Approximately optimal experimental design for heteroscedastic Gaussian process models

This paper presents a greedy Bayesian experimental design criterion for heteroscedastic Gaussian process models. The criterion is based on the Fisher information and is optimal in the sense of minimizing parameter uncertainty for likelihood based estimators. We demonstrate the validity of the criterion under different noise regimes and present experimental results from a rabies simulator to demonstrate the effectiveness of the resulting approximately optimal designs.

CORD an object model supporting statistical summary information for management decision making

Information systems have developed to the stage that there is plenty of data available in most organisations but there are still major problems in turning that data into information for management decision making. This thesis argues that the link between decision support information and transaction processing data should be through a common object model which reflects the real world of the organisation and encompasses the artefacts of the information system. The CORD (Collections, Objects, Roles and Domains) model is developed which is richer in appropriate modelling abstractions than current Object Models. A flexible Object Prototyping tool based on a Semantic Data Storage Manager has been developed which enables a variety of models to be stored and experimented with. A statistical summary table model COST (Collections of Objects Statistical Table) has been developed within CORD and is shown to be adequate to meet the modelling needs of Decision Support and Executive Information Systems. The COST model is supported by a statistical table creator and editor COSTed which is also built on top of the Object Prototyper and uses the CORD model to manage its metadata.

Multi-topic information filtering with a single user profile

In Information Filtering (IF) a user may be interested in several topics in parallel. But IF systems have been built on representational models derived from Information Retrieval and Text Categorization, which assume independence between terms. The linearity of these models results in user profiles that can only represent one topic of interest. We present a methodology that takes into account term dependencies to construct a single profile representation for multiple topics, in the form of a hierarchical term network. We also introduce a series of non-linear functions for evaluating documents against the profile. Initial experiments produced positive results.

Models of gas-liquid solubilities

A recent method for phase equilibria, the AGAPE method, has been used to predict activity coefficients and excess Gibbs energy for binary mixtures with good accuracy. The theory, based on a generalised London potential (GLP), accounts for intermolecular attractive forces. Unlike existing prediction methods, for example UNIFAC, the AGAPE method uses only information derived from accessible experimental data and molecular information for pure components. Presently, the AGAPE method has some limitations, namely that the mixtures must consist of small, non-polar compounds with no hydrogen bonding, at low moderate pressures and at conditions below the critical conditions of the components. Distinction between vapour-liquid equilibria and gas-liquid solubility is rather arbitrary and it seems reasonable to extend these ideas to solubility. The AGAPE model uses a molecular lattice-based mixing rule. By judicious use of computer programs a methodology was created to examine a body of experimental gas-liquid solubility data for gases such as carbon dioxide, propane, n-butane or sulphur hexafluoride which all have critical temperatures a little above 298 K dissolved in benzene, cyclo-hexane and methanol. Within this methodology the value of the GLP as an ab initio combining rule for such solutes in very dilute solutions in a variety of liquids has been tested. Using the GLP as a mixing rule involves the computation of rotationally averaged interactions between the constituent atoms, and new calculations have had to be made to discover the magnitude of the unlike pair interactions. These numbers have been seen as significant in their own right in the context of the behaviour of infinitely-dilute solutions. A method for extending this treatment to "permanent" gases has also been developed. The findings from the GLP method and from the more general AGAPE approach have been examined in the context of other models for gas-liquid solubility, both "classical" and contemporary, in particular those derived from equations-of-state methods and from reference solvent methods.

A longitudinal study of the diffusion of the ISO/IEC information resource dictionary system standard (IRDS.)

