The use of expert systems for decision making in organizations

The research described in this thesis investigates three issues related to the use of expert systems for decision making in organizations. These are the effectiveness of ESs when used in different roles, to replace a human decision maker or to advise a human decision maker, the users' behaviourand opinions towards using an expertadvisory system and, the possibility of organization-wide deployment of expert systems and the role of an ES in different organizational levels. The research was based on the development of expert systems within a business game environment, a simulation of a manufacturing company. This was chosen to give more control over the `experiments' than would be possible in a real organization. An expert system (EXGAME) was developed based on a structure derived from Anthony's three levels of decision making to manage the simulated company in the business game itself with little user intervention. On the basis of EXGAME, an expert advisory system (ADGAME) was built to help game players to make better decisions in managing the game company. EXGAME and ADGAME are thus two expert systems in the same domain performing different roles; it was found that ADGAME had, in places, to be different from EXGAME, not simply an extension of it. EXGAME was tested several times against human rivals and was evaluated by measuring its performance. ADGAME was also tested by different users and was assessed by measuring the users' performance and analysing their opinions towards it as a helpful decision making aid. The results showed that an expert system was able to replace a human at the operational level, but had difficulty at the strategic level. It also showed the success of the organization-wide deployment of expert systems in this simulated company.

Expert system design for cold form sections

The concept of an Expert System (ES) has been acknowledged as a very useful tool, but few studies have been carried out in its application to the design of cold rolled sections. This study involves primarily the use of an ES as a tool to improve the design process and to capture the draughtsman's knowledge. Its main purpose is to reduce substantially the time taken to produce a section drawing, thereby facilitating a speedy feedback to the customer. In order to communicate with a draughtsman, it is necessary to use sketches, symbolic representations and numerical data. This increases the complexity of programming an ES, as it is necessary to use a combination of languages so that decisions, calculations, graphical drawings and control of the system can be effected. A production system approach is used and a further step has been taken by introducing an Activator which is an autoexecute operation set up by the ES to operate an external program automatically. To speed up the absorption of new knowledge into the knowledge base, a new Learning System has been constructed. In addition to developing the ES, other software has been written to assist the design process. The section properties software has been introduced to improve the speed and consistency of calculating the section properties. A method of selecting or comparing the most appropriate section for a given specification is also implemented. Simple loading facilities have been introduced to guide the designer as to the loading capacity of the section. This research has concluded that the application of an ES is beneficial and with the activator approach, automated designing can be achieved. On average a complex drawing can be displayed on the screen in about 100 seconds, where over 95% of the initial section design time for repetitive or similar profile can be saved.

The application of knowledge based expert systems to mechanical engineering design

Investigation of the different approaches used by Expert Systems researchers to solve problems in the domain of Mechanical Design and Expert Systems was carried out. The techniques used for conventional formal logic programming were compared with those used when applying Expert Systems concepts. A literature survey of design processes was also conducted with a view to adopting a suitable model of the design process. A model, comprising a variation on two established ones, was developed and applied to a problem within what are described as class 3 design tasks. The research explored the application of these concepts to Mechanical Engineering Design problems and their implementation on a microcomputer using an Expert System building tool. It was necessary to explore the use of Expert Systems in this manner so as to bridge the gap between their use as a control structure and for detailed analytical design. The former application is well researched into and this thesis discusses the latter. Some Expert System building tools available to the author at the beginning of his work were evaluated specifically for their suitability for Mechanical Engineering design problems. Microsynics was found to be the most suitable on which to implement a design problem because of its simple but powerful Semantic Net Knowledge Representation structure and the ability to use other types of representation schemes. Two major implementations were carried out. The first involved a design program for a Helical compression spring and the second a gearpair system design. Two concepts were proposed in the thesis for the modelling and implementation of design systems involving many equations. The method proposed enables equation manipulation and analysis using a combination of frames, semantic nets and production rules. The use of semantic nets for purposes other than for psychology and natural language interpretation, is quite new and represents one of the major contributions to knowledge by the author. The development of a purpose built shell program for this type of design problems was recommended as an extension of the research. Microsynics may usefully be used as a platform for this development.

The application of expert systems techniques in the design of durable concrete

This thesis describes work done exploring the application of expert system techniques to the domain of designing durable concrete. The nature of concrete durability design is described and some problems from the domain are discussed. Some related work on expert systems in concrete durability are described. Various implementation languages are considered - PROLOG and OPS5, and rejected in favour of a shell - CRYSTAL3 (later CRYSTAL4). Criteria for useful expert system shells in the domain are discussed. CRYSTAL4 is evaluated in the light of these criteria. Modules in various sub-domains (mix-design, sulphate attack, steel-corrosion and alkali aggregate reaction) are developed and organised under a BLACKBOARD system (called DEX). Extensions to the CRYSTAL4 modules are considered for different knowledge representations. These include LOTUS123 spreadsheets implementing models incorporating some of the mathematical knowledge in the domain. Design databases are used to represent tabular design knowledge. Hypertext representations of the original building standards texts are proposed as a tool for providing a well structured and extensive justification/help facility. A standardised approach to module development is proposed using hypertext development as a structured basis for expert systems development. Some areas of deficient domain knowledge are highlighted particularly in the use of data from mathematical models and in gaps and inconsistencies in the original knowledge source Digests.

