Minimizing nasty surprises with better informed decision-making in self-adaptive systems

Designers of self-adaptive systems often formulate adaptive design decisions, making unrealistic or myopic assumptions about the system's requirements and environment. The decisions taken during this formulation are crucial for satisfying requirements. In environments which are characterized by uncertainty and dynamism, deviation from these assumptions is the norm and may trigger 'surprises'. Our method allows designers to make explicit links between the possible emergence of surprises, risks and design trade-offs. The method can be used to explore the design decisions for self-adaptive systems and choose among decisions that better fulfil (or rather partially fulfil) non-functional requirements and address their trade-offs. The analysis can also provide designers with valuable input for refining the adaptation decisions to balance, for example, resilience (i.e. Satisfiability of non-functional requirements and their trade-offs) and stability (i.e. Minimizing the frequency of adaptation). The objective is to provide designers of self adaptive systems with a basis for multi-dimensional what-if analysis to revise and improve the understanding of the environment and its effect on non-functional requirements and thereafter decision-making. We have applied the method to a wireless sensor network for flood prediction. The application shows that the method gives rise to questions that were not explicitly asked before at design-time and assists designers in the process of risk-aware, what-if and trade-off analysis.

Mitigation of patterning effects at 40 Gbits/s by skewed channel pre-encoding

Through direct modeling, a reduction of pattern-dependent errors in a standard fiber-based transmission link at 40 Gbits/s rate is demonstrated by application of a skewed data pre-encoding. The trade-off between the improvement of the bit error rate and the loss in the data rate is examined.

Mitigation of patterning effects at 40 Gb/s by skewed channel pre-encoding

Through modelling of direct error computation, a reduction of pattern- dependent errors in a standard fiber-based transmission link at 40 Gb/s rate is demonstrated by application of a skewed data pre-encoding. The trade-off between the bit-error rate improvement and the data rate loss is examined.

Recent developments in particulate-based vaccines

Vaccines remain a key tool in the defence against major diseases. However, in the development of vaccines a trade off between safety and efficacy is required with newer vaccines, based on sub-unit proteins and peptides, displaying improved safety profiles yet suffering from low efficacy. Adjuvants can be employed to improve their potency, but currently there are only a limited number of adjuvant systems licensed for clinical use. Of the new adjuvants being investigated, particulate systems offer several advantages including: passive targeting to the antigen-presenting cells within the immune system, protection against adjuvant degradation, and ability for sustained antigen release. There has been a range of particulate vaccine delivery systems outlined in recent patents including polymer-based microspheres (which are generally more focused on the use of synthetic polymers, in particular the polyesters) and surfactant-based vesicles. Within these formulations, several patented systems are exploiting the use of cationic lipids which, despite their limitations in gene therapy, clearly offer strong potential as adjuvants. Within this review, the current range of particulate system technologies being investigated as potential adjuvants are discussed with regard to both their respective advantages and the potential hurdles which must be overcome for such systems to be converted into successful pharmaceutical products.

When does leverage hurt productivity growth? A firm-level analysis:a firm-level analysis

In the wake of the global financial crisis, several macroeconomic contributions have highlighted the risks of excessive credit expansion. In particular, too much finance can have a negative impact on growth. We examine the microeconomic foundations of this argument, positing a non-monotonic relationship between leverage and firm-level productivity growth in the spirit of the trade-off theory of capital structure. A threshold regression model estimated on a sample of Central and Eastern European countries confirms that TFP growth increases with leverage until the latter reaches a critical threshold beyond which leverage lowers TFP growth. This estimate can provide guidance to firms and policy makers on identifying "excessive" leverage. We find similar non-monotonic relationships between leverage and proxies for firm value. Our results are a first step in bridging the gap between the literature on optimal capital structure and the wider macro literature on the finance-growth nexus. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

Low severity Fischer-Tropsch synthesis for the production of synthetic hydrocarbon fuels