The IRDS standard is an international standard produced by the International Organisation for Standardisation (ISO). In this work the process for producing standards in formal standards organisations, for example the ISO, and in more informal bodies, for example the Object Management Group (OMG), is examined. This thesis examines previous models and classifications of standards. The previous models and classifications are then combined to produce a new classification. The IRDS standard is then placed in a class in the new model as a reference anticipatory standard. Anticipatory standards are standards which are developed ahead of the technology in order to attempt to guide the market. The diffusion of the IRDS is traced over a period of eleven years. The economic conditions which affect the diffusion of standards are examined, particularly the economic conditions which prevail in compatibility markets such as the IT and ICT markets. Additionally the consequences of the introduction of gateway or converter devices into a market where a standard has not yet been established is examined. The IRDS standard did not have an installed base and this hindered its diffusion. The thesis concludes that the IRDS standard was overtaken by new developments such as object oriented technologies and middleware. This was partly because of the slow development process of developing standards in traditional organisations which operate on a consensus basis and partly because the IRDS standard did not have an installed base. Also the rise and proliferation of middleware products resulted in exchange mechanisms becoming dominant rather than repository solutions. The research method used in this work is a longitudinal study of the development and diffusion of the ISO/EEC IRDS standard. The research is regarded as a single case study and follows the interpretative epistemological point of view.

Automatic refinement of constructive solid geometry models

Geometric information relating to most engineering products is available in the form of orthographic drawings or 2D data files. For many recent computer based applications, such as Computer Integrated Manufacturing (CIM), these data are required in the form of a sophisticated model based on Constructive Solid Geometry (CSG) concepts. A recent novel technique in this area transfers 2D engineering drawings directly into a 3D solid model called `the first approximation'. In many cases, however, this does not represent the real object. In this thesis, a new method is proposed and developed to enhance this model. This method uses the notion of expanding an object in terms of other solid objects, which are either primitive or first approximation models. To achieve this goal, in addition to the prepared subroutine to calculate the first approximation model of input data, two other wireframe models are found for extraction of sub-objects. One is the wireframe representation on input, and the other is the wireframe of the first approximation model. A new fast method is developed for the latter special case wireframe, which is named the `first approximation wireframe model'. This method avoids the use of a solid modeller. Detailed descriptions of algorithms and implementation procedures are given. In these techniques utilisation of dashed line information is also considered in improving the model. Different practical examples are given to illustrate the functioning of the program. Finally, a recursive method is employed to automatically modify the output model towards the real object. Some suggestions for further work are made to increase the domain of objects covered, and provide a commercially usable package. It is concluded that the current method promises the production of accurate models for a large class of objects.

An Exploration of parametric software cost estimating models for Jackson Systems Development

Most parametric software cost estimation models used today evolved in the late 70's and early 80's. At that time, the dominant software development techniques being used were the early 'structured methods'. Since then, several new systems development paradigms and methods have emerged, one being Jackson Systems Development (JSD). As current cost estimating methods do not take account of these developments, their non-universality means they cannot provide adequate estimates of effort and hence cost. In order to address these shortcomings two new estimation methods have been developed for JSD projects. One of these methods JSD-FPA, is a top-down estimating method, based on the existing MKII function point method. The other method, JSD-COCOMO, is a sizing technique which sizes a project, in terms of lines of code, from the process structure diagrams and thus provides an input to the traditional COCOMO method.The JSD-FPA method allows JSD projects in both the real-time and scientific application areas to be costed, as well as the commercial information systems applications to which FPA is usually applied. The method is based upon a three-dimensional view of a system specification as opposed to the largely data-oriented view traditionally used by FPA. The method uses counts of various attributes of a JSD specification to develop a metric which provides an indication of the size of the system to be developed. This size metric is then transformed into an estimate of effort by calculating past project productivity and utilising this figure to predict the effort and hence cost of a future project. The effort estimates produced were validated by comparing them against the effort figures for six actual projects.The JSD-COCOMO method uses counts of the levels in a process structure chart as the input to an empirically derived model which transforms them into an estimate of delivered source code instructions.

