An artificial neural network stratifies the risks of reintervention and mortality after endovascular aneurysm repair:a retrospective observational study

Background Lifelong surveillance after endovascular repair (EVAR) of abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA) is considered mandatory to detect potentially life-threatening endograft complications. A minority of patients require reintervention but cannot be predictively identified by existing methods. This study aimed to improve the prediction of endograft complications and mortality, through the application of machine-learning techniques. Methods Patients undergoing EVAR at 2 centres were studied from 2004-2010. Pre-operative aneurysm morphology was quantified and endograft complications were recorded up to 5 years following surgery. An artificial neural networks (ANN) approach was used to predict whether patients would be at low- or high-risk of endograft complications (aortic/limb) or mortality. Centre 1 data were used for training and centre 2 data for validation. ANN performance was assessed by Kaplan-Meier analysis to compare the incidence of aortic complications, limb complications, and mortality; in patients predicted to be low-risk, versus those predicted to be high-risk. Results 761 patients aged 75 +/- 7 years underwent EVAR. Mean follow-up was 36+/- 20 months. An ANN was created from morphological features including angulation/length/areas/diameters/ volume/tortuosity of the aneurysm neck/sac/iliac segments. ANN models predicted endograft complications and mortality with excellent discrimination between a low-risk and high-risk group. In external validation, the 5-year rates of freedom from aortic complications, limb complications and mortality were 95.9% vs 67.9%; 99.3% vs 92.0%; and 87.9% vs 79.3% respectively (p0.001) Conclusion This study presents ANN models that stratify the 5-year risk of endograft complications or mortality using routinely available pre-operative data.

Methotrexate polyglutamates as a potential marker of adherence to long-term therapy in children with juvenile idiopathic arthritis and juvenile dermatomyositis:an observational, cross-sectional study

Introduction: Methotrexate (MTX) is a cornerstone of treatment in a wide variety of inflammatory conditions, including juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) and juvenile dermatomyositis (JDM). However, owing to its narrow therapeutic index and the considerable interpatient variability in clinical response, monitoring of adherence to MTX is important. The present study demonstrates the feasibility of using methotrexate polyglutamates (MTXPGs) as a biomarker to measure adherence to MTX treatment in children with JIA and JDM. Methods: Data were collected prospectively from a cohort of 48 children (median age 11.5 years) who received oral or subcutaneous (SC) MTX therapy for JIA or JDM. Dried blood spot samples were obtained from children by finger pick at the clinic or via self- or parent-led sampling at home, and they were analysed to determine the variability in MTXPG concentrations and assess adherence to MTX therapy. Results: Wide fluctuations in MTXPG total concentrations (>2.0-fold variations) were found in 17 patients receiving stable weekly doses of MTX, which is indicative of nonadherence or partial adherence to MTX therapy. Age (P = 0.026) and route of administration (P = 0.005) were the most important predictors of nonadherence to MTX treatment. In addition, the study showed that MTX dose and route of administration were significantly associated with variations in the distribution of MTXPG subtypes. Higher doses and SC administration of MTX produced higher levels of total MTXPGs and selective accumulation of longer-chain MTXPGs (P < 0.001 and P < 0.0001, respectively). Conclusions: Nonadherence to MTX therapy is a significant problem in children with JIA and JDM. The present study suggests that patients with inadequate adherence and/or intolerance to oral MTX may benefit from SC administration of the drug. The clinical utility of MTXPG levels to monitor and optimise adherence to MTX in children has been demonstrated. Trial registration: ISRCTN Registry identifier: ISRCTN93945409. Registered 2 December 2011.

Clinical significance of medication reconciliation in children admitted to a UK pediatric hospital:observational study of neurosurgical patients

Background: In December 2007, the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence and the National Patient Safety Agency in the UK (NICE-NPSA) published guidance that recommends all adults admitted to hospital receive medication reconciliation, usually by pharmacy staff. A costing and report tool was provided indicating a resource requirement of d12.9 million for England per year. Pediatric patients are excluded from this guidance. Objective: To determine the clinical significance of medication reconciliation in children on admission to hospital. Methods: A prospective observational study included pediatric patients admitted to a neurosurgical ward at Birmingham Childrens Hospital, Birmingham, England, between September 2006 and March 2007. Medication reconciliation was conducted by a pharmacist after the admission of each of 100 consecutive eligible patients aged 4 months to 16 years. The clinical significance of prescribing disparities between pre-admission medications and initial admission medication orders was determined by an expert multidisciplinary panel and quantified using an analog scale. The main outcome measure was the clinical signficance of unintentional variations between hospital admission medication orders and physician-prescribed pre-admission medication for repeat (continuing) medications. Results: Initial admission medication orders for children differed from prescribed pre-admission medication in 39%of cases. Half of all resulting prescribing variations in this setting had the potential to cause moderate or severe discomfort or clinical deterioration. These results mirror findings for adults. Conclusions: The introduction of medication reconciliation in children on admission to hospital has the potential to reduce discomfort or clinical deterioration by reducing unintentional changes to repeat prescribed medication. Consequently, there is no justification for the omission of children from the NICENPSA guidance concerning medication reconciliation in hospitals, and costing tools should include pediatric patients. © 2010 Adis Data Information BV. All rights reserved.

Association of anticholinergic burden with adverse effects in older people with intellectual disabilities:an observational cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND: No studies to date have investigated cumulative anticholinergic exposure and its effects in adults with intellectual disabilities. AIMS: To determine the cumulative exposure to anticholinergics and the factors associated with high exposure. METHOD: A modified Anticholinergic Cognitive Burden (ACB) scale score was calculated for a representative cohort of 736 people over 40 years old with intellectual disabilities, and associations with demographic and clinical factors assessed. RESULTS: Age over 65 years was associated with higher exposure (ACB 1-4 odds ratio (OR) = 3.28, 95% CI 1.49-7.28, ACB 5+ OR = 3.08, 95% CI 1.20-7.63), as was a mental health condition (ACB 1-4 OR = 9.79, 95% CI 5.63-17.02, ACB 5+ OR = 23.74, 95% CI 12.29-45.83). Daytime drowsiness was associated with higher ACB (P<0.001) and chronic constipation reported more frequently (26.6% ACB 5+ v. 7.5% ACB 0, P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Older people with intellectual disabilities and with mental health conditions were exposed to high anticholinergic burden. This was associated with daytime dozing and constipation.