Planning for project control through risk analysis:a case of petroleum pipeline laying

Projects that are exposed to uncertain environments can be effectively controlled with the application of risk analysis during the planning stage. The Analytic Hierarchy Process, a multiattribute decision-making technique, can be used to analyse and assess project risks which are objective or subjective in nature. Among other advantages, the process logically integrates the various elements in the planning process. The results from risk analysis and activity analysis are then used to develop a logical contingency allowance for the project through the application of probability theory. The contingency allowance is created in two parts: (a) a technical contingency, and (b) a management contingency. This provides a basis for decision making in a changing project environment. Effective control of the project is made possible by the limitation of the changes within the monetary contingency allowance for the work package concerned, and the utilization of the contingency through proper appropriation. The whole methodology is applied to a pipeline-laying project in India, and its effectiveness in project control is demonstrated.

New York mark-ups on petroleum products

In this paper we analyse rigidities in the behaviour of the mark-up on regular, midgrade and premium varieties of petrol in the New York area using a set of weekly frequency data and a methodology that analyses the pricing process using deterministic and stochastic techniques. The results are consistent across methodologies and indicate that the speeds of adjustment to the long-run equilibrium mark-up differ across varieties of petrol with margins of the premium variety falling faster than they rise, contrary to the popular claim of welfare-decreasing asymmetries in price transmission. © 2012 The Authors. The Manchester School © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd and The University of Manchester.

Price transmission in the EU wholesale petroleum markets

This article employs nonlinear smooth transition models to analyze the relationship between upstream and midstream prices of petroleum products. We test for the presence of nonlinearities in price linkages using both weekly series constructed using official EU procedures and also daily industry series applied for the first time. Our results show that the estimated shape of the transition function and equilibrium reversion path depend on the frequency of the price dataset. Our analysis of the crude oil to wholesale price transmission provides evidence of nonlinearities when prices are observed with daily frequency. The nature of the nonlinearities provides evidence in support of the existence of menu costs or, more generally, frictions in the markets rather than supply adjustment costs. This result differs from that found for the U.S. petroleum markets. © 2012 American Statistical Association.

Catalytic supercritical water gasification of plastics with supported RuO2:a potential solution to hydrocarbons-water pollution problem

Here we report on a potential catalytic process for efficient clean-up of plastic pollution in waters, such as the Great Pacific Garbage Patch (CPGP). Detailed catalytic mechanisms of RuO2 during supercritical water gasification of common polyolefin plastics including low-density polyethylene (LDPE), high-density polyethylene (HDPE), polypropylene (PP) and polystyrene (PP), have been investigated in a batch reactor at 450 °C, 60 min. All four plastics gave very high carbon gasification efficiencies (CGE) and hydrogen gasification efficiencies (HGE). Methane was the highest gas component, with a yield of up to 37 mol kg−1LDPE using the 20 wt% RuO2 catalyst. Evaluation of the gas yields, CGE and HGE revealed that the conversion of PS involved thermal degradation, steam reforming and methanation; whereas hydrogenolysis was a possible additional mechanism during the conversion of aliphatic plastics. The process has the benefits of producing a clean-pressurized methane-rich fuel gas as well as cleaning up hydrocarbons-polluted waters.

Asymmetric price transmission in EU petroleum markets

This research investigates the determinants of asymmetric price transmission (APT) in European petroleum markets. APT is the faster response of retail prices to cost increases than to cost decreases; resulting in a welfare transfer from consumers to fuel retailers. I investigate APT at 3 different levels: the EU, the UK and at the Birmingham level. First, I examine the incidence of asymmetries in the retail markets of six major EU countries; significant asymmetries are found in all countries except from the UK. The market share data suggest that asymmetries are more important in more concentrated markets; this finding supports the collusion theory. I extend the investigation to 12 EU countries and note that APT is greater in diesel markets. The cross-country analysis suggests that vertical and horizontal concentration at least partly explains the degree of asymmetry. I provide evidence justifying scrutiny over retail markets’ pricing and structure. Second daily data unveil the presence of APT in the UK fuel markets. I use break tests to identify segments with different pricing regimes. Two main types of periods are identified: periods of rising oil price exhibit significant asymmetries whilst periods of recession do not. Our results suggest that oligopolistic coordination between retailers generate excess rents during periods of rising oil price whilst the coordination fails due to price wars when oil prices are going downwards. Finally I investigate the pricing behaviour of petroleum retailers in the Birmingham (UK) area for 2008. Whilst the market structure data reveals that the horizontal concentration is higher than the national UK average, I find no evidence of APT. In contrast, I find that retail prices are sticky upwards and downwards and that firms with market power (majors and supermarkets) adjust their prices slower than other firms.

Effect of Cu and Sn promotion on the catalytic deoxygenation of model and algal lipids to fuel-like hydrocarbons over supported Ni catalysts

The ability of Cu and Sn to promote the performance of a 20% Ni/Al2O3 catalyst in the deoxygenation of lipids to fuel-like hydrocarbons was investigated using model triglyceride and fatty acid feeds, as well as algal lipids. In the semi-batch deoxygenation of tristearin at 260 °C a pronounced promotional effect was observed, a 20% Ni-5% Cu/Al2O3 catalyst affording both higher conversion (97%) and selectivity to C10-C17 alkanes (99%) in comparison with unpromoted 20% Ni/Al2O3 (27% conversion and 87% selectivity to C10-C17). In the same reaction at 350 °C, a 20% Ni-1% Sn/Al2O3 catalyst afforded the best results, giving yields of C10-C17 and C17 of 97% and 55%, respectively, which contrasts with the corresponding values of 87 and 21% obtained over 20% Ni/Al2O3. Equally encouraging results were obtained in the semi-batch deoxygenation of stearic acid at 300 °C, in which the 20% Ni-5% Cu/Al2O3 catalyst afforded the highest yields of C10-C17 and C17. Experiments were also conducted at 260 °C in a fixed bed reactor using triolein − a model unsaturated triglyceride − as the feed. While both 20% Ni/Al2O3 and 20% Ni-5% Cu/Al2O3 achieved quantitative yields of diesel-like hydrocarbons at all reaction times sampled, the Cu-promoted catalyst exhibited higher selectivity to longer chain hydrocarbons, a phenomenon which was also observed in experiments involving algal lipids as the feed. Characterization of fresh and spent catalysts indicates that Cu enhances the reducibility of Ni and suppresses both cracking reactions and coke-induced deactivation.