METEX: An expert system for metamorphic petrography

Classification of metamorphic rocks is normally carried out using a poorly defined, subjective classification scheme making this an area in which many undergraduate geologists experience difficulties. An expert system to assist in such classification is presented which is capable of classifying rocks and also giving further details about a particular rock type. A mixed knowledge representation is used with frame, semantic and production rule systems available. Classification in the domain requires that different facets of a rock be classified. To implement this, rocks are represented by 'context' frames with slots representing each facet. Slots are satisfied by calling a pre-defined ruleset to carry out the necessary inference. The inference is handled by an interpreter which uses a dependency graph representation for the propagation of evidence. Uncertainty is handled by the system using a combination of the MYCIN certainty factor system and the Dempster-Shafer range mechanism. This allows for positive and negative reasoning, with rules capable of representing necessity and sufficiency of evidence, whilst also allowing the implementation of an alpha-beta pruning algorithm to guide question selection during inference. The system also utilizes a semantic net type structure to allow the expert to encode simple relationships between terms enabling rules to be written with a sensible level of abstraction. Using frames to represent rock types where subclassification is possible allows the knowledge base to be built in a modular fashion with subclassification frames only defined once the higher level of classification is functioning. Rulesets can similarly be added in modular fashion with the individual rules being essentially declarative allowing for simple updating and maintenance. The knowledge base so far developed for metamorphic classification serves to demonstrate the performance of the interpreter design whilst also moving some way towards providing a useful assistant to the non-expert metamorphic petrologist. The system demonstrates the possibilities for a fully developed knowledge base to handle the classification of igneous, sedimentary and metamorphic rocks. The current knowledge base and interpreter have been evaluated by potential users and experts. The results of the evaluation show that the system performs to an acceptable level and should be of use as a tool for both undergraduates and researchers from outside the metamorphic petrography field. .

The use of expert manpower in health and safety in France

The thesis examines the system of occupational health and safety in France. It analyses the use of expert manpower in the field with a view to establishing the possibility of a profession in health and safety. An input-output model is developed to bring together the necessary elements of prevention of accidents and occupational diseases. The role of institutions concerned with health and safety is analysed with reference to this model. The research establishes the need for a health and safety specialist role. The recognition and status of this role are found to be subject to other criteria including the acceptance by institutions of such a specialist role. The model is also used to define the role of this specialist as expected by the various institutions intervening in the field.

Fish farm effluent control and the development of an expert system

In recent years, freshwater fish farmers have come under increasing pressure from the Water Authorities to control the quality of their farm effluents. This project aimed to investigate methods of treating aquacultural effluent in an efficient and cost-effective manner, and to incorporate the knowledge gained into an Expert System which could then be used in an advice service to farmers. From the results of this research it was established that sedimentation and the use of low pollution diets are the only cost effective methods of controlling the quality of fish farm effluents. Settlement has been extensively investigated and it was found that the removal of suspended solids in a settlement pond is only likely to be effective if the inlet solids concentration is in excess of 8 mg/litre. The probability of good settlement can be enhanced by keeping the ratio of length/retention time (a form of mean fluid velocity) below 4.0 metres/minute. The removal of BOD requires inlet solids concentrations in excess of 20 mg/litre to be effective, and this is seldom attained on commercial fish farms. Settlement, generally, does not remove appreciable quantities of ammonia from effluents, but algae can absorb ammonia by nutrient uptake under certain conditions. The use of low pollution, high performance diets gives pollutant yields which are low when compared with published figures obtained by many previous workers. Two Expert Systems were constructed, both of which diagnose possible causes of poor effluent quality on fish farms and suggest solutions. The first system uses knowledge gained from a literature review and the second employs the knowledge obtained from this project's experimental work. Consent details for over 100 fish farms were obtained from the public registers kept by the Water Authorities. Large variations in policy from one Authority to the next were found. These data have been compiled in a computer file for ease of comparison.

