22 resultados para Dynamic Model Averaging
Resumo:
The amplification of demand variation up a supply chain widely termed ‘the Bullwhip Effect’ is disruptive, costly and something that supply chain management generally seeks to minimise. Originally attributed to poor system design; deficiencies in policies, organisation structure and delays in material and information flow all lead to sub-optimal reorder point calculation. It has since been attributed to exogenous random factors such as: uncertainties in demand, supply and distribution lead time but these causes are not exclusive as academic and operational studies since have shown that orders and/or inventories can exhibit significant variability even if customer demand and lead time are deterministic. This increase in the range of possible causes of dynamic behaviour indicates that our understanding of the phenomenon is far from complete. One possible, yet previously unexplored, factor that may influence dynamic behaviour in supply chains is the application and operation of supply chain performance measures. Organisations monitoring and responding to their adopted key performance metrics will make operational changes and this action may influence the level of dynamics within the supply chain, possibly degrading the performance of the very system they were intended to measure. In order to explore this a plausible abstraction of the operational responses to the Supply Chain Council’s SCOR® (Supply Chain Operations Reference) model was incorporated into a classic Beer Game distribution representation, using the dynamic discrete event simulation software Simul8. During the simulation the five SCOR Supply Chain Performance Attributes: Reliability, Responsiveness, Flexibility, Cost and Utilisation were continuously monitored and compared to established targets. Operational adjustments to the; reorder point, transportation modes and production capacity (where appropriate) for three independent supply chain roles were made and the degree of dynamic behaviour in the Supply Chain measured, using the ratio of the standard deviation of upstream demand relative to the standard deviation of the downstream demand. Factors employed to build the detailed model include: variable retail demand, order transmission, transportation delays, production delays, capacity constraints demand multipliers and demand averaging periods. Five dimensions of supply chain performance were monitored independently in three autonomous supply chain roles and operational settings adjusted accordingly. Uniqueness of this research stems from the application of the five SCOR performance attributes with modelled operational responses in a dynamic discrete event simulation model. This project makes its primary contribution to knowledge by measuring the impact, on supply chain dynamics, of applying a representative performance measurement system.
Resumo:
Constructing and executing distributed systems that can adapt to their operating context in order to sustain provided services and the service qualities are complex tasks. Managing adaptation of multiple, interacting services is particularly difficult since these services tend to be distributed across the system, interdependent and sometimes tangled with other services. Furthermore, the exponential growth of the number of potential system configurations derived from the variabilities of each service need to be handled. Current practices of writing low-level reconfiguration scripts as part of the system code to handle run time adaptation are both error prone and time consuming and make adaptive systems difficult to validate and evolve. In this paper, we propose to combine model driven and aspect oriented techniques to better cope with the complexities of adaptive systems construction and execution, and to handle the problem of exponential growth of the number of possible configurations. Combining these techniques allows us to use high level domain abstractions, simplify the representation of variants and limit the problem pertaining to the combinatorial explosion of possible configurations. In our approach we also use models at runtime to generate the adaptation logic by comparing the current configuration of the system to a composed model representing the configuration we want to reach. © 2008 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
Resumo:
Dynamic supply chain alignment: a new business model for peak performance in enterprise supply chains across all geographies John Gattorna and friends, Farnham, Gower Publishing, 2009, 440pp., £60, ISBN 978-0-566-08822-3.
Resumo:
Social media data are produced continuously by a large and uncontrolled number of users. The dynamic nature of such data requires the sentiment and topic analysis model to be also dynamically updated, capturing the most recent language use of sentiments and topics in text. We propose a dynamic Joint Sentiment-Topic model (dJST) which allows the detection and tracking of views of current and recurrent interests and shifts in topic and sentiment. Both topic and sentiment dynamics are captured by assuming that the current sentiment-topic-specific word distributions are generated according to the word distributions at previous epochs. We study three different ways of accounting for such dependency information: (1) Sliding window where the current sentiment-topic word distributions are dependent on the previous sentiment-topic-specific word distributions in the last S epochs; (2) skip model where history sentiment topic word distributions are considered by skipping some epochs in between; and (3) multiscale model where previous long- and shorttimescale distributions are taken into consideration. We derive efficient online inference procedures to sequentially update the model with newly arrived data and show the effectiveness of our proposed model on the Mozilla add-on reviews crawled between 2007 and 2011. © 2013 ACM 2157-6904/2013/12-ART5 $ 15.00.
Resumo:
This paper presents a new, dynamic feature representation method for high value parts consisting of complex and intersecting features. The method first extracts features from the CAD model of a complex part. Then the dynamic status of each feature is established between various operations to be carried out during the whole manufacturing process. Each manufacturing and verification operation can be planned and optimized using the real conditions of a feature, thus enhancing accuracy, traceability and process control. The dynamic feature representation is complementary to the design models used as underlining basis in current CAD/CAM and decision support systems. © 2012 CIRP.