How unlucky is 25-sigma?

Purpose - To identify the likelihood of a 25-standard deviation occurring in stock prices over several successive days, in the light of comments by David Viniar, chief financial officer of Goldman Sachs.. Design/methodology/approach - Assumes a bell-curve of market losses and graphs the probability of an event relative to the number of deviations. Calculates using MATLAB for sigmas over 7. Considers whether the losses of US investment banks in 2008 were the result of bad luck or of incompetence. Findings - Finds that the probability of a 25-sigma event is every 100,000 +130 decimal points years. Practical implications - Argues that bad luck is usually associated with incompetence, and investors need not choose between them. Originality/value - Presents the mathematical absurdity of a finance officer's statement, and its implications.

Regional variability in visual field sensitivity during hypercapnia

PURPOSE: Previous investigations have demonstrated a relative vascular autoregulatory inefficiency of the inferior compared to the superior retina in healthy subjects breathing increased CO2. The purpose of this study was to determine whether the superior and inferior visual field sensitivities of healthy eyes are similarly affected during mild hypercapnia. DESIGN: Experimental study. METHODS: Visual field analysis (Humphrey Field Analyser; SITA standard 24-2 program) was carried out on one randomly selected eye of 22 subjects (mean age, 27.7 ± 5 years) during normal room air breathing and isoxic hypercapnia. The Student paired t-tests were used to compare the visual field indices mean deviation (MD) and pattern standard deviation (PSD) for each breathing condition. A secondary, sectoral analysis of mean pointwise sensitivity was performed for each condition. In each case a P value of <.01 was considered statistically significant (Bonferroni corrected). RESULTS: Visual field MD was -0.23 ± 0.95dB during room air breathing and -0.49 ± 1.04dB during hypercapnia (P = .034). Sectoral pointwise mean sensitivity deteriorated by 0.46dB (P = .006) in the upper visual hemifield during hypercapnia, whereas no significant difference was observed for the lower hemifield (P = .331). CONCLUSIONS: The upper visual hemifield exhibited a significantly greater degree of deterioration in pointwise visual field mean sensitivity compared to the lower hemifield during hypercapnic conditions. This suggests that the upper visual hemifield and hence inferior retina is more susceptible to insult during hypercapnia than the superior retina in healthy individuals. A regional susceptibility of inferior retinal function to altered vascular or metabolic effects may account for the earlier and more frequent inferior nerve fibre damage associated with glaucomatous optic neuropathy. © 2003 by Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of hemifield sector analysis protocol in multifocal visual evoked potential objective perimetry for the diagnosis and early detection of glaucomatous field defects

CONCLUSIONS: The new HSA protocol used in the mfVEP testing can be applied to detect glaucomatous visual field defects in both glaucoma and glaucoma suspect patients. Using this protocol can provide information about focal visual field differences across the horizontal midline, which can be utilized to differentiate between glaucoma and normal subjects. Sensitivity and specificity of the mfVEP test showed very promising results and correlated with other anatomical changes in glaucoma field loss. PURPOSE: Multifocal visual evoked potential (mfVEP) is a newly introduced method used for objective visual field assessment. Several analysis protocols have been tested to identify early visual field losses in glaucoma patients using the mfVEP technique, some were successful in detection of field defects, which were comparable to the standard automated perimetry (SAP) visual field assessment, and others were not very informative and needed more adjustment and research work. In this study we implemented a novel analysis approach and evaluated its validity and whether it could be used effectively for early detection of visual field defects in glaucoma. METHODS: Three groups were tested in this study; normal controls (38 eyes), glaucoma patients (36 eyes) and glaucoma suspect patients (38 eyes). All subjects had a two standard Humphrey field analyzer (HFA) test 24-2 and a single mfVEP test undertaken in one session. Analysis of the mfVEP results was done using the new analysis protocol; the hemifield sector analysis (HSA) protocol. Analysis of the HFA was done using the standard grading system. RESULTS: Analysis of mfVEP results showed that there was a statistically significant difference between the three groups in the mean signal to noise ratio (ANOVA test, p < 0.001 with a 95% confidence interval). The difference between superior and inferior hemispheres in all subjects were statistically significant in the glaucoma patient group in all 11 sectors (t-test, p < 0.001), partially significant in 5 / 11 (t-test, p < 0.01), and no statistical difference in most sectors of the normal group (1 / 11 sectors was significant, t-test, p < 0.9). Sensitivity and specificity of the HSA protocol in detecting glaucoma was 97% and 86%, respectively, and for glaucoma suspect patients the values were 89% and 79%, respectively.

