Vertical and horizontal scope economies in the regulated US electricity power industry

This paper investigates vertical economies between generation and distribution of electric power, and horizontal economies between different types of power generation in the U.S. electric utility industry. Our quadratic cost function model includes three generation output measures (hydro, nuclear and fossil fuels), which allows us to analyze the effect that generation mix has on vertical economies. Our results provide (sample mean) estimates of vertical economies of 8.1% and horizontal economies of 5.4%. An extensive sensitivity analysis is used to show how the scope measures vary across alternative model specifications and firm types. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd and the Editorial Board of The Journal of Industrial Economics.

A fuzzy levelised energy cost method for renewable energy technology assessment

Renewable energy project development is highly complex and success is by no means guaranteed. Decisions are often made with approximate or uncertain information yet the current methods employed by decision-makers do not necessarily accommodate this. Levelised energy costs (LEC) are one such commonly applied measure utilised within the energy industry to assess the viability of potential projects and inform policy. The research proposes a method for achieving this by enhancing the traditional discounting LEC measure with fuzzy set theory. Furthermore, the research develops the fuzzy LEC (F-LEC) methodology to incorporate the cost of financing a project from debt and equity sources. Applied to an example bioenergy project, the research demonstrates the benefit of incorporating fuzziness for project viability, optimal capital structure and key variable sensitivity analysis decision-making. The proposed method contributes by incorporating uncertain and approximate information to the widely utilised LEC measure and by being applicable to a wide range of energy project viability decisions. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing economically viable carbon reductions for the production of ammonia from biomass gasification

Greenhouse gas emissions from fertiliser production are set to increase before stabilising due to the increasing demand to secure sustainable food supplies for a growing global population. However, avoiding the impacts of climate change requires all sectors to decarbonise by a very high level within several decades. Economically viable carbon reductions of substituting natural gas reforming with biomass gasification for ammonia production are assessed using techno-economic and life cycle assessment. Greenhouse gas savings of 65% are achieved for the biomass gasification system and the internal rate of return is 9.8% at base-line biomass feedstock and ammonia prices. Uncertainties in the assumptions have been tested by performing sensitivity analysis, which show, for example with a ±50% change in feedstock price, the rate of return ranges between -0.1% and 18%. It would achieve its target rate of return of 20% at a carbon price of £32/t CO, making it cost competitive compared to using biomass for heat or electricity. However, the ability to remain competitive to investors will depend on the volatility of ammonia prices, whereby a significant decrease would require high carbon prices to compensate. Moreover, since no such project has been constructed previously, there is high technology risk associated with capital investment. With limited incentives for industrial intensive energy users to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, a sensible policy mechanism could target the support of commercial demonstration plants to help ensure this risk barrier is resolved. © 2013 The Authors.

Assessing economically viable carbon reductions for the production of ammonia from biomass gasification

Greenhouse gas emissions from fertiliser production are set to increase before stabilising due to the increasing demand to secure sustainable food supplies for a growing global population. However, avoiding the impacts of climate change requires all sectors to decarbonise by a very high level within several decades. Economically viable carbon reductions of substituting natural gas reforming with biomass gasification for ammonia production are assessed using techno-economic and life cycle assessment. Greenhouse gas savings of 65% are achieved for the biomass gasification system and the internal rate of return is 9.8% at base-line biomass feedstock and ammonia prices. Uncertainties in the assumptions have been tested by performing sensitivity analysis, which show, for example with a ±50% change in feedstock price, the rate of return ranges between -0.1% and 18%. It would achieve its target rate of return of 20% at a carbon price of £32/t CO, making it cost competitive compared to using biomass for heat or electricity. However, the ability to remain competitive to investors will depend on the volatility of ammonia prices, whereby a significant decrease would require high carbon prices to compensate. Moreover, since no such project has been constructed previously, there is high technology risk associated with capital investment. With limited incentives for industrial intensive energy users to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, a sensible policy mechanism could target the support of commercial demonstration plants to help ensure this risk barrier is resolved. © 2013 The Authors.

A road safety performance indicator for vehicle fleet compatibility

This paper discusses the development and the application of a safety performance indicator which measures the intrinsic safety of a country's vehicle fleet related to fleet composition. The indicator takes into account both the ‘relative severity’ of individual collisions between different vehicle types, and the share of those vehicle types within a country's fleet. The relative severity is a measure for the personal damage that can be expected from a collision between two vehicles of any type, relative to that of a collision between passenger cars. It is shown how this number can be calculated using vehicle mass only. A sensitivity analysis is performed to study the dependence of the indicator on parameter values and basic assumptions made. The indicator is easy to apply and satisfies the requirements for appropriate safety performance indicators. It was developed in such a way that it specifically scores the intrinsic safety of a fleet due to its composition, without being influenced by other factors, like helmet wearing. For the sake of simplicity, and since the required data is available throughout Europe, the indicator was applied to the relative share of three of the main vehicle types: passenger cars, heavy goods vehicles and motorcycles. Using the vehicle fleet data from 13 EU Member States and Norway, the indicator was used to rank the countries’ safety performance. The UK was found to perform best in terms of its fleet composition (value is 1.07), while Greece has the worst performance with the highest indicator value (1.41).

