Project risk management:a combined analytic hierarchy process and decision tree approach

Time, cost and quality achievements on large-scale construction projects are uncertain because of technological constraints, involvement of many stakeholders, long durations, large capital requirements and improper scope definitions. Projects that are exposed to such an uncertain environment can effectively be managed with the application of risk management throughout the project life cycle. Risk is by nature subjective. However, managing risk subjectively poses the danger of non-achievement of project goals. Moreover, risk analysis of the overall project also poses the danger of developing inappropriate responses. This article demonstrates a quantitative approach to construction risk management through an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and decision tree analysis. The entire project is classified to form a few work packages. With the involvement of project stakeholders, risky work packages are identified. As all the risk factors are identified, their effects are quantified by determining probability (using AHP) and severity (guess estimate). Various alternative responses are generated, listing the cost implications of mitigating the quantified risks. The expected monetary values are derived for each alternative in a decision tree framework and subsequent probability analysis helps to make the right decision in managing risks. In this article, the entire methodology is explained by using a case application of a cross-country petroleum pipeline project in India. The case study demonstrates the project management effectiveness of using AHP and DTA.

Higher-order co-occurrences for exploratory point pattern analysis and decision tree clustering on spatial data

Analyzing geographical patterns by collocating events, objects or their attributes has a long history in surveillance and monitoring, and is particularly applied in environmental contexts, such as ecology or epidemiology. The identification of patterns or structures at some scales can be addressed using spatial statistics, particularly marked point processes methodologies. Classification and regression trees are also related to this goal of finding "patterns" by deducing the hierarchy of influence of variables on a dependent outcome. Such variable selection methods have been applied to spatial data, but, often without explicitly acknowledging the spatial dependence. Many methods routinely used in exploratory point pattern analysis are2nd-order statistics, used in a univariate context, though there is also a wide literature on modelling methods for multivariate point pattern processes. This paper proposes an exploratory approach for multivariate spatial data using higher-order statistics built from co-occurrences of events or marks given by the point processes. A spatial entropy measure, derived from these multinomial distributions of co-occurrences at a given order, constitutes the basis of the proposed exploratory methods. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

Higher-order co-occurrences for exploratory point pattern analysis and decision tree clustering on spatial data

Analyzing geographical patterns by collocating events, objects or their attributes has a long history in surveillance and monitoring, and is particularly applied in environmental contexts, such as ecology or epidemiology. The identification of patterns or structures at some scales can be addressed using spatial statistics, particularly marked point processes methodologies. Classification and regression trees are also related to this goal of finding "patterns" by deducing the hierarchy of influence of variables on a dependent outcome. Such variable selection methods have been applied to spatial data, but, often without explicitly acknowledging the spatial dependence. Many methods routinely used in exploratory point pattern analysis are2nd-order statistics, used in a univariate context, though there is also a wide literature on modelling methods for multivariate point pattern processes. This paper proposes an exploratory approach for multivariate spatial data using higher-order statistics built from co-occurrences of events or marks given by the point processes. A spatial entropy measure, derived from these multinomial distributions of co-occurrences at a given order, constitutes the basis of the proposed exploratory methods. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

Using secondary knowledge to support decision tree classification of retrospective clinical data

Retrospective clinical data presents many challenges for data mining and machine learning. The transcription of patient records from paper charts and subsequent manipulation of data often results in high volumes of noise as well as a loss of other important information. In addition, such datasets often fail to represent expert medical knowledge and reasoning in any explicit manner. In this research we describe applying data mining methods to retrospective clinical data to build a prediction model for asthma exacerbation severity for pediatric patients in the emergency department. Difficulties in building such a model forced us to investigate alternative strategies for analyzing and processing retrospective data. This paper describes this process together with an approach to mining retrospective clinical data by incorporating formalized external expert knowledge (secondary knowledge sources) into the classification task. This knowledge is used to partition the data into a number of coherent sets, where each set is explicitly described in terms of the secondary knowledge source. Instances from each set are then classified in a manner appropriate for the characteristics of the particular set. We present our methodology and outline a set of experiential results that demonstrate some advantages and some limitations of our approach. © 2008 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

Project risk management using multiple criteria decision-making technique and decision tree analysis:a case study of Indian oil refinery