An approach to the development of expert systems within production planning and control

The thesis presents an account of an attempt to utilize expert systems within the domain of production planning and control. The use of expert systems was proposed due to the problematical nature of a particular function within British Steel Strip Products' Operations Department: the function of Order Allocation, allocating customer orders to a production week and site. Approaches to tackling problems within production planning and control are reviewed, as are the general capabilities of expert systems. The conclusions drawn are that the domain of production planning and control contains both `soft' and `hard' problems, and that while expert systems appear to be a useful technology for this domain, this usefulness has by no means yet been demonstrated. Also, it is argued that the main stream methodology for developing expert systems is unsuited for the domain. A problem-driven approach is developed and used to tackle the Order Allocation function. The resulting system, UAAMS, contained two expert components. One of these, the scheduling procedure was not fully implemented due to inadequate software. The second expert component, the product routing procedure, was untroubled by such difficulties, though it was unusable on its own; thus a second system was developed. This system, MICRO-X10, duplicated the function of X10, a complex database query routine used daily by Order Allocation. A prototype version of MICRO-X10 proved too slow to be useful but allowed implementation and maintenance issues to be analysed. In conclusion, the usefulness of the problem-driven approach to expert systems development within production planning and control is demonstrated but restrictions imposed by current expert system software are highlighted in that the abilities of such software to cope with `hard' scheduling constructs and also the slow processing speeds of such software can restrict the current usefulness of expert systems within production planning and control.

The development of an expert system for the identification anodic coating process defects as a contribution to the dissemination of anodizing technology

Initially this thesis examines the various mechanisms by which technology is acquired within anodizing plants. In so doing the history of the evolution of anodizing technology is recorded, with particular reference to the growth of major markets and to the contribution of the marketing efforts of the aluminium industry. The business economics of various types of anodizing plants are analyzed. Consideration is also given to the impact of developments in anodizing technology on production economics and market growth. The economic costs associated with work rejected for process defects are considered. Recent changes in the industry have created conditions whereby information technology has a potentially important role to play in retaining existing knowledge. One such contribution is exemplified by the expert system which has been developed for the identification of anodizing process defects. Instead of using a "rule-based" expert system, a commercial neural networks program has been adapted for the task. The advantages of neural networks over 'rule-based' systems is that they are better suited to production problems, since the actual conditions prevailing when the defect was produced are often not known with certainty. In using the expert system, the user first identifies the process stage at which the defect probably occurred and is then directed to a file enabling the actual defects to be identified. After making this identification, the user can consult a database which gives a more detailed description of the defect, advises on remedial action and provides a bibliography of papers relating to the defect. The database uses a proprietary hypertext program, which also provides rapid cross-referencing to similar types of defect. Additionally, a graphics file can be accessed which (where appropriate) will display a graphic of the defect on screen. A total of 117 defects are included, together with 221 literature references, supplemented by 48 cross-reference hyperlinks. The main text of the thesis contains 179 literature references. (DX186565)

Cues to deception in a textual narrative context:lying in written witness statements

Little research has been undertaken into high stakes deception, and even less into high stakes deception in written text. This study addresses that gap. In this thesis, I present a new approach to detecting deception in written narratives based on the definition of deception as a progression and focusing on identifying deceptive linguistic strategy rather than individual cues. I propose a new approach for subdividing whole narratives into their constituent episodes, each of which is linguistically profiled and their progression mapped to identify authors’ deceptive strategies based on cue interaction. I conduct a double blind study using qualitative and quantitative analysis in which linguistic strategy (cue interaction and progression) and overall cue presence are used to predict deception in witness statements. This results in linguistic strategy analysis correctly predicting 85% of deceptive statements (92% overall) compared to 54% (64% overall) with cues identified on a whole statement basis. These results suggest that deception cues are not static, and that the value of individual cues as deception predictors is linked to their interaction with other cues. Results also indicate that in certain cue combinations, individual self-references (I, Me and My), previously believed to be indicators of truthfulness, are effective predictors of deceptive linguistic strategy at work

An analysis of users' reactions to an expert advisory system

Ignorance of user factors can be seen as one of the nontechnical issues contributing to expert system failure. An expert advisory system is built for nonexpert users; the users' acceptance is a very important factor for its successful implementation. If an expert advisory system satisfactorily represents the expertise in the domain, there still remains the question: "Will the end-users use the system?" This paper aims to address users' issues by analysing their reactions towards an expert advisory system called ADGAME, developed to help its users make better decisions in playing a competitive business game. Two experiments with ADGAME have been carried out. The research results show that, when the use of the expert advisory system is optional, there is considerable reluctance to use it, particularly amongst the "worst" potential users. Users also doubt the potential benefits in terms of improved learning and confidence in decisions made. Strangely, the one positive expectation that users had, that the system would save them time, proved not to be the case in practice; ADGAME appears to improve the users' effectiveness rather than their efficiency. © 1995.