A techno-economic comparison of power production by biomass fast pyrolysis with gasification and combustion

This paper presents an assessment of the technical and economic performance of thermal processes to generate electricity from a wood chip feedstock by combustion, gasification and fast pyrolysis. The scope of the work begins with the delivery of a wood chip feedstock at a conversion plant and ends with the supply of electricity to the grid, incorporating wood chip preparation, thermal conversion, and electricity generation in dual fuel diesel engines. Net generating capacities of 1–20 MWe are evaluated. The techno-economic assessment is achieved through the development of a suite of models that are combined to give cost and performance data for the integrated system. The models include feed pretreatment, combustion, atmospheric and pressure gasification, fast pyrolysis with pyrolysis liquid storage and transport (an optional step in de-coupled systems) and diesel engine or turbine power generation. The models calculate system efficiencies, capital costs and production costs. An identical methodology is applied in the development of all the models so that all of the results are directly comparable. The electricity production costs have been calculated for 10th plant systems, indicating the costs that are achievable in the medium term after the high initial costs associated with novel technologies have reduced. The costs converge at the larger scale with the mean electricity price paid in the EU by a large consumer, and there is therefore potential for fast pyrolysis and diesel engine systems to sell electricity directly to large consumers or for on-site generation. However, competition will be fierce at all capacities since electricity production costs vary only slightly between the four biomass to electricity systems that are evaluated. Systems de-coupling is one way that the fast pyrolysis and diesel engine system can distinguish itself from the other conversion technologies. Evaluations in this work show that situations requiring several remote generators are much better served by a large fast pyrolysis plant that supplies fuel to de-coupled diesel engines than by constructing an entire close-coupled system at each generating site. Another advantage of de-coupling is that the fast pyrolysis conversion step and the diesel engine generation step can operate independently, with intermediate storage of the fast pyrolysis liquid fuel, increasing overall reliability. Peak load or seasonal power requirements would also benefit from de-coupling since a small fast pyrolysis plant could operate continuously to produce fuel that is stored for use in the engine on demand. Current electricity production costs for a fast pyrolysis and diesel engine system are 0.091/kWh at 1 MWe when learning effects are included. These systems are handicapped by the typical characteristics of a novel technology: high capital cost, high labour, and low reliability. As such the more established combustion and steam cycle produces lower cost electricity under current conditions. The fast pyrolysis and diesel engine system is a low capital cost option but it also suffers from relatively low system efficiency particularly at high capacities. This low efficiency is the result of a low conversion efficiency of feed energy into the pyrolysis liquid, because of the energy in the char by-product. A sensitivity analysis has highlighted the high impact on electricity production costs of the fast pyrolysis liquids yield. The liquids yield should be set realistically during design, and it should be maintained in practice by careful attention to plant operation and feed quality. Another problem is the high power consumption during feedstock grinding. Efficiencies may be enhanced in ablative fast pyrolysis which can tolerate a chipped feedstock. This has yet to be demonstrated at commercial scale. In summary, the fast pyrolysis and diesel engine system has great potential to generate electricity at a profit in the long term, and at a lower cost than any other biomass to electricity system at small scale. This future viability can only be achieved through the construction of early plant that could, in the short term, be more expensive than the combustion alternative. Profitability in the short term can best be achieved by exploiting niches in the market place and specific features of fast pyrolysis. These include: •countries or regions with fiscal incentives for renewable energy such as premium electricity prices or capital grants; •locations with high electricity prices so that electricity can be sold direct to large consumers or generated on-site by companies who wish to reduce their consumption from the grid; •waste disposal opportunities where feedstocks can attract a gate fee rather than incur a cost; •the ability to store fast pyrolysis liquids as a buffer against shutdowns or as a fuel for peak-load generating plant; •de-coupling opportunities where a large, single pyrolysis plant supplies fuel to several small and remote generators; •small-scale combined heat and power opportunities; •sales of the excess char, although a market has yet to be established for this by-product; and •potential co-production of speciality chemicals and fuel for power generation in fast pyrolysis systems.

