Point-wise confidence interval estimation by neural networks: A comparative study based on automotive engine calibration.

In developing neural network techniques for real world applications it is still very rare to see estimates of confidence placed on the neural network predictions. This is a major deficiency, especially in safety-critical systems. In this paper we explore three distinct methods of producing point-wise confidence intervals using neural networks. We compare and contrast Bayesian, Gaussian Process and Predictive error bars evaluated on real data. The problem domain is concerned with the calibration of a real automotive engine management system for both air-fuel ratio determination and on-line ignition timing. This problem requires real-time control and is a good candidate for exploring the use of confidence predictions due to its safety-critical nature.

Role of organizational identification, on Implicit Leadership Theories ILTs, transformational leadership and work attitudes

This investigation explores the effects of organizational identification on employees’ Implicit Leadership Theories (ILTs) and the perception of leader behaviors. The study involved a cross-sectional survey of 439 employees from seven companies based in South Wales. Respondents completed two questionnaires that measured their organizational identification, ILTs, recognition of ILTs in their manager, manager’s leadership behaviors (transactional and transformational), and psychological reactions (job satisfaction, well-being, and turnover intentions). The level of organizational identification did not affect the prototype of an ideal work-based leader. However, high organizational identification was associated with more positive ratings on the actual manager, the extent to which their manager displayed transactional and transformational behaviors, and with more positive psychological reactions to work. Employees high in organizational identification based their judgments of their leader’s transactional and transformational behaviors on the extent to which they recognized their leader as possessing leadership traits. However, those low on organizational identification allowed their prototype of their ideal leader to bias their judgment of their actual leader’s behavior. Finally, there was partial support for the augmenting hypothesis (that tranformational leadership would predict additional variance in psychological outcomes above that predicted by transactional leadership) for those high in organizational identification but not for those low in organizational identification.

Workplace gender discrimination and the implicit association test

Women are under-represented at senior levels within organisations. They also fareless well than their male counterparts in reward and career opportunities. Attitudestoward women in the workplace are thought to underpin these disparities and moreand more organisations are introducing attitude measures into diversity and inclusioninitiatives to: 1) raise awareness amongst employees of implicit attitudes, 2) educateemployees on how these attitudes can influence behaviour and 3) re-measure theattitude after an intervention to assess whether the attitude has changed. TheImplicit Association Test (IAT: Greenwald, et al., 1998) is the most popular tool usedto assess attitudes. However, questions over the predictive validity of the measurehave been raised and the evidence for the real world impact of the implicit attitudes islimited (Blanton et al., 2009; Landy, 2008; Tetlock & Mitchell, 2009; Wax, 2010).Whilst there is growing research in the area of race, little research has explored theability of the IAT to predict gender discrimination. This thesis addresses thisimportant gap in the literature. Three empirical studies were conducted. The firststudy explored whether gender IATs were predictive of personnel decisions thatfavour men and whether affect- and cognition-based gender IATs were equallypredictive of behaviour. The second two studies explored the predictive validity ofthe IAT in comparison to an explicit measure of one type of gender attitude,benevolent sexism. The results revealed implicit gender attitudes were stronglyheld. However, they did not consistently predict behaviour across the studies.Overall, the results suggest that the IAT may only predict workplace genderdiscrimination in a very select set of circumstances. The attitude component that anIAT assesses, the personnel decision and participant demographics all impact thepredictive validity of the tool. The interplay between the IAT and behaviour thereforeappears to be more complex than is assumed.

Implicit leadership theories in applied settings:factor structure, generalizability, and stability over time

The present empirical investigation had a 3-fold purpose: (a) to cross-validate L. R. Offermann, J. K. Kennedy, and P. W. Wirtz's (1994) scale of Implicit Leadership Theories (ILTs) in several organizational settings and to further provide a shorter scale of ILTs in organizations; (b) to assess the generalizability of ILTs across different employee groups, and (c) to evaluate ILTs' change over time. Two independent samples were used for the scale validation (N 1 = 500 and N 2 = 439). A 6-factor structure (Sensitivity, Intelligence, Dedication, Dynamism, Tyranny, and Masculinity) was found to most accurately represent ILTs in organizational settings. Regarding the generalizability of ILTs, although the 6-factor structure was consistent across different employee groups, there was only partial support for total factorial invariance. Finally, evaluation of gamma, beta, and alpha change provided support for ILTs' stability over time.

