From marine ecology to crime analysis: improving the detection of serial sexual offences using a taxonomic similarity measure

Jaccard has been the choice similarity metric in ecology and forensic psychology for comparison of sites or offences, by species or behaviour. This paper applies a more powerful hierarchical measure - taxonomic similarity (s), recently developed in marine ecology - to the task of behaviourally linking serial crime. Forensic case linkage attempts to identify behaviourally similar offences committed by the same unknown perpetrator (called linked offences). s considers progressively higher-level taxa, such that two sites show some similarity even without shared species. We apply this index by analysing 55 specific offence behaviours classified hierarchically. The behaviours are taken from 16 sexual offences by seven juveniles where each offender committed two or more offences. We demonstrate that both Jaccard and s show linked offences to be significantly more similar than unlinked offences. With up to 20% of the specific behaviours removed in simulations, s is equally or more effective at distinguishing linked offences than where Jaccard uses a full data set. Moreover, s retains significant difference between linked and unlinked pairs, with up to 50% of the specific behaviours removed. As police decision-making often depends upon incomplete data, s has clear advantages and its application may extend to other crime types. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Serial correlation in the returns of UK capitalization based portfolios

This article examines whether UK portfolio returns are time varying so that expected returns follow an AR(1) process as proposed by Conrad and Kaul for the USA. It explores this hypothesis for four portfolios that have been formed on the basis of market capitalization. The portfolio returns are modelled using a kalman filter signal extraction model in which the unobservable expected return is the state variable and is allowed to evolve as a stationary first order autoregressive process. It finds that this model is a good representation of returns and can account for most of the autocorrelation present in observed portfolio returns. This study concludes that UK portfolio returns are time varying and the nature of the time variation appears to introduce a substantial amount of autocorrelation to portfolio returns. Like Conrad and Kaul if finds a link between the extent to which portfolio returns are time varying and the size of firms within a portfolio but not the monotonic one found for the USA.

Explaining volatility and serial correlation in opening and closing returns:a study of the FT-30 components

In this paper the performance of opening and closing returns, for the components of the FT-30 will be studied. It will be shown that for these stocks opening returns have higher volatility and a greater tendency towards negative serial correlation than closing returns. Unlike previous studies this contrasting performance cannot solely be attributed to differences in the trading mechanism across the trading day. All the stocks used in our sample trade thought the day using a uniform trading mechanism. In this paper, we suggest that it is differences in the speed that closing and opening returns adjust to new information that causes differences in return performance. By estimating the Amihud and Mendelson (1987) [Amihud, Yakov, & Mendelson, Haim (1987). Trading mechanisms and stock returns: An empirical investigation, Journal of Finance, 62 533-553.] partial adjustment model with noise, we show that opening returns have a tendency towards over-reaction, while closing returns have a tendency towards under-reaction. We suggest that it is these differences that cause a substantial proportion (although not all) of the asymmetric return patterns associated with opening and closing returns. © 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Technological diversification within UK’s small serial innovators

This paper investigates the determinants of technological diversification among UK’s small serial innovators (SSIs). Using a longitudinal study of 339 UK-based small businesses accounting for almost 7000 patents between 1990 and 2006, this study constitutes the first empirical examination of technological diversification among SMEs in the literature. Results demonstrate that technological diversification is not solely a large firm activity, challenging the dominant view that innovative SMEs are extremely focused and specialised players with little technological diversification. Our findings suggest a nonlinear (i.e. inverse-U-shaped) relationship between the level of technological opportunities in the environment and the SSIs’ degree of technological diversification. This points to a trade-off between processes of exploration and exploitation across increasingly volatile technology regimes. The paper also demonstrates that small firms with impactful innovations focus their innovative activity around similar technological capabilities while firms that have introduced platform technologies in the past are more likely to engage in technological diversification.