Information management and the holistic, process-oriented enterprise

This research examines the role of the information management process within a process-oriented enterprise, Xerox Ltd. The research approach is based on a post-positive paradigm and has resulted in thirty-five idiographic statements. The three major outcomes are: 1. The process-oriented holistic enterprise is an organisation that requires a long-term management commitment to its development. It depends on the careful management of people, tasks, information and technology. A complex integration of business processes is required and this can be managed through the use of consistent documentation techniques, clarity in the definition of process responsibilities and management attention to the global metrics and the centralisation of the management of the process model are critical to its success. 2. The role of the information management process within the context of a process-oriented enterprise is to provide flexible and cost-effective applications, technological, and process support to the business. This is best achieved through a centralisation of the management of information management and of the process model. A business-led approach combined with the consolidation of applications, information, process, and data architectures is central to providing effective business and process-focused support. 3. In a process oriented holistic enterprise, process and information management are inextricably linked. The model of process management depends heavily on information management, whilst the model of information management is totally focused around supporting and creating the process model. The two models are mutually creating - one cannot exist without the other. There is a duality concept of process and information management.

Process orientation and information technology:customer engagement at Xerox (UK) Ltd

Xerox Customer Engagement activity is informed by the "Go To Market" strategy, and "Intelligent Coverage" sales philosophy. The realisation of this philosophy necessitates a sophisticated level of Market Understanding, and the effective integration of the direct channels of Customer Engagement. Sophisticated Market Understanding requires the mapping and coding of the entire UK market at the DMU (Decision Making Unit) level, which in turn enables the creation of tailored coverage prescriptions. Effective Channel Integration is made possible by the organisation of Customer Engagement work according to a single, process defined structure: the Selling Process. Organising by process facilitates the discipline of Task Substitution, which leads logically to creation of Hybrid Selling models. Productive Customer Engagement requires Selling Process specialisation by industry sector, customer segment and product group. The research shows that Xerox's Market Database (MDB) plays a central role in delivering the Go To Market strategic aims. It is a tool for knowledge based selling, enables productive SFA (Sales Force Automation) and, in sum, is critical to the efficient and effective deployment of Customer Engagement resources. Intelligent Coverage is not possible without the MDB. Analysis of the case evidence has resulted in the definition of 60 idiographic statements. These statements are about how Xerox organise and manage three direct channels of Customer Engagement: Face to Face, Telebusiness and Ebusiness. Xerox is shown to employ a process-oriented, IT-enabled, holistic approach to Customer Engagement productivity. The significance of the research is that it represents a detailed (perhaps unequalled) level of rich description of the interplay between IT and a holistic, process-oriented management philosophy.

A comparative study of hospital management in Great Britain and Brazil : cost information use

In Great Britain and Brazil healthcare is free at the point of delivery and based study only on citizenship. However, the British NHS is fifty-five years old and has undergone extensive reforms. The Brazilian SUS is barely fifteen years old. This research investigated the middle management mediation role within hospitals comparing managerial planning and control using cost information in Great Britain and Brazil. This investigation was conducted in two stages entailing quantitative and qualitative techniques. The first stage was a survey involving managers of 26 NHS Trusts in Great Britain and 22 public hospitals in Brazil. The second stage consisted of interviews, 10 in Great Britain and 22 in Brazil, conducted in four selected hospitals, two in each country. This research builds on the literature by investigating the interaction of contingency theory and modes of governance in a cross-national study in terms of public hospitals. It further builds on the existing literature by measuring managerial dimensions related to cost information usefulness. The project unveils the practice involved in planning and control processes. It highlights important elements such as the use of predictive models and uncertainty reduction when planning. It uncovers the different mechanisms employed on control processes. It also depicts that planning and control within British hospitals are structured procedures and guided by overall goals. In contrast, planning and control processes in Brazilian hospitals are accidental, involving more ad hoc actions and a profusion of goals. The clinicians in British hospitals have been integrated into the management hierarchy. Their use of cost information in planning and control processes reflects this integration. However, in Brazil, clinicians have been shown to operate more independently and make little use of cost information but the potential signalled for cost information use is seen to be even greater than that of their British counterparts.

