Mixture density networks

Minimization of a sum-of-squares or cross-entropy error function leads to network outputs which approximate the conditional averages of the target data, conditioned on the input vector. For classifications problems, with a suitably chosen target coding scheme, these averages represent the posterior probabilities of class membership, and so can be regarded as optimal. For problems involving the prediction of continuous variables, however, the conditional averages provide only a very limited description of the properties of the target variables. This is particularly true for problems in which the mapping to be learned is multi-valued, as often arises in the solution of inverse problems, since the average of several correct target values is not necessarily itself a correct value. In order to obtain a complete description of the data, for the purposes of predicting the outputs corresponding to new input vectors, we must model the conditional probability distribution of the target data, again conditioned on the input vector. In this paper we introduce a new class of network models obtained by combining a conventional neural network with a mixture density model. The complete system is called a Mixture Density Network, and can in principle represent arbitrary conditional probability distributions in the same way that a conventional neural network can represent arbitrary functions. We demonstrate the effectiveness of Mixture Density Networks using both a toy problem and a problem involving robot inverse kinematics.

Probability distribution modelling to improve stability in nonlinear MIMO control

We consider the direct adaptive inverse control of nonlinear multivariable systems with different delays between every input-output pair. In direct adaptive inverse control, the inverse mapping is learned from examples of input-output pairs. This makes the obtained controller sub optimal, since the network may have to learn the response of the plant over a larger operational range than necessary. Moreover, in certain applications, the control problem can be redundant, implying that the inverse problem is ill posed. In this paper we propose a new algorithm which allows estimating and exploiting uncertainty in nonlinear multivariable control systems. This approach allows us to model strongly non-Gaussian distribution of control signals as well as processes with hysteresis. The proposed algorithm circumvents the dynamic programming problem by using the predicted neural network uncertainty to localise the possible control solutions to consider.

Caffeine, cognition, and persuasion:evidence for caffeine increasing the systematic processing of persuasive messages

Caffeine is known to increase arousal, attention, and information processing–all factors implicated in facilitating persuasion. In a standard attitude-change paradigm, participants consumed an orange-juice drink that either contained caffeine (3.5 mg/kg body weight) or did not (placebo) prior to reading a counterattitudinal communication (anti-voluntary euthanasia). Participants then completed a thought-listing task and a number of attitude scales. The first experiment showed that those who consumed caffeine showed greater agreement with the communication (direct attitude: voluntary euthanasia) and on an issue related to, but not contained in, the communication (indirect attitude: abortion). The order in which direct and indirect attitudes were measured did not affect the results. A second experiment manipulated the quality of the arguments in the message (strong vs. weak) to determine whether systematic processing had occurred. There was evidence that systematic processing occurred in both drink conditions, but was greater for those who had consumed caffeine. In both experiments, the amount of message-congruent thinking mediated persuasion. These results show that caffeine can increase the extent to which people systematically process and arc influenced by a persuasive communication.

Strategic planning and performance:extending the debate

This article extends the debate regarding the relationship between strategic planning and performance. It addresses criticism of previous empirical studies that have largely investigated direct and bi-variate relationships, producing equivocal results. The current study investigates the mediating effects of four types of flexibility on the strategic planning and performance relationship. Flexibility is defined as the extent to which new and alternative decisions are generated and considered in strategic planning, allowing for positive organizational change and adaptation to environmental turbulence. Through investigating simultaneous equations in a structural equation model, we find that two types of flexibility mediate the relationship between strategic planning and financial performance, while the other two types mediate the relationship between strategic planning and non-financial performance. The results are new empirical insights that have not been previously reported.

Consumer brand equity : a model for the measurement, analysis and evaluation of consumer perceived value

The topic of my research is consumer brand equity (CBE). My thesis is that the success or otherwise of a brand is better viewed from the consumers’ perspective. I specifically focus on consumers as a unique group of stakeholders whose involvement with brands is crucial to the overall success of branding strategy. To this end, this research examines the constellation of ideas on brand equity that have hitherto been offered by various scholars. Through a systematic integration of the concepts and practices identified but these scholars (concepts and practices such as: competitiveness, consumer searching, consumer behaviour, brand image, brand relevance, consumer perceived value, etc.), this research identifies CBE as a construct that is shaped, directed and made valuable by the beliefs, attitudes and the subjective preferences of consumers. This is done by examining the criteria on the basis of which the consumers evaluate brands and make brand purchase decisions. Understanding the criteria by which consumers evaluate brands is crucial for several reasons. First, as the basis upon which consumers select brands changes with consumption norms and technology, understanding the consumer choice process will help in formulating branding strategy. Secondly, an understanding of these criteria will help in formulating a creative and innovative agenda for ‘new brand’ propositions. Thirdly, it will also influence firms’ ability to simulate and mould the plasticity of demand for existing brands. In examining these three issues, this thesis presents a comprehensive account of CBE. This is because the first issue raised in the preceding paragraph deals with the content of CBE. The second issue addresses the problem of how to develop a reliable and valid measuring instrument for CBE. The third issue examines the structural and statistical relationships between the factors of CBE and the consequences of CBE on consumer perceived value (CPV). Using LISREL-SIMPLIS 8.30, the study finds direct and significant influential links between consumer brand equity and consumer value perception.

