Genetics and competing strategies in a threshold model for mail processing

Multi-agent algorithms inspired by the division of labour in social insects are applied to a problem of distributed mail retrieval in which agents must visit mail producing cities and choose between mail types under certain constraints.The efficiency (i.e. the average amount of mail retrieved per time step), and the flexibility (i.e. the capability of the agents to react to changes in the environment) are investigated both in static and dynamic environments. New rules for mail selection and specialisation are introduced and are shown to exhibit improved efficiency and flexibility compared to existing ones. We employ a genetic algorithm which allows the various rules to evolve and compete. Apart from obtaining optimised parameters for the various rules for any environment, we also observe extinction and speciation. From a more theoretical point of view, in order to avoid finite size effects, most results are obtained for large population sizes. However, we do analyse the influence of population size on the performance. Furthermore, we critically analyse the causes of efficiency loss, derive the exact dynamics of the model in the large system limit under certain conditions, derive theoretical upper bounds for the efficiency, and compare these with the experimental results.

A concept-based framework for retrieving evidence to support emergency physician decision making at the point of care

The goal of evidence-based medicine is to uniformly apply evidence gained from scientific research to aspects of clinical practice. In order to achieve this goal, new applications that integrate increasingly disparate health care information resources are required. Access to and provision of evidence must be seamlessly integrated with existing clinical workflow and evidence should be made available where it is most often required - at the point of care. In this paper we address these requirements and outline a concept-based framework that captures the context of a current patient-physician encounter by combining disease and patient-specific information into a logical query mechanism for retrieving relevant evidence from the Cochrane Library. Returned documents are organized by automatically extracting concepts from the evidence-based query to create meaningful clusters of documents which are presented in a manner appropriate for point of care support. The framework is currently being implemented as a prototype software agent that operates within the larger context of a multi-agent application for supporting workflow management of emergency pediatric asthma exacerbations. © 2008 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

Mathematical methods in power system stability studies

In this thesis various mathematical methods of studying the transient and dynamic stabiIity of practical power systems are presented. Certain long established methods are reviewed and refinements of some proposed. New methods are presented which remove some of the difficulties encountered in applying the powerful stability theories based on the concepts of Liapunov. Chapter 1 is concerned with numerical solution of the transient stability problem. Following a review and comparison of synchronous machine models the superiority of a particular model from the point of view of combined computing time and accuracy is demonstrated. A digital computer program incorporating all the synchronous machine models discussed, and an induction machine model, is described and results of a practical multi-machine transient stability study are presented. Chapter 2 reviews certain concepts and theorems due to Liapunov. In Chapter 3 transient stability regions of single, two and multi~machine systems are investigated through the use of energy type Liapunov functions. The treatment removes several mathematical difficulties encountered in earlier applications of the method. In Chapter 4 a simple criterion for the steady state stability of a multi-machine system is developed and compared with established criteria and a state space approach. In Chapters 5, 6 and 7 dynamic stability and small signal dynamic response are studied through a state space representation of the system. In Chapter 5 the state space equations are derived for single machine systems. An example is provided in which the dynamic stability limit curves are plotted for various synchronous machine representations. In Chapter 6 the state space approach is extended to multi~machine systems. To draw conclusions concerning dynamic stability or dynamic response the system eigenvalues must be properly interpreted, and a discussion concerning correct interpretation is included. Chapter 7 presents a discussion of the optimisation of power system small sjgnal performance through the use of Liapunov functions.

Exploiting uncertainty in nonlinear stochastic control problem

This work introduces a novel inversion-based neurocontroller for solving control problems involving uncertain nonlinear systems which could also compensate for multi-valued systems. The approach uses recent developments in neural networks, especially in the context of modelling statistical distributions, which are applied to forward and inverse plant models. Provided that certain conditions are met, an estimate of the intrinsic uncertainty for the outputs of neural networks can be obtained using the statistical properties of networks. More generally, multicomponent distributions can be modelled by the mixture density network. Based on importance sampling from these distributions a novel robust inverse control approach is obtained. This importance sampling provides a structured and principled approach to constrain the complexity of the search space for the ideal control law. The developed methodology circumvents the dynamic programming problem by using the predicted neural network uncertainty to localise the possible control solutions to consider. Convergence of the output error for the proposed control method is verified by using a Lyapunov function. Several simulation examples are provided to demonstrate the efficiency of the developed control method. The manner in which such a method is extended to nonlinear multi-variable systems with different delays between the input-output pairs is considered and demonstrated through simulation examples.

Evolution of competing strategies in a threshold model for task allocation

A nature inspired decentralised multi-agent algorithm is proposed to solve a problem of distributed task allocation in which cities produce and store batches of different mail types. Agents must collect and process the mail batches, without global knowledge of their environment or communication between agents. The problem is constrained so that agents are penalised for switching mail types. When an agent process a mail batch of different type to the previous one, it must undergo a change-over, with repeated change-overs rendering the agent inactive. The efficiency (average amount of mail retrieved), and the flexibility (ability of the agents to react to changes in the environment) are investigated both in static and dynamic environments and with respect to sudden changes. New rules for mail selection and specialisation are proposed and are shown to exhibit improved efficiency and flexibility compared to existing ones. We employ a evolutionary algorithm which allows the various rules to evolve and compete. Apart from obtaining optimised parameters for the various rules for any environment, we also observe extinction and speciation.

