Investement appraisal in a deregulated electricity market

This thesis analyses the impact of deregulation on the theory and practice of investment decision making in the electricity sector and appraises the likely effects on its long term future inefficiency. Part I describes the market and its shortcomings in promoting an optimal generation margin and plant mix and in reducing prices through competition. A full size operational model is developed to simulate hour by hour operation of the market and analyse its features. A relationship is established between the SMP and plant mix and between the LOLP and plant margin and it is shown bow a theoretical optimum can be derived when the combined LOLP payments and the capital costs of additional generation reach a minimum. A comparison of prices against an idealised bulk supply tariff is used to show how energy prices have risen some 12% in excess of what might have occurred under the CEGB regime. This part concludes with proposals to improve the marlinvestment appraisal is no longer valid and develops a new approach. It is shown how an individual generator can predict his utilisation and income to establish the worth of investment and demonstrates the validity of the operational model proposed. An empirical relationship is developed between profit and capacity and this is used to develop the theory to illustrate how companies interact. 1bree different economic models are developed to represent different market conditions and these are tested against the actual investment decisions since deregulation to demonstrate their appropriateness. It is shown that the current market mechanisms could lead to suboptimal investment. Part 3 discusses the essential role of transmission in enabling competition and reviews worldwide practices illustrating little consensus on charging for its use. Basic costing principles are described and a new model is developed to demonstrate bow a generator may strike supply agreements either side of an interconnector to influence prices so as to maximise his income. The optimal pricing strategy for the transmitter is also derived and consumer response is simulated .The concept of transmission uplift is developed and the operational model is extended to include transmission constraints and then used to establish monthly incremental transmission constraint cost functions. It is shown how these can be used to appraise investment options and optimally plan outages. Part 4 concludes by discussing the regulatory framework and its limitations in improving efficiency or encouraging the optimum levels of investment. The principal findings of the thesis are reviewed and potential market improvement are described. This part concludes with a discussion of alternative market structures and likely future developments.

Type-2 TOPSIS:a group decision problem when ideal values are not extreme endpoints

In the traditional TOPSIS, the ideal solutions are assumed to be located at the endpoints of the data interval. However, not all performance attributes possess ideal values at the endpoints. We termed performance attributes that have ideal values at extreme points as Type-1 attributes. Type-2 attributes however possess ideal values somewhere within the data interval instead of being at the extreme end points. This provides a preference ranking problem when all attributes are computed and assumed to be of the Type-1 nature. To overcome this issue, we propose a new Fuzzy DEA method for computing the ideal values and distance function of Type-2 attributes in a TOPSIS methodology. Our method allows Type-1 and Type-2 attributes to be included in an evaluation system without compromising the ranking quality. The efficacy of the proposed model is illustrated with a vendor evaluation case for a high-tech investment decision making exercise. A comparison analysis with the traditional TOPSIS is also presented. © 2012 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

The complements towards developing a new risk management framework and Its applicability to the Nigerian power sector

The availability of regular supply has been identified as one of the major stimulants for the growth and development of any nation and is thus important for the economic well-being of a nation. The problems of the Nigerian power sector stems from a lot of factors culminating in her slow developmental growth and inability to meet the power demands of her citizens regardless of the abundance of human and natural resources prevalent in the nation. The research therefore had the main aim of investigating the importance and contributions of risk management to the success of projects specific to the power sector. To achieve this aim it was pertinent to examine the efficacy of risk management process in practice and elucidate the various risks typically associated with projects (Construction, Contractual, Political, Financial, Design, Human resource and Environmental risk factors) in the power sector as well as determine the current situation of risk management practice in Nigeria. To address this factors inhibiting the proficiency of the overarching and prevailing issue which have only been subject to limited in-depth academic research, a rigorous mixed research method was adopted (quantitative and qualitative data analysis). A review of the Nigeria power sector was also carried out as a precursor to the data collection stage. Using purposive sampling technique, respondents were identified and a questionnaire survey was administered. The research hypotheses were tested using inferential statistics (Pearson correlation, Chi-square test, t-test and ANOVA technique) and the findings revealed the need for the development of a new risk management implementation Framework. The proposed Framework was tested within a company project, for interpreting the dynamism and essential benefits of risk management with the aim of improving the project performances (time), reducing the level of fragmentation (quality) and improving profitability (cost) within the Nigerian power sector in order to bridge a gap between theory and practice. It was concluded that Nigeria’s poor risk management practices have prevented it from experiencing strong growth and development. The study however, concludes that the successful implementation of the developed risk management framework may help it to attain this status by enabling it to become more prepared and flexible, to face challenges that previously led to project failures, and thus contributing to its prosperity. The research study provides an original contribution theoretically, methodologically and practically which adds to the project risk management body of knowledge and to the Nigerian power sector.

