The design of a real-time nowcasting system for localised weather

National meteorological offices are largely concerned with synoptic-scale forecasting where weather predictions are produced for a whole country for 24 hours ahead. In practice, many local organisations (such as emergency services, construction industries, forestry, farming, and sports) require only local short-term, bespoke, weather predictions and warnings. This thesis shows that the less-demanding requirements do not require exceptional computing power and can be met by a modern, desk-top system which monitors site-specific ground conditions (such as temperature, pressure, wind speed and direction, etc) augmented with above ground information from satellite images to produce `nowcasts'. The emphasis in this thesis has been towards the design of such a real-time system for nowcasting. Local site-specific conditions are monitored using a custom-built, stand alone, Motorola 6809 based sub-system. Above ground information is received from the METEOSAT 4 geo-stationary satellite using a sub-system based on a commercially available equipment. The information is ephemeral and must be captured in real-time. The real-time nowcasting system for localised weather handles the data as a transparent task using the limited capabilities of the PC system. Ground data produces a time series of measurements at a specific location which represents the past-to-present atmospheric conditions of the particular site from which much information can be extracted. The novel approach adopted in this thesis is one of constructing stochastic models based on the AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) technique. The satellite images contain features (such as cloud formations) which evolve dynamically and may be subject to movement, growth, distortion, bifurcation, superposition, or elimination between images. The process of extracting a weather feature, following its motion and predicting its future evolution involves algorithms for normalisation, partitioning, filtering, image enhancement, and correlation of multi-dimensional signals in different domains. To limit the processing requirements, the analysis in this thesis concentrates on an `area of interest'. By this rationale, only a small fraction of the total image needs to be processed, leading to a major saving in time. The thesis also proposes an extention to an existing manual cloud classification technique for its implementation in automatically classifying a cloud feature over the `area of interest' for nowcasting using the multi-dimensional signals.

Nonlinear dynamics of a periodically driven Duffing resonator coupled to a Van der Pol oscillator

We explore the dynamics of a periodically driven Duffing resonator coupled elastically to a van der Pol oscillator in the case of 1?:?1 internal resonance in the cases of weak and strong coupling. Whilst strong coupling leads to dominating synchronization, the weak coupling case leads to a multitude of complex behaviours. A two-time scales method is used to obtain the frequency-amplitude modulation. The internal resonance leads to an antiresonance response of the Duffing resonator and a stagnant response (a small shoulder in the curve) of the van der Pol oscillator. The stability of the dynamic motions is also analyzed. The coupled system shows a hysteretic response pattern and symmetry-breaking facets. Chaotic behaviour of the coupled system is also observed and the dependence of the system dynamics on the parameters are also studied using bifurcation analysis.

Lobe formation and division in the foliose lichen Xanthoparmelia conspersa

New lobe development and lobe division was studied in the foliose lichen Xanthoparmelia conspersa (Ehrh. ex. Ach.) Hale. In thalli with either the centre or margin removed, the inside edge of the perimeter, the outer edge of the reproductive centre, and fragments derived from the thallus perimeter all regenerated growing points (‘lobe primordia’) within a year. Thalli possessing isidia had the greatest ability to regenerate growing points. In reproductive thalli, there was a positive correlation between the density of new growing points and thallus size. When fragments were cut from the perimeters of mature X. conspersa thalli and glued to pieces of slate, the ratio of growing points to mature lobes increased over 54 months. Lobes within a thallus exhibited different degrees of bifurcation. In some bifurcating lobes, the point of origin of the bifurcation advanced at the same rate as the lobe tips over 4 months but in most lobes, the bifurcation point either advanced less rapidly than the lobe tips or retreated from its original location. Removing adjacent lobes had no significant effect on the radial growth of a lobe over 4 months or on the location of the bifurcation point but it increased the number of growing points. These results suggest that for X. conspersa: 1) all portions of of thalli can regenerate growing points, 2) few growing points actually develop into mature lobes, 3) individual lobes within a thallus grow and divide differently, and 4) adjacent lobes inhibit the development of growing points on their neighbours.