In search of a theory of list memory: an inquiry into the efects of long-term information on short-term recall

Over recent years, evidence has been accumulating in favour of the importance of long-term information as a variable which can affect the success of short-term recall. Lexicality, word frequency, imagery and meaning have all been shown to augment short term recall performance. Two competing theories as to the causes of this long-term memory influence are outlined and tested in this thesis. The first approach is the order-encoding account, which ascribes the effect to the usage of resources at encoding, hypothesising that word lists which require less effort to process will benefit from increased levels of order encoding, in turn enhancing recall success. The alternative view, trace redintegration theory, suggests that order is automatically encoded phonologically, and that long-term information can only influence the interpretation of the resultant memory trace. The free recall experiments reported here attempted to determine the importance of order encoding as a facilitatory framework and to determine the locus of the effects of long-term information in free recall. Experiments 1 and 2 examined the effects of word frequency and semantic categorisation over a filled delay, and experiments 3 and 4 did the same for immediate recall. Free recall was improved by both long-term factors tested. Order information was not used over a short filled delay, but was evident in immediate recall. Furthermore, it was found that both long-term factors increased the amount of order information retained. Experiment 5 induced an order encoding effect over a filled delay, leaving a picture of short-term processes which are closely associated with long-term processes, and which fit conceptions of short-term memory being part of language processes rather better than either the encoding or the retrieval-based models. Experiments 6 and 7 aimed to determine to what extent phonological processes were responsible for the pattern of results observed. Articulatory suppression affected the encoding of order information where speech rate had no direct influence, suggesting that it is ease of lexical access which is the most important factor in the influence of long-term memory on immediate recall tasks. The evidence presented in this thesis does not offer complete support for either the retrieval-based account or the order encoding account of long-term influence. Instead, the evidence sits best with models that are based upon language-processing. The path urged for future research is to find ways in which this diffuse model can be better specified, and which can take account of the versatility of the human brain.

Exchange-traded funds and information asymmetry

This thesis focuses on three main questions. The first uses ExchangeTraded Funds (ETFs) to evaluate estimated adverse selection costs obtained spread decomposition models. The second compares the Probability of Informed Trading (PIN) in Exchange-Traded Funds to control securities. The third examines the intra-day ETF trading patterns. These spread decomposition models evaluated are Glosten and Harris (1988); George, Kaul, and Nimalendran (1991); Lin, Sanger, and Booth (1995); Madhavan, Richardson, and Roomans (1997); Huang and Stoll (1997). Using the characteristics of ETFs it is shown that only the Glosten and Harris (1988) and Madhavan, et al (1997) models provide theoretically consistent results. When the PIN measure is employed ETFs are shown to have greater PINs than control securities. The investigation of the intra-day trading patterns shows that return volatility and trading volume have a U-shaped intra-day pattern. A study of trading systems shows that ETFs on the American Stock Exchange (AMEX) have a U-shaped intra-day pattern of bid-ask spreads, while ETFs on NASDAQ do not. Specifically, ETFs on NASDAQ have higher bid-ask spreads at the market opening, then the lowest bid-ask spread in the middle of the day. At the close of the market, the bid-ask spread of ETFs on NASDAQ slightly elevated when compared to mid-day.

Modelling data and voice traffic over IP networks using continuous-time Markov models