Characterisation of protein stability in rod-insert vaginal rings

A major goal in vaccine development is elimination of the 'cold chain', the transport and storage system for maintenance and distribution of the vaccine product. This is particularly pertinent to liquid formulation of vaccines. We have previously described the rod-insert vaginal ring (RiR) device, comprising an elastomeric body into which are inserted lyophilised, rod-shaped, solid drug dosage forms, and having potential for sustained mucosal delivery of biomacromolecules, such as HIV envelope protein-based vaccine candidates. Given the solid, lyophilised nature of these insert dosage forms, we hypothesised that antigen stability may be significantly increased compared with more conventional solubilised vaginal gel format. In this study, we prepared and tested vaginal ring devices fitted with lyophilised rod inserts containing the model antigen bovine serum albumin (BSA). Both the RiRs and the gels that were freeze-dried to prepare the inserts were evaluated for BSA stability using PAGE, turbidimetry, microbial load, MALDI-TOF and qualitative precipitate solubility measurements. When stored at 4°C, but not when stored at 40°C/75% RH, the RiR formulation offered protection against structural and conformational changes to BSA. The insert also retained matrix integrity and release characteristics. The results demonstrate that lypophilised gels can provide relative protection against degradation at lower temperatures compared to semi-solid gels. The major mechanism of degradation at 40°C/75% RH was shown to be protein aggregation. Finally, in a preliminary study, we found that addition of trehalose to the formulation significantly reduces the rate of BSA degradation compared to the original formulation when stored at 40°C/75% RH. Establishing the mechanism of degradation, and finding that degradation is decelerated in the presence of trehalose, will help inform further development of RiRs specifically and polymer based freeze-dried systems in general.

Sustained release of the CCR5 inhibitors CMPD167 and maraviroc from vaginal rings in rhesus macaques

Antiretroviral entry inhibitors are now being considered as vaginally administered microbicide candidates for the prevention of the sexual transmission of human immunodeficiency virus. Previous studies testing the entry inhibitors maraviroc and CMPD167 in aqueous gel formulations showed efficacy in the macaque challenge model, although protection was highly dependent on the time period between initial gel application and subsequent challenge. In this paper, we describe the sustained release of maraviroc and CMPD167 from matrix-type silicone elastomer vaginal rings both in vitro and in vivo. Both inhibitors were released continuously during 28 days from rings in vitro at rates of 100 to 2,500 µg/day. In 28-day pharmacokinetic studies in rhesus macaques, the compounds were measured in the vaginal fluid and vaginal tissue; steady-state fluid concentrations were ~10(6)-fold greater than the 50% inhibitory concentrations (IC(50)s) for simian human immunodeficiency virus 162P3 inhibition in macaque lymphocytes in vitro. Plasma concentrations for both compounds were very low. The pretreatment of macaques with Depo-Provera (DP), which is commonly used in macaque challenge studies, was shown to significantly modify the biodistribution of the inhibitors but not the overall amount released. Vaginal fluid and tissue concentrations were significantly decreased while plasma levels increased with DP pretreatment. These observations have implications for designing macaque challenge experiments and also for ring performance during the human female menstrual cycle.

To link or not to link: a test of the case linkage principles using serial car theft data

The purpose of the present study is to test the case linkage principles of behavioural consistency and behavioural distinctiveness using serial vehicle theft data. Data from 386 solved vehicle thefts committed by 193 offenders were analysed using Jaccard's, regression and Receiver Operating Characteristic analyses to determine whether objectively observable aspects of crime scene behaviour could be used to distinguish crimes committed by the same offender from those committed by different offenders. The findings indicate that spatial behaviour, specifically the distance between theft locations and between dump locations, is a highly consistent and distinctive aspect of vehicle theft behaviour; thus, intercrime and interdump distance represent the most useful aspects of vehicle theft for the purpose of case linkage analysis. The findings have theoretical and practical implications for understanding of criminal behaviour and for the development of decision-support tools to assist police investigation and apprehension of serial vehicle theft offenders.

The use of lichen growth rings in lichenometry: some preliminary findings

Certain species of crustose lichens have concentrically zoned margins which probably represent yearly growth rings. These marginal growth rings offer an alternative method of studying annual growth fluctuations, establishing growth rate-size curves, and determining the age of thalli for certain crustose species. Hence, marginal growth rings represent a potentially valuable, unexploited, tool in lichenometry. In a preliminary study, we measured the widths of the successive marginal rings in 25 thalli of Ochrolechia parella (L.) Massal., growing at a maritime site in north Wales. Mean ring widths of all thalli varied from a minimum of 1.02 mm (the outermost ring) to a maximum of 2.06 mm (the third ring from the margin). There is some suggestion that marginal ring width and thallus size are positively correlated; and hence that growth rates increase in larger thalli in this small population. In a further study on recently exposed bedrock adjacent to Breidalon, SE Iceland, we examined the potential for using marginal growth rings to estimate thallus age of a lichen tentatively identified as a Rhizocarpon (possibly R. concentricum (Davies) Beltram.) and thus confirm the timing of surface exposure (c. 50 years). Collectively, these results suggest: 1) the measurement of marginal rings is a possible alternative method of studying the growth of crustose lichens; 2) O. parella may grow differently to other crustose species, exhibiting a rapidly increasing radial growth rate in thalli >40 mm; 3) where lichens with marginal rings grow on recently exposed surfaces (<60 yrs), minimum age estimates can be made using growth rings as an in situ indication of lichen growth rate; 4) it is suggested that this phenomenon could provide a valuable, previously unexploited, in situ lichenometric-dating tool in areas lacking calibration control.

