Estimating parameters in stochastic systems:a variational Bayesian approach

This work is concerned with approximate inference in dynamical systems, from a variational Bayesian perspective. When modelling real world dynamical systems, stochastic differential equations appear as a natural choice, mainly because of their ability to model the noise of the system by adding a variation of some stochastic process to the deterministic dynamics. Hence, inference in such processes has drawn much attention. Here a new extended framework is derived that is based on a local polynomial approximation of a recently proposed variational Bayesian algorithm. The paper begins by showing that the new extension of this variational algorithm can be used for state estimation (smoothing) and converges to the original algorithm. However, the main focus is on estimating the (hyper-) parameters of these systems (i.e. drift parameters and diffusion coefficients). The new approach is validated on a range of different systems which vary in dimensionality and non-linearity. These are the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process, the exact likelihood of which can be computed analytically, the univariate and highly non-linear, stochastic double well and the multivariate chaotic stochastic Lorenz ’63 (3D model). As a special case the algorithm is also applied to the 40 dimensional stochastic Lorenz ’96 system. In our investigation we compare this new approach with a variety of other well known methods, such as the hybrid Monte Carlo, dual unscented Kalman filter, full weak-constraint 4D-Var algorithm and analyse empirically their asymptotic behaviour as a function of observation density or length of time window increases. In particular we show that we are able to estimate parameters in both the drift (deterministic) and the diffusion (stochastic) part of the model evolution equations using our new methods.

Numerical and statistical analysis of long-haul undersea optical communication systems

Firstly, we numerically model a practical 20 Gb/s undersea configuration employing the Return-to-Zero Differential Phase Shift Keying data format. The modelling is completed using the Split-Step Fourier Method to solve the Generalised Nonlinear Schrdinger Equation. We optimise the dispersion map and per-channel launch power of these channels and investigate how the choice of pre/post compensation can influence the performance. After obtaining these optimal configurations, we investigate the Bit Error Rate estimation of these systems and we see that estimation based on Gaussian electrical current systems is appropriate for systems of this type, indicating quasi-linear behaviour. The introduction of narrower pulses due to the deployment of quasi-linear transmission decreases the tolerance to chromatic dispersion and intra-channel nonlinearity. We used tools from Mathematical Statistics to study the behaviour of these channels in order to develop new methods to estimate Bit Error Rate. In the final section, we consider the estimation of Eye Closure Penalty, a popular measure of signal distortion. Using a numerical example and assuming the symmetry of eye closure, we see that we can simply estimate Eye Closure Penalty using Gaussian statistics. We also see that the statistics of the logical ones dominates the statistics of the logical ones dominates the statistics of signal distortion in the case of Return-to-Zero On-Off Keying configurations.

On the theory of self-similar parabolic optical pulses

Self-similar optical pulses (or “similaritons”) of parabolic intensity profile can be found as asymptotic solutions of the nonlinear Schr¨odinger equation in a gain medium such as a fiber amplifier or laser resonator. These solutions represent a wide-ranging significance example of dissipative nonlinear structures in optics. Here, we address some issues related to the formation and evolution of parabolic pulses in a fiber gain medium by means of semi-analytic approaches. In particular, the effect of the third-order dispersion on the structure of the asymptotic solution is examined. Our analysis is based on the resolution of ordinary differential equations, which enable us to describe the main properties of the pulse propagation and structural characteristics observable through direct numerical simulations of the basic partial differential equation model with sufficient accuracy.

On the theory of self-similar parabolic optical pulses

Self-similar optical pulses (or “similaritons”) of parabolic intensity profile can be found as asymptotic solutions of the nonlinear Schr¨odinger equation in a gain medium such as a fiber amplifier or laser resonator. These solutions represent a wide-ranging significance example of dissipative nonlinear structures in optics. Here, we address some issues related to the formation and evolution of parabolic pulses in a fiber gain medium by means of semi-analytic approaches. In particular, the effect of the third-order dispersion on the structure of the asymptotic solution is examined. Our analysis is based on the resolution of ordinary differential equations, which enable us to describe the main properties of the pulse propagation and structural characteristics observable through direct numerical simulations of the basic partial differential equation model with sufficient accuracy.