Statnote 17: using a regression line for prediction and calibration

Two types of prediction problem can be solved using a regression line viz., prediction of the ‘population’ regression line at the point ‘x’ and prediction of an ‘individual’ new member of the population ‘y1’ for which ‘x1’ has been measured. The second problem is probably the most commonly encountered and the most relevant to calibration studies. A regression line is likely to be most useful for calibration if the range of values of the X variable is large, if there is a good representation of the ‘x,y’ values across the range of X, and if several estimates of ‘y’ are made at each ‘x’. It is poor statistical practice to use a regression line for calibration or prediction beyond the limits of the data.

The effective use of implicit parallelism through the use of an object-oriented programming language

This thesis explores translating well-written sequential programs in a subset of the Eiffel programming language - without syntactic or semantic extensions - into parallelised programs for execution on a distributed architecture. The main focus is on constructing two object-oriented models: a theoretical self-contained model of concurrency which enables a simplified second model for implementing the compiling process. There is a further presentation of principles that, if followed, maximise the potential levels of parallelism. Model of Concurrency. The concurrency model is designed to be a straightforward target for mapping sequential programs onto, thus making them parallel. It aids the compilation process by providing a high level of abstraction, including a useful model of parallel behaviour which enables easy incorporation of message interchange, locking, and synchronization of objects. Further, the model is sufficient such that a compiler can and has been practically built. Model of Compilation. The compilation-model's structure is based upon an object-oriented view of grammar descriptions and capitalises on both a recursive-descent style of processing and abstract syntax trees to perform the parsing. A composite-object view with an attribute grammar style of processing is used to extract sufficient semantic information for the parallelisation (i.e. code-generation) phase. Programming Principles. The set of principles presented are based upon information hiding, sharing and containment of objects and the dividing up of methods on the basis of a command/query division. When followed, the level of potential parallelism within the presented concurrency model is maximised. Further, these principles naturally arise from good programming practice. Summary. In summary this thesis shows that it is possible to compile well-written programs, written in a subset of Eiffel, into parallel programs without any syntactic additions or semantic alterations to Eiffel: i.e. no parallel primitives are added, and the parallel program is modelled to execute with equivalent semantics to the sequential version. If the programming principles are followed, a parallelised program achieves the maximum level of potential parallelisation within the concurrency model.

An investigation into the nature and consequences of teachers' implicit philosophies of science

The aims of this study were to investigate the beliefs concerning the philosophy of science held by practising science teachers and to relate those beliefs to their pupils' understanding of the philosophy of science. Three philosophies of science, differing in the way they relate experimental work to other parts of the scientific enterprise, are described. By the use of questionnaire techniques, teachers of four extreme types were identified. These are: the H type or hypothetico-deductivist teacher, who sees experiments as potential falsifiers of hypotheses or of logical deductions from them; the I type or inductivist teacher, who regards experiments mainly as a way of increasing the range of observations available for recording before patterns are noted and inductive generalisation is carried out; the V type or verificationist teacher, who expects experiments to provide proof and to demonstrate the truth or accuracy of scientific statements; and the 0 type, who has no discernible philosophical beliefs about the nature of science or its methodology. Following interviews of selected teachers to check their responses to the questionnaire and to determine their normal teaching methods, an experiment was organised in which parallel groups were given H, I and V type teaching in the normal school situation during most of one academic year. Using pre-test and post-test scores on a specially developed test of pupil understanding of the philosophy of science, it was shown that pupils were positively affected by their teacher's implied philosophy of science. There was also some indication that V type teaching improved marks obtained in school science examinations, but appeared to discourage the more able from continuing the study of science. Effects were also noted on vocabulary used by pupils to describe scientists and their activities.

