The application of methods of uncertain reasoning to the biological classification of river water quality

This thesis presents an investigation into the application of methods of uncertain reasoning to the biological classification of river water quality. Existing biological methods for reporting river water quality are critically evaluated, and the adoption of a discrete biological classification scheme advocated. Reasoning methods for managing uncertainty are explained, in which the Bayesian and Dempster-Shafer calculi are cited as primary numerical schemes. Elicitation of qualitative knowledge on benthic invertebrates is described. The specificity of benthic response to changes in water quality leads to the adoption of a sensor model of data interpretation, in which a reference set of taxa provide probabilistic support for the biological classes. The significance of sensor states, including that of absence, is shown. Novel techniques of directly eliciting the required uncertainty measures are presented. Bayesian and Dempster-Shafer calculi were used to combine the evidence provided by the sensors. The performance of these automatic classifiers was compared with the expert's own discrete classification of sampled sites. Variations of sensor data weighting, combination order and belief representation were examined for their effect on classification performance. The behaviour of the calculi under evidential conflict and alternative combination rules was investigated. Small variations in evidential weight and the inclusion of evidence from sensors absent from a sample improved classification performance of Bayesian belief and support for singleton hypotheses. For simple support, inclusion of absent evidence decreased classification rate. The performance of Dempster-Shafer classification using consonant belief functions was comparable to Bayesian and singleton belief. Recommendations are made for further work in biological classification using uncertain reasoning methods, including the combination of multiple-expert opinion, the use of Bayesian networks, and the integration of classification software within a decision support system for water quality assessment.

METEX: An expert system for metamorphic petrography

Classification of metamorphic rocks is normally carried out using a poorly defined, subjective classification scheme making this an area in which many undergraduate geologists experience difficulties. An expert system to assist in such classification is presented which is capable of classifying rocks and also giving further details about a particular rock type. A mixed knowledge representation is used with frame, semantic and production rule systems available. Classification in the domain requires that different facets of a rock be classified. To implement this, rocks are represented by 'context' frames with slots representing each facet. Slots are satisfied by calling a pre-defined ruleset to carry out the necessary inference. The inference is handled by an interpreter which uses a dependency graph representation for the propagation of evidence. Uncertainty is handled by the system using a combination of the MYCIN certainty factor system and the Dempster-Shafer range mechanism. This allows for positive and negative reasoning, with rules capable of representing necessity and sufficiency of evidence, whilst also allowing the implementation of an alpha-beta pruning algorithm to guide question selection during inference. The system also utilizes a semantic net type structure to allow the expert to encode simple relationships between terms enabling rules to be written with a sensible level of abstraction. Using frames to represent rock types where subclassification is possible allows the knowledge base to be built in a modular fashion with subclassification frames only defined once the higher level of classification is functioning. Rulesets can similarly be added in modular fashion with the individual rules being essentially declarative allowing for simple updating and maintenance. The knowledge base so far developed for metamorphic classification serves to demonstrate the performance of the interpreter design whilst also moving some way towards providing a useful assistant to the non-expert metamorphic petrologist. The system demonstrates the possibilities for a fully developed knowledge base to handle the classification of igneous, sedimentary and metamorphic rocks. The current knowledge base and interpreter have been evaluated by potential users and experts. The results of the evaluation show that the system performs to an acceptable level and should be of use as a tool for both undergraduates and researchers from outside the metamorphic petrography field. .

A process framework for selecting supply system architecture in manufacturing supply chains and networks

The process framework comprises three phases, as follows: scope the supply chain/network; identify the options for supply system architecture and select supply system architecture. It facilitates a structured approach that analyses the supply chain/network contextual characteristics, in order to ensure alignment with the appropriate supply system architecture. The process framework was derived from comprehensive literature review and archival case study analysis. The review led to the classification of supply system architectures according to their orientation, whether integrated; partially integrated; co-ordinated or independent. The classification was combined with the characteristics that influence the selection of supply system architecture to encapsulate the conceptual framework. It builds upon existing frameworks and methodologies by focusing on structured procedure; supporting project management; facilitating participation and clarifying point of entry. The process framework was initially tested in three case study applications from the food, automobile and hand tool industries. A variety of industrial settings was chosen to illustrate transferability. The case study applications indicate that the process framework is a valid approach to the problem; however, further testing is required. In particular, the use of group support system technologies to support the process and the steps involving the participation of software vendors need further testing. However, the process framework can be followed due to the clarity of its presentation. It considers the issue of timing by including alternative decision-making techniques, dependent on the constraints. It is useful for ensuring a sound business case is developed, with supporting documentation and analysis that identifies the strategic and functional requirements of supply system architecture.

A smart sensing platform for the classification of ambulatory patterns

This paper describes an innovative sensing approach allowing capture, discrimination, and classification of transients automatically in gait. A walking platform is described, which offers an alternative design to that of standard force plates with advantages that include mechanical simplicity and less restriction on dimensions. The scope of the work is to investigate as an experiment the sensitivity of the distributive tactile sensing method with the potential to address flexibility on gait assessment, including patient targeting and the extension to a variety of ambulatory applications. Using infrared sensors to measure plate deflection, gait patterns are compared with stored templates using a pattern recognition algorithm. This information is input into a neural network to classify normal and affected walking events, with a classification accuracy of just under 90 per cent achieved. The system developed has potential applications in gait analysis and rehabilitation, whereby it can be used as a tool for early diagnosis of walking disorders or to determine changes between pre- and post-operative gait.