This study proposes an integrated analytical framework for effective management of project risks using combined multiple criteria decision-making technique and decision tree analysis. First, a conceptual risk management model was developed through thorough literature review. The model was then applied through action research on a petroleum oil refinery construction project in the Central part of India in order to demonstrate its effectiveness. Oil refinery construction projects are risky because of technical complexity, resource unavailability, involvement of many stakeholders and strict environmental requirements. Although project risk management has been researched extensively, practical and easily adoptable framework is missing. In the proposed framework, risks are identified using cause and effect diagram, analysed using the analytic hierarchy process and responses are developed using the risk map. Additionally, decision tree analysis allows modelling various options for risk response development and optimises selection of risk mitigating strategy. The proposed risk management framework could be easily adopted and applied in any project and integrated with other project management knowledge areas.

A fuzzy decision tree-based duration model for Standard Yorùbá text-to-speech synthesis

In this paper, we present syllable-based duration modelling in the context of a prosody model for Standard Yorùbá (SY) text-to-speech (TTS) synthesis applications. Our prosody model is conceptualised around a modular holistic framework. This framework is implemented using the Relational Tree (R-Tree) techniques. An important feature of our R-Tree framework is its flexibility in that it facilitates the independent implementation of the different dimensions of prosody, i.e. duration, intonation, and intensity, using different techniques and their subsequent integration. We applied the Fuzzy Decision Tree (FDT) technique to model the duration dimension. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of FDT in duration modelling, we have also developed a Classification And Regression Tree (CART) based duration model using the same speech data. Each of these models was integrated into our R-Tree based prosody model. We performed both quantitative (i.e. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Correlation (Corr)) and qualitative (i.e. intelligibility and naturalness) evaluations on the two duration models. The results show that CART models the training data more accurately than FDT. The FDT model, however, shows a better ability to extrapolate from the training data since it achieved a better accuracy for the test data set. Our qualitative evaluation results show that our FDT model produces synthesised speech that is perceived to be more natural than our CART model. In addition, we also observed that the expressiveness of FDT is much better than that of CART. That is because the representation in FDT is not restricted to a set of piece-wise or discrete constant approximation. We, therefore, conclude that the FDT approach is a practical approach for duration modelling in SY TTS applications. © 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Decision support system for risk management:a case study

This study demonstrates a quantitative approach to construction risk management through analytic hierarchy process and decision tree analysis. All the risk factors are identified, their effects are quantified by determining probability and severity, and various alternative responses are generated with cost implication for mitigating the quantified risks. The expected monetary values are then derived for each alternative in a decision tree framework and subsequent probability analysis aids the decision process in managing risks. The entire methodology is explained through a case application of a cross-country petroleum pipeline project in India and its effectiveness in project management is demonstrated.

Using genetic programming and decision trees for generating structural descriptions of four bar mechanisms

Four bar mechanisms are basic components of many important mechanical devices. The kinematic synthesis of four bar mechanisms is a difficult design problem. A novel method that combines the genetic programming and decision tree learning methods is presented. We give a structural description for the class of mechanisms that produce desired coupler curves. Constructive induction is used to find and characterize feasible regions of the design space. Decision trees constitute the learning engine, and the new features are created by genetic programming.

Project risk management in analytic framework

Risks and uncertainties are part and parcel of any project as projects are planned with many assumptions. Therefore, managing those risks is the key to project success. Although risk is present in all most all projects, large-scale construction projects are most vulnerable. Risk is by nature subjective. However, managing risk subjectively posses the danger of non-achievement of project goals. This study introduces an analytical framework for managing risk in projects. All the risk factors are identified, their effects are analyzed, and alternative responses are derived with cost implication for mitigating the identified risks. A decision-making framework is then formulated using decision tree. The expected monetary values are derived for each alternative. The responses, which require least cost is selected. The entire methodology has been explained through a case study of an oil pipeline project in India and its effectiveness in managing projects has been demonstrated. © INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING.