PMD tolerance of 288 Gbit/s Coherent WDM and transmission over unrepeatered 124 km of field-installed single mode optical fiber

Low-cost, high-capacity optical transmission systems are required for metropolitan area networks. Direct-detected multi-carrier systems are attractive candidates, but polarization mode dispersion (PMD) is one of the major impairments that limits their performance. In this paper, we report the first experimental analysis of the PMD tolerance of a 288Gbit/s NRZ-OOK Coherent Wavelength Division Multiplexing system. The results show that this impairment is determined primarily by the subcarrier baud rate. We confirm the robustness of the system to PMD by demonstrating error-free performance over an unrepeatered 124km field-installed single-mode fiber with a negligible penalty of 0.3dB compared to the back-to-back measurements. (C) 2010 Optical Society of America

Offset-QAM based coherent WDM for spectral efficiency enhancement

Optically multiplexed multi-carrier systems with channel spacing reduced to the symbol rate per carrier are highly susceptible to inter-channel crosstalk, which places stringent requirements for the specifications of system components and hinders the use of high-level formats. In this paper, we investigate the performance benefits of using offset 4-, 16-, and 64-quadrature amplitude modulation (QAM) in coherent wavelength division multiplexing (CoWDM). We compare this system with recently reported Nyquist WDM and no-guard-interval optical coherent orthogonal frequency division multiplexing, and show that the presented system greatly relaxes the requirements for device specifications and enhances the spectral efficiency by enabling the use of high-level QAM. The achieved performance can approach the theoretical limits using practical components.

Towards a practical implementation of coherent WDM:analytical, numerical, and experimental studies

Future optical networks will require the implementation of very high capacity (and therefore spectral efficient) technologies. Multi-carrier systems, such as Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (OFDM) and Coherent WDM (CoWDM), are promising candidates. In this paper, we present analytical, numerical, and experimental investigations of the impact of the relative phases between optical subcarriers of CoWDM systems, as well as the effect that the number of independently modulated subcarriers can have on the performance. We numerically demonstrate a five-subcarrier and three-subcarrier 10-GBd CoWDM system with direct detected amplitude shift keying (ASK) and differentially/coherently detected (D) phase shift keying (PSK). The simulation results are compared with experimental measurements of a 32-Gbit/s DPSK CoWDM system in two configurations. The first configuration was a practical 3-modulator array where all three subcarriers were independently modulated, the second configuration being a traditional 2-modulator odd/even configuration, where only odd and even subcarriers were independently modulated. Simulation and experimental results both indicate that the independent modulation implementation has a greater dependency on the relative phases between subcarriers, with a stronger penalty for the center subcarrier than the odd/even modulation scheme.

Relation discovery from web data for competency management

In current organizations, valuable enterprise knowledge is often buried under rapidly expanding huge amount of unstructured information in the form of web pages, blogs, and other forms of human text communications. We present a novel unsupervised machine learning method called CORDER (COmmunity Relation Discovery by named Entity Recognition) to turn these unstructured data into structured information for knowledge management in these organizations. CORDER exploits named entity recognition and co-occurrence data to associate individuals in an organization with their expertise and associates. We discuss the problems associated with evaluating unsupervised learners and report our initial evaluation experiments in an expert evaluation, a quantitative benchmarking, and an application of CORDER in a social networking tool called BuddyFinder.

Noise and gain optimisation in bi-directionally pumped dispersion compensating amplifier modules

We perform optimisation of bi-directionally pumped dispersion compensating Raman amplifier modules. Optimal forward and backward pump powers for basic configurations using different commercially available fibers are presented for both single- and multi-channel systems. Optical signal-to-noise ratio improvement of up to 8 dB is achieved as a result of optimisation. © 2003 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Local economic development initiatives and the transition from training and enterprise councils to new institutional structures in England

Current British government economic development policy emphasises regional and sub-regional scale, multi-agent initiatives that form part of national frameworks to encourage a 'bottom up' approach to economic development. An emphasis on local multi-agent initiatives was also the mission of Training and Enterprise Councils (TECs). Using new survey evidence this article tracks the progress of a number of initiatives established under the TECs, using the TEC Discretionary Fund as an example. It assesses the ability of successor bodies to be more effective in promoting local economic development. Survey evidence is used to confirm that many projects previously set up by the TECs continue to operate successfully under new partnership arrangements. However as new structures have developed, and policy has become more centralized, it is less likely that similar local initiatives will be developed in future. There is evidence to suggest that with the end of the TECs a gap has emerged in the institutional infrastructure for local economic development, particularly with regard to workforce development. Much will depend in future on how the Regional Development Agencies deploy their growing power and resources.