Effect of pulsed current on the electrodeposition of chromium and copper

This research was concerned with the effects of pulsed current on the electrodeposition of chromium and copper. In the case of the latter metal, a novel application has been studied and a theory proposed for the ability to improve throwing power by the joint use of organic additives and pulsed reverse current. During the course of the research, several improvements were made to the pulse plating unit.Chromium. A study was made of the effect of square wave pulsed current on various physical properties of deposits from three hard chromium plating electrolytes. The effect of varying frequency at a duty cycle of 50% on the mean bulk internal stress, visual appearance, hardness, crack characteristics and surface topography of the electrodeposits was determined. X-ray diffraction techniques were used to study the phases present in the deposits. The effect of varying frequency on the cathodic efficiencies of the electrolytes was also determined. It was found that pulsed current reduced the internal stress of deposits from the sulphate catalysed electrolyte. It also reduced or eliminated cracking of deposits and reduced deposit brightness. Under certain conditions, pulsed current was found to induce the co-deposition of hydrides of chromium. Deposit hardness was found to be reduced by the use of pulsed current. Cathodic efficiencies of the high efficiency electrolytes were reduced by use of pulsed current although this effect was minimised at high frequencies. The sulphate catalysed electrolyte showed an increase in efficiency over the frequency range where hydrides were co-deposited.Copper. The polarisation behaviour of acid copper solutions containing polyethers, sulphopropyl sulphides and chloride ions was studied using both direct and pulse reverse current. The effect of these additives on the rest potentials of copper deposits immersed in the electrolyte was also studied. Hole Throwing Power on printed circuit boards was determined using a specially designed test cell. The effect of pulsed reverse current on the hole throwing power of commercially produced printed circuit boards was also studied. Polyethers were found to have an inhibiting effect on the deposition of copper whereas the sulphopropyl sulphides produced a stimulating (i.e. depolarising) effect. Studies of rest potentials made when both additives were present indicated that the sulphopropyl sulphide was preferentially adsorbed. The use of pulsed reverse current in solutions containing both polyether and sulphopropyl sulphide was found to cause desorption of the sulphopropyl sulphide at the cathode surface. Thus, at higher current densities, the inhibiting effect of the polyether produced an increase in the cathodic polarisation potential. At lower current densities, the depolarisation effect of the sulphopropyl sulphide could still occur. On printed circuit boards, this effect was found to produce an increase in the `hole throwing power' due to depolarisation of the holes relative to the surface of the boards. Typically, using direct current, hole/surface thickness ratios of 40% were obtained when plating 0.6 mm holes in a 3.2 mm thick board at a current density of 3 A/dm2 whereas using pulsed reverse current, ratios of 80% could be obtained at an equivalent rate of deposition. This was observed both in laboratory tests and on commercially plated boards.

Studies of solar radiation and its measurement

A mathematical model has been developed for predicting the spectral distribution of solar radiation incident on a horizontal surface. The solar spectrum in the wavelength range 0.29 to 4.0 micrometers has been divided in 144 intervals. Two variables in the model are the atmospheric water vapour content and atmospheric turbidity. After allowing for absorption and scattering in the atmosphere, the spectral intensity of direct and diffuse components of radiation are computed. When the predicted radiation levels are compared with the measured values for the total radiation and the values with glass filters RG715, RG630 and OG530, a close agreement (± 5%) has been achieved under clear sky conditions. A solar radiation measuring facility, close to the centre of Birmingham, has been set up utilising a microcomputer based data logging system. A suite of computer programs in the BASIC programming language has been developed and extensively tested for solar radiation data, logging, analysis and plotting. Two commonly used instruments, the Eppley PSP pyranometer and the Kipp and Zonen CM5 pyranometer, have been compared under different experimental conditions. Three models for computing the inclined plane irradiation, using total and diffuse radiation on a horizontal surface, have been tested for Birmingham. The anisotropic-alI-sky model, proposed by Klucher, provides a good agreement between the measured and the predicted radiation levels. Measurements of solar spectral distribution, using glass filters, are also reported for a number of inclines facing South.