An illustration of variable precision rough sets model:an analysis of the findings of the UK Monopolies and Mergers Commission

This paper introduces a new technique in the investigation of limited-dependent variable models. This paper illustrates that variable precision rough set theory (VPRS), allied with the use of a modern method of classification, or discretisation of data, can out-perform the more standard approaches that are employed in economics, such as a probit model. These approaches and certain inductive decision tree methods are compared (through a Monte Carlo simulation approach) in the analysis of the decisions reached by the UK Monopolies and Mergers Committee. We show that, particularly in small samples, the VPRS model can improve on more traditional models, both in-sample, and particularly in out-of-sample prediction. A similar improvement in out-of-sample prediction over the decision tree methods is also shown.

A computational model of prosody for Yorùbá text-to-speech synthesis

This work examines prosody modelling for the Standard Yorùbá (SY) language in the context of computer text-to-speech synthesis applications. The thesis of this research is that it is possible to develop a practical prosody model by using appropriate computational tools and techniques which combines acoustic data with an encoding of the phonological and phonetic knowledge provided by experts. Our prosody model is conceptualised around a modular holistic framework. The framework is implemented using the Relational Tree (R-Tree) techniques (Ehrich and Foith, 1976). R-Tree is a sophisticated data structure that provides a multi-dimensional description of a waveform. A Skeletal Tree (S-Tree) is first generated using algorithms based on the tone phonological rules of SY. Subsequent steps update the S-Tree by computing the numerical values of the prosody dimensions. To implement the intonation dimension, fuzzy control rules where developed based on data from native speakers of Yorùbá. The Classification And Regression Tree (CART) and the Fuzzy Decision Tree (FDT) techniques were tested in modelling the duration dimension. The FDT was selected based on its better performance. An important feature of our R-Tree framework is its flexibility in that it facilitates the independent implementation of the different dimensions of prosody, i.e. duration and intonation, using different techniques and their subsequent integration. Our approach provides us with a flexible and extendible model that can also be used to implement, study and explain the theory behind aspects of the phenomena observed in speech prosody.

Classification and contextual enhancement of remotely sensed data

The aims of the project were twofold: 1) To investigate classification procedures for remotely sensed digital data, in order to develop modifications to existing algorithms and propose novel classification procedures; and 2) To investigate and develop algorithms for contextual enhancement of classified imagery in order to increase classification accuracy. The following classifiers were examined: box, decision tree, minimum distance, maximum likelihood. In addition to these the following algorithms were developed during the course of the research: deviant distance, look up table and an automated decision tree classifier using expert systems technology. Clustering techniques for unsupervised classification were also investigated. Contextual enhancements investigated were: mode filters, small area replacement and Wharton's CONAN algorithm. Additionally methods for noise and edge based declassification and contextual reclassification, non-probabilitic relaxation and relaxation based on Markov chain theory were developed. The advantages of per-field classifiers and Geographical Information Systems were investigated. The conclusions presented suggest suitable combinations of classifier and contextual enhancement, given user accuracy requirements and time constraints. These were then tested for validity using a different data set. A brief examination of the utility of the recommended contextual algorithms for reducing the effects of data noise was also carried out.

Lithological mapping of Northwest Argentina with remote sensing data using tonal, textural and contextual features

Tonal, textural and contextual properties are used in manual photointerpretation of remotely sensed data. This study has used these three attributes to produce a lithological map of semi arid northwest Argentina by semi automatic computer classification procedures of remotely sensed data. Three different types of satellite data were investigated, these were LANDSAT MSS, TM and SIR-A imagery. Supervised classification procedures using tonal features only produced poor classification results. LANDSAT MSS produced classification accuracies in the range of 40 to 60%, while accuracies of 50 to 70% were achieved using LANDSAT TM data. The addition of SIR-A data produced increases in the classification accuracy. The increased classification accuracy of TM over the MSS is because of the better discrimination of geological materials afforded by the middle infra red bands of the TM sensor. The maximum likelihood classifier consistently produced classification accuracies 10 to 15% higher than either the minimum distance to means or decision tree classifier, this improved accuracy was obtained at the cost of greatly increased processing time. A new type of classifier the spectral shape classifier, which is computationally as fast as a minimum distance to means classifier is described. However, the results for this classifier were disappointing, being lower in most cases than the minimum distance or decision tree procedures. The classification results using only tonal features were felt to be unacceptably poor, therefore textural attributes were investigated. Texture is an important attribute used by photogeologists to discriminate lithology. In the case of TM data, texture measures were found to increase the classification accuracy by up to 15%. However, in the case of the LANDSAT MSS data the use of texture measures did not provide any significant increase in the accuracy of classification. For TM data, it was found that second order texture, especially the SGLDM based measures, produced highest classification accuracy. Contextual post processing was found to increase classification accuracy and improve the visual appearance of classified output by removing isolated misclassified pixels which tend to clutter classified images. Simple contextual features, such as mode filters were found to out perform more complex features such as gravitational filter or minimal area replacement methods. Generally the larger the size of the filter, the greater the increase in the accuracy. Production rules were used to build a knowledge based system which used tonal and textural features to identify sedimentary lithologies in each of the two test sites. The knowledge based system was able to identify six out of ten lithologies correctly.

