Modelling data and voice traffic over IP networks using continuous-time Markov models

Common approaches to IP-traffic modelling have featured the use of stochastic models, based on the Markov property, which can be classified into black box and white box models based on the approach used for modelling traffic. White box models, are simple to understand, transparent and have a physical meaning attributed to each of the associated parameters. To exploit this key advantage, this thesis explores the use of simple classic continuous-time Markov models based on a white box approach, to model, not only the network traffic statistics but also the source behaviour with respect to the network and application. The thesis is divided into two parts: The first part focuses on the use of simple Markov and Semi-Markov traffic models, starting from the simplest two-state model moving upwards to n-state models with Poisson and non-Poisson statistics. The thesis then introduces the convenient to use, mathematically derived, Gaussian Markov models which are used to model the measured network IP traffic statistics. As one of the most significant contributions, the thesis establishes the significance of the second-order density statistics as it reveals that, in contrast to first-order density, they carry much more unique information on traffic sources and behaviour. The thesis then exploits the use of Gaussian Markov models to model these unique features and finally shows how the use of simple classic Markov models coupled with use of second-order density statistics provides an excellent tool for capturing maximum traffic detail, which in itself is the essence of good traffic modelling. The second part of the thesis, studies the ON-OFF characteristics of VoIP traffic with reference to accurate measurements of the ON and OFF periods, made from a large multi-lingual database of over 100 hours worth of VoIP call recordings. The impact of the language, prosodic structure and speech rate of the speaker on the statistics of the ON-OFF periods is analysed and relevant conclusions are presented. Finally, an ON-OFF VoIP source model with log-normal transitions is contributed as an ideal candidate to model VoIP traffic and the results of this model are compared with those of previously published work.

Size frequency distributions of β-amyloid (Aβ) deposits:a comparative study of four neurodegenerative disorders

Deposition of ß-amyloid (Aß ), a 'signature' pathological lesion of Alzheimer's disease (AD), is also characteristic of Down's syndrome (DS), and has been observed in dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB) and corticobasal degeneration (CBD). To determine whether the growth of Aß deposits was similar in these disorders, the size frequency distributions of the diffuse ('pre-amyloid'), primitive ('neuritic'), and classic ('dense-cored') A ß deposits were compared in AD, DS, DLB, and CBD. All size distributions had essentially the same shape, i.e., they were unimodal and positively skewed. Mean size of Aß deposits, however, varied between disorders. Mean diameters of the diffuse, primitive, and classic deposits were greatest in DS, DS and CBD, and DS, respectively, while the smallest deposits, on average, were recorded in DLB. Although the shape of the frequency distributions was approximately log-normal, the model underestimated the frequency of smaller deposits and overestimated the frequency of larger deposits in all disorders. A 'power-law' model fitted the size distributions of the primitive deposits in AD, DS, and DLB, and the diffuse deposits in AD. The data suggest: (1) similarities in size distributions of Aß deposits among disorders, (2) growth of deposits varies with subtype and disorder, (3) different factors are involved in the growth of the diffuse/primitive and classic deposits, and (4) log-normal and power-law models do not completely account for the size frequency distributions.

Development of areolae and growth of the peripheral prothallus in the crustose lichen Rhizocarpon geographicum:an image analysis study

Areolae of the crustose lichen Rhizocarpon geographicum (L.) DC., are present on the peripheral prothallus (marginal areolae) and also aggregate to form confluent masses in the centre of the thallus (central areolae). To determine the relationships between these areolae and whether growth of the peripheral prothallus is dependent on the marginal areolae, the density, morphology, and size frequency distributions of marginal areolae were measured in 23 thalli of R. geographicum in north Wales, UK using image analysis (Image J). Size and morphology of central areolae were also studied across the thallus. Marginal areolae were small, punctate, and occurred in clusters scattered over the peripheral prothallus while central areolae were larger and had a lobed structure. The size-class frequency distributions of the marginal and central areolae were fitted by power-law and log-normal models respectively. In 16 out of 23 thalli, central areolae close to the outer edge were larger and had a more complex lobed morphology than those towards the thallus centre. Neither mean width nor radial growth rate (RaGR) of the peripheral prothallus were correlated with density, diameter, or area fraction of marginal areolae. The data suggest central areolae may develop from marginal areolae as follows: (1) marginal areolae develop in clusters at the periphery and fuse to form central areolae, (2) central areolae grow exponentially, and (3) crowding of central areolae results in constriction and fragmentation. In addition, growth of the peripheral prothallus may be unrelated to the marginal areolae. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.