Magnetoencephalography:technical improvements in image co-registration and studies of visual cortical oscillations

The work presented in this thesis is divided into two distinct sections. In the first, the functional neuroimaging technique of Magnetoencephalography (MEG) is described and a new technique is introduced for accurate combination of MEG and MRI co-ordinate systems. In the second part of this thesis, MEG and the analysis technique of SAM are used to investigate responses of the visual system in the context of functional specialisation within the visual cortex. In chapter one, the sources of MEG signals are described, followed by a brief description of the necessary instrumentation for accurate MEG recordings. This chapter is concluded by introducing the forward and inverse problems of MEG, techniques to solve the inverse problem, and a comparison of MEG with other neuroimaging techniques. Chapter two provides an important contribution to the field of research with MEG. Firstly, it is described how MEG and MRI co-ordinate systems are combined for localisation and visualisation of activated brain regions. A previously used co-registration methods is then described, and a new technique is introduced. In a series of experiments, it is demonstrated that using fixed fiducial points provides a considerable improvement in the accuracy and reliability of co-registration. Chapter three introduces the visual system starting from the retina and ending with the higher visual rates. The functions of the magnocellular and the parvocellular pathways are described and it is shown how the parallel visual pathways remain segregated throughout the visual system. The structural and functional organisation of the visual cortex is then described. Chapter four presents strong evidence in favour of the link between conscious experience and synchronised brain activity. The spatiotemporal responses of the visual cortex are measured in response to specific gratings. It is shown that stimuli that induce visual discomfort and visual illusions share their physical properties with those that induce highly synchronised gamma frequency oscillations in the primary visual cortex. Finally chapter five is concerned with localization of colour in the visual cortex. In this first ever use of Synthetic Aperture Magnetometry to investigate colour processing in the visual cortex, it is shown that in response to isoluminant chromatic gratings, the highest magnitude of cortical activity arise from area V2.

The biology of the lichen Rhizocarpon geographicum: symbionts, growth, ecology, and lichenometry

Rhizocarpon geographicum (L.) DC. is one of the most widely distributed species of crustose lichens. This unusual organism comprises yellow-green ‘areolae’ that contain the algal symbiont which develop and grow on the surface of a non-lichenized, fungal ‘hypothallus’ that extends beyond the margin of the areolae to form a marginal ring. This species grows exceptionally slowly with annual radial growth rates (RGR) as low as 0.07 mm yr-1 and its considerable longevity has been exploited by geologists in the development of methods of dating the age of exposure of rock surfaces and glacial moraines (‘lichenometry’). Recent research has established some aspects of the basic biology of this important and interesting organism. This chapter describes the general structure of R. geographicum, how the areolae and hypothallus develop, why the lichen grows so slowly, the growth rate-size curve, and some aspects of the ecology of R. geographicum including whether the lichen can inhibit the growth of its neighbours by chemical means (‘allelopathy’). Finally, the importance of R. geographicum in direct and indirect lichenometry is reviewed.

Reflections on assessing academic quality in marketing, and the UK REF

Purpose – The purpose of this editorial is to comment on the paper by Saunders and Wong in this issue. In doing so, the paper reflects on the notion of academic quality within marketing research, along with the systems in place to evaluate and reward it. Design/methodology/approach – The paper takes a reflective, discursive approach. Findings – The author finds that, while Saunders and Wong make a number of pertinent observations, and come up with interesting solutions, the notion of academic quality espoused in their paper is based on a logically flawed set of arguments. Research limitations/implications – The paper is primarily a personal view, and thus does not rely on any empirical research. Practical implications – There are key implications for many parties involved in the creation and assessment of marketing knowledge. In particular, scholars would be well advised to consider notions of quality in relation to their own work, rather than rely unquestioningly on existing definitions. Policy makers and research managers (e.g. business school deans) also need to consider what quality in academic research really is, and how to appropriately direct and reward it. Originality/value – The paper provides another perspective on the well-established debate regarding quality, and thus it is hoped will stimulate further thinking.

