General bounds on Bayes errors for regression with Gaussian processes

Based on a simple convexity lemma, we develop bounds for different types of Bayesian prediction errors for regression with Gaussian processes. The basic bounds are formulated for a fixed training set. Simpler expressions are obtained for sampling from an input distribution which equals the weight function of the covariance kernel, yielding asymptotically tight results. The results are compared with numerical experiments.

Operator-induced errors in Hartmann-Shack wavefront sensing:model eye study

Purpose: To evaluate the effects of instrument realignment and angular misalignment during the clinical determination of wavefront aberrations by simulation in model eyes. Setting: Aston Academy of Life Sciences, Aston University, Birmingham, United Kingdom. Methods: Six model eyes were examined with wavefront-aberration-supported cornea ablation (WASCA) (Carl Zeiss Meditec) in 4 sessions of 10 measurements each: sessions 1 and 2, consecutive repeated measures without realignment; session 3, realignment of the instrument between readings; session 4, measurements without realignment but with the model eye shifted 6 degrees angularly. Intersession repeatability and the effects of realignment and misalignment were obtained by comparing the measurements in the various sessions for coma, spherical aberration, and higher-order aberrations (HOAs). Results: The mean differences between the 2 sessions without realignment of the instrument were 0.020 μm ± 0.076 (SD) for Z3 - 1(P = .551), 0.009 ± 0.139 μm for Z3 1(P = .877), 0.004 ± 0.037 μm for Z4 0 (P = .820), and 0.005 ± 0.01 μm for HO root mean square (RMS) (P = .301). Differences between the nonrealigned and realigned instruments were -0.017 ± 0.026 μm for Z3 - 1(P = .159), 0.009 ± 0.028 μm for Z3 1 (P = .475), 0.007 ± 0.014 μm for Z4 0(P = .296), and 0.002 ± 0.007 μm for HO RMS (P = 0.529; differences between centered and misaligned instruments were -0.355 ± 0.149 μm for Z3 - 1 (P = .002), 0.007 ± 0.034 μm for Z3 1(P = .620), -0.005 ± 0.081 μm for Z4 0(P = .885), and 0.012 ± 0.020 μm for HO RMS (P = .195). Realignment increased the standard deviation by a factor of 3 compared with the first session without realignment. Conclusions: Repeatability of the WASCA was excellent in all situations tested. Realignment substantially increased the variance of the measurements. Angular misalignment can result in significant errors, particularly in the determination of coma. These findings are important when assessing highly aberrated eyes during follow-up or before surgery. © 2007 ASCRS and ESCRS.

Effects of syllabic complexity in predicting accuracy of repetition and direction of errors in patients with articulatory and phonological difficulties

The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the existence of a strong and significant effect of complexity in aphasia independent from other variables including length. Complexity was found to be a strong and significant predictor of accurate repetition in a group of 13 Italian aphasic patients when it was entered in a regression equation either simultaneously or after a large number of other variables. Significant effects were found both when complexity was measured in terms of number of complex onsets (as in a recent paper by Nickels & Howard, 2004) and when it was measured in a more comprehensive way. Significant complexity effects were also found with matched lists contrasting simple and complex words and in analyses of errors. Effects of complexity, however, were restricted to patients with articulatory difficulties. Reasons for this association and for the lack of significant results in Nickels and Howard (2004) are discussed. © 2005 Psychology Press Ltd.

Patterns of phonological errors as a function of a phonological versus an articulatory locus of impairment

WWe present the case of two aphasic patients: one with fluent speech, MM, and one with dysfluent speech, DB. Both patients make similar proportions of phonological errors in speech production and the errors have similar characteristics. A closer analysis, however, shows a number of differences. DB's phonological errors involve, for the most part, simplifications of syllabic structure; they affect consonants more than vowels; and, among vowels, they show effects of sonority/complexity. This error pattern may reflect articulatory difficulties. MM's errors, instead, show little effect of syllable structure, affect vowels at least as much as consonants and, and affect all different vowels to a similar extent. This pattern is consistent with a more central impairment involving the selection of the right phoneme among competing alternatives. We propose that, at this level, vowel selection may be more difficult than consonant selection because vowels belong to a smaller set of repeatedly activated units.