Cloud adoption:prioritizing obstacles and obstacles resolution tactics using AHP

The enormous potential of cloud computing for improved and cost-effective service has generated unprecedented interest in its adoption. However, a potential cloud user faces numerous risks regarding service requirements, cost implications of failure and uncertainty about cloud providers' ability to meet service level agreements. These risks hinder the adoption of cloud. We extend the work on goal-oriented requirements engineering (GORE) and obstacles for informing the adoption process. We argue that obstacles prioritisation and their resolution is core to mitigating risks in the adoption process. We propose a novel systematic method for prioritising obstacles and their resolution tactics using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). We provide an example to demonstrate the applicability and effectiveness of the approach. To assess the AHP choice of the resolution tactics we support the method by stability and sensitivity analysis. Copyright 2014 ACM.

WASAN : the development of a facilitated methodology for structuring a waste minimisation problem

This paper contributes a new methodology called Waste And Source-matter ANalyses (WASAN) which supports a group in building agreeable actions for safely minimising avoidable waste. WASAN integrates influences from the Operational Research (OR) methodologies/philosophies of Problem Structuring Methods, Systems Thinking, simulation modelling and sensitivity analysis as well as industry approaches of Waste Management Hierarchy, Hazard Operability (HAZOP) Studies and As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP). The paper shows how these influences are compiled into facilitative structures that support managers in developing recommendations on how to reduce avoidable waste production. WASAN is being designed as Health and Safety Executive Guidance on what constitutes good decision making practice for the companies that manage nuclear sites. In this paper we report and reflect on its use in two soft OR/problem structuring workshops conducted on radioactive waste in the nuclear industry. Crown Copyright © 2010.

Perceptions and experiences of the implementation, management, use and optimisation of electronic prescribing systems in hospital settings:protocol for a systematic review of qualitative studies

Introduction: There is increasing evidence that electronic prescribing (ePrescribing) or computerised provider/physician order entry (CPOE) systems can improve the quality and safety of healthcare services. However, it has also become clear that their implementation is not straightforward and may create unintended or undesired consequences once in use. In this context, qualitative approaches have been particularly useful and their interpretative synthesis could make an important and timely contribution to the field. This review will aim to identify, appraise and synthesise qualitative studies on ePrescribing/CPOE in hospital settings, with or without clinical decision support. Methods and analysis: Data sources will include the following bibliographic databases: MEDLINE, MEDLINE In Process, EMBASE, PsycINFO, Social Policy and Practice via Ovid, CINAHL via EBSCO, The Cochrane Library (CDSR, DARE and CENTRAL databases), Nursing and Allied Health Sources, Applied Social Sciences Index and Abstracts via ProQuest and SCOPUS. In addition, other sources will be searched for ongoing studies (ClinicalTrials.gov) and grey literature: Healthcare Management Information Consortium, Conference Proceedings Citation Index (Web of Science) and Sociological abstracts. Studies will be independently screened for eligibility by 2 reviewers. Qualitative studies, either standalone or in the context of mixed-methods designs, reporting the perspectives of any actors involved in the implementation, management and use of ePrescribing/CPOE systems in hospital-based care settings will be included. Data extraction will be conducted by 2 reviewers using a piloted form. Quality appraisal will be based on criteria from the Critical Appraisal Skills Programme checklist and Standards for Reporting Qualitative Research. Studies will not be excluded based on quality assessment. A postsynthesis sensitivity analysis will be undertaken. Data analysis will follow the thematic synthesis method. Ethics and dissemination: The study does not require ethical approval as primary data will not be collected. The results of the study will be published in a peer-reviewed journal and presented at relevant conferences.

Planar solid oxide fuel cell modeling and optimization targeting the stack's temperature gradient minimization

Minimization of undesirable temperature gradients in all dimensions of a planar solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) is central to the thermal management and commercialization of this electrochemical reactor. This article explores the effective operating variables on the temperature gradient in a multilayer SOFC stack and presents a trade-off optimization. Three promising approaches are numerically tested via a model-based sensitivity analysis. The numerically efficient thermo-chemical model that had already been developed by the authors for the cell scale investigations (Tang et al. Chem. Eng. J. 2016, 290, 252-262) is integrated and extended in this work to allow further thermal studies at commercial scales. Initially, the most common approach for the minimization of stack's thermal inhomogeneity, i.e., usage of the excess air, is critically assessed. Subsequently, the adjustment of inlet gas temperatures is introduced as a complementary methodology to reduce the efficiency loss due to application of excess air. As another practical approach, regulation of the oxygen fraction in the cathode coolant stream is examined from both technical and economic viewpoints. Finally, a multiobjective optimization calculation is conducted to find an operating condition in which stack's efficiency and temperature gradient are maximum and minimum, respectively.