The effects of perceived business uncertainty, external consultants and risk management on organisational outcomes

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relations between perceived business uncertainty (PBU), use of external risk management (RM) consultants, formalisation of RM, magnitude of RM methods and perceived organisational outcomes. Design/methodology/approach: This paper is based on a questionnaire survey of members of the Chartered Institute of Management Accountants in the UK. Using AMOS 17.0, the paper tests the strength of the direct and indirect effects among the variables and explores the fit of the overall path model. Findings: The results indicate significant and positive associations exist between the extent of PBU and the level ofRMformalisation, as well as between the level ofRMformalisation and the magnitude of RMmethods adopted. The use of externalRMconsultants is also found to have a significant and positive impact on the magnitude of RM methods adopted. Finally, both the extent of RM formalisation and the magnitude of RM methods adopted are seen to be significantly associated with overall improvement in organisational outcomes. Research limitations/implications: The study uses perceptual measures of the level of business uncertainty, usage of RM and organisational outcomes. Further, the respondents are members of a management accounting professional body and the views of other managers, such as risk managers, who are also important to the governance process are not incorporated. Originality/value: This study provides empirical evidence on the impact ofRMdesign and usage on improvements in organisational outcomes. It contributes to the RM literature where empirical research is needed in order to be comparable with the traditional management control system literature.

A study of the relationship between exit, voice, loyalty and neglect and commitment in India

Drawing on exit, voice, loyalty and neglect (EVLN) literature, this study examines direct and interactive associations between organizational-level commitment and team-level commitment and the use of EVLN by managers in India. The study is based on a survey of 200 managers and supervisors from seven Indian firms. The findings on the use of voice are consistent with the past research in Western countries, but challenge the prevailing assumption about the use of voice in high power distance societies. The results also indicate that team-level commitment moderates the association between organizational-level commitment and the use of EVLN.

Personality and engagement at work:the mediating role of psychological meaningfulness

In this study, we examined the associations of personality traits of the Big Five model with work engagement, and tested a theoretical model in which these associations are mediated by the positive state of psychological meaningfulness (perceptions that work is valuable and meaningful). In a sample of 238 UK working adults, we found that the personality facets assertiveness and industriousness were the strongest predictors of work engagement, and that both exhibited direct and indirect effects, mediated by psychological meaningfulness. Neuroticism demonstrated a marginal indirect association with engagement, again mediated by psychological meaningfulness. Our findings offered good support for our model, explaining a pathway from personality traits to engagement. Practical implications for management are discussed. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Implicit leadership and followership theories 'in the wild':taking stock of information-processing approaches to leadership and followership in organizational settings

For over 30. years information-processing approaches to leadership and more specifically Implicit Leadership Theories (ILTs) research has contributed a significant body of knowledge on leadership processes in applied settings. A new line of research on Implicit Followership Theories (IFTs) has re-ignited interest in information-processing and socio-cognitive approaches to leadership and followership. In this review, we focus on organizational research on ILTs and IFTs and highlight their practical utility for the exercise of leadership and followership in applied settings. We clarify common misperceptions regarding the implicit nature of ILTs and IFTs, review both direct and indirect measures, synthesize current and ongoing research on ILTs and IFTs in organizational settings, address issues related to different levels of analysis in the context of leadership and follower schemas and, finally, propose future avenues for organizational research. © 2013 Elsevier Inc.

A survey based analysis of IT adoption and 3PLs' performance

Purpose: In today's competitive scenario, effective supply chain management is increasingly dependent on third-party logistics (3PL) companies' capabilities and performance. The dissemination of information technology (IT) has contributed to change the supply chain role of 3PL companies and IT is considered an important element influencing the performance of modern logistics companies. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to explore the relationship between IT and 3PLs' performance, assuming that logistics capabilities play a mediating role in this relationship. Design/methodology/approach: Empirical evidence based on a questionnaire survey conducted on a sample of logistics service companies operating in the Italian market was used to test a conceptual resource-based view (RBV) framework linking IT adoption, logistics capabilities and firm performance. Factor analysis and ordinary least square (OLS) regression analysis have been used to test hypotheses. The focus of the paper is multidisciplinary in nature; management of information systems, strategy, logistics and supply chain management approaches have been combined in the analysis. Findings: The results indicate strong relationships among data gathering technologies, transactional capabilities and firm performance, in terms of both efficiency and effectiveness. Moreover, a positive correlation between enterprise information technologies and 3PL financial performance has been found. Originality/value: The paper successfully uses the concept of logistics capabilities as mediating factor between IT adoption and firm performance. Objective measures have been proposed for IT adoption and logistics capabilities. Direct and indirect relationships among variables have been successfully tested. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited.