent risk factors when screening for glaucoma for both ethnic groups. 2. To investigate the validity of the ISNT rule: inferior> superior> nasal> temporal NRR thickness in the optometric population. The main findings were: • As disc size increased the disc become rounder and less vertically oval in shape. Vertically oval discs had thicker superior and inferior NRRs and thinner nasal and temporal NRRs compared with rounder disc shapes due to cup shape being independent of disc shape. Vertically oval discs were therefore more likely to obey the ISNT rule than larger rounder discs. • The ISNT rule has a low adherence in our sample of normal eyes (5.7%). However, by removing the nasal sector to become the IST rule, 74.5% of normal eyes obeyed. SA eyes and female gender were more likely to obey the ISNT rule due to increased disc ovality. The IST rule is independent of disc shape and therefore more suitable for assessing discs from both ethnic backgrounds. Obeying the ISNT rule or IST rule was not related to disc or cup size.

Conjunctival UV autofluorescence - prevalence and risk factors

Purpose: Autofluorescence of ultraviolet (UV) light has been shown to occur in localised areas of the bulbar conjunctiva, which map to active cellular changes due to UV and environmental exposure. This study examined the presence of conjunctival UV autofluorescence in eye care practitioners (ECPs) across Europe and the Middle East and its associated risk factors. Method: Images were captured of 307 ECPs right eyes in the Czech Republic, Germany, Greece, Kuwait, Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, United Arab Emirates and the United Kingdom using a Nikon D100 camera and dual flash units through UV filters. UV autofluorescence was outlined using ImageJ software and the nasal and temporal area quantified. Subjects were required to complete a questionnaire on their demographics and lifestyle including general exposure to UV and refractive correction. Results: Average age of the subjects was 38.5±12.2 years (range 19-68) and 39.7% were male. Sixty-two percent of eyes had some conjunctival damage as indicated by UV autofluorescence. The average area of damage was higher (p=0.005) nasally (2.95±4.52mm2) than temporally (2.19±4.17mm2). The area of UV damage was not related to age (r=0.03, p=0.674), gender (p=0.194), self-reported sun exposure lifestyle (p>0.05), geographical location (p=0174), sunglasses use (p>0.05) or UV-blocking contact lens use (p>0.05), although it was higher in those wearing contact lenses with minimal UV-blocking and no spectacles (p=0.015). The area of UV damage was also less nasally in those who wore contact lenses and spectacles compared to those with no refractive correction use (p=0.011 nasal; p=0.958 temporal). Conclusion: UV conjunctival damage is common even in Europe, Kuwait and UAE, and among ECPs. The area of damage appears to be linked with the use of refractive correction, with greater damage nasally than temporally which may be explained by the peripheral light focusing effect.

The detection of kinin activity in contact lens wear

Many factors can be, and have been, attributed to the appearance of complications in lens wear, but the greatest is associated with deposition. Reduced acuity, irritation and inflammatory responses are often referred to as adverse reactions arising as a result of deposition. In this study, particular attention was paid to the potential role of adsorbed proteins in activating, mediating and/or stimulating a host immune response, i.e., the hypothesis that the adsorption of certain proteins from the tears and ocular surfaces may actively affect successful lens wear. In particular, the purpose of this study was to investigate the presence of a group of proteins previously undiscovered in the ocular environment. The intention was to target a family of proteins/glycoproteins that have become prominent recently in a variety of inflammatory responses and disorders at many other mucosal associated sites around the body, e.g. in nasal rhinitis and in joint inflammation. The protein cascade in question is the kinin family of inflammatory mediators. The aim was to investigate their presence in the ocular environment, specifically in relation to contact lens wear, and consequently assess the implications of their discovery. High molecular weight kininogen (HMWK), with its central role in kinin responses, was investigated initially as the marker of kinin activity, with subsequent members examined thereafter.

Regional variation in peripapillary retinal blood flow in primary open angle glaucoma:a follow-up study

Purpose: To investigate whether regional long-term changes in peripapillary retinal flow, measured by scanning laser Doppler flowmetry (SLDF), occur in patients with primary open angle glaucoma (POAG). Methods: 31 healthy volunteers (mean age: 65 8.3 years) and 33 POAG patients (mean age: 71.2 7.6 years) were followed up every 4 months for 16 months. Using SLDF, three images of the superior and inferior optic nerve head were obtained for each subject. A 1010-pixel frame was used to measure blood flow, volume and velocity in the four quadrants of the peripapillary retina. Central 24-2 visual field testing was carried out at each visit. Repeated measures analysis of covariance was used to assess change over time between the normal and POAG groups for the SLDF parameters. Univariate linear regression analysis for mean deviation and glaucoma change probability (GCP) analysis were used to identify visual field progression. Results: Blood volume, flow and velocity measured in the inferior nasal quadrant of the peripapillary retina decreased significantly over time for the POAG group compared to the normal group (p=0.0073, 0.0097, 0.0095 respectively). Overall, 2 glaucoma patients showed a significantly deteriorating MD slope, while 7 patients showed visual field progression with GPA. All of the patients progressing with GPA, showed change in the superior hemifield and, of those, 14% showed change in the inferior hemifield. Conclusion: Glaucoma patients showed a decrease in blood flow, volume and velocity in the inferior nasal peripapillary retina. A regional variation in microvascular retinal capillary blood flow may provide insight into the pathogenesis of glaucomatous optic neuropathy. Keywords: 331 blood supply • 554 retina • 624 visual fields

Nucleoside diphosphate kinase--a component of the [Na+1]- and [Cl-]-sensitive phosphorylation cascade in human and murine airway epithelium

We have shown that proteins within apically enriched fractions of human nasal respiratory epithelium vary their phosphohistidine content with ambient [Cl-] and other anion concentrations. This membrane-delimited phosphorylation cascade includes a multifunctional protein histidine kinase - nucleoside diphosphate kinase (NDPK). NDPK is itself a cascade component in both human and ovine airway, the self-phosphorylation of which is inhibited selectively by [Na+] in the presence of ATP (but not GTP). These findings led us to propose the existence of a dual anion-/cation-controlled phosphorylation-based "sensor" bound to the apical membrane. The present study showed that this cascade uses ATP to phosphorylate a group of proteins above 45 kDa (p45-group, identities unknown). Additionally, the Cl- dependence of ATP (but not GTP) phosphorylation is conditional on phosphatase activity and that interactions exist between the ATP- and GTP-phosphorylated components of the cascade under Cl--free conditions. As a prelude to studies in cystic fibrosis (CF) mice, we showed in the present study that NDPK is present and functionally active in normal murine airway. Since NDPK is essential for UTP synthesis and regulates fetal gut development, G proteins, K+channels, neutrophil-mediated inflammation and pancreatic secretion, the presence of ion-regulated NDPK protein in mouse airway epithelium might aid understanding of the pathogenesis of CF.