Bayesian error bars for regression

Regression problems are concerned with predicting the values of one or more continuous quantities, given the values of a number of input variables. For virtually every application of regression, however, it is also important to have an indication of the uncertainty in the predictions. Such uncertainties are expressed in terms of the error bars, which specify the standard deviation of the distribution of predictions about the mean. Accurate estimate of error bars is of practical importance especially when safety and reliability is an issue. The Bayesian view of regression leads naturally to two contributions to the error bars. The first arises from the intrinsic noise on the target data, while the second comes from the uncertainty in the values of the model parameters which manifests itself in the finite width of the posterior distribution over the space of these parameters. The Hessian matrix which involves the second derivatives of the error function with respect to the weights is needed for implementing the Bayesian formalism in general and estimating the error bars in particular. A study of different methods for evaluating this matrix is given with special emphasis on the outer product approximation method. The contribution of the uncertainty in model parameters to the error bars is a finite data size effect, which becomes negligible as the number of data points in the training set increases. A study of this contribution is given in relation to the distribution of data in input space. It is shown that the addition of data points to the training set can only reduce the local magnitude of the error bars or leave it unchanged. Using the asymptotic limit of an infinite data set, it is shown that the error bars have an approximate relation to the density of data in input space.

Characterisation and modification of hydrogel polymers

The work described in this thesis can be broadly divided into two sections. The first being the characterisation of hydrogel polymers in both their hydrated and dehydrated states and the second some aspects of the structural modification of polymers. The characterisation of hydrogel polymers in their dehydrated state (xerogels) involves such techniques as elemental analysis, pyrolysis gas liquid chromatography, infra-red spectroscopy, density determination and surface characterisation by contact angle measurements. The characterisation of some commercially available hydrogel materials was undertaken using such techniques and the results obtained were compared to laboratory synthesised systems in an attempt to assess the value of the combination of techniques employed. In the characterisation of hydrated polymers the amoumt and nature of water present is the single most important factor. The most convenient method of characterising this water involves the use of differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), coupled with total equilibrium water content measurements. DSC distinguishes between non-freezing and freezing water but in addition provides some information on the continuum of states in the freezing water fraction. Two aspects of the structural modification of hydrogel polymers were studied. The first involved the incorporation of acrylamide and substituted acryamide monomers into a copolymer system and an examination of the effect of this on the amino acid interaction of the polymers. The second was the attempted synthesis of cell surface analogues by the attachment of sugar type molecules to the polymer using a variety of reaction methods.

Safety and health in mines: the rise of bureaucracy in the coal mining industry and its results as evidenced by the public enquiry into an accident at Houghton Main Colliery

This thesis is concerned with certain aspects of the Public Inquiry into the accident at Houghton Main Colliery in June 1975. It examines whether prior to the accident there existed at the Colliery a situation in which too much reliance was being placed upon state regulation and too Iittle upon personal responsibility. I study the phenomenon of state regulation. This is done (a) by analysis of selected writings on state regulation/intervention/interference/bureaucracy (the words are used synonymously) over the last two hundred years, specifically those of Marx on the 1866 Committee on Mines, and (b) by studying Chadwick and Tremenheere, leading and contrasting "bureaucrats" of the mid-nineteenth century. The bureaucratisation of the mining industry over the period 1835-1954 is described, and it is demonstrated that the industry obtained and now possesses those characteristics outlined by Max Weber in his model of bureaucracy. I analyse criticisms of the model and find them to be relevant, in that they facilitate understanding both of the circumstances of the accident and of the Inquiry . Further understanding of the circumstances and causes of the accident was gained by attendance at the lnquiry and by interviewing many of those involved in the Inquiry. I analyse many aspects of the Inquiry - its objectives. structure, procedure and conflicting interests - and find that, although the Inquiry had many of the symbols of bureaucracy, it suffered not from " too much" outside interference. but rather from the coal mining industry's shared belief in its ability to solve its own problems. I found nothing to suggest that, prior to the accident, colliery personnel relied. or were encouraged to rely, "too much" upon state regulation.

Surface nanoscale axial photonics : robust fabrication of high-quality-factor microresonators

Recently introduced surface nanoscale axial photonics (SNAP) makes it possible to fabricate high-Q-factor microresonators and other photonic microdevices by dramatically small deformation of the optical fiber surface. To become a practical and robust technology, the SNAP platform requires methods enabling reproducible modification of the optical fiber radius at nanoscale. In this Letter, we demonstrate superaccurate fabrication of high-Q-factor microresonators by nanoscale modification of the optical fiber radius and refractive index using CO laser and UV excimer laser beam exposures. The achieved fabrication accuracy is better than 2Å in variation of the effective fiber radius. © 2011 Optical Society of America.