Approximate axial symmetries from continuous time quantum walks

The analysis of complex networks is usually based on key properties such as small-worldness and vertex degree distribution. The presence of symmetric motifs on the other hand has been related to redundancy and thus robustness of the networks. In this paper we propose a method for detecting approximate axial symmetries in networks. For each pair of nodes, we define a continuous-time quantum walk which is evolved through time. By measuring the probability that the quantum walker to visits each node of the network in this time frame, we are able to determine whether the two vertices are symmetrical with respect to any axis of the graph. Moreover, we show that we are able to successfully detect approximate axial symmetries too. We show the efficacy of our approach by analysing both synthetic and real-world data. © 2012 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

β-amyloid (Aβ) deposition in cognitively normal brain, dementia with Lewy bodies, and Alzheimer's disease:a study using principal components analysis

The densities of diffuse, primitive, and classic ß-amyloid (Aß) deposits were studied in the temporal lobe in cognitively normal brain, dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB), familial Alzheimer’s disease (FAD), and sporadic AD (SAD). Principal components analysis (PCA) was used to determine whether there were distinct differences between groups or whether Aß pathology was more continuously distributed from group to group. Three principal components (PC) were extracted from the data accounting for 56% of the total variance. Plots of cases in relation to the PC did not result in distinct groups but suggested overlap in Aß deposition between the groups. In addition, there were linear correlations between the densities of Aß deposits and the distribution of the cases along the PC in specific brain regions suggesting continuous variation from group to group. PC1 was associated with the degree of maturation of Aß deposits, PC2 with differences between FAD and SAD, and PC3 with the degree of spread of Aß pathology into the hippocampus. Apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotype was not associated with variation in Aß deposition between cases. PCA may be a useful method of studying the pathological interface between closely related neurodegenerative disorders.

The interface between Alzheimer's disease, normal aging, and related disorders

Since the earliest descriptions of Alzheimer's disease (AD), the presence of senile plaques (SP) and neurofibrillary tangles (NFT) have been regarded as the typical pathological hallmarks of the disease. Studies over the last twenty years, however, have reported a considerable degree of heterogeneity within the AD phenotype and as a consequence, an overlap between the pathological features of AD not only with normal aging, but also with disorders related to AD. This review discusses: 1) the degree of heterogeneity within AD, 2) the concept of an 'interface' between disorders, 3) the nature and degree of the interface between AD and normal aging, vascular dementia (VD), the tauopathies, synucleinopathies, and prion disease, and 4) whether the original status of AD should be retained or whether AD, normal aging, and the related disorders should be regarded as representing a 'continuum' of neuropathological change.

The topographic distribution of the magnetic P100M to full- and half-field stimulation

Visual evoked magnetic responses were recorded to full-field and left and right half-field stimulation with three check sizes (70′, 34′ and 22′) in five normal subjects. Recordings were made sequentially on a 20-position grid (4 × 5) based on the inion, by means of a single-channel direct current-Superconducting Quantum Interference Device second-order gradiometer. The topographic maps were consistent on the same subjects recorded 2 months apart. The half-field responses produced the strongest signals in the contralateral hemisphere and were consistent with the cruciform model of the calcarine fissure. Right half fields produced upper-left-quadrant outgoing fields and lower-left-quadrant ingoing fields, while the left half field produced the opposite response. The topographic maps also varied with check size, with the larger checks producing positive or negative maximum position more anteriorly than small checks. In addition, with large checks the full-field responses could be explained as the summation of the two half fields, whereas full-field responses to smaller checks were more unpredictable and may be due to sources located at the occipital pole or lateral surface. In addition, dipole sources were located as appropriate with the use of inverse problem solutions. Topographic data will be vital to the clinical use of the visual evoked field but, in addition, provides complementary information to visual evoked potentials, allowing detailed studies of the visual cortex. © 1992 Kluwer Academic Publishers.