Common approaches to IP-traffic modelling have featured the use of stochastic models, based on the Markov property, which can be classified into black box and white box models based on the approach used for modelling traffic. White box models, are simple to understand, transparent and have a physical meaning attributed to each of the associated parameters. To exploit this key advantage, this thesis explores the use of simple classic continuous-time Markov models based on a white box approach, to model, not only the network traffic statistics but also the source behaviour with respect to the network and application. The thesis is divided into two parts: The first part focuses on the use of simple Markov and Semi-Markov traffic models, starting from the simplest two-state model moving upwards to n-state models with Poisson and non-Poisson statistics. The thesis then introduces the convenient to use, mathematically derived, Gaussian Markov models which are used to model the measured network IP traffic statistics. As one of the most significant contributions, the thesis establishes the significance of the second-order density statistics as it reveals that, in contrast to first-order density, they carry much more unique information on traffic sources and behaviour. The thesis then exploits the use of Gaussian Markov models to model these unique features and finally shows how the use of simple classic Markov models coupled with use of second-order density statistics provides an excellent tool for capturing maximum traffic detail, which in itself is the essence of good traffic modelling. The second part of the thesis, studies the ON-OFF characteristics of VoIP traffic with reference to accurate measurements of the ON and OFF periods, made from a large multi-lingual database of over 100 hours worth of VoIP call recordings. The impact of the language, prosodic structure and speech rate of the speaker on the statistics of the ON-OFF periods is analysed and relevant conclusions are presented. Finally, an ON-OFF VoIP source model with log-normal transitions is contributed as an ideal candidate to model VoIP traffic and the results of this model are compared with those of previously published work.

Finding structures in information networks using the affinity network

This thesis proposes a novel graphical model for inference called the Affinity Network,which displays the closeness between pairs of variables and is an alternative to Bayesian Networks and Dependency Networks. The Affinity Network shares some similarities with Bayesian Networks and Dependency Networks but avoids their heuristic and stochastic graph construction algorithms by using a message passing scheme. A comparison with the above two instances of graphical models is given for sparse discrete and continuous medical data and data taken from the UCI machine learning repository. The experimental study reveals that the Affinity Network graphs tend to be more accurate on the basis of an exhaustive search with the small datasets. Moreover, the graph construction algorithm is faster than the other two methods with huge datasets. The Affinity Network is also applied to data produced by a synchronised system. A detailed analysis and numerical investigation into this dynamical system is provided and it is shown that the Affinity Network can be used to characterise its emergent behaviour even in the presence of noise.

Wealth effects of mergers and acquisitions for US firms: using alternative pricing models

This empirical study employs a different methodology to examine the change in wealth associated with mergers and acquisitions (M&As) for US firms. Specifically, we employ the standard CAPM, the Fama-French three-factor model and the Carhart four-factor models within the OLS and GJR-GARCH estimation methods to test the behaviour of the cumulative abnormal returns (CARs). Whilst the standard CAPM captures the variability of stock returns with the overall market, the Fama-French factors capture the risk factors that are important to investors. Additionally, augmenting the Fama-French three-factor model with the Carhart momentum factor to generate the four-factor captures additional pricing elements that may affect stock returns. Traditionally, estimates of abnormal returns (ARs) in M&As situations rely on the standard OLS estimation method. However, the standard OLS will provide inefficient estimates of the ARs if the data contain ARCH and asymmetric effects. To minimise this problem of estimation efficiency we re-estimated the ARs using GJR-GARCH estimation method. We find that there is variation in the results both as regards the choice models and estimation methods. Besides these variations in the estimated models and the choice of estimation methods, we also tested whether the ARs are affected by the degree of liquidity of the stocks and the size of the firm. We document significant positive post-announcement cumulative ARs (CARs) for target firm shareholders under both the OLS and GJR-GARCH methods across all three methodologies. However, post-event CARs for acquiring firm shareholders were insignificant for both sets of estimation methods under the three methodologies. The GJR-GARCH method seems to generate larger CARs than those of the OLS method. Using both market capitalization and trading volume as a measure of liquidity and the size of the firm, we observed strong return continuations in the medium firms relative to small and large firms for target shareholders. We consistently observed market efficiency in small and large firm. This implies that target firms for small and large firms overreact to new information resulting in a more efficient market. For acquirer firms, our measure of liquidity captures strong return continuations for small firms under the OLS estimates for both CAPM and Fama-French three-factor models, whilst under the GJR-GARCH estimates only for Carhart model. Post-announcement bootstrapping simulated CARs confirmed our earlier results.