The development of calibration and adaptive filtering procedures for neuromagnetic studies of human visual function

This thesis first considers the calibration and signal processing requirements of a neuromagnetometer for the measurement of human visual function. Gradiometer calibration using straight wire grids is examined and optimal grid configurations determined, given realistic constructional tolerances. Simulations show that for gradiometer balance of 1:104 and wire spacing error of 0.25mm the achievable calibration accuracy of gain is 0.3%, of position is 0.3mm and of orientation is 0.6°. Practical results with a 19-channel 2nd-order gradiometer based system exceed this performance. The real-time application of adaptive reference noise cancellation filtering to running-average evoked response data is examined. In the steady state, the filter can be assumed to be driven by a non-stationary step input arising at epoch boundaries. Based on empirical measures of this driving step an optimal progression for the filter time constant is proposed which improves upon fixed time constant filter performance. The incorporation of the time-derivatives of the reference channels was found to improve the performance of the adaptive filtering algorithm by 15-20% for unaveraged data, falling to 5% with averaging. The thesis concludes with a neuromagnetic investigation of evoked cortical responses to chromatic and luminance grating stimuli. The global magnetic field power of evoked responses to the onset of sinusoidal gratings was shown to have distinct chromatic and luminance sensitive components. Analysis of the results, using a single equivalent current dipole model, shows that these components arise from activity within two distinct cortical locations. Co-registration of the resulting current source localisations with MRI shows a chromatically responsive area lying along the midline within the calcarine fissure, possibly extending onto the lingual and cuneal gyri. It is postulated that this area is the human homologue of the primate cortical area V4.

From ideal to real:a longitudinal study of the role of implicit leadership theories on leader-member exchanges and employee outcomes

The results of the present longitudinal study demonstrate the importance of implicit leadership theories (ILTs) for the quality of leader-member exchanges (LMX) and employees' organizational commitment, job satisfaction, and well-being. Results based on a sample of 439 employees who completed the study questionnaires at 2 time points showed that the closer employees perceived their actual manager's profile to be to the ILTs they endorsed, the better the quality of LMX. Results also indicated that the implicit-explicit leadership traits difference had indirect effects on employee attitudes and well-being. These findings were consistent across employee groups that differed in terms of job demand and the duration of manager-employee relation, but not in terms of motivation. Furthermore, crossed-lagged modeling analyses of the longitudinal data explored the possibility of reciprocal effects between implicit-explicit leadership traits difference and LMX and provided support for the initially hypothesized direction of causal effects.

Fabrication of high quality optical coherence tomography (OCT) calibration artefacts using femtosecond inscription

Optical coherence tomography (OCT) is a non-invasive three-dimensional imaging system that is capable of producing high resolution in-vivo images. OCT is approved for use in clinical trials in Japan, USA and Europe. For OCT to be used effectively in a clinical diagnosis, a method of standardisation is required to assess the performance across different systems. This standardisation can be implemented using highly accurate and reproducible artefacts for calibration at both installation and throughout the lifetime of a system. Femtosecond lasers can write highly reproducible and highly localised micro-structured calibration artefacts within a transparent media. We report on the fabrication of high quality OCT calibration artefacts in fused silica using a femtosecond laser. The calibration artefacts were written in fused silica due to its high purity and ability to withstand high energy femtosecond pulses. An Amplitude Systemes s-Pulse Yb:YAG femtosecond laser with an operating wavelength of 1026 nm was used to inscribe three dimensional patterns within the highly optically transmissive substrate. Four unique artefacts have been designed to measure a wide variety of parameters, including the points spread function (PSF), modulation transfer function (MTF), sensitivity, distortion and resolution - key parameters which define the performance of the OCT. The calibration artefacts have been characterised using an optical microscope and tested on a swept source OCT. The results demonstrate that the femtosecond laser inscribed artefacts have the potential of quantitatively and qualitatively validating the performance of any OCT system.

Three-dimensional calibration targets for optical coherence tomography

The recent expansion of clinical applications for optical coherence tomography (OCT) is driving the development of approaches for consistent image acquisition. There is a simultaneous need for time-stable, easy-to-use imaging targets for calibration and standardization of OCT devices. We present calibration targets consisting of three-dimensional structures etched into nanoparticle-embedded resin. Spherical iron oxide nanoparticles with a predominant particle diameter of 400 nm were homogeneously dispersed in a two part polyurethane resin and allowed to harden overnight. These samples were then etched using a precision micromachining femtosecond laser with a center wavelength of 1026 nm, 100kHz repetition rate and 450 fs pulse duration. A series of lines in depth were etched, varying the percentage of inscription energy and speed of the translation stage moving the target with respect to the laser. Samples were imaged with a dual wavelength spectral-domain OCT system and point-spread function of nanoparticles within the target was measured.