An efficient knowledge transfer solution to a novel SMDP formalization of a broker's decision problem

This paper introduces a new technique for optimizing the trading strategy of brokers that autonomously trade in re- tail and wholesale markets. Simultaneous optimization of re- tail and wholesale strategies has been considered by existing studies as intractable. Therefore, each of these strategies is optimized separately and their interdependence is generally ignored, with resulting broker agents not aiming for a glob- ally optimal retail and wholesale strategy. In this paper, we propose a novel formalization, based on a semi-Markov deci- sion process (SMDP), which globally and simultaneously op- timizes retail and wholesale strategies. The SMDP is solved using hierarchical reinforcement learning (HRL) in multi- agent environments. To address the curse of dimensionality, which arises when applying SMDP and HRL to complex de- cision problems, we propose an ecient knowledge transfer approach. This enables the reuse of learned trading skills in order to speed up the learning in new markets, at the same time as making the broker transportable across market envi- ronments. The proposed SMDP-broker has been thoroughly evaluated in two well-established multi-agent simulation en- vironments within the Trading Agent Competition (TAC) community. Analysis of controlled experiments shows that this broker can outperform the top TAC-brokers. More- over, our broker is able to perform well in a wide range of environments by re-using knowledge acquired in previously experienced settings.

Optimising market share and profit margin:SMDP-based tariff pricing under the smart grid paradigm

Smart grid technologies have given rise to a liberalised and decentralised electricity market, enabling energy providers and retailers to have a better understanding of the demand side and its response to pricing signals. This paper puts forward a reinforcement-learning-powered tool aiding an electricity retailer to define the tariff prices it offers, in a bid to optimise its retail strategy. In a competitive market, an energy retailer aims to simultaneously increase the number of contracted customers and its profit margin. We have abstracted the problem of deciding on a tariff price as faced by a retailer, as a semi-Markov decision problem (SMDP). A hierarchical reinforcement learning approach, MaxQ value function decomposition, is applied to solve the SMDP through interactions with the market. To evaluate our trading strategy, we developed a retailer agent (termed AstonTAC) that uses the proposed SMDP framework to act in an open multi-agent simulation environment, the Power Trading Agent Competition (Power TAC). An evaluation and analysis of the 2013 Power TAC finals show that AstonTAC successfully selects sell prices that attract as many customers as necessary to maximise the profit margin. Moreover, during the competition, AstonTAC was the only retailer agent performing well across all retail market settings.

A mixture density network approach to modelling and exploiting uncertainty in nonlinear control problems

In nonlinear and stochastic control problems, learning an efficient feed-forward controller is not amenable to conventional neurocontrol methods. For these approaches, estimating and then incorporating uncertainty in the controller and feed-forward models can produce more robust control results. Here, we introduce a novel inversion-based neurocontroller for solving control problems involving uncertain nonlinear systems which could also compensate for multi-valued systems. The approach uses recent developments in neural networks, especially in the context of modelling statistical distributions, which are applied to forward and inverse plant models. Provided that certain conditions are met, an estimate of the intrinsic uncertainty for the outputs of neural networks can be obtained using the statistical properties of networks. More generally, multicomponent distributions can be modelled by the mixture density network. Based on importance sampling from these distributions a novel robust inverse control approach is obtained. This importance sampling provides a structured and principled approach to constrain the complexity of the search space for the ideal control law. The developed methodology circumvents the dynamic programming problem by using the predicted neural network uncertainty to localise the possible control solutions to consider. A nonlinear multi-variable system with different delays between the input-output pairs is used to demonstrate the successful application of the developed control algorithm. The proposed method is suitable for redundant control systems and allows us to model strongly non-Gaussian distributions of control signal as well as processes with hysteresis. © 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

BOWL:augmenting the semantic web with beliefs

As the Semantic Web is an open, complex and constantly evolving medium, it is the norm, but not exception that information at different sites is incomplete or inconsistent. This poses challenges for the engineering and development of agent systems on the Semantic Web, since autonomous software agents need to understand, process and aggregate this information. Ontology language OWL provides core language constructs to semantically markup resources on the Semantic Web, on which software agents interact and cooperate to accomplish complex tasks. However, as OWL was designed on top of (a subset of) classic predicate logic, it lacks the ability to reason about inconsistent or incomplete information. Belief-augmented Frames (BAF) is a frame-based logic system that associates with each frame a supporting and a refuting belief value. In this paper, we propose a new ontology language Belief-augmented OWL (BOWL) by integrating OWL DL and BAF to incorporate the notion of confidence. BOWL is paraconsistent, hence it can perform useful reasoning services in the presence of inconsistencies and incompleteness. We define the abstract syntax and semantics of BOWL by extending those of OWL. We have proposed reasoning algorithms for various reasoning tasks in the BOWL framework and we have implemented the algorithms using the constraint logic programming framework. One example in the sensor fusion domain is presented to demonstrate the application of BOWL.