Variation methods in Bayesian image restoration

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Examining links between cognitive markers, movement initiation and change, and pedestrian safety in older adults

Objective: The purpose of this study was to determine the extent to which mobility indices (such as walking speed and postural sway), motor initiation, and cognitive function, specifically executive functions, including spatial planning, visual attention, and within participant variability, differentially predicted collisions in the near and far sides of the road with increasing age. Methods: Adults aged over 45 years participated in cognitive tests measuring executive function and visual attention (using Useful Field of View; UFoV®), mobility assessments (walking speed, sit-to-stand, self-reported mobility, and postural sway assessed using motion capture cameras), and gave road crossing choices in a two-way filmed real traffic pedestrian simulation. Results: A stepwise regression model of walking speed, start-up delay variability, and processing speed) explained 49.4% of the variance in near-side crossing errors. Walking speed, start-up delay measures (average & variability), and spatial planning explained 54.8% of the variance in far-side unsafe crossing errors. Start-up delay was predicted by walking speed only (explained 30.5%). Conclusion: Walking speed and start-up delay measures were consistent predictors of unsafe crossing behaviours. Cognitive measures, however, differentially predicted near-side errors (processing speed), and far-side errors (spatial planning). These findings offer potential contributions for identifying and rehabilitating at-risk older pedestrians.

Surface nanoscale axial photonics:robust fabrication of high-quality-factor microresonators

Recently introduced surface nanoscale axial photonics (SNAP) makes it possible to fabricate high-Q-factor microresonators and other photonic microdevices by dramatically small deformation of the optical fiber surface. To become a practical and robust technology, the SNAP platform requires methods enabling reproducible modification of the optical fiber radius at nanoscale. In this Letter, we demonstrate superaccurate fabrication of high-Q-factor microresonators by nanoscale modification of the optical fiber radius and refractive index using CO laser and UV excimer laser beam exposures. The achieved fabrication accuracy is better than 2Å in variation of the effective fiber radius. © 2011 Optical Society of America.

Emerging of human factor in risk analysis of home care service

Risk management in healthcare represents a group of various complex actions, implemented to improve the quality of healthcare services and guarantee the patients safety. Risks cannot be eliminated, but it can be controlled with different risk assessment methods derived from industrial applications and among these the Failure Mode Effect and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) is a largely used methodology. The main purpose of this work is the analysis of failure modes of the Home Care (HC) service provided by local healthcare unit of Naples (ASL NA1) to focus attention on human and non human factors according to the organization framework selected by WHO. © Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2014.

Investigating the role of capacitive coupling between the operating table and the return electrode of an electrosurgery unit in the modification of the current density distribution within the patients’ body

Background: Electrosurgery units are widely employed in modern surgery. Advances in technology have enhanced the safety of these devices, nevertheless, accidental burns are still regularly reported. This study focuses on possible causes of sacral burns as complication of the use of electrosurgery. Burns are caused by local densifications of the current, but the actual pathway of current within patient's body is unknown. Numerical electromagnetic analysis can help in understanding the issue. Methods: To this aim, an accurate heterogeneous model of human body (including seventy-seven different tissues), electrosurgery electrodes, operating table and mattress was build to resemble a typical surgery condition. The patient lays supine on the mattress with the active electrode placed onto the thorax and the return electrode on his back. Common operating frequencies of electrosurgery units were considered. Finite Difference Time Domain electromagnetic analysis was carried out to compute the spatial distribution of current density within the patient's body. A differential analysis by changing the electrical properties of the operating table from a conductor to an insulator was also performed. Results: Results revealed that distributed capacitive coupling between patient body and the conductive operating table offers an alternative path to the electrosurgery current. The patient's anatomy, the positioning and the different electromagnetic properties of tissues promote a densification of the current at the head and sacral region. In particular, high values of current density were located behind the sacral bone and beneath the skin. This did not occur in the case of non-conductive operating table. Conclusion: Results of the simulation highlight the role played from capacitive couplings between the return electrode and the conductive operating table. The concentration of current density may result in an undesired rise in temperature, originating burns in body region far from the electrodes. This outcome is concordant with the type of surgery-related sacral burns reported in literature. Such burns cannot be immediately detected after surgery, but appear later and can be confused with bedsores. In addition, the dosimetric analysis suggests that reducing the capacity coupling between the return electrode and the operating table can decrease or avoid this problem. © 2013 Bifulco et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.