A modular holistic approach to prosody modelling for Standard Yorùbá speech synthesis

This paper presents a novel prosody model in the context of computer text-to-speech synthesis applications for tone languages. We have demonstrated its applicability using the Standard Yorùbá (SY) language. Our approach is motivated by the theory that abstract and realised forms of various prosody dimensions should be modelled within a modular and unified framework [Coleman, J.S., 1994. Polysyllabic words in the YorkTalk synthesis system. In: Keating, P.A. (Ed.), Phonological Structure and Forms: Papers in Laboratory Phonology III, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 293–324]. We have implemented this framework using the Relational Tree (R-Tree) technique. R-Tree is a sophisticated data structure for representing a multi-dimensional waveform in the form of a tree. The underlying assumption of this research is that it is possible to develop a practical prosody model by using appropriate computational tools and techniques which combine acoustic data with an encoding of the phonological and phonetic knowledge provided by experts. To implement the intonation dimension, fuzzy logic based rules were developed using speech data from native speakers of Yorùbá. The Fuzzy Decision Tree (FDT) and the Classification and Regression Tree (CART) techniques were tested in modelling the duration dimension. For practical reasons, we have selected the FDT for implementing the duration dimension of our prosody model. To establish the effectiveness of our prosody model, we have also developed a Stem-ML prosody model for SY. We have performed both quantitative and qualitative evaluations on our implemented prosody models. The results suggest that, although the R-Tree model does not predict the numerical speech prosody data as accurately as the Stem-ML model, it produces synthetic speech prosody with better intelligibility and naturalness. The R-Tree model is particularly suitable for speech prosody modelling for languages with limited language resources and expertise, e.g. African languages. Furthermore, the R-Tree model is easy to implement, interpret and analyse.

Habits and attitudes towards retinoscopy and the relative accuracy of dedicated and combined retinoscopes

The studies presented in this thesis were carried out because of a lack of previous research with respect to (a) the habits and attitudes towards retinoscopy and (b) the relative accuracy of dedicated retinoscopes compared to combined types in which changing the bulb allows use in spot or streak mode. An online British survey received responses from 298 optometrists. Decision tree analyses revealed that optometrists working in multiple practices tended to rely less on retinoscopy than those in the independent sector. Only half of the respondents used dynamic retinoscopy. The majority, however, agreed that retinoscopy was an important test. The University attended also influenced the type of retinoscope used and the use of autorefractors. Combined retinoscopes were used most by the more recently qualified optometrists and few agreed that combined retinoscopes were less accurate. A trial indicated that combined and dedicated retinoscopes were equally accurate. Here, 4 optometrists (2 using spot and 2 using streak retinoscopes) tested one eye of 6 patients using combined and dedicated retinoscopes. This trial also demonstrated the utility of the relatively unknown ’15 degrees of freedom’ rule that exploits replication in factorial ANOVA designs to achieve sufficient statistical power when recruitment is limited. An opportunistic international survey explored the use of retinoscopy by 468 practitioners (134 ophthalmologists, 334 optometrists) attending contact related courses. Decision tree analyses found (a) no differences in the habits of optometrists and ophthalmologists, (b) differences in the reliance on retinoscopy and use of dynamic techniques across the participating countries and (c) some evidence that younger practitioners were using static and dynamic retinoscopy least often. In conclusion, this study has revealed infrequent use of static and dynamic retinoscopy by some optometrists, which may be the only means of determining refractive error and evaluating accommodation in patients with communication difficulties.