Source coded image data in the presence of channel errors

The growth and advances made in computer technology have led to the present interest in picture processing techniques. When considering image data compression the tendency is towards trans-form source coding of the image data. This method of source coding has reached a stage where very high reductions in the number of bits representing the data can be made while still preserving image fidelity. The point has thus been reached where channel errors need to be considered, as these will be inherent in any image comnunication system. The thesis first describes general source coding of images with the emphasis almost totally on transform coding. The transform technique adopted is the Discrete Cosine Transform (DCT) which becomes common to both transform coders. Hereafter the techniques of source coding differ substantially i.e. one tech­nique involves zonal coding, the other involves threshold coding. Having outlined the theory and methods of implementation of the two source coders, their performances are then assessed first in the absence, and then in the presence, of channel errors. These tests provide a foundation on which to base methods of protection against channel errors. Six different protection schemes are then proposed. Results obtained, from each particular, combined, source and channel error protection scheme, which are described in full are then presented. Comparisons are made between each scheme and indicate the best one to use given a particular channel error rate.

The effect of age, gender and driver status on pedestrians' intentions to cross the road in risky situations

The theory of planned behaviour (TPB) has been used successfully in the past to account for pedestrians' intentions to cross the road in risky situations. However, accident statistics show age and gender differences in the likelihood of adult pedestrian accidents. This study extends earlier work by examining the relative importance of the model components as predictors of intention to cross for four different adult age groups, men, women, drivers and nondrivers. The groups did not differ in the extent to which they differentiated between two situations of varying perceived risk. The model fit was good, but accounted for less of the variance in intention for the youngest group (17-24) than for other age groups. Differences between the age groups in intention to cross seemed to be due to differences in perceived value of crossing rather than differences in perceived risk. Women were less likely to intend to cross than men and perceived more risk, and there were important age, gender and driver status differences in the importance of the TPB variables as predictors of intention. A key implication of these findings is that road safety interventions need to be designed differently for different groups. © 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Phonological–lexical activation:a lexical component or anoutput buffer? Evidence from aphasic errors

Single word production requires that phoneme activation is maintained while articulatory conversion is taking place. Word serial recall, connected speech and non-word production (repetition and spelling) are all assumed to involve a phonological output buffer. A crucial question is whether the same memory resources are also involved in single word production. We investigate this question by assessing length and positional effects in the single word repetition and reading of six aphasic patients. We expect a damaged buffer to result in error rates per phoneme which increase with word length and in position effects. Although our patients had trouble with phoneme activation (they made mainly errors of phoneme selection), they did not show the effects expected from a buffer impairment. These results show that phoneme activation cannot be automatically equated with a buffer. We hypothesize that the phonemes of existing words are kept active though permanent links to the word node. Thus, the sustained activation needed for their articulation will come from the lexicon and will have different characteristics from the activation needed for the short-term retention of an unbound set of units. We conclude that there is no need and no evidence for a phonological buffer in single word production.

Medication errors in older people with mental health problems:a review

Objective - To review and summarise published data on medication errors in older people with mental health problems. Methods - A systematic review was conducted to identify studies that investigated medication errors in older people with mental health problems. MEDLINE, EMBASE, PHARMLINE, COCHRANE COLLABORATION and PsycINFO were searched electronically. Any studies identified were scrutinized for further references. The title, abstract or full text was systematically reviewed for relevance. Results - Data were extracted from eight studies. In total, information about 728 errors (459 administration, 248 prescribing, 7 dispensing, 12 transcribing, 2 unclassified) was available. The dataset related almost exclusively to inpatients, frequently involved non-psychotropics, and the majority of the errors were not serious. Conclusions - Due to methodology issues it was impossible to calculate overall error rates. Future research should concentrate on serious errors within community settings, and clarify potential risk factors.

Correcting errors in optical data transmission using neural networks

Optical data communication systems are prone to a variety of processes that modify the transmitted signal, and contribute errors in the determination of 1s from 0s. This is a difficult, and commercially important, problem to solve. Errors must be detected and corrected at high speed, and the classifier must be very accurate; ideally it should also be tunable to the characteristics of individual communication links. We show that simple single layer neural networks may be used to address these problems, and examine how different input representations affect the accuracy of bit error correction. Our results lead us to conclude that a system based on these principles can perform at least as well as an existing non-trainable error correction system, whilst being tunable to suit the individual characteristics of different communication links.