Statnote 23: Non-parametric analysis of variance (ANOVA)

To carry out an analysis of variance, several assumptions are made about the nature of the experimental data which have to be at least approximately true for the tests to be valid. One of the most important of these assumptions is that a measured quantity must be a parametric variable, i.e., a member of a normally distributed population. If the data are not normally distributed, then one method of approach is to transform the data to a different scale so that the new variable is more likely to be normally distributed. An alternative method, however, is to use a non-parametric analysis of variance. There are a limited number of such tests available but two useful tests are described in this Statnote, viz., the Kruskal-Wallis test and Friedmann’s analysis of variance.

Has DRG payment influenced the technical efficiency and productivity of diagnostic technologies in Portuguese public hospitals? An empirical analysis using parametric and non‐parametric methods

The use of Diagnosis Related Groups (DRG) as a mechanism for hospital financing is a currently debated topic in Portugal. The DRG system was scheduled to be initiated by the Health Ministry of Portugal on January 1, 1990 as an instrument for the allocation of public hospital budgets funded by the National Health Service (NHS), and as a method of payment for other third party payers (e.g., Public Employees (ADSE), private insurers, etc.). Based on experience from other countries such as the United States, it was expected that implementation of this system would result in more efficient hospital resource utilisation and a more equitable distribution of hospital budgets. However, in order to minimise the potentially adverse financial impact on hospitals, the Portuguese Health Ministry decided to gradually phase in the use of the DRG system for budget allocation by using blended hospitalspecific and national DRG casemix rates. Since implementation in 1990, the percentage of each hospitals budget based on hospital specific costs was to decrease, while the percentage based on DRG casemix was to increase. This was scheduled to continue until 1995 when the plan called for allocating yearly budgets on a 50% national and 50% hospitalspecific cost basis. While all other nonNHS third party payers are currently paying based on DRGs, the adoption of DRG casemix as a National Health Service budget setting tool has been slower than anticipated. There is now some argument in both the political and academic communities as to the appropriateness of DRGs as a budget setting criterion as well as to their impact on hospital efficiency in Portugal. This paper uses a twostage procedure to assess the impact of actual DRG payment on the productivity (through its components, i.e., technological change and technical efficiency change) of diagnostic technology in Portuguese hospitals during the years 1992–1994, using both parametric and nonparametric frontier models. We find evidence that the DRG payment system does appear to have had a positive impact on productivity and technical efficiency of some commonly employed diagnostic technologies in Portugal during this time span.

A sensitivity study of the human crystalline lens using finite element analysis

Finite element analysis is a useful tool in understanding how the accommodation system of the eye works. Further to simpler FEA models that have been used hitherto, this paper describes a sensitivity study which aims to understand which parameters of the crystalline lens are key to developing an accurate model of the accommodation system. A number of lens models were created, allowing the mechanical properties, internal structure and outer geometry to be varied. These models were then spun about their axes, and the deformations determined. The results showed the mechanical properties are the critical parameters, with the internal structure secondary. Further research is needed to fully understand how the internal structure and properties interact to affect lens deformation.

The effect of corruption on FDI:a parametric and non-parametric analysis

This paper analyses the effect of corruption on Multinational Enterprises' (MNEs) incentives to undertake FDI in a particular country. We contribute to the existing literature by modelling the relationship between corruption and FDI using both parametric and non-parametric methods. We report that the impact of corruption on FDI stock is different for the different quantiles of the FDI stock distribution. This is a characteristic that could not be captured in previous studies which used only parametric methods. After controlling for the location selection process of MNEs and other host country characteristics, the result from both parametric and non-parametric analyses offer some support for the ‘helping-hand’ role of corruption.

Sensitivity and reliability of objective image analysis compared to subjective grading of bulbar hyperaemia

Aims: To establish the sensitivity and reliability of objective image analysis in direct comparison with subjective grading of bulbar hyperaemia. Methods: Images of the same eyes were captured with a range of bulbar hyperaemia caused by vasodilation. The progression was recorded and 45 images extracted. The images were objectively analysed on 14 occasions using previously validated edge-detection and colour-extraction techniques. They were also graded by 14 eye-care practitioners (ECPs) and 14 non-clinicians (NCb) using the Efron scale. Six ECPs repeated the grading on three separate occasions Results: Subjective grading was only able to differentiate images with differences in grade of 0.70-1.03 Efron units (sensitivity of 0.30-0.53), compared to 0,02-0.09 Efron units with objective techniques (sensitivity of 0.94-0.99). Significant differences were found between ECPs and individual repeats were also inconsistent (p<0.001). Objective analysis was 16x more reliable than subjective analysis. The NCLs used wider ranges of the scale but were more variable than ECPs, implying that training may have an effect on grading. Conclusions: Objective analysis may offer a new gold standard in anterior ocular examination, and should be developed further as a clinical research tool to allow more highly powered analysis, and to enhance the clinical monitoring of anterior eye disease.