Does money matter in inflation forecasting

This paper provides the most fully comprehensive evidence to date on whether or not monetary aggregates are valuable for forecasting US inflation in the early to mid 2000s. We explore a wide range of different definitions of money, including different methods of aggregation and different collections of included monetary assets. In our forecasting experiment we use two non-linear techniques, namely, recurrent neural networks and kernel recursive least squares regression - techniques that are new to macroeconomics. Recurrent neural networks operate with potentially unbounded input memory, while the kernel regression technique is a finite memory predictor. The two methodologies compete to find the best fitting US inflation forecasting models and are then compared to forecasts from a naive random walk model. The best models were non-linear autoregressive models based on kernel methods. Our findings do not provide much support for the usefulness of monetary aggregates in forecasting inflation.

Acousto-optic modulation in a microstructured plastic optical fibre Bragg grating

The present work addresses the control of the mPOF Bragg grating spectrum properties through acousto-optic modulation. For the first time, the interaction of a flexural acoustic wave, generated by longitudinal excitation of different frequencies, with the Bragg grating will be presented. Also it will be demonstrated the quasi linear relationship between PZT load and maximum reflected power/ 3dB bandwidth of the reflected spectrum.

Follow the money:the Audit Commission, Public Money and the Management of Public Services, 1983-2008, Duncan Campbell-Smith

Book review: Duncan Campbell-Smith. Allen Lane, 2008, 744 pp., £ 25 (hb), ISBN: 9781846140686

Econometrics of yield spreads in the money market:a note

The literature on bond markets and interest rates has focused largely on the term structure of interest rates, specifically, on the so-called expectations hypothesis. At the same time, little is known about the nature of the spread of the interest rates in the money market beyond the fact that such spreads are generally unstable. However, with the evolution of complex financial instruments, it has become imperative to identify the time series process that can help one accurately forecast such spreads into the future. This article explores the nature of the time series process underlying the spread between three-month and one-year US rates, and concludes that the movements in this spread over time is best captured by a GARCH(1,1) process. It also suggests the use of a relatively long term measure of interest rate volatility as an explanatory variable. This exercise has gained added importance in view of the revelation that GARCH based estimates of option prices consistently outperform the corresponding estimates based on the stylized Black-Scholes algorithm.

A transient method of measuring thermal contact conductance between metal-plastic surfaces

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High refractive index plastic optical materials

DUE TO COPYRIGHT RESTRICTIONS ONLY AVAILABLE FOR CONSULTATION AT ASTON UNIVERSITY LIBRARY AND INFORMATION SERVICES WITH PRIOR ARRANGEMENT

Highly thermally responsive hybrid in-fiber slab waveguide grating structure with a plastic core and a silica cladding

A 1.2(height)×125(depth)×500(length) micro-slot was engraved along a fiber Bragg grating by chemically assisted femtosecond laser processing. By filling epoxy and UV-curing, waveguide with plastic-core and silica-cladding was created, presenting high thermal responding coefficient of 211pm/°C.

Highly thermally responsive hybrid in-fiber sSlab waveguide grating structure with a plastic core and a silica cladding

A 1.2(height)×125(depth)×500(length) micro-slot was engraved along a fiber Bragg grating by chemically assisted femtosecond laser processing. By filling epoxy and UV-curing, waveguide with plastic-core and silica-cladding was created, presenting high thermal responding coefficient of 211pm/°C.

Breaks in the UK household sector money demand function

We use non-parametric procedures to identify breaks in the underlying series of UK household sector money demand functions. Money demand functions are estimated using cointegration techniques and by employing both the Simple Sum and Divisia measures of money. P-star models are also estimated for out-of-sample inflation forecasting. Our findings suggest that the presence of breaks affects both the estimation of cointegrated money demand functions and the inflation forecasts. P-star forecast models based on Divisia measures appear more accurate at longer horizons and the majority of models with fundamentals perform better than a random walk model.

