Market efficiency of commodity futures in India

This paper aims to examine the market efficiency of the commodity futures market in India, which has been growing phenomenally for the last few years. We estimate the long-run equilibrium relationship between the multi-commodity futures and spot prices and then test for market efficiency in a weak form sense by applying both the DOLS and the FMOLS methods. The entire sample period is from 2 January 2006 to 31 March 2011. The results indicate that a cointegrating relationship is found between these indices and that the commodity futures market seems to be efficient only during the more recent sub-sample period since July 2009.

Rice flows across regions in Madagascar

Although spatial disintegration of rice markets in Madagascar has been well documented, little is known about actual rice flows across regions. Using weekly collected unique data from rice markets in 22 regional capital cities for one year, this study explores the physical distribution of rice in Madagascar and reveals that rice flows from sufficient regions to deficit regions, along with geographical proximity, have positive effects on rice flow. In contrast, season factors, such as harvest/non-harvest periods and weather conditions have a negligible effect on rice flow. These findings suggest that rice flows generally follow a rational pattern despite the fact that market indicators indicate that rice trade across regions is underdeveloped.