The dynamics of spending and absorption of aid : panel data analysis

In September 1999, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) established the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) to make the reduction of poverty and the enhancement of economic growth the fundamental objectives of lending operations in its poorest member countries. This paper studies the spending and absorption of aid in PRGF-supported programs, verifies whether the use of aid is programmed to be smoothed over time, and analyzes how considerations about macroeconomic stability influence the programmed use of aid. The paper shows that PRGF-supported programs permit countries to utilize all increases in aid within a few years, showing smoothed use of aid inflows over time. Our results reveal that spending is higher than absorption in both the long-run and short-run use of aid, which is a robust finding of the study. Furthermore, the paper demonstrates that the long-run spending exceeds the injected increase of aid inflows in the economy. In addition, the paper finds that the presence of a PRGF-supported program does not influence the actual absorption or spending of aid.

Restoration of micro data of John Lossing Buck's survey and analysis of the inverse relationship between yield and farm size in rural China in the 1930's

A large scale Chinese agricultural survey was conducted at the direction of John Lossing Buck from 1929 through 1933. At the end of the 1990’s, some parts of the original micro data of Buck’s survey were discovered at Nanjing Agricultural University. An international joint study was begun to restore micro data of Buck’s survey and construct parts of the micro database on both the crop yield survey and special expenditure survey. This paper includes a summary of the characteristics of farmlands and cropping patterns in crop yield micro data that covered 2,102 farmers in 20 counties of 9 provinces. In order to test the classical hypothesis of whether or not an inverse relationship between land productivity and cultivated area may be observed in developing countries, a Box-Cox transformation test was conducted for functional forms on five main crops of Buck’s crop yield survey. The result of the test shows that the relationship between land productivity and cultivated areas of wheat and barley is linear and somewhat negative; those of rice, rapeseed, and seed cotton appear to be slightly positive. It can be tentatively concluded that the relationship between cultivated area and land productivity are not the same among crops, and the difference of labor intensity and the level of commercialization of each crop may be strongly related to the existence or non-existence of inverse relationships.

Dimensions and determinants of upward mobility : a study based on longitudinal data from Delhi slums

This study based on two primary surveys of the same households in two different years (2007/08 and 2012) assesses the extent of inter-temporal change in income of the individual workers and makes an attempt to identify the factors which explain upward mobility in alternate econometric framework, envisaging endogeneity problem. It also encompasses a host of indicators of wellbeing and constructs the transition matrix to capture the extent of change over time at the household level. The findings are indicative of a rise in the income of workers across a sizeable percentage of households though many of them remained below the poverty line notwithstanding this increase. In fact, there is a wide spread deterioration in the wellbeing index constructed at the household level. Among several determinants of income rise two important policy prescriptions can be elicited. Inadequate education reduces the probability of upward mobility while education above a threshold level raises it. Savings are crucial for upward mobility impinging on the importance of asset creation. Views that entail neighbourhood spill-over effects also received validation. Besides, investment in housing and basic amenities turns out to be crucial for improvement in wellbeing levels.