Elastic and plastic properties of Mo3Si measured by nanoindentation

Single crystal Mo3Si specimens were grown and tested at room temperature using established nanoindentation techniques at various crystallographic orientations. The indentation modulus and hardness were obtained for loads that were large enough to determine bulk properties, yet small enough to avoid cracking in the specimens. From the indentation modulus results, anisotropic elastic constants were determined. As load was initially increased to approximately 1.5 mN, the hardness exhibited a sudden drop that corresponded to a jump in displacement. The resolved shear stress that was determined from initial yielding was 10-15% of the shear modulus, but 3 to 4 times the value obtained from the bulk hardness. Non-contact atomic force microscopy images in the vicinity of indents revealed features consistent with {100}(010) slip.

Acousto-optic modulation in a microstructured plastic optical fibre Bragg grating

The present work addresses the control of the mPOF Bragg grating spectrum properties through acousto-optic modulation. For the first time, the interaction of a flexural acoustic wave, generated by longitudinal excitation of different frequencies, with the Bragg grating will be presented. Also it will be demonstrated the quasi linear relationship between PZT load and maximum reflected power/ 3dB bandwidth of the reflected spectrum.

More than money:developing an integrative multi-factorial measure of entrepreneurial success

This article conceptualises and operationalizes ‘subjective entrepreneurial success’ in a manner which reflects the criteria employed by entrepreneurs, rather than those imposed by researchers. Using two studies, a first qualitative enquiry investigated success definitions using interviews with 185 German entrepreneurs; five factors emerged from their reports: firm performance, workplace relationships, personal fulfilment, community impact, and personal financial rewards. The second study developed a questionnaire, the Subjective Entrepreneurial Success–Importance Scale (SES-IS), to measure these five factors using a sample of 184 entrepreneurs. We provide evidence for the validity of the SES-IS, including establishing systematic relationships of SES-IS with objective indicators of firm success, annual income and entrepreneur satisfaction with life and financial situation. We also provide evidence for the cross-cultural invariance of SES-IS using a sample of Polish entrepreneurs. The quintessence of our studies being that subjective entrepreneurial success is a multi-factorial construct, i.e. entrepreneurs value various indicators of success with money as only one possible option.

Novel Ni-Mg-Al-Ca catalyst for enhanced hydrogen production for the pyrolysis-gasification of a biomass/plastic mixture

A Ni-Mg-Al-Ca catalyst was prepared by a co-precipitation method for hydrogen production from polymeric materials. The prepared catalyst was designed for both the steam cracking of hydrocarbons and for the in situ absorption of CO2 via enhancement of the water-gas shift reaction. The influence of Ca content in the catalyst and catalyst calcination temperature in relation to the pyrolysis-gasification of a wood sawdust/polypropylene mixture was investigated. The highest hydrogen yield of 39.6molH2/g Ni with H2/CO ratio of 1.90 was obtained in the presence of the Ca containing catalyst of molar ratio Ni:Mg:Al:Ca=1:1:1:4, calcined at 500°C. In addition, thermogravimetric and morphology analyses of the reacted catalysts revealed that Ca introduction into the Ni-Mg-Al catalyst prevented the deposition of filamentous carbon on the catalyst surface. Furthermore, all metals were well dispersed in the catalyst after the pyrolysis-gasification process with 20-30nm of NiO sized particles observed after the gasification without significant aggregation.

Controlling the properties of microstructured plastic optical fiber Bragg gratings using acousto-optic excitation

A fine control of the mPOF Bragg grating spectrum properties, such as maximum reflected power and 3dB bandwidth, through acousto-optic modulation (AOM) using flexural regime is presented. A numerical comparison of the strain field along mPOFBG - AOM and the similar structure with SMFBG-AOM was presented, showing that the strain field amplitude is higher along the mPOFBG due to its smaller mechanical stiffness. The obtained results can be used in the development of fine-tuned optical filters using low voltage sources and low frequency regimes, to obtain tunable optical filters and to control the shape of the spectrum. Studies of the behavior in different gratings (such as phase shifted and long period gratings) for photonic applications, such as tunable notch filters or tunable cavities, are in progress. It can potentially be applied on tunable optical filters for POF transmission. © 2012 IEEE.