Dimensionality reduction in complex models

As a part of the Managing Uncertainty in Complex Models (MUCM) project, research at Aston University will develop methods for dimensionality reduction of the input and/or output spaces of models, as seen within the emulator framework. Towards this end this report describes a framework for generating toy datasets, whose underlying structure is understood, to facilitate early investigations of dimensionality reduction methods and to gain a deeper understanding of the algorithms employed, both in terms of how effective they are for given types of models / situations, and also their speed in applications and how this scales with various factors. The framework, which allows the evaluation of both screening and projection approaches to dimensionality reduction, is described. We also describe the screening and projection methods currently under consideration and present some preliminary results. The aim of this draft of the report is to solicit feedback from the project team on the dataset generation framework, the methods we propose to use, and suggestions for extensions that should be considered.

Selection and application of risk management tools and techniques for build-operate-transfer projects

Construction projects are risky. However, the characteristics of the risk highly depend on the type of procurement being adopted for managing the project. A build-operate-transfer (BOT) project is recognized as one of the most risky project schemes. There are instances of project failure where a BOT scheme was employed. Ineffective rts are increasingly being managed using various risk management tools and techniques. However, application of those tools depends on the nature of the project, organization's policy, project management strategy, risk attitude of the project team members, and availability of the resources. Understanding of the contents and contexts of BOT projects, together with a thorough understanding of risk management tools and techniques, helps select processes of risk management for effective project implementation in a BOT scheme. This paper studies application of risk management tools and techniques in BOT projects through reviews of relevant literatures and develops a model for selecting risk management process for BOT projects. The application to BOT projects is considered from the viewpoints of the major project participants. Discussion is also made with regard to political risks. This study would contribute to the establishment of a framework for systematic risk management in BOT projects.

Risk management in build-operate-transfer projects

Construction projects are risky. A build-operate-transfer (BOT) project is recognised as one of the most risky project schemes. This scheme has been employed rather frequently in the past few decades, in both developed and developing countries. However, because of its risky nature, there have been failures as well as successes. Risk analysis in an appropriate way is desirable in implementing BOT projects. There are various tools and techniques applicable to risk analysis. The application of these risk analysis tools and techniques (RATTs) to BOT projects depends on an understanding of the contents and contexts of BOT projects, together with a thorough understanding of RATTs. This paper studies key points in their applications through reviews of relevant literatures and discusses the application of RATTs to BOT projects. The application to BOT projects is considered from the viewpoints of the major project participants, i.e. government, lenders and project companies. Discussion is also made with regard to political risks, which are very important in BOT projects. A flow chart has been introduced to select an appropriate tool for risk management in BOT projects. This study contributes to the establishment of a framework for systematic risk management in BOT projects.

Optimal geographic diversification and firm performance:evidence from the U.K.

This paper examines the relationship between multinationality and firm performance. The analysis is based on a sample of over 400 UK multinationals, and encompasses both service sector and manufacturing sector multinationals. This paper confirms the non-linear relationship between performance and multinationality that is reported elsewhere in the literature, but offers further analysis of this relationship. Specifically, by correcting for endogeneity in the investment decision, and for shocks in productivity across countries, the paper demonstrates that the returns to multinationality are greater than those that have been reported elsewhere, and persist to higher degrees of international diversification.

Technology transfer to China:a study of strategy in 20 EU industrial companies

Foreign direct investment has been important in China's economic development since the early 1980s. In recent years, the volume of inward FDI into China, according to some estimates, has been second only to that into the USA. The Chinese government has emphasised the need for FDI to be coupled with the transfer of more advanced technologies to China. For foreign companies, technology transfer raises the risk of losing their technology based competitive advantage to potential competitor firms. This risk may be exacerbated by insufficient legal protection of intellectual property rights in China. After briefly reviewing the development of Chinese official policy on technology transfer, this paper considers the strategy adopted by EU companies regarding the transfer of technology; in particular in advanced technology sectors. The research on which the paper is based included an analysis of information gathered from 20 leading EU companies with investments in China and operating in high-technology sectors. Information was gathered from senior company managers based in both China and Europe during the second half of 1998. The main findings include a measure of reluctance on the part of EU companies to transfer their core technologies to China and to base R&D capability there. At the same time, the companies appear aware that this policy may be unsustainable in the longer-term in the face of Chinese official policy and a desire to expand their operations in China. While they attempt to protect their existing technological knowledge, most of them accept that there will be technology "leakage" and therefore the most effective strategy is to maintain their technological lead through R&D.

