Inverse forecasting:a new approach for predictive modelling

In the last two decades there have been substantial developments in the mathematical theory of inverse optimization problems, and their applications have expanded greatly. In parallel, time series analysis and forecasting have become increasingly important in various fields of research such as data mining, economics, business, engineering, medicine, politics, and many others. Despite the large uses of linear programming in forecasting models there is no a single application of inverse optimization reported in the forecasting literature when the time series data is available. Thus the goal of this paper is to introduce inverse optimization into forecasting field, and to provide a streamlined approach to time series analysis and forecasting using inverse linear programming. An application has been used to demonstrate the use of inverse forecasting developed in this study. © 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A verifiable solution to the MEG inverse problem

Magnetoencephalography (MEG) is a non-invasive brain imaging technique with the potential for very high temporal and spatial resolution of neuronal activity. The main stumbling block for the technique has been that the estimation of a neuronal current distribution, based on sensor data outside the head, is an inverse problem with an infinity of possible solutions. Many inversion techniques exist, all using different a-priori assumptions in order to reduce the number of possible solutions. Although all techniques can be thoroughly tested in simulation, implicit in the simulations are the experimenter's own assumptions about realistic brain function. To date, the only way to test the validity of inversions based on real MEG data has been through direct surgical validation, or through comparison with invasive primate data. In this work, we constructed a null hypothesis that the reconstruction of neuronal activity contains no information on the distribution of the cortical grey matter. To test this, we repeatedly compared rotated sections of grey matter with a beamformer estimate of neuronal activity to generate a distribution of mutual information values. The significance of the comparison between the un-rotated anatomical information and the electrical estimate was subsequently assessed against this distribution. We found that there was significant (P < 0.05) anatomical information contained in the beamformer images across a number of frequency bands. Based on the limited data presented here, we can say that the assumptions behind the beamformer algorithm are not unreasonable for the visual-motor task investigated.

Signal power excursion and pump efficiency in quasi-lossless ultra-long Raman laser links

Performance optimisation of ultra-long Raman laser links is studied theoretically and experimentally. We observe that it is possible to reduce signal power excursion by adjusting FBG reflectivity without compromising pump efficiency.

The limits of open innovation:openness and (quasi-)markets in the organization of innovation

Recent studies have stressed the importance of ‘open innovation’ as a means of enhancing innovation performance. The essence of the open innovation model is to take advantage of external as well as internal knowledge sources in developing and commercialising innovation, so avoiding an excessively narrow internal focus in a key area of corporate activity. Although the external aspect of open innovation is often stressed, another key aspect involves maximising the flow of ideas and knowledge from different sources within the firm, for example through knowledge sharing via the use of cross-functional teams. A fully open innovation approach would therefore combine both aspects i.e. cross-functional teams with boundary-spanning knowledge linkages. This suggests that there should be complementarities between the use cross-functional teams with boundary-spanning knowledge linkages i.e. the returns to implementing open innovation in one innovation activity is should be greater if open innovation is already in place in another innovation activity. However, our findings – based on a large sample of UK and German manufacturing plants – do not support this view. Our results suggest that in practice the benefits envisaged in the open innovation model are not generally achievable by the majority of plants, and that instead the adoption of open innovation across the whole innovation process is likely to reduce innovation outputs. Our results provide some guidance on the type of activities where the adoption of a market-based governance structure such as open innovation may be most valuable. This is likely to be in innovation activities where search is deterministic, activities are separable, and where the required level of knowledge sharing is correspondingly moderate – in other words those activities which are more routinized. For this type of activity market-based governance mechanisms (i.e. open innovation) may well be more efficient than hierarchical governance structures. For other innovation activities where outcomes are more uncertain and unpredictable and the risks of knowledge exchange hazards are greater, quasi-market based governance structures such as open innovation are likely to be subject to rapidly diminishing returns in terms of innovation outputs.

42.6Gb/s RZ-ASK transmission over 2500km using quasi-lossless transmission spans

Here, for the first time, we experimentally demonstrate optical data transmission through such quasi-lossless fibre spans, which provide an entirely different nonlinear propagation regime to conventionally EDFA/Raman amplified systems. We demonstrate 42.6 Gb/s transmission over 2500 km of SMF-28 with an 82 km span length, and investigate the optimisation of the system in terms of launch power and nonlinear tolerance. Our results show the first ever data transmission experiment using an ultra-long Raman laser to provide quasi-lossless conditions in the transmission fibre. For a span length of 82 km we have shown 2500 km transmission over SMF-28 fibre at 42.6 Gb/s. Our quasi-lossless configuration had 6 dB lower optimum power and improved nonlinear tolerance compared with a conventional EDFA only system.