Influence of personal mobile phone ringing and usual intention to answer on driver error

Given evidence of effects of mobile phone use on driving, and also legislation, many careful drivers refrain from answering their phones when driving. However, the distracting influence of a call on driving, even in the context of not answering, has not been examined. Furthermore, given that not answering may be contrary to an individual’s normal habits, this study examined whether distraction caused by the ignored call varies according to normal intention to answer whilst driving. That is, determining whether the effect is more than a simple matter of noise distraction. Participants were 27 young drivers (18-29 years), all regular mobile users. A Theory of Planned Behaviour questionnaire examined predictors of intention to refrain from answering calls whilst driving. Participants provided their mobile phone number and were instructed not to answer their phone if it were to ring during a driving simulation. The simulation scenario had seven hazards (e.g. car pulling out, pedestrian crossing) with three being immediately preceded by a call. Infractions (e.g. pedestrian collisions, vehicle collisions, speed exceedances) were significantly greater when distracted by call tones than with no distraction. Lower intention to ignore calls whilst driving correlated with a larger effect of distraction, as was feeling unable to control whether one answered whilst driving (Perceived Behavioural Control). The study suggests that even an ignored call can cause significantly increased infractions in simulator driving, with pedestrian collisions and speed exceedances being striking examples. Results are discussed in relation to cognitive demands of inhibiting normal behaviour and to drivers being advised to switch phones off whilst driving.

Managers' perceptual errors revisited:the role of knowledge calibration

Insights from the stream of research on knowledge calibration, which refers to the correspondence between accuracy and confidence in knowledge, enable a better understanding of consequences of inaccurate perceptions of managers. This paper examines the consequences of inaccurate managerial knowledge through the lens of knowledge calibration. Specifically, the paper examines the antecedent role of miscalibration of knowledge in strategy formation. It is postulated that miscalibrated managers who overestimate external factors and display a high level of confidence in their estimates are likely to enact strategies that are relatively more evolutionary and incremental in nature, whereas miscalibrated managers who overestimate internal factors and display a high level of confidence in their estimates are likely to enact strategies that are relatively more discontinuous and disruptive in nature. Perspectives from social cognitive theory provide support for the underlying processes. The paper, in part, explains the paradox of the prevalence of inaccurate managerial perceptions and efficacious performance. It also advances the literature on strategy formation through the application of the construct of knowledge calibration.

Opportunity, fair process and relationship value:career development as a driver of proactive work behaviour

In line with recent findings from organisational justice theory, we hypothesised that employee proactive behaviour and careerist orientation is predicted by the interplay of perceived favourability of career development opportunities, the perceived fairness of the procedures used to decide them, and employee organisational commitment. Employees (N = 325) of a large financial services organisation responded to a self-completion questionnaire. As predicted, when career development opportunities were viewed unfavourably, perceived procedural justice was significantly and positively related to individual proactive behaviour and significantly and negatively related to careerist orientation but only when organisational commitment was high. It appears that high procedural justice may only 'offset' the negative effects of unfavourable career development opportunities when employees identify with, and are committed to, their organisation. Further support is presented for a relational, rather than instrumental, model of procedural justice when reflecting on employee reactions to their employers' policies and decision-making. Implications for theory and practice are discussed.

Effects of syllable structure in aphasic errors:implications for a new model of speech production

Current models of word production assume that words are stored as linear sequences of phonemes which are structured into syllables only at the moment of production. This is because syllable structure is always recoverable from the sequence of phonemes. In contrast, we present theoretical and empirical evidence that syllable structure is lexically represented. Storing syllable structure would have the advantage of making representations more stable and resistant to damage. On the other hand, re-syllabifications affect only a minimal part of phonological representations and occur only in some languages and depending on speech register. Evidence for these claims comes from analyses of aphasic errors which not only respect phonotactic constraints, but also avoid transformations which move the syllabic structure of the word further away from the original structure, even when equating for segmental complexity. This is true across tasks, types of errors, and, crucially, types of patients. The same syllabic effects are shown by apraxic patients and by phonological patients who have more central difficulties in retrieving phonological representations. If syllable structure was only computed after phoneme retrieval, it would have no way to influence the errors of phonological patients. Our results have implications for psycholinguistic and computational models of language as well as for clinical and educational practices.

Charismatic leadership as a driver of sales-marketing collaboration

The purpose of this study is to develop an integrative framework for investigating the organizational consequences of marketing leadership. The new integrative framework employs the theories of charismatic leadership and organizational identification as foundation. Combining constructs and propositions from these two theories, and informed by initial insights from in-depth interview research, our proposed framework offers an holistic model to explore and explain how marketing leadership behaviours influence (1) relations between marketing and sales groups, and (2) consequent firm performance. The paper develops propositions and offers future research directions.