The emission reduction effect and economic impact of an energy tax vs. a carbon tax in China : a dynamic CGE model analysis

Chinese government commits to reach its peak carbon emissions before 2030, which requires China to implement new policies. Using a CGE model, this study conducts simulation studies on the functions of an energy tax and a carbon tax and analyzes their effects on macro-economic indices. The Chinese economy is affected at an acceptable level by the two taxes. GDP will lose less than 0.8% with a carbon tax of 100, 50, or 10 RMB/ton CO2 or 5% of the delivery price of an energy tax. Thus, the loss of real disposable personal income is smaller. Compared with implementing a single tax, a combined carbon and energy tax induces more emission reductions with relatively smaller economic costs. With these taxes, the domestic competitiveness of energy intensive industries is improved. Additionally, we found that the sooner such taxes are launched, the smaller the economic costs and the more significant the achieved emission reductions.

Economic Reforms and Income Inequality in Urban China

This paper reports the results of an analysis of changes in income inequality, and in its determinants, in urban China since the economic reforms that began in 1978. The intention is to identify new characteristics of economic inequality. It first shows that income differentials acrossand in provinces widened and that their economic rankings were becoming fixed during the period from 1988 to 1995. Second, age was the major factor in inequality in 1988, while education became the important factor in 1995. Third, education significantly contributed to increasing inequality during the period. Fourth, the higher education-level groups had less within-group inequality. These changes reflect the penetration of the market mechanism into China after the reforms. However, this will be problematic without equality of opportunity.

Poverty Analysis of Ethiopian Females in the Amhara Region: Utilizing BMI as an Indicator of Poverty

This paper analyzes poverty-affected females in the Amhara region of Ethiopia. As the measurement of poverty, the paper uses body mass index (BMI) because it is one of the effective tools for measuring individual poverty level. The results of the BMI analysis show that the most poverty-affected female group is the female household heads in urban areas. The results, however, should be treated carefully considering the different social and economic structure of urban and rural areas, and the interdependent relationship between these two areas. In rural areas, access to land is the biggest issue affecting the BMI, while in urban areas, the occupation of husbands or partners is more important. These differences by area do not mean that there is no intersection between the urban and rural female groups because the majority of females in urban areas migrated from rural areas to urban areas due to various reasons such as divorce, marriage, and job opportunities.

Sources of Regional Income Disparity in Rural Vietnam: Oaxaca-Blinder Decomposition

This paper investigates determinants of regional income disparity in rural Vietnam, with special emphasis placed on the roles of human capital and land. We apply a decomposition method, suggested by Oaxaca and Blinder. We found that returns to assets rather than endowments, especially those of human capital, are one of the leading factors to account for income differences across regions. We also found that substantial improvements of returns to human capital in the Red River delta region are a driving force to catch up with Mekong River delta region. Unexpectedly, differences in land endowment do not strongly correlate with regional income disparity because better access to land in a region was partially offset by lower returns.

Income disparity among persons with disabilities assessed by education and sex : findings from a field survey conducted in Metro Manila, the Philippines

How do persons with disabilities (PWDs) earn a living? From the view point of poverty reduction, this question is quite critical in developing countries. This paper presents an investigation of economic activities of PWDs in the Philippines where, among developing countries, disability-related legislation is relatively progressive. In 2008, a field survey was conducted in cooperation with Disability People’s Organizations (DPOs) using a tailor-made questionnaire in four representative cities of Metro Manila. The level and determinants of income of PWDs were examined with Mincer regression. Conclusions are as follows: (1) The incidence and depth of poverty are greater among sample PWDs than that of the total population in Metro Manila. (2) There is remarkable income disparity among PWDs which is associated with education and sex. (3) After controlling individual, parental, and environmental characteristics, it was found that female PWDs are likely to earn less than male PWDs due to fewer opportunities to participate in economic activities. It is suggested that female PWDs are doubly handicapped in earning income.

Pro-poor growth or poverty trap? : estimating intergenerational income mobility in rural Philippines

Using an intergenerational database covering nearly a quarter of a century, we explored the degree of intergenerational income mobility among individuals who had grown up in rural Central Luzon, the Philippines. We found that the intergenerational income elasticity is significantly lower than unity, at roughly 0.23, indicating that the average income growth rate is higher for children born to poorer families. The detailed analysis, however, revealed that its magnitude significantly varies across percentiles in a U-shape. The results provide supporting evidence of multiple equilibria or poverty trap.

Influence of Social Institutions on Inequality in China

This study analyses the impact of changes in social institutions, i.e. in the informal and formal social security system, on income inequality in China. This study uses an inequality decomposition analysis approach comparing household survey data for 1988 with 1995.Three main results emerge from the analysis: first, it findsthat the family based social security is losing its importance mainly through the changes in employment pattern in a household. This change contributes to rising income inequality. Second, thestudy shows that the introduction of new formal social security system helped to equalise the distribution of retired household members' income in urban areas in 1995. Third, however, these changes have only benefited a restricted number of persons. Benefits for rural migrants are low and most of the rural population has still no access to the new system.