Characterization of the hairpin vortex solution in plane Couette flow

Quantitative evidence that establishes the existence of the hairpin vortex state (HVS) in plane Couette flow (PCF) is provided in this work. The evidence presented in this paper shows that the HVS can be obtained via homotopy from a flow with a simple geometrical configuration, namely, the laterally heated flow (LHF). Although the early stages of bifurcations of LHF have been previously investigated, our linear stability analysis reveals that the root in the LHF yields multiple branches via symmetry breaking. These branches connect to the PCF manifold as steady nonlinear amplitude solutions. Moreover, we show that the HVS has a direct bifurcation route to the Rayleigh-Bénard convection. © 2010 The American Physical Society.

Transition in plane parallel shear flows heated internally

The stability of internally heated inclined plane parallel shear flows is examined numerically for the case of finite value of the Prandtl number, Pr. The transition in a vertical channel has already been studied for 0≤Pr≤100 with or without the application of an external pressure gradient, where the secondary flow takes the form of travelling waves (TWs) that are spanwise-independent (see works of Nagata and Generalis). In this work, in contrast to work already reported (J. Heat Trans. T. ASME 124 (2002) 635-642), we examine transition where the secondary flow takes the form of longitudinal rolls (LRs), which are independent of the steamwise direction, for Pr=7 and for a specific value of the angle of inclination of the fluid layer without the application of an external pressure gradient. We find possible bifurcation points of the secondary flow by performing a linear stability analysis that determines the neutral curve, where the basic flow, which can have two inflection points, loses stability. The linear stability of the secondary flow against three-dimensional perturbations is also examined numerically for the same value of the angle of inclination by employing Floquet theory. We identify possible bifurcation points for the tertiary flow and show that the bifurcation can be either monotone or oscillatory. © 2003 Académie des sciences. Published by Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

Retinal vessel tortuosity measures and their applications

Structural retinal vascular characteristics, such as vessel calibers, tortuosity and bifurcation angles are increasingly quantified in an objective manner, slowly replacing subjective qualitative disease classification schemes. This paper provides an overview of the current methodologies and calculations used to compute retinal vessel tortuosity. We set out the different parameter calculations and provide an insight into the clinical applications, while critically reviewing its pitfalls and shortcomings.

Deflection of jets discharged into a reservoir with a free surface

Deflections of jets discharged into a reservoir with a free surface are investigated numerically. The jets are known to deflect towards either side of the free surface or the bottom, whose direction is not determined uniquely in some experimental conditions, i.e. there are multiple stable states realizable in the same condition. The origin of the multiple stable states is explored by utilizing homotopy transformations in which the top boundary of the reservoir is transformed from a rigid to a free boundary and also the location of the outlet throat is continuously moved from mid-height to the top. We depicted bifurcation diagrams of the flow compiling the data of numerical simulations, from which we identified the origin as an imperfect pitchfork bifurcation, and obtained an insight into the mechanism for the direction to be determined. The parameter region where such multiple stable states are possible is also delimited. © 2011 The Japan Society of Fluid Mechanics and IOP Publishing Ltd.

Bistable regimes in an optically injected mode-locked laser

We study experimentally the dynamics of quantum-dot (QD) passively mode-locked semiconductor lasers under external optical injection. The lasers demonstrated multiple dynamical states, with bifurcation boundaries that depended upon the sign of detuning variation. The area of the hysteresis loops grew monotonically at small powers of optical injection and saturated at moderate powers. At high injection levels the hysteresis decreased and eventually disappeared.