Measurement of implicit leadership theories and their effect on leadership processes and outcomes

The leadership categorisation theory suggests that followers rely on a hierarchical cognitive structure in perceiving leaders and the leadership process, which consists of three levels; superordinate, basic and subordinate. The predominant view is that followers rely on Implicit Leadership Theories (ILTs) at the basic level in making judgments about managers. The thesis examines whether this presumption is true by proposing and testing two competing conceptualisations; namely the congruence between the basic level ILTs (general leader) and actual manager perceptions, and subordinate level ILTs (job-specific leader) and actual manager. The conceptualisation at the job-specific level builds on context-related assertions of the ILT explanatory models: leadership categorisation, information processing and connectionist network theories. Further, the thesis addresses the effects of ILT congruence at the group level. The hypothesised model suggests that Leader-Member Exchange (LMX) will act as a mediator between ILT congruence and outcomes. Three studies examined the proposed model. The first was cross-sectional with 175 students reporting on work experience during a 1-year industrial placement. The second was longitudinal and had a sample of 343 students engaging in a business simulation in groups with formal leadership. The final study was a cross-sectional survey in several organisations with a sample of 178. A novel approach was taken to congruence analysis; the hypothesised models were tested using Latent Congruence Modelling (LCM), which accounts for measurement error and overcomes the majority of limitations of traditional approaches. The first two studies confirm the traditional theorised view that employees rely on basic-level ILTs in making judgments about their managers with important implications, and show that LMX mediates the relationship between ILT congruence and work-related outcomes (performance, job satisfaction, well-being, task satisfaction, intragroup conflict, group satisfaction, team realness, team-member exchange, group performance). The third study confirms this with conflict, well-being, self-rated performance and commitment as outcomes.

Managers' perceptual errors revisited:the role of knowledge calibration

Insights from the stream of research on knowledge calibration, which refers to the correspondence between accuracy and confidence in knowledge, enable a better understanding of consequences of inaccurate perceptions of managers. This paper examines the consequences of inaccurate managerial knowledge through the lens of knowledge calibration. Specifically, the paper examines the antecedent role of miscalibration of knowledge in strategy formation. It is postulated that miscalibrated managers who overestimate external factors and display a high level of confidence in their estimates are likely to enact strategies that are relatively more evolutionary and incremental in nature, whereas miscalibrated managers who overestimate internal factors and display a high level of confidence in their estimates are likely to enact strategies that are relatively more discontinuous and disruptive in nature. Perspectives from social cognitive theory provide support for the underlying processes. The paper, in part, explains the paradox of the prevalence of inaccurate managerial perceptions and efficacious performance. It also advances the literature on strategy formation through the application of the construct of knowledge calibration.

Calibration of consumer knowledge of the web

Calibration of consumer knowledge of the web refers to the correspondence between accuracy and confidence in knowledge of the web. Being well-calibrated means that a person is realistic in his or her assessment of the level of knowledge that he or she possesses. This study finds that involvement leads to better calibration and that calibration is higher for procedural knowledge and common knowledge, as compared to declarative knowledge and specialized knowledge. Neither usage, nor experience, has any effect on calibration of knowledge of the web. No difference in calibration is observed between genders. But, in agreement with previous findings, this study also finds that males are more confident in their knowledge of the web. The results point out that calibration could be more a function of knowledge-specific factors and less that of individual-specific factors. The study also identifies flow and frustration with the web as consequences of calibration of knowledge of the web and draws the attention of future researchers to examine these aspects.

Implicit leadership and followership theories 'in the wild':taking stock of information-processing approaches to leadership and followership in organizational settings

For over 30. years information-processing approaches to leadership and more specifically Implicit Leadership Theories (ILTs) research has contributed a significant body of knowledge on leadership processes in applied settings. A new line of research on Implicit Followership Theories (IFTs) has re-ignited interest in information-processing and socio-cognitive approaches to leadership and followership. In this review, we focus on organizational research on ILTs and IFTs and highlight their practical utility for the exercise of leadership and followership in applied settings. We clarify common misperceptions regarding the implicit nature of ILTs and IFTs, review both direct and indirect measures, synthesize current and ongoing research on ILTs and IFTs in organizational settings, address issues related to different levels of analysis in the context of leadership and follower schemas and, finally, propose future avenues for organizational research. © 2013 Elsevier Inc.