A cationic vaccine adjuvant based on a saturated quaternary ammonium lipid have different in vivo distribution kinetics and display a distinct CD4 T cell-inducing capacity compared to its unsaturated analog

Adjuvants are often composed of different constituents that can be divided into two groups based on their primary activity: the delivery system which carries and presents the vaccine antigen to antigen-presenting cells, and the immunostimulator that activates and modulates the ensuing immune response. Herein, we have investigated the importance of the delivery system and in particular its physical characteristics by comparing the delivery properties of two lipids which differ only in the degree of saturation of the acyl chains, rendering the liposomes either rigid (DDA, dimethyldioctadecylammonium) or highly fluid (DODA, dimethyldioleoylammonium) at physiological temperature. We show that these delivery systems are remarkably different in their ability to prime a Th1-directed immune response with the rigid DDA-based liposomes inducing a response more than 100 times higher compared to that obtained with the fluid DODA-based liposomes. Upon injection with a vaccine antigen, DDA-based liposomes form a vaccine depot that results in a continuous attraction of antigen-presenting cells that engulf a high amount of adjuvant and are subsequently efficiently activated as measured by an elevated expression of the co-stimulatory molecules CD40 and CD86. In contrast, the fluid DODA-based liposomes are more rapidly removed from the site of injection resulting in a lower up-regulation of co-stimulatory CD40 and CD86 molecules on adjuvant-positive antigen-presenting cells. Additionally, the vaccine antigen is readily dissociated from the DODA-based liposomes leading to a population of antigen-presenting cells that are antigen-positive but adjuvant-negative and consequently are not activated. These studies demonstrate the importance of studying in vivo characteristics of the vaccine components and furthermore show that physicochemical properties of the delivery system have a major impact on the vaccine-induced immune response. © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Alzheimer's disease: size class frequency distribution of senile plaques: do they indicate when a brain tissue was affected?

The size class frequency distribution of a sample of senile plaques (SP) was determined in a total of 20 brain regions from 5 elderly cases of Alzheimer's disease (AD). The purpose of the study was to determine whether a comparison of the frequency distributions could be used to determine the chronology of SP development in the AD brain. SP from 10 microns to a maximum diameter of 160 microns were present in the tissue and the size class frequency distributions were positively skewed. The frequency distributions varied between brain regions in: (1) the size class containing the mode, (2) the degree of positive skew, and (3) the ratio of large to small SP. In most patients the ratio of large to small SP was higher in the hippocampus or adjacent gyrus compared with temporal, parietal and frontal neocortex. If the diameter of a SP reflects its age in the tissue than the data suggest that SP formed earlier either in the hippocampus or adjacent gyrus compared with the other neocortical tissues. However, this conclusion rests on a number of assumptions including: (1) that SP diameter is directly related to age, (2) that SP development occurs at similar rates in different brain regions and (3) that, once formed, SP are not removed from the tissue by astrocytes.

Measuring the degree of spatial correlation between pathological lesions in Alzheimer's disease

The pathological lesions characteristic of Alzheimer's disease (AD), viz., senile plaques (SP) and neurofibrillary tangles (NFT) may not be randomly distributed with reference to each other but exhibit a degree of sptial association or correlation, information on the degree of association between SP and NFT or between the lesions and normal histological features, such as neuronal perikarya and blood vessels, may be valuable in elucidating the pathogenesis of AD. This article reviews the statistical methods available for studying the degree of spatial association in histological sections of AD tissue. These include tests of interspecific association between two or more histological features using chi-square contingency tables, measurement of 'complete' and 'absolute' association, and more complex methods that use grids of contiguous samples. In addition, analyses of association using correlation matrices and stepwise multiple regression methods are described. The advantages and limitations of each method are reviewed and possible future developments discussed.