The benefit of combining standard automated perimetry and multifocal visual evoked potential hemifield intersector analysis in suspecious glaucomatous visual field defects

Several analysis protocols have been tested to identify early visual field losses in glaucoma patients using the mfVEP technique, some were successful in detection of field defects, which were comparable to the standard SAP visual field assessment, and others were not very informative and needed more adjustment and research work. In this study we implemented a novel analysis approach and evaluated its validity and whether it could be used effectively for early detection of visual field defects in glaucoma. The purpose of this study is to examine the benefit of adding mfVEP hemifield Intersector analysis protocol to the standard HFA test when there is suspicious glaucomatous visual field loss. 3 groups were tested in this study; normal controls (38 eyes), glaucoma patients (36 eyes) and glaucoma suspect patients (38 eyes). All subjects had a two standard Humphrey visual field HFA test 24-2, optical coherence tomography of the optic nerve head, and a single mfVEP test undertaken in one session. Analysis of the mfVEP results was done using the new analysis protocol; the Hemifield Sector Analysis HSA protocol. The retinal nerve fibre (RNFL) thickness was recorded to identify subjects with suspicious RNFL loss. The hemifield Intersector analysis of mfVEP results showed that signal to noise ratio (SNR) difference between superior and inferior hemifields was statistically significant between the 3 groups (ANOVA p<0.001 with a 95% CI). The difference between superior and inferior hemispheres in all subjects were all statistically significant in the glaucoma patient group 11/11 sectors (t-test p<0.001), partially significant 5/11 in glaucoma suspect group (t-test p<0.01) and no statistical difference between most sectors in normal group (only 1/11 was significant) (t-test p<0.9). Sensitivity and specificity of the HSA protocol in detecting glaucoma was 97% and 86% respectively, while for glaucoma suspect were 89% and 79%. The use of SAP and mfVEP results in subjects with suspicious glaucomatous visual field defects, identified by low RNFL thickness, is beneficial in confirming early visual field defects. The new HSA protocol used in the mfVEP testing can be used to detect glaucomatous visual field defects in both glaucoma and glaucoma suspect patient. Using this protocol in addition to SAP analysis can provide information about focal visual field differences across the horizontal midline, and confirm suspicious field defects. Sensitivity and specificity of the mfVEP test showed very promising results and correlated with other anatomical changes in glaucoma field loss. The Intersector analysis protocol can detect early field changes not detected by standard HFA test.

The tuberous sclerosis 2000 study:presentation initial assessments and implications for diagnosis and management

Aims: The Tuberous Sclerosis 2000 Study is the first comprehensive longitudinal study of tuberous sclerosis (TS) and aims to identify factors that determine prognosis. Mode of presentation and findings at initial assessments are reported here. Methods: Children aged 0-16 years newly diagnosed with TS in the UK were evaluated. Results: 125 children with TS were studied. 114 (91%) met clinical criteria for a definite diagnosis and the remaining 11 (9%) had pathogenic TSC1 or TSC2 mutations. In families with a definite clinical diagnosis, the detection rate for pathogenic mutations was 89%. 21 cases (17%) were identified prenatally, usually with abnormalities found at routine antenatal ultrasound examination. 30 cases (24%) presented before developing seizures and in 10 of these without a definite diagnosis at onset of seizures, genetic testing could have confirmed TS. 77 cases (62%) presented with seizures. Median age at recruitment assessment was 2.7 years (range:4 weeks-18 years). Dermatological features of TS were present in 81%. The detection rate of TS abnormalities was 20/107 (19%) for renal ultrasound including three cases with polycystic kidney disease, 51/88 (58%) for echocardiography, 29/35 (83%) for cranial CT and 95/104 (91%) for cranial MRI. 91% of cases had epilepsy and 65% had intellectual disability (IQ<70). Conclusions: Genetic testing can be valuable in confirming the diagnosis. Increasing numbers of cases present prenatally or in early infancy, before onset of seizures, raising important questions about whether these children should have EEG monitoring and concerning the criteria for starting anticonvulsant therapy.

The paradoxes of risk management in the banking sector

This paper uses empirical evidence to examine the operational dynamics and paradoxical nature of risk management systems in the banking sector. It demonstrates how a core paradox of market versus regulatory demands and an accompanying variety of performance, learning and belonging paradoxes underlie evident tensions in the interaction between front and back office staff in banks. Organisational responses to such paradoxes are found to range from passive to proactive, reflecting differing organisational, departmental and individual risk culture(s), and performance management systems. Nonetheless, a common feature of regulatory initiatives designed to secure a more structurally independent risk management function is that they have failed to rectify a critical imbalance of power - with the back office control functions continuing to be dominated by front office trading and investment functions. Ultimately, viewing the 'core' of risk management systems as a series of connected paradoxes rather than a set of assured, robust practices, requires a fundamental switch in emphasis away from a normative, standards-based approach to risk management to one which gives greater recognition to its behavioural dimensions.