Short-term electricity demand and gas price forecasts using wavelet transforms and adaptive models

This paper presents some forecasting techniques for energy demand and price prediction, one day ahead. These techniques combine wavelet transform (WT) with fixed and adaptive machine learning/time series models (multi-layer perceptron (MLP), radial basis functions, linear regression, or GARCH). To create an adaptive model, we use an extended Kalman filter or particle filter to update the parameters continuously on the test set. The adaptive GARCH model is a new contribution, broadening the applicability of GARCH methods. We empirically compared two approaches of combining the WT with prediction models: multicomponent forecasts and direct forecasts. These techniques are applied to large sets of real data (both stationary and non-stationary) from the UK energy markets, so as to provide comparative results that are statistically stronger than those previously reported. The results showed that the forecasting accuracy is significantly improved by using the WT and adaptive models. The best models on the electricity demand/gas price forecast are the adaptive MLP/GARCH with the multicomponent forecast; their MSEs are 0.02314 and 0.15384 respectively.

A constructive learning algorithm based on back-propagation

There are been a resurgence of interest in the neural networks field in recent years, provoked in part by the discovery of the properties of multi-layer networks. This interest has in turn raised questions about the possibility of making neural network behaviour more adaptive by automating some of the processes involved. Prior to these particular questions, the process of determining the parameters and network architecture required to solve a given problem had been a time consuming activity. A number of researchers have attempted to address these issues by automating these processes, concentrating in particular on the dynamic selection of an appropriate network architecture.The work presented here specifically explores the area of automatic architecture selection; it focuses upon the design and implementation of a dynamic algorithm based on the Back-Propagation learning algorithm. The algorithm constructs a single hidden layer as the learning process proceeds using individual pattern error as the basis of unit insertion. This algorithm is applied to several problems of differing type and complexity and is found to produce near minimal architectures that are shown to have a high level of generalisation ability.

The manufacture and utilisation of architectural terracotta and faience.

The revival of terracotta and faience in British architecture was widespread, dramatic in its results and, for two decades, the subject of intense debate. However the materials have been frequently denigrated and more generally disregarded by both architects and historians. This study sets out to record and explain the rise and fall of interest in terracotta and faience, the extent and nature of the industry and the range of architectural usage in the Victorian, Edwardian and inter-war periods. The first two chapters record the faltering use of terracotta as an 'artificial stone', until the material gained its own identity, largely through the appreciation of Italian architecture. In the mid-Victorian period, terracotta will be seen to have become symbolic of the philosophy of the Victoria and Albert Museum and its Art School in attempting to reform both architecture and the decorative arts. The adoption of terracotta was furthered as much by industrial as aesthetic factors; three chapters examine how the exploitation of coal-measure clays, developments in the processes of manufacture, the changing motivation of industrialists and differing economics of production served to promote and then to hinder expansion and adaptation. The practical values of economy, durability and fire-resistance and the aesthetic potential, seen in terms of colour and decorative and sculptural modelling, became inter-related in the work of the architects who made extensive use of architectural ceramics. A correlation emerges between the free Gothic style, exemplified by the designs of Alfred Waterhouse and the use of red terracotta supplied from Ruabon, and between the eclectic Renaissance style and a buff material produced by different manufacturers.These patterns were modified as a result of the adoption of faience for facing external walls as well as interiors, and because of the new architectural requirements and tastes of the twentieth century. The general timidity in exploiting the scope for polychromatic decoration and the increasing opposition to architectural ceramics is contrasted with the most successful schemes produced for cinemas, chain-stores and factories. In the last chapter, those undertaken by the Hathern Station Brick and Terracotta Company between 1896 and 1939 are used as a case study; they confirm that manufacturers, architects and clients were all committed to creating a modern and yet decorative architecture, appropriate for new building types and that would appeal to and be comprehensible to the public.

Contrast matching and discrimation in human vision

The aim of this work was to investigate human contrast perception at various contrast levels ranging from detection threshold to suprathreshold levels by using psychophysical techniques. The work consists of two major parts. The first part deals with contrast matching, and the second part deals with contrast discrimination. Contrast matching technique was used to determine when the perceived contrasts of different stimuli were equal. The effects of spatial frequency, stimulus area, image complexity and chromatic contrast on contrast detection thresholds and matches were studied. These factors influenced detection thresholds and perceived contrast at low contrast levels. However, at suprathreshold contrast levels perceived contrast became directly proportional to the physical contrast of the stimulus and almost independent of factors affecting detection thresholds. Contrast discrimination was studied by measuring contrast increment thresholds which indicate the smallest detectable contrast difference. The effects of stimulus area, external spatial image noise and retinal illuminance were studied. The above factors affected contrast detection thresholds and increment thresholds measured at low contrast levels. At high contrast levels, contrast increment thresholds became very similar so that the effect of these factors decreased. Human contrast perception was modelled by regarding the visual system as a simple image processing system. A visual signal is first low-pass filtered by the ocular optics. This is followed by spatial high-pass filtering by the neural visual pathways, and addition of internal neural noise. Detection is mediated by a local matched filter which is a weighted replica of the stimulus whose sampling efficiency decreases with increasing stimulus area and complexity. According to the model, the signals to be compared in a contrast matching task are first transferred through the early image processing stages mentioned above. Then they are filtered by a restoring transfer function which compensates for the low-level filtering and limited spatial integration at high contrast levels. Perceived contrasts of the stimuli are equal when the restored responses to the stimuli are equal. According to the model, the signals to be discriminated in a contrast discrimination task first go through the early image processing stages, after which signal dependent noise is added to the matched filter responses. The decision made by the human brain is based on the comparison between the responses of the matched filters to the stimuli, and the accuracy of the decision is limited by pre- and post-filter noises. The model for human contrast perception could accurately describe the results of contrast matching and discrimination in various conditions.