Currently, the main source for the production of liquid transportation fuels is petroleum, the continued use of which faces many challenges including depleting oil reserves, significant oil price rises, and environmental concerns over global warming which is widely believed to be due to fossil fuel derived CO2 emissions and other greenhouse gases. In this respect, lignocellulosic or plant biomass is a particularly interesting resource as it is the only renewable source of organic carbon that can be converted into liquid transportation fuels. The gasification of biomass produces syngas which can then be converted into synthetic liquid hydrocarbon fuels by means of the Fischer-Tropsch (FT) synthesis. This process has been widely considered as an attractive option for producing clean liquid hydrocarbon fuels from biomass that have been identified as promising alternatives to conventional fossil fuels like diesel and kerosene. The resulting product composition in FT synthesis is influenced by the type of catalyst and the reaction conditions that are used in the process. One of the issues facing this conversion process is the development of a technology that can be scaled down to match the scattered nature of biomass resources, including lower operating pressures, without compromising liquid composition. The primary aims of this work were to experimentally explore FT synthesis at low pressures for the purpose of process down-scaling and cost reduction, and to investigate the potential for obtaining an intermediate FT synthetic crude liquid product that can be integrated into existing refineries under the range of process conditions employed. Two different fixed-bed micro-reactors were used for FT synthesis; a 2cm3 reactor at the University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) and a 20cm3 reactor at Aston University. The experimental work firstly involved the selection of a suitable catalyst from three that were available. Secondly, a parameter study was carried out on the 20cm3 reactor using the selected catalyst to investigate the influence of reactor temperature, reactor pressure, space velocity, the H2/CO molar ratio in the feed syngas and catalyst loading on the reaction performance measured as CO conversion, catalyst stability, product distribution, product yields and liquid hydrocarbon product composition. From this parameter study a set of preferred operating conditions was identified for low pressure FT synthesis. The three catalysts were characterized using BET, XRD, TPR and SEM. The catalyst selected was an unpromoted Co/Al2O3 catalyst. FT synthesis runs on the 20cm3 reactor at Aston were conducted for 48 hours. Permanent gases and light hydrocarbons (C1-C5) were analysed in an online GC-TCD/FID at hourly intervals. The liquid hydrocarbons collected were analyzed offline using GC-MS for determination of fuel composition. The parameter study showed that CO conversion and liquid hydrocarbon yields increase with increasing reactor pressure up to around 8 bar, above which the effect of pressure is small. The parameters that had the most significant influence on CO conversion, product selectivity and liquid hydrocarbon yields were reactor temperature and catalyst loading. The preferred reaction conditions identified for this research were: T = 230ºC, P = 10 bar, H2/CO = 2.0, WHSV = 2.2 h-1, and catalyst loading = 2.0g. Operation in the low range of pressures studied resulted in low CO conversions and liquid hydrocarbon yields, indicating that low pressure BTL-FT operation may not be industrially viable as the trade off in lower CO conversions and once-through liquid hydrocarbon product yields has to be carefully weighed against the potential cost savings resulting from process operation at lower pressures.

Transparent heterogeneous terrestrial optical communication networks with phase modulated signals

This thesis presents a large scale numerical investigation of heterogeneous terrestrial optical communications systems and the upgrade of fourth generation terrestrial core to metro legacy interconnects to fifth generation transmission system technologies. Retrofitting (without changing infrastructure) is considered for commercial applications. ROADM are crucial enabling components for future core network developments however their re-routing ability means signals can be switched mid-link onto sub-optimally configured paths which raises new challenges in network management. System performance is determined by a trade-off between nonlinear impairments and noise, where the nonlinear signal distortions depend critically on deployed dispersion maps. This thesis presents a comprehensive numerical investigation into the implementation of phase modulated signals in transparent reconfigurable wavelength division multiplexed fibre optic communication terrestrial heterogeneous networks. A key issue during system upgrades is whether differential phase encoded modulation formats are compatible with the cost optimised dispersion schemes employed in current 10 Gb/s systems. We explore how robust transmission is to inevitable variations in the dispersion mapping and how large the margins are when suboptimal dispersion management is applied. We show that a DPSK transmission system is not drastically affected by reconfiguration from periodic dispersion management to lumped dispersion mapping. A novel DPSK dispersion map optimisation methodology which reduces drastically the optimisation parameter space and the many ways to deploy dispersion maps is also presented. This alleviates strenuous computing requirements in optimisation calculations. This thesis provides a very efficient and robust way to identify high performing lumped dispersion compensating schemes for use in heterogeneous RZ-DPSK terrestrial meshed networks with ROADMs. A modified search algorithm which further reduces this number of configuration combinations is also presented. The results of an investigation of the feasibility of detouring signals locally in multi-path heterogeneous ring networks is also presented.

Satisfying requirements for pervasive service compositions

Pervasive environments are characterised by highly heterogeneous services and mobile devices with dynamic availability. Approaches such as that proposed by the Connect project provide means to enable such systems to be discovered and composed, through mediation where necessary. As services appear and disappear, the set of feasible compositions changes. In such a pervasive environment, a designer encounters two related challenges: what goals it is reasonable to pursue in the current context and how to use the services presently available to achieve his goals. This paper proposes an approach to design service compositions, facilitating an interactive process to find the trade-off between the possible and the desirable. Following our approach, the system finds at runtime, where possible, compositions related to the developer's requirements. This process can realise the intent the developer specifies at design time, taking into account the services available at runtime, without a prohibitive level of pre-specification, inappropriate for such dynamic environments. © 2012 ACM.

SFBC MIMO energy efficiency improvements of common packet schedulers for the long term evolution downlink

It is desirable that energy performance improvement is not realized at the expense of other network performance parameters. This paper investigates the trade off between energy efficiency, spectral efficiency and user QoS performance for a multi-cell multi-user radio access network. Specifically, the energy consumption ratio (ECR) and the spectral efficiency of several common frequency domain packet schedulers in a cellular E-UTRAN downlink are compared for both the SISO transmission mode and the 2x2 Alamouti Space Frequency Block Code (SFBC) MIMO transmission mode. It is well known that the 2x2 SFBC MIMO transmission mode is more spectrally efficient compared to the SISO transmission mode, however, the relationship between energy efficiency and spectral efficiency is undecided. It is shown that, for the E-UTRAN downlink with fixed transmission power, spectral efficiency improvement results into energy efficiency improvement. The effect of SFBC MIMO versus SISO on the user QoS performance is also studied. © 2011 IEEE.