Statnote 1: is the data normal?

Testing whether an observed distribution of observations deviates from normality is a common type of statistical test available in statistics software. Most software offer two ways of judging whether there are significant deviations of the observed from the expected distributions, viz., chi-square and the KS test. These tests have different sensitivities and problems and often give conflicting results. The results of these tests together with observations of the shape of the observed distribution should be used to judge normality.

Statnote 4: what if the data are not normal?

When testing the difference between two groups, if previous data indicate non-normality, then either transform the data if they comprise percentages, integers or scores or use a non-parametric test. If there is uncertainty whether the data are normally distributed, then deviations from normality are likely to be small if the data are measurements to three significant figures. Unless there is clear evidence that the distribution is non-normal, it is more efficient to use the conventional t-tests. It is poor statistical practice to carry out both the parametric and non-parametric tests on a set of data and then choose the result that is most convenient to the investigator!

Further studies on flow distribution on distillation sieve trays

The thesis describes experimental work on the possibility of using deflection baffles in conventional distillation trays as flow straightening devices, with the view of enhancing tray efficiency. The mode of operation is based on deflecting part of the liquid momentum from the centre of the tray to the segment regions in order to drive stagnating liquid at the edges forward. The first part of the work was a detailed investigation into the two-phase flow patterns produced on a conventional sieve tray having 1 mm hole size perforations. The data provide a check on some earlier work and extend the range of the existing databank, particularly to conditions more typical of industrial operation. A critical survey of data collected on trays with different hole sizes (Hine, 1990; Chambers, 1993; Fenwick, 1996; this work) showed that the hole diameter has a significant influence on the flow regime, the size of the stagnant regions and the hydraulic and mass transfer performance. Five modified tray topologies were created with different configurations of baffles and tested extensively in the 2.44 m diameter air-water pilot distillation simulator for their efficacy in achieving uniform flow across the tray and for their impact on tray loading capacity and mass transfer efficiency. Special attention was given to the calibration of the over 100 temperature probes used in measuring the water temperature across the tray on which the heat and mass transfer analogy is based. In addition to normal tray capacity experiments, higher weir load experiments were conducted using a 'half-tray' mode in order to extend the range of data to conditions more typical of industrial operation. The modified trays show superior flow characteristics compared to the conventional tray in terms of the ability to replenish the zones of exceptionally low temperatures and high residence times at the edges of the tray, to lower the bulk liquid gradient and to achieve a more uniform flow across the tray. These superior flow abilities, however, tend to diminish with increasing weir load because of the increasing tendency for the liquid to jump over the barriers instead of flowing over them. The modified tray topologies showed no tendency to cause undue limitation to tray loading capacity. Although the improvement in the efficiency of a single tray over that of the conventional tray was moderate and in some cases marginal, the multiplier effect in a multiple tray column situation would be significant (Porter et al., 1972). These results are in good agreement with an associated CFD studies (Fischer, 1999) carried out by partners in the Advanced Studies in Distillation consortium. It is concluded that deflection baffles can be used in a conventional distillation sieve tray to achieve better liquid flow distribution and obtain enhanced mass transfer efficiency, without undermining the tray loading capacity. Unlike any other controlled-flow tray whose mechanical complexity impose stringent manufacturing and installation tolerances, the baffled-tray models are simple to design, manufacture and install and thus provide an economic method of retrofitting badly performing sieve trays both in terms of downtime and fabrication. NOTE APPENDICES 2-5 ARE ON A SEPARATE FLOPPY DISK ONLY AVAILABLE FOR CONSULTATION AT ASTON UNIVERSITY LIBRARY WITH PRIOR ARRANGEMENT

An assessment of the performance of high density polyethylene copolymers for natural gas distribution pipes