Chapter 4 A Review of the Availability of and Studies on Spatial Economic Data in Laos

Spatial data are being increasingly used in a wide range of disciplines, a fact that is clearly reflected in the recent trend to add spatial dimensions to the conventional social sciences. Economics is by no means an exception. On one hand, spatial data are indispensable to many branches of economics such as economic geography, new economic geography, or spatial economics. On the other hand, macroeconomic data are becoming available at more and more micro levels, so that academics and analysts take it for granted that they are available not only for an entire country, but also for more detailed levels (e.g. state, province, and even city). The term ‘spatial economics data’ as used in this report refers to any economic data that has spatial information attached. This spatial information can be the coordinates of a location at best or a less precise place name as is used to describe administrative units. Obviously, the latter cannot be used without a map of corresponding administrative units. Maps are therefore indispensible to the analysis of spatial economic data without absolute coordinates. The aim of this report is to review the availability of spatial economic data that pertains specifically to Laos and academic studies conducted on such data up to the present. In regards to the availability of spatial economic data, efforts have been made to identify not only data that has been made available as geographic information systems (GIS) data, but also those with sufficient place labels attached. The rest of the report is organized as follows. Section 2 reviews the maps available for Laos, both in hard copy and editable electronic formats. Section 3 summarizes the spatial economic data available for Laos at the present time, and Section 4 reviews and categorizes the many economic studies utilizing these spatial data. Section 5 give examples of some of the spatial industrial data collected for this research. Section 6 provides a summary of the findings and gives some indication of the direction of the final report due for completion in fiscal 2010.

Changes in the causes of earnings inequality in urban China from 1988 to 2002

This paper analyzes the causes of earnings inequality in urban China from 1988 to 2002. Earnings inequality in urban China continuously increased, even when adjusting for regional price differences. This paper reveals how the causes of earnings inequality changed between the periods 1988-1995 and 1995-2002 by reflecting labor-related institutional reform in China. Contrary to the situation from 1988 to 1995, between 1995 and 2002, employment status became the largest disequalizer, and the decline of inter-provincial inequality contributed to a reduction in entire earnings inequality. Individual ability, represented by education and occupation, received much greater rewards. Throughout the period from 1988 to 2002, a large part of the explained inequality increase was due to change in price (valuation of each individual's attributes) and not due to change in quantity (composition of individual attributes).

The contribution of supply and demand shifts to earnings inequality in urban China

This paper examines the degree to which supply and demand shift across skill groups contributed to the earnings inequality increase in urban China from 1988 to 2002. Product demand shift contributed to an equalizing of earnings distribution in urban China from 1988 to 1995 by increasing the relative product for the low educated. However, it contributed to enlarging inequality from 1995 to 2002 by increasing the relative demand for the highly educated. Relative demand was continuously higher for workers in the coastal region and contributed to a raising of interregional inequality. Supply shift contributed essentially nothing or contributed only slightly to a reduction in inequality. Remaining factors, the largest disequalizer, may contain skill-biased technological and institutional changes, and unobserved supply shift effects due to increasing numbers of migrant workers.

Non-economic voting and incumbent strength in Turkey

Evidence suggests that incumbent parties find it harder to be re-elected in emerging than in advanced democracies because of more serious economic problems in the former. Yet the pro-Islamic Justice and Development Party (AKP) has ruled Turkey since 2002. Does economic performance sufficiently account for the electoral strength of the AKP government? Reliance on economic performance alone to gain public support makes a government vulnerable to economic fluctuations. This study includes time-series regressions for the period 1950-2011 in Turkey and demonstrates that even among Turkey's long-lasting governments, the AKP has particular electoral strength that cannot be adequately explained by economic performance.

Agglomeration effects of informal sector: evidence from Cambodia

The presence of a large informal sector in developing economies poses the question of whether informal activity produces agglomeration externalities. This paper uses data on all the nonfarm establishments and enterprises in Cambodia to estimate the impact of informal agglomeration on the regional economic performance of formal and informal firms. We develop a Bayesian approach for a spatial autoregressive model with an endogenous explanatory variable to address endogeneity and spatial dependence. We find a significantly positive effect of informal agglomeration, where informal firms gain more strongly than formal firms. Calculating the spatial marginal effects of increased agglomeration, we demonstrate that more accessible regions are more likely than less accessible regions to benefit strongly from informal agglomeration.

Voting behavior in Indonesia from 1999 to 2014 : religious cleavage or economic performance?

In this study, we examine the voting behavior in Indonesian parliamentary elections from 1999 to 2014. After summarizing the changes in Indonesian parties' share of the vote from a historical standpoint, we investigate the voting behavior with simple regression models to analyze the effect of regional characteristics on Islamic/secular parties' vote share, using aggregated panel data at the district level. Then, we also test the hypothesis of retrospective economic voting. The results show that districts which formerly stood strongly behind Islamic parties continued to select those parties, or gave preference to abstention over the parties in some elections. From the point of view of retrospective economic voting, we found that districts which experienced higher per capita economic growth gave more support to the ruling parties, although our results remain tentative because information on 2014 is not yet available.