Avoiding measurement dogma:a response to Rossiter

Purpose – This paper aims to respond to John Rossiter's call for a “Marketing measurement revolution” in the current issue of EJM, as well as providing broader comment on Rossiter's C-OAR-SE framework, and measurement practice in marketing in general. Design/methodology/approach – The paper is purely theoretical, based on interpretation of measurement theory. Findings – The authors find that much of Rossiter's diagnosis of the problems facing measurement practice in marketing and social science is highly relevant. However, the authors find themselves opposed to the revolution advocated by Rossiter. Research limitations/implications – The paper presents a comment based on interpretation of measurement theory and observation of practices in marketing and social science. As such, the interpretation is itself open to disagreement. Practical implications – There are implications for those outside academia who wish to use measures derived from academic work as well as to derive their own measures of key marketing and other social variables. Originality/value – This paper is one of the few to explicitly respond to the C-OAR-SE framework proposed by Rossiter, and presents a number of points critical to good measurement theory and practice, which appear to remain underdeveloped in marketing and social science.

Task-based annotation and retrieval for image information management

Continuing advances in digital image capture and storage are resulting in a proliferation of imagery and associated problems of information overload in image domains. In this work we present a framework that supports image management using an interactive approach that captures and reuses task-based contextual information. Our framework models the relationship between images and domain tasks they support by monitoring the interactive manipulation and annotation of task-relevant imagery. During image analysis, interactions are captured and a task context is dynamically constructed so that human expertise, proficiency and knowledge can be leveraged to support other users in carrying out similar domain tasks using case-based reasoning techniques. In this article we present our framework for capturing task context and describe how we have implemented the framework as two image retrieval applications in the geo-spatial and medical domains. We present an evaluation that tests the efficiency of our algorithms for retrieving image context information and the effectiveness of the framework for carrying out goal-directed image tasks. © 2010 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

Impression management, myth creation and fabrication in private social and environmental reporting:insights from Erving Goffman

This paper explores the nature of private social and environmental reporting (SER). From interviews with UK institutional investors, we show that both investors and investees employ Goffmanesque, staged impression management as a means of creating and disseminating a dual myth of social and environmental accountability. The interviewees' utterances unveil private meetings imbued with theatrical verbal and physical impression management. Most of the time, the investors' shared awareness of reality belongs to a Goffmanesque frame whereby they accept no intentionality, misrepresentation or fabrication, believing instead that the 'performers' (investees) are not intending to deceive them. A shared perception that social and environmental considerations are subordinated to financial issues renders private SER an empty encounter characterised as a relationship-building exercise with seldom any impact on investment decision-making. Investors spoke of occasional instances of fabrication but these were insufficient to break the frame of dual myth creation. They only identified a handful of instances where intentional misrepresentation had been significant enough to alter their reality and behaviour. Only in the most extreme cases of fabrication and lying did the staged meeting break frame and become a genuine occasion of accountability, where investors demanded greater transparency, further meetings and at the extreme, divested shares. We conclude that the frontstage, ritualistic impression management in private SER is inconsistent with backstage activities within financial institutions where private financial reporting is prioritised. The investors appeared to be in a double bind whereby they devoted resources to private SER but were simultaneously aware that these efforts may be at best subordinated, at worst ignored, rendering private SER a predominantly cosmetic, theatrical and empty exercise. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

Intuition in strategic decision making:implications for strategic decision effectiveness

Intuition can produce effective strategic decisions because of its speed and ability to solve less-structured problems. Despite this, there are only a very small number of empirical studies that have examined intuition in the strategic decision-making process. We examine the relationship between the use of intuition in the strategic decision-making process, and strategic decision effectiveness. We propose that the expertise of the decision-maker, environmental dynamism and the characteristics of the strategic decision itself moderate the relationship between the use of intuition in the strategic decision making process, and strategic decision effectiveness. We make a significant theoretical contribution by integrating the management and social-psychology literatures in order to identify the variables that affect the relationship between the use of intuition in the strategic decision-making process, and strategic decision effectiveness. This article builds upon existing empirical research that has examined intuition in the strategic decision-making process, and reconciles some of the confounding results that have emerged. The paper presents a conceptual model and research propositions, which if empirically examined, would make a significant contribution to knowledge in the strategic decision-making domain of literature.

Integrating OpenMI and Uncertweb:managing uncertainty in OpenMI models

OpenMI is a widely used standard allowing exchange of data between integrated models, which has mostly been applied to dynamic, deterministic models. Within the FP7 UncertWeb project we are developing mechanisms and tools to support the management of uncertainty in environmental models. In this paper we explore the integration of the UncertWeb framework with OpenMI, to assess the issues that arise when propagating uncertainty in OpenMI model compositions, and the degree of integration possible with UncertWeb tools. In particular we develop an uncertainty-enabled model for a simple Lotka-Volterra system with an interface conforming to the OpenMI standard, exploring uncertainty in the initial predator and prey levels, and the parameters of the model equations. We use the Elicitator tool developed within UncertWeb to identify the initial condition uncertainties, and show how these can be integrated, using UncertML, with simple Monte Carlo propagation mechanisms. The mediators we develop for OpenMI models are generic and produce standard Web services that expose the OpenMI models to a Web based framework. We discuss what further work is needed to allow a more complete system to be developed and show how this might be used practically.

Effectiveness of performance appraisal:an integrated framework

Based on a robust analysis of the existing literature on performance appraisal (PA), this paper makes a case for an integrated framework of effectiveness of performance appraisal (EPA). To achieve this, it draws on the expanded view of measurement criteria of EPA, i.e. purposefulness, fairness and accuracy, and identifies their relationships with ratee reactions. The analysis reveals that the expanded view of purposefulness includes more theoretical anchors for the purposes of PA and relates to various aspects of human resource functions, e.g. feedback and goal orientation. The expansion in the PA fairness criterion suggests certain newly established nomological networks, which were ignored in the past, e.g. the relationship between distributive fairness and organization-referenced outcomes. Further, refinements in PA accuracy reveal a more comprehensive categorization of rating biases. Coherence among measurement criteria has resulted in a ratee reactions-based integrated framework, which should be useful for both researchers and practitioners.

Managing the multiplicities of graduate level education! Are Master’s students’ expectations matched by their experiences?

With rapid increases in student fees reflecting moves towards a QUASI Market model of Higher Education in the UK and across much of the Western World[1], many universities find themselves having to meet progressively higher levels of student expectations[2]. This is particularly the case at undergraduate level, where increases in fees over the past decade have far exceeded inflation. Yet with so much attention on ‘consumer savvy’ undergraduates, the question of whether Master’s level students’ expectations are matched by their experiences is one which remains largely unanswered. Grounded in an empirically grounded approach to learning and teaching developed by the paper authors[3], this paper sets out to being to answer this question. In doing so it makes a distinctive contribution to debates about graduate level engineering education and concludes with a number of recommendations. Discussion: The ‘MSc: Managing Expectations’ Project analyses the expectations and experiences of Graduate level Engineering Management Students over a two year period. Focusingon the ‘student experience’, three main concepts are identified as being particular relevant to enhancing learning [3]: Relationships: Variety: Synergy. Relationships: Based on empirical research, the significance of Relationships within the academic environment is discussed with particular attention being paid to the value of students’ social and academic support networks, including academic tutoring. Variety: Grounded in a statistical analysis of ‘engagement data’ together with survey and interview findings, the concept of variety critically examines students’ perspectives and experiencesof different approaches to learning and teaching. Synergy: Possibly the most important concept discussed within this paper, the need for constructively aligned curriculum is extended to reflect the students’ apriori knowledge and experienceas well as employer and societal demands and expectations. The conclusion brings the different concepts within the discussion together, providing a set of practical recommendations for colleagues working both at graduate and undergraduate level. References 1.Gibbs, P. (2001) "Higher education as a market: a problem or solution?." Studies in Higher Education 26. 1. pp. 85-94. 2.Tricker, T., (2005) Student Expectations-How do we measure up. University of Sheffield. Available from: http://www.persons.org.uk/tricker%20paper.pdf Accessed 9/10/14 3.Clark, R. & Andrews, J. (2014). Relationships, Variety & Synergy [RVS]: The Vital Ingredients for Scholarship in Engineering Education? A Case-Study. European Journal of Engineering Education. 39.6. pp. 585-600.