Clinical decision support system for point of care use: ontology driven design and software implementation

OBJECTIVES: The objective of this research was to design a clinical decision support system (CDSS) that supports heterogeneous clinical decision problems and runs on multiple computing platforms. Meeting this objective required a novel design to create an extendable and easy to maintain clinical CDSS for point of care support. The proposed solution was evaluated in a proof of concept implementation. METHODS: Based on our earlier research with the design of a mobile CDSS for emergency triage we used ontology-driven design to represent essential components of a CDSS. Models of clinical decision problems were derived from the ontology and they were processed into executable applications during runtime. This allowed scaling applications' functionality to the capabilities of computing platforms. A prototype of the system was implemented using the extended client-server architecture and Web services to distribute the functions of the system and to make it operational in limited connectivity conditions. RESULTS: The proposed design provided a common framework that facilitated development of diversified clinical applications running seamlessly on a variety of computing platforms. It was prototyped for two clinical decision problems and settings (triage of acute pain in the emergency department and postoperative management of radical prostatectomy on the hospital ward) and implemented on two computing platforms-desktop and handheld computers. CONCLUSIONS: The requirement of the CDSS heterogeneity was satisfied with ontology-driven design. Processing of application models described with the help of ontological models allowed having a complex system running on multiple computing platforms with different capabilities. Finally, separation of models and runtime components contributed to improved extensibility and maintainability of the system.

The use of erythrocytic and animal models in the study of protein phosphorylation

Phosphorylation processes are common post-transductional mechanisms, by which it is possible to modulate a number of metabolic pathways. Proteins are highly sensitive to phosphorylation, which governs many protein-protein interactions. The enzymatic activity of some protein tyrosine-kinases is under tyrosine-phosphorylation control, as well as several transmembrane anion-fluxes and cation exchanges. In addition, phosphorylation reactions are involved in intra and extra-cellular 'cross-talk' processes. Early studies adopted laboratory animals to study these little known phosphorylation processes. The main difficulty encountered with these animal techniques was obtaining sufficient kinase or phosphatase activity suitable for studying the enzymatic process. Large amounts of biological material from organs, such as the liver and spleen were necessary to conduct such work with protein kinases. Subsequent studies revealed the ubiquity and complexity of phosphorylation processes and techniques evolved from early rat studies to the adaptation of more rewarding in vitro models. These involved human erythrocytes, which are a convenient source both for the enzymes, we investigated and for their substrates. This preliminary work facilitated the development of more advanced phosphorylative models that are based on cell lines. © 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Unravelling the photodegradation mechanisms of a low bandgap polymer by combining experimental and modeling approaches

Large-scale introduction of Organic Solar Cells (OSCs) onto the market is currently limited by their poor stability in light and air, factors present in normal working conditions for these devices. Thus, great efforts have to be undertaken to understand the photodegradation mechanisms of their organic materials in order to find solutions that mitigate these effects. This study reports on the elucidation of the photodegradation mechanisms occurring in a low bandgap polymer, namely, Si-PCPDTBT (poly[(4,4′-bis(2-ethylhexyl)dithieno[3,2-b:2′,3′-d]silole)-2,6-diyl-alt-(4,7-bis(2-thienyl)-2,1,3-benzothiadiazole)-5,5′-diyl]). Complementary analytical techniques (AFM, HS-SPME-GC-MS, UV-vis and IR spectroscopy) have been employed to monitor the modification of the chemical structure of the polymer upon photooxidative aging and the subsequent consequences on its architecture and nanomechanical properties. Furthermore, these different characterization techniques have been combined with a theoretical approach based on quantum chemistry to elucidate the evolution of the polymer alkyl side chains and backbone throughout exposure. Si-PCPDTBT is shown to be more stable against photooxidation than the commonly studied p-type polymers P3HT and PCDTBT, while modeling demonstrated the benefits of using silicon as a bridging atom in terms of photostability. (Figure Presented).

Hierarchical ZnO “rod like” architecture synthesized via reverse micellar route for improved photocatalytic activity

Hierarchical ZnO “rod like” architecture was successfully synthesized via reverse micellar route and characterized by various techniques. The FESEM studies show controlled decomposition of zinc oxalate into ZnO “rod like” architecture at 500 °C with slow heat rate at 1°/min. Interestingly, improved photocatalytic activity was observed for the degradation of Rhodamine B, due to the self assembly of hexagonal nanoparticles of zinc oxide forming hierarchical ZnO “rod like” architecture which can greatly enhance the light utilization rate due to its special architecture and enlarge the specific surface area, providing more reaction sites and promoting mass transfer. More importantly, the reusability studies of this architecture were most economical.

Leadership and the Labour Party:narrative and performance

The relationships between narrative and leadership, between rhetoric and performance, between doctrine and its voicing, are crucial to party politics and are underrated by both practising politicians and scholars. This study analyses the ‘performance of leadership’ in the UK Labour Party, and what this means for a new approach to understanding politics. The main focus of this study is the five-year leadership of Ed Miliband, 2010-2015. The fortunes of the party and the party leadership can be apprehended as a series of performed rhetorical events. A political leader’s persona is a construction that performs – rather like an actor – in the political space. The author identifies and analyses the architecture and the modalities of leadership persona construction and performance in contemporary politics.