Effect of aspect ratio on thermal convection in open and closed systems

Internally heated fluids are found across the nuclear fuel cycle. In certain situations the motion of the fluid is driven by the decay heat (i.e. corium melt pools in severe accidents, the shutdown of liquid metal reactors, molten salt and the passive control of light water reactors) as well as normal operation (i.e. intermediate waste storage and generation IV reactor designs). This can in the long-term affect reactor vessel integrity or lead to localized hot spots and accumulation of solid wastes that may prompt local increases in activity. Two approaches to the modeling of internally heated convection are presented here. These are based on numerical analysis using codes developed in-house and simulations using widely available computational fluid dynamics solvers. Open and closed fluid layers at around the transition between conduction and convection of various aspect ratios are considered. We determine optimum domain aspect ratio (1:7:7 up to 1:24:24 for open systems and 5:5:1, 1:10:10 and 1:20:20 for closed systems), mesh resolutions and turbulence models required to accurately and efficiently capture the convection structures that evolve when perturbing the conductive state of the fluid layer. Note that the open and closed fluid layers we study here are bounded by a conducting surface over an insulating surface. Conclusions will be drawn on the influence of the periodic boundary conditions on the flow patterns observed. We have also examined the stability of the nonlinear solutions that we found with the aim of identifying the bifurcation sequence of these solutions en route to turbulence.

Spectral characteristics of tapered LPG device as a sensing element for refractive index and temperature

The fabrication and characterization of long-period gratings (LPGs) in fiber tapers is presented alongside supporting theory. The devices possess a high sensitivity to the index of aqueous solutions due to an observed spectral bifurcation effect, yielding a limiting index resolution of ±8.5 × 10-5 for solutions with an index in the range 1.330-1.335. © 2006 IEEE.

Bistable regimes in an optically injected mode-locked laser

We study experimentally the dynamics of quantum-dot (QD) passively mode-locked semiconductor lasers under external optical injection. The lasers demonstrated multiple dynamical states, with bifurcation boundaries that depended upon the sign of detuning variation. The area of the hysteresis loops grew monotonically at small powers of optical injection and saturated at moderate powers. At high injection levels the hysteresis decreased and eventually disappeared.

Tapered fibre LPG device as a sensing element for refractive index

The fabrication and characterisation of Long Period Gratings in fibre tapers is presented alongside supporting theory. The devices possess a high sensitivity to the index of aqueous solutions due to an observed spectral bifurcation effect.

角柱列を過ぎる流れの合流現象と乱流への遷移

Interactions between the wakes in a flow past a row of square bars are investigated by numerical simulations, the linear stability analysis and the bifurcation analysis. It is assumed that the row of square bars is placed across a uniform flow. Two-dimensional and incompressible flow field is also assumed. The flow is steady and symmetric along a streamwise centerline through the center of each square bar at low Reynolds numbers. However, it becomes unsteady and periodic in time at the Reynolds numbers larger than a critical value, and then the wakes behind the square bars become oscillatory. It is found by numerical simulations that vortices are shed synchronously from every couple of adjacent square bars in the same phase or in the anti-phase depending upon the distance between the bars. The synchronous shedding of vortices is clarified to occur due to an instability of the steady symmetric flow by the linear stability analysis. The bifurcation diagram of the flow is obtained and the critical Reynolds number of the instability is evaluated numerically.

Dropout dynamics in pulsed quantum dot lasers due to mode jumping

We examine the response of a pulse pumped quantum dot laser both experimentally and numerically. As the maximum of the pump pulse comes closer to the excited-state threshold, the output pulse shape becomes unstable and leads to dropouts. We conjecture that these instabilities result from an increase of the linewidth enhancement factor α as the pump parameter comes close to the excitated state threshold. In order to analyze the dynamical mechanism of the dropout, we consider two cases for which the laser exhibits either a jump to a different single mode or a jump to fast intensity oscillations. The origin of these two instabilities is clarified by a combined analytical and numerical bifurcation diagram of the steady state intensity modes.

Generation of decelerating Airy pulses

The explicit expression for spatial-temporal Airy pulse is derived from the Maxwell's equations in paraxial approximation. The trajectory of the pulse in the time-space coordinates is analysed. The existence of a bifurcation point that separates regions with qualitatively different features of the pulse propagation is demonstrated. At this point the velocity of the pulse becomes infinite and the orientation of it changes to the opposite. © 2011 IEEE.