The emission reduction effect and economic impact of an energy tax vs. a carbon tax in China : a dynamic CGE model analysis

Chinese government commits to reach its peak carbon emissions before 2030, which requires China to implement new policies. Using a CGE model, this study conducts simulation studies on the functions of an energy tax and a carbon tax and analyzes their effects on macro-economic indices. The Chinese economy is affected at an acceptable level by the two taxes. GDP will lose less than 0.8% with a carbon tax of 100, 50, or 10 RMB/ton CO2 or 5% of the delivery price of an energy tax. Thus, the loss of real disposable personal income is smaller. Compared with implementing a single tax, a combined carbon and energy tax induces more emission reductions with relatively smaller economic costs. With these taxes, the domestic competitiveness of energy intensive industries is improved. Additionally, we found that the sooner such taxes are launched, the smaller the economic costs and the more significant the achieved emission reductions.

How does firm heterogeneity information impact the estimation of embodied carbon emissions in Chinese exports?

Using an augmented Chinese input–output table in which information about firm ownership and type of traded goods are explicitly reported, we show that ignoring firm heterogeneity causes embodied CO2 emissions in Chinese exports to be overestimated by 20% at the national level, with huge differences at the sector level, for 2007. This is because different types of firm that are allocated to the same sector of the conventional Chinese input–output table vary greatly in terms of market share, production technology and carbon intensity. This overestimation of export-related carbon emissions would be even higher if it were not for the fact that 80% of CO2 emissions embodied in exports of foreign-owned firms are, in fact, emitted by Chinese-owned firms upstream of the supply chain. The main reason is that the largest CO2 emitter, the electricity sector located upstream in Chinese domestic supply chains, is strongly dominated by Chinese-owned firms with very high carbon intensity.