Toward an inclusive and a little bit ethical world trading system : listening to the voices of the people in LDCs

Many specialists in international trade have started saying that the era of a mega FTA is approaching. If the three poles of the global economy, namely East Asia, EU and the United States, form mega FTAs, most of the volume of global trade will be covered. That may be fine, but there will be many countries left out of the mega FTA, most of which will be the least developed countries (LDCs). Since the inception of the Doha Development Agenda (DDA) negotiations in 2001, the WTO and its member countries have tried to include LDCs in the world trading system through various means, including DFQF and AfT. Although these means have some positive impact on the economic development of LDCs, most of the LDCs will never feel comfortable with the current world trading system. To overcome the stalemate in the DDA and to create an inclusive world trading system, we need more commitment from both LDCs and non-LDCs. To surmount the prolonged stalemate in the DDA, we should understand how ordinary people in LDCs feel and think about the current world trading system. Those voices have seldom been listened to, even by the decision makers of their own countries. So as to understand the situation of the people in LDCs, IDE-JETRO carried out several research projects using macro, meso and micro approaches. For the micro level, we collected and analyzed statements from ordinary people concerning their opinions about the world trading system. The interviewees are ordinary people such as street vendors, farmers and factory workers. We asked about where they buy and sell daily necessities, their perception of imported goods, export promotion and free trade at large, etc. These ‘voices of the people’ surveys were conducted in Madagascar and Cambodia during 2013. Based on this research, and especially the findings from the ‘voices of the people’ surveys, we propose a ‘DDA-MDGs hybrid’ strategy to conclude DDA negotiations and develop a more inclusive and a little bit more ethical world trading system. Our proposal may be summarized in the following three points. (1) Aid for Trade (AfT) ver. 2 Currently AfT is mainly focused on coordinating several aid projects related to LDCs’ capacity building. However, this is inadequate; for the proposed ‘DDA-MDGs hybrid’, a super AfT is needed. The WTO, other development agencies and LDC governments will not only coordinate but also plan together aid projects for trade capacity building. AfT ver. 2 includes infrastructure projects either gran aid, ODA loans and private investment. This is in accordance with the post-MDGs argument which emphasizes the role of the private sector. (2) Ethical Attitude Reciprocity is a principle of multilateral agreement, and it has been a core promise since GATT. However, for designing an inclusive system, special and differential treatment (S&D) is still needed for disadvantaged members. To compromise full reciprocity and less than full reciprocity, an ethical attitude on the part of every member is needed in which every member refrains from insisting on the full rights and demands of its own country. As used herein, the term ‘ethical’ implies more consideration for LDCs, and it is almost identical to S&D but with a more positive attitude from developed countries (super S&D). (3) Collect Voices of the People In order to grasp the real situation of the people, the voices of the people on free trade will continue to be collected in other LDCs, and the findings and leanings will be fed back to the WTO negotiation space.

Regime survival strategies and the conduct of foreign policy in Egypt

エジプトではムバーラク大統領の国内政策と域内におけるエジプトの影響力低迷が引き金となって、2011年1月25日に抗議運動起こった。抗議運動はエジプト全土に拡がり、18日間の民衆的な反体制運動によってムバーラクは軍に見捨てられ、失脚に追い込まれた。この民衆蜂起によって警察は街頭から撤退し、シナイ半島の警察署は焼き放たれ、ムバーラクが率いていた国民民主党の建物や国内治安機関の本部は襲撃され、国家機関が数ヶ月にもわたって機能不全となり、ムバーラク体制の崩壊は国内的な混乱を招くこととなった。振り返れば、エジプトでの政治的大変動は社会的な革命へと展開することはできなかった。その理由は独裁体制からの移行を先導できる組織化された反体制勢力が存在しなかったためである。民衆による抗議運動は一時的に体制を転覆できても旧体制のエリートを分裂させることはできず、軍の影響下にある体制の復活を防ぐこともできなかった。2011年以降のエジプトは現在まで混乱状態に陥ったままであるが、1カ月に及ぶエジプト軍最高評議会(SCAF)の暫定統治、エジプト史上初の自由な大統領選挙によって選出された文民大統領のムルスィーによる一年余りの統治、そして2013年7月の軍事クーデターによって権力の座に就いたスィースィーの統治といった過程で、民衆蜂起がエジプトの外交関係に及ぼした影響はごく僅かであった。本稿は、現在のエジプトの外交政策が2011年の革命にほとんど影響を受けていないのはなぜか、またエジプトの統治者たちが政権の正統性、体制の強化および政治的な安定性を確保し、国内的な課題に対処するための戦略をいかに策定しているのかを説明することを試みる。本稿での主張は、ムバーラク以降のエジプトが体制の強化と保全のために外交政策を進めており、国内的な混乱によって地域内アクターへの依存度が高まっていることである。