Mitigation of patterning effects at 40 Gbits/s by skewed channel pre-encoding

Through direct modeling, a reduction of pattern-dependent errors in a standard fiber-based transmission link at 40 Gbits/s rate is demonstrated by application of a skewed data pre-encoding. The trade-off between the improvement of the bit error rate and the loss in the data rate is examined. © 2007 Optical Society of America.

Mitigation of patterning effects at 40 Gb/s by skewed channel pre-encoding

Through modelling of direct error computation, a reduction of pattern- dependent errors in a standard fiber-based transmission link at 40 Gb/s rate is demonstrated by application of a skewed data pre-encoding. The trade-off between the bit-error rate improvement and the data rate loss is examined.

Cortical mechanisms of attention in time:neural correlates of the Lag-1-sparing phenomenon

If humans monitor streams of rapidly presented (approximately 100-ms intervals) visual stimuli, which are typically specific single letters of the alphabet, for two targets (T1 and T2), they often miss T2 if it follows T1 within an interval of 200-500 ms. If T2 follows T1 directly (within 100 ms; described as occurring at 'Lag 1'), however, performance is often excellent: the so-called 'Lag-1 sparing' phenomenon. Lag-1 sparing might result from the integration of the two targets into the same 'event representation', which fits with the observation that sparing is often accompanied by a loss of T1-T2 order information. Alternatively, this might point to competition between the two targets (implying a trade-off between performance on T1 and T2) and Lag-1 sparing might solely emerge from conditional data analysis (i.e. T2 performance given T1 correct). We investigated the neural correlates of Lag-1 sparing by carrying out magnetoencephalography (MEG) recordings during an attentional blink (AB) task, by presenting two targets with a temporal lag of either 1 or 2 and, in the case of Lag 2, with a nontarget or a blank intervening between T1 and T2. In contrast to Lag 2, where two distinct neural responses were observed, at Lag 1 the two targets produced one common neural response in the left temporo-parieto-frontal (TPF) area but not in the right TPF or prefrontal areas. We discuss the implications of this result with respect to competition and integration hypotheses, and with respect to the different functional roles of the cortical areas considered. We suggest that more than one target can be identified in parallel in left TPF, at least in the absence of intervening nontarget information (i.e. masks), yet identified targets are processed and consolidated as two separate events by other cortical areas (right TPF and PFC, respectively).

A diversity dilemma in evolutionary markets

Markets are useful mechanisms for performing resource al- location in fully decentralised computational and other systems, since they can possess a range of desirable properties, such as efficiency, decentralisation, robustness and scalability. In this paper we investigate the behaviour of co-evolving evolutionary market agents as adaptive offer generators for sellers in a multi-attribute posted-offer market. We demonstrate that the evolutionary approach enables sellers to automatically position themselves in market niches, created by heterogeneous buyers. We find that a trade-off exists for the evolutionary sellers between maintaining high population diversity to facilitate movement between niches and low diversity to exploit the current niche and maximise cumulative payoff. We characterise the trade-off from the perspective of the system as a whole, and subsequently from that of an individual seller. Our results highlight a decision on risk aversion for resource providers, but crucially we show that rational self-interested sellers would not adopt the behaviour likely to lead to the ideal result from the system point of view.

A quality driven framework for adaptive video streaming in mobile wireless networks

The concern over the quality of delivering video streaming services in mobile wireless networks is addressed in this work. A framework that enhances the Quality of Experience (QoE) of end users through a quality driven resource allocation scheme is proposed. To play a key role, an objective no-reference quality metric, Pause Intensity (PI), is adopted to derive a resource allocation algorithm for video streaming. The framework is examined in the context of 3GPP Long Term Evolution (LTE) systems. The requirements and structure of the proposed PI-based framework are discussed, and results are compared with existing scheduling methods on fairness, efficiency and correlation (between the required and allocated data rates). Furthermore, it is shown that the proposed framework can produce a trade-off between the three parameters through the QoE-aware resource allocation process.

Adaptive resource allocation for QoE-aware mobile communication networks

A real-time adaptive resource allocation algorithm considering the end user's Quality of Experience (QoE) in the context of video streaming service is presented in this work. An objective no-reference quality metric, namely Pause Intensity (PI), is used to control the priority of resource allocation to users during the scheduling process. An online adjustment has been introduced to adaptively set the scheduler's parameter and maintain a desired trade-off between fairness and efficiency. The correlation between the data rates (i.e. video code rates) demanded by users and the data rates allocated by the scheduler is taken into account as well. The final allocated rates are determined based on the channel status, the distribution of PI values among users, and the scheduling policy adopted. Furthermore, since the user's capability varies as the environment conditions change, the rate adaptation mechanism for video streaming is considered and its interaction with the scheduling process under the same PI metric is studied. The feasibility of implementing this algorithm is examined and the result is compared with the most commonly existing scheduling methods.