Optical phase conjugation for dispersion and nonlinearity compensation in a 1600km, 42 Gb/s quasi-lossless system

We experimentally investigate a long-distance, high-bit-rate transmission system which combines optical-phase-conjugation with quasi-lossless amplification. Comparison with a conventional system configuration demonstrates the possibility of obtaining both dispersion compensation and improved nonlinear tolerance using proposed scheme.

Bayesian analysis of the scatterometer wind retrieval inverse problem:Some new approaches

The retrieval of wind vectors from satellite scatterometer observations is a non-linear inverse problem. A common approach to solving inverse problems is to adopt a Bayesian framework and to infer the posterior distribution of the parameters of interest given the observations by using a likelihood model relating the observations to the parameters, and a prior distribution over the parameters. We show how Gaussian process priors can be used efficiently with a variety of likelihood models, using local forward (observation) models and direct inverse models for the scatterometer. We present an enhanced Markov chain Monte Carlo method to sample from the resulting multimodal posterior distribution. We go on to show how the computational complexity of the inference can be controlled by using a sparse, sequential Bayes algorithm for estimation with Gaussian processes. This helps to overcome the most serious barrier to the use of probabilistic, Gaussian process methods in remote sensing inverse problems, which is the prohibitively large size of the data sets. We contrast the sampling results with the approximations that are found by using the sparse, sequential Bayes algorithm.

Quasi-lossless optical links for broad-band transmission and data processing

We present the first experimental implementation of a recently designed quasi-lossless fiber span with strongly reduced signal power excursion. The resulting fiber waveguide medium can be advantageously used both in lightwave communications and in all-optical nonlinear data processing.

Quasi-lossless spans for broadband transmission and data processing

We present the first experimental implementation of a recently designed quasi-lossless fibre span with strongly reduced signal power excursion. The resulting fibre waveguide medium can be advantageously used both in lightwave communications and in all-optical nonlinear data processing.

Performance optimization of ultra-long Raman laser cavities for quasi-lossless transmission links

Performance optimization of ultra-long Raman laser links is studied theoretically and experimentally. We demonstrate that it is possible to reduce the signal power excursion by adjusting FBG reflectivity without compromising pump efficiency. Furthermore, we experimentally demonstrate an OSNR improvement of 4.3 dB in our system after 4000 km transmission by switching from conventional erbium-doped fibre amplifiers to quasi-lossless transmission.

Design of a flat-top fiber Bragg filter via quasi-random modulation of the refractive index

The statistics of the reflection spectrum of a short-correlated disordered fiber Bragg grating are studied. The averaged spectrum appears to be flat inside the bandgap and has significantly suppressed sidelobes compared to the uniform grating of the same bandwidth. This is due to the Anderson localization of the modes of a disordered grating. This observation prompts a new algorithm for designing passband reflection gratings. Using the stochastic invariant imbedding approach it is possible to obtain the probability distribution function for the random reflection coefficient inside the bandgap and obtain both the variance of the averaged reflectivity as well as the distribution of the time delay of the grating.

All-optical passive quasi-regeneration in transoceanic 40 Gbit/s return-to-zero transmission systems with strong dispersion management

A method of all-optical passive quasi-regeneration in transoceanic 40 Gbit/s return-to-zero transmission systems with strong dispersion management was described. The use of in-line nonlinear optical loop mirrors (NOLM) by the method was demonstrated. The quasi-regeneration of signals performed by NOLMs was found to improve the systems's performance.

Capability development in Chinese manufacturing:a quasi-biotic perspective of knowledge evolution

A quasi-biotic model of knowledge evolution has been applied to manufacturing technology capability development which includes product design and development and manufacturing process/workflow improvement. The concepts of “knowledge genes” and “knowledge body” are introduced to explain the evolution of technological capability. It is shown that knowledge development within the enterprise happens as a result of interactions between an enterprise’s internal knowledge and that acquired from external sources catalysed by: (a) internal mechanisms, recources and incentives, and (b) actions and policies of external agencies. A matrix specifying factors contributing to knowledge development and types of manufacturing capabilities (product design, equipment development or use, and workflow) is developed to explain technological knowledge development. The case studies of Tianjin Pipe Corporation (TPCO) and Tianjin Tianduan Press Co. are presented to illustrate the application of the matrix.

A method of fundamental solutions for the one-dimensional inverse Stefan problem

We investigate an application of the method of fundamental solutions (MFS) to the one-dimensional inverse Stefan problem for the heat equation by extending the MFS proposed in [5] for the one-dimensional direct Stefan problem. The sources are placed outside the space domain of interest and in the time interval (-T, T). Theoretical properties of the method, as well as numerical investigations, are included, showing that accurate and stable results can be obtained efficiently with small computational cost.