The total thermoplastics pipe market in west Europe is estimated at 900,000 metric tonnes for 1977 and is projected to grow to some 1.3 million tonnes of predominantly PVC and polyolefins pipe by 1985. By that time, polyethylene for gas distribution pipe and fittings will represent some 30% of the total polyethylene pipe market. The performance characteristics of a high density polyethylene are significantly influenced by both molecular weight and type of comonomer; the major influences being in the long-term hoop stress resistance and the environmental stress cracking resistance. Minor amounts of hexene-1 are more effective than comonomers lower in the homologous series, although there is some sacrifice of density related properties. A synergistic improvement is obtained by combining molecular weight increase with copolymerisation. The Long-term design strength of polyethylene copolymers can be determined from hoop stress measurement at elevated temperatures and by means of a separation factor of approximate value 22, extrapolation can be made to room temperature performance for a water environment. A polyethylene of black composition has a sufficiently improved performance over yellow pigmented pipe to cast doubts on the validity of internationally specifying yellow coded pipe for gas distribution service. The chemical environment (condensate formation) that can exist in natural gas distribution networks has a deleterious effect on the pipe performance the reduction amounting to at least two decades in log time. Desorption of such condensate is very slow and the influence of the more aggressive aromatic components is to lead to premature stress cracking. For natural gas distribution purposes, the design stress rating should be 39 Kg/cm2 for polyethylenes in the molecular weight range of 150 - 200,000 and 55 Kg/cm2 for higher molecular weight materials.

Gold mineralisation in the Caledonides of the British Isles with special reference to the Dolgellau Gold-belt, North Wales and the Southern Uplands, Scotland. Available in 2 volumes.

Two aspects of gold mineralisation in the Caledonides of the British Isles have been investigated: gold-telluride mineralisation at Clogau Mine, North Wales; and placer gold mineralisation in the Southern Uplands, Scotland. The primary ore assemblage at Clogau Mine is pyrite, arsenopyrite, cobaltite, pyrrhotine, chalcopyrite, galena, tellurbismuth, tetradymite, altaite, hessite, native gold, wehrlite, hedleyite, native bismuth, bismuthunite and various sulphosalts. The generalised paragenesis is early Fe, Co, Cu, As and S species, and later minerals of Pb, Bi, Ag, Au, Te, Sb. Electron probe micro-analysis (EPMA) of complex telluride-sulphide intergrowths suggests that these intergrowths formed by co-crystallisation/replacement processes and not exsolution. Minor element chemical variation, in the sulphides and tellurides, indicates that antimony and cadmium are preferentially partitioned into telluride minerals. Mineral stability diagrams suggest that during gold deposition log bf aTe2 was between -7.9 and -9.7 and log bf aS2 between -12.4 and -13.8. Co-existing mineral assemblages indicate that the final stages of telluride mineralisation were between c. 250 - 275oC. It is suggested that the high-grade telluride ore shoot was the result of remobilisation of Au, Bi, Ag and Te from low grade mineralisation elsewhere within the vein system, and that gold deposition was brought about by destabilisation of gold chloride complexes by interaction with graphite, sulphides and tellurbismuth. Scanning electron microscopy of planer gold grains from the Southern Uplands, Scotland, indicates that detailed studies on the morphology of placer gold can be used to elucidate the history of gold in the placer environment. In total 18 different morphological characteristics were identified. These were divided on an empirical basis, using the relative degree of mechanical attrition, into proximal and distal characteristics. One morphological characteristic (a porous/spongy surface at high magnification) is considered to be chemical in origin and represent the growth of `new' gold in the placer environment. The geographical distribution of morphological characteristics has been examined and suggests that proximal placer gold is spatially associated with the Loch Doon, Cairsphairn and Fleet granitoids. Quantitative EPMA of the placer gold reveals two compositional populations of placer gold. Examination of the geographical distribution of fineness suggests a loose spatial association between granitoids and low fineness placer gold. Also identified was chemically heterogeneous placer gold. EPMA studies of these heterogeneities allowed estimation of annealing history limits, which suggest that the heterogeneities formed between 150 and 235oC. It is concluded, on the basis of relationships between morphology and composition, that there are two types of placer gold in the Southern Uplands: (i) placer gold which is directly inherited from a hypogene source probably spatially associated with granitoids; and (ii) placer gold that has formed during supergene processes.