An opportunity for system dynamics in manufacturing system modelling

The computer simulation of manufacturing systems is commonly carried out using discrete event simulation (DES). Indeed, there appears to be a lack of applications of continuous simulation methods, particularly system dynamics (SD), despite evidence that this technique is suitable for industrial modelling. This paper investigates whether this is due to a decline in the general popularity of SD, or whether modelling of manufacturing systems represents a missed opportunity for SD. On this basis, the paper first gives a review of the concept of SD and fully describes the modelling technique. Following on, a survey of the published applications of SD in the 1990s is made by developing and using a structured classification approach. From this review, observations are made about the application of the SD method and opportunities for future research are suggested.

On the 'classification' of neurodegenerative disorders:discrete entities, overlap or continuum?

The traditional method of classifying neurodegenerative diseases is based on the original clinico-pathological concept supported by 'consensus' criteria and data from molecular pathological studies. This review discusses first, current problems in classification resulting from the coexistence of different classificatory schemes, the presence of disease heterogeneity and multiple pathologies, the use of 'signature' brain lesions in diagnosis, and the existence of pathological processes common to different diseases. Second, three models of neurodegenerative disease are proposed: (1) that distinct diseases exist ('discrete' model), (2) that relatively distinct diseases exist but exhibit overlapping features ('overlap' model), and (3) that distinct diseases do not exist and neurodegenerative disease is a 'continuum' in which there is continuous variation in clinical/pathological features from one case to another ('continuum' model). Third, to distinguish between models, the distribution of the most important molecular 'signature' lesions across the different diseases is reviewed. Such lesions often have poor 'fidelity', i.e., they are not unique to individual disorders but are distributed across many diseases consistent with the overlap or continuum models. Fourth, the question of whether the current classificatory system should be rejected is considered and three alternatives are proposed, viz., objective classification, classification for convenience (a 'dissection'), or analysis as a continuum.

Psychological cue use and implications for a clinical decision support system

Effective clinical decision making depends upon identifying possible outcomes for a patient, selecting relevant cues, and processing the cues to arrive at accurate judgements of each outcome's probability of occurrence. These activities can be considered as classification tasks. This paper describes a new model of psychological classification that explains how people use cues to determine class or outcome likelihoods. It proposes that clinicians respond to conditional probabilities of outcomes given cues and that these probabilities compete with each other for influence on classification. The model explains why people appear to respond to base rates inappropriately, thereby overestimating the occurrence of rare categories, and a clinical example is provided for predicting suicide risk. The model makes an effective representation for expert clinical judgements and its psychological validity enables it to generate explanations in a form that is comprehensible to clinicians. It is a strong candidate for incorporation within a decision support system for mental-health risk assessment, where it can link with statistical and pattern recognition tools applied to a database of patients. The symbiotic combination of empirical evidence and clinical expertise can provide an important web-based resource for risk assessment, including multi-disciplinary education and training. © 2002 Informa UK Ltd All rights reserved.

A simple remote sensing based information system for monitoring sites of conservation importance

Monitoring is essential for conservation of sites, but capacity to undertake it in the field is often limited. Data collected by remote sensing has been identified as a partial solution to this problem, and is becoming a feasible option, since increasing quantities of satellite data in particular are becoming available to conservationists. When suitably classified, satellite imagery can be used to delineate land cover types such as forest, and to identify any changes over time. However, the conservation community lacks (a) a simple tool appropriate to the needs for monitoring change in all types of land cover (e.g. not just forest), and (b) an easily accessible information system which allows for simple land cover change analysis and data sharing to reduce duplication of effort. To meet these needs, we developed a web-based information system which allows users to assess land cover dynamics in and around protected areas (or other sites of conservation importance) from multi-temporal medium resolution satellite imagery. The system is based around an open access toolbox that pre-processes and classifies Landsat-type imagery, and then allows users to interactively verify the classification. These data are then open for others to utilize through the online information system. We first explain imagery processing and data accessibility features, and then demonstrate the toolbox and the value of user verification using a case study on Nakuru National Park, Kenya. Monitoring and detection of disturbances can support implementation of effective protection, assist the work of park managers and conservation scientists, and thus contribute to conservation planning, priority assessment and potentially to meeting monitoring needs for Aichi target 11.

Large volume metrology process model:measurability analysis with integration of metrology classification model and feature-based selection model

Aircraft manufacturing industries are looking for solutions in order to increase their productivity. One of the solutions is to apply the metrology systems during the production and assembly processes. Metrology Process Model (MPM) (Maropoulos et al, 2007) has been introduced which emphasises metrology applications with assembly planning, manufacturing processes and product designing. Measurability analysis is part of the MPM and the aim of this analysis is to check the feasibility for measuring the designed large scale components. Measurability Analysis has been integrated in order to provide an efficient matching system. Metrology database is structured by developing the Metrology Classification Model. Furthermore, the feature-based selection model is also explained. By combining two classification models, a novel approach and selection processes for integrated measurability analysis system (MAS) are introduced and such integrated MAS could provide much more meaningful matching results for the operators. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2010.