Editorial

This time of year we look back at the year that has passed and make plans for the next year. I like to reflect on things that I have learnt and people that I have met, especially those who facilitated that learning. In 2009 I went to various conferences, The BCLA conference in Manchester, The Romanian Optical Society meeting in Brasov, Transylvania (where the university is actually on Vlad Tepes Street), The European Council for Optometry and Optics (ECOO) in Brno, Czech Republic, The American Academy of Optometry (AAO) in Orlando USA, The International Association of Contact Lens Educators (IACLE) meeting in Tianjin China and finally The Vereinigung Deutscher Contactlinsen-Spezialisten (VDCO) meeting in Jena. All were interesting places and thoroughly all were enjoyable conferences with their own highlights but I wanted to focus on Jena and one person I met there and his inspirational search for knowledge and the contributions he made in the field of contact lenses. Jena itself is a fascinating place and should be on the ‘must visit’ list of anyone involved in eye care. It is the birth place of Carl Zeiss of course and where he started his company. It is also the birth place of Ernst Abbe (physicist and optometrist and expert lens maker), and Otto Schott (chemist and technologist who made high quality glass. There are many road signs bearing witness to these famous pioneers. The optical museum is worth spending a few hours looking around too. I was invited to speak at the VDCO at the kind invitation from colleagues at the Jena School of Optometry, Professor Wolfgang Sickenberger and Professor Sebastian Marx. At this meeting I met 87-year-old Willi KAUE who was being awarded the Adolf Wilhelm Müller-Welt prize by the VDCO for contribution to contact lenses over his 60-year career. At the age of 15 Willi Kaue took up an apprenticeship to become an Optician in Germany in 1937. At this time he first heard about the scleral glass lenses made by the Carl Zeiss Company in Jena. This started his lifelong fascination which was to become his passion but not yet his career. During the war he was enlisted into military service but immediately after was back to his former career. In 1950 Willi corrected his own 3.5 dioptres of myopia with a plastic scleral lens. His fascination strengthened as for the first time he himself could experience a wider field of view than his spectacles gave him, less aberrations and less retinal minification. He also appreciated the fact that contact lenses did not cause pressure on the nose or ears and did not slide down his nose plus remained optically centred with his eye movements. He decided that form now on he would make fitting contact lenses his career. He travelled to London to learn more about contact lenses and how to fit them but initially did not find many willing teachers and to start with became largely self-taught. He wanted to know how to make scleral lenses. So far he only knew that pulverized polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA) was pressed and moulded. In 1951 he met Berlin optician Otto Marzock. He made his only scleral lenses from using military PMMA windshields. His process involved lathe cutting the lenses and resulted in lenses that were thinner than moulded ones. Willi developed a manufacturing method, using a rotary diamond drill, starting form the outer edge and towards the centre at a constant cut speed. This enabled him to make more reproducible lenses and in less time. His enthusiasm in the field was clear from the travels he made in the pursuit of advancement - travelling around Europe, South America, North America and Asia. In 1963 he visited George Nissel in Hemel Hempstead, England. Constantly thriving towards innovations Willi came across the new Naturalens from the USA made from HEMA at a congress in Marseille in 1969. Amongst his contributions to the field, was his own technique of fitting ocular prosthetics, using an alginate impression of the orbit. I was fortunate enough to have dinner with Willi Kaue and learnt more about his fascinating career through the patient interpreting skills of Hilmar Bussacker (the 2008 winner of the same award and the 2007 winner of the European Federation of the Contact Lens and IOL Industries Award). I look forward to 2010 with eager anticipation as to what I may learn and who I might meet!!! Copyright © 2009 British Contact Lens Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Expert report writing in toxicology:forensic, scientific and legal aspects

Every year throughout the world, individuals' health is damaged by their exposure to toxic chemicals at work. In most cases these problems will resolve, but many will sustain permanent damage. Whilst any justified claim for compensation requires medical and legal evidence a crucial and often controversial component of this process is the establishment of a causal link between the individual's condition and exposure to a specific chemical or substance. Causation, in terms of how a substance or substances led the claimant to his or her current plight, can be difficult to establish and the main purpose of this book, is to provide the aspiring expert report writer with a concise, practical guide that uses case histories to illuminate the process of establishing causation in occupational toxicity proceedings. In summary: A practical, accessible guide to the preparation of balanced, scientifically sound expert reports in the context of occupational toxicology. Focuses on the scientist's role in establishing a causal link between exposure to toxins and an individual's ill health. Includes real-life case histories drawn from the Author's 15 years experience in this area to illustrate the principles involved. Expert Report Writing in Toxicology: Forensic, Scientific and Legal Aspects proves invaluable to scientists across a range of disciplines needing guidance as to what is expected of them in terms of the best use of their expertise and how to present their findings in a manner that is authoritative, balanced and informative.