Coherence imaging by use of a Newton rings sampling function

We show that, with suitable optics in the arm of a Michelson interferometer, orthogonal galvo-scanning mirrors build a sampling function in the form of Newton rings when the two interferometer arms are matched. Using a low-coherence source, one can obtain transversal depth-resolved images. A fast display procedure using a storage oscilloscope was devised based on this method.

Reduced attentional capacity, but normal processing speed and shifting of attention in developmental dyslexia: evidence from a serial task

We report the performance of a group of adult dyslexics and matched controls in an array-matching task where two strings of either consonants or symbols are presented side by side and have to be judged to be the same or different. The arrays may differ either in the order or identity of two adjacent characters. This task does not require naming – which has been argued to be the cause of dyslexics’ difficulty in processing visual arrays – but, instead, has a strong serial component as demonstrated by the fact that, in both groups, Reaction times (RTs) increase monotonically with position of a mismatch. The dyslexics are clearly impaired in all conditions and performance in the identity conditions predicts performance across orthographic tasks even after age, performance IQ and phonology are partialled out. Moreover, the shapes of serial position curves are revealing of the underlying impairment. In the dyslexics, RTs increase with position at the same rate as in the controls (lines are parallel) ruling out reduced processing speed or difficulties in shifting attention. Instead, error rates show a catastrophic increase for positions which are either searched later or more subject to interference. These results are consistent with a reduction in the attentional capacity needed in a serial task to bind together identity and positional information. This capacity is best seen as a reduction in the number of spotlights into which attention can be split to process information at different locations rather than as a more generic reduction of resources which would also affect processing the details of single objects.

Coherence imaging by use of a Newton rings sampling function

We show that, with suitable optics in the arm of a Michelson interferometer, orthogonal galvo-scanning mirrors build a sampling function in the form of Newton rings when the two interferometer arms are matched. Using a low-coherence source, one can obtain transversal depth-resolved images. A fast display procedure using a storage oscilloscope was devised based on this method.

Serial dark soliton for 100-Gb/s applications

We analyze the performance through numerical simulations of a new modulation format: serial dark soliton (SDS) for wide-area 100-Gb/s applications. We compare the performance of the SDS with conventional dark soliton, amplitude-modulation phase-shift keying (also known as duobinary), nonreturn-to-zero, and return-to-zero modulation formats, when subjected to typical wide-area-network impairments. We show that the SDS has a strong chromatic dispersion and polarization-mode-dispersion tolerance, while maintaining a compact spectrum suitable for strong filtering requirement in ultradense wavelength-division-multiplexing applications. The SDS can be generated using commercially available components for 40-Gb/s applications and is cost efficient when compared with other 100-Gb/s electrical-time-division-multiplexing systems.

Serial OTDM for 100 Gbit-Ethernet applications

A novel transmitter for 100 Gbit-Ethernet applications is proposed, based on the serial cascade of two 50 Gbit/s inverse-return-to-zero (also known as dark soliton) transmitters based on Mach-Zehnder modulators. The proposed transmitter and demultiplexer system uses commercially available components optimised for 40 Gbit/s applications. A 2.9 dB penalty at 100 Gbit/s is obtained using a single-stage OTDM demultiplexer and a preamplified receiver.

Serial correlation in the returns of UK capitalization based portfolios

This article examines whether UK portfolio returns are time varying so that expected returns follow an AR(1) process as proposed by Conrad and Kaul for the USA. It explores this hypothesis for four portfolios that have been formed on the basis of market capitalization. The portfolio returns are modelled using a kalman filter signal extraction model in which the unobservable expected return is the state variable and is allowed to evolve as a stationary first order autoregressive process. It finds that this model is a good representation of returns and can account for most of the autocorrelation present in observed portfolio returns. This study concludes that UK portfolio returns are time varying and the nature of the time variation appears to introduce a substantial amount of autocorrelation to portfolio returns. Like Conrad and Kaul if finds a link between the extent to which portfolio returns are time varying and the size of firms within a portfolio but not the monotonic one found for the USA. © 2004 Taylor and Francis Ltd.