Agglomeration versus Fragmentation:A Comparison of East Asia and Europe

Inspired by the observed contrasting patterns of industrial distribution in East Asia and Europe, this paper conducts an empirical clarification of the difference in spatial relationships among countries within a region for the electric machinery industry by use of spatial econometric analysis. The results indicate that, while production in the electric machinery industry in a country is positively correlated with that of neighboring countries in East Asia, there is no significant spatial correlation in Europe. Such a difference in spatial interdependence has important implications for economic development in those regions.

Non-economic voting and incumbent strength in Turkey

Evidence suggests that incumbent parties find it harder to be re-elected in emerging than in advanced democracies because of more serious economic problems in the former. Yet the pro-Islamic Justice and Development Party (AKP) has ruled Turkey since 2002. Does economic performance sufficiently account for the electoral strength of the AKP government? Reliance on economic performance alone to gain public support makes a government vulnerable to economic fluctuations. This study includes time-series regressions for the period 1950-2011 in Turkey and demonstrates that even among Turkey's long-lasting governments, the AKP has particular electoral strength that cannot be adequately explained by economic performance.

Chapter 1 Economic Integration and Industry Location: Theories, Empirical Results, and Implications for CLMV

Trade affects the internal location of industry in two ways: it induces firms to specialize and it expands the set of markets that firms serve. If there are industry-specific external economies, firms in related industries will spatially agglomerate (Hanson 1996a). In the context of economic integration, diminished barriers to trade affect industry location particularly in less developed countries. As described below, regional agreements in North America and Europe have caused frontier regions to expand. These regions, which include border regions and port cities, have advantages over internal regions in terms of access to foreign markets. Since trade liberalization induces many firms in developing countries to participate in production networks and to specialize in labor-intensive activities such as assembling and processing of foreign-made components, their inputs as well as final products need to be carried across borders. Therefore, the best industry location, one that minimizes transport costs, is likely to shift to frontier regions. In East Asia, China has developed rapidly since it opened up to international trade. Simultaneously, a large amount of foreign direct investment (FDI) has been attracted and industry agglomerations have been formed in coastal regions, that is, frontier regions linked to the global market by sea, leaving many internal regions behind. Similarly, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and Vietnam (CLMV) have joined AFTA and/or the WTO and liberalized international trade since the 1990s. Moreover, transport infrastructures such as the East-West Economic Corridor, the Southern Economic Corridor, and the North-South Economic Corridor have been built and narrowed economic distances in the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS). As a result, frontier regions are likely to increase their location advantages and lure labor-intensive operations from neighboring countries. It is expected that, as has happened in North America and Europe, economic integration in East Asia will significantly affect internal geography in CLMV. In this study, I first review theories relevant to economic integration and industry location within a country. In particular, emphasis is placed on the new economic geography (NEG). Secondly, empirical results for North America and Europe are surveyed since they have preceded East Asia in regional integration and a substantial number of studies have been conducted on these regions. The final section summarizes and discusses implications for internal geography in CLMV.

中国と湾岸を結ぶ南アジア -- パキスタン・アフガニスタンの動向と関連させて

Pakistan is geographically situated between China and the Gulf. In order to balance its strategic position against the major security threat of India, Pakistan formed a special and stable strategic alliance with China against common threats since the period of the cold war even though the two countries have neither a political ideology nor political system in common. On the other hand Pakistan established another special relation with Saudi Arabia on the basis of Islamic identity. With its expanding economic capacity, China proposed a project by the name of "new silk road economic corridor" with the intention of expanding and multiplying trade routes with the Middle East and Europe. Within this framework Pakistan is expected to expand the role of an alternative land route that connects the Gulf and China for use if unfavorable emergencies occur in the Malacca route. However, the continuous political uncertainty in Afghanistan after the pullout of US-NATO fighting forces at the end of 2014 and sporadic outbreaks of terrorist acts by Pakistan Taliban in Pakistan have increased China's anxiety regarding Uyghur issues at home. Avoiding military options for the moment, China is trying to find ways to play an active role in the security issues of Afghanistan with help from Pakistan if available. On the other hand, it is noteworthy that the Pakistani government formed in the general election of 2008 completed its full term and transferred authority to the newly elected government in 2013, something never observed before in Pakistan's history. Coincidently, in Afghanistan the presidential election was carried out peacefully in 2014 in spite of the Taliban threat. Although it is too early to make any definite conclusion, constitutional processes, in spite of their defects, reflected to some extent wishes for normal life of the people of Pakistan and Afghanistan who were disgusted with weak governance and the prevalence of terrorism.

トルコにおける2015年総選挙とエルドアン体制の政策変容

In Turkey, the political system in which Recep Tayyip Erdoğan plays the most important role – the "Erdoğan regime" – has been in place since November 2002. After Erdoğan’s party, the Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi, AKP), won the general elections and he became the prime minster, they were successful in maintaining the single-party administration over ten years. Even since becoming the president and devolving the premiership to Ahmet Davutoğlu in August 2014, Erdoğan has been at the center of the Turkish parliamentary system. However, in the Turkish general elections in June 2015, the AKP failed to get a majority of parliamentary seats for the first time, and the Erdoğan regime seemed to be faced with a crisis. The regime was able to regain the single-party administration in the early general elections in November 2015 by carrying out significant political change after their first electoral defeat. In this sense, for Turkey and the Erdoğan regime, the year 2015 was not only the year of the election, but also of political change. This paper analyzes these two general elections in 2015 and the changes of the political tendencies of the Erdoğan regime which have been observed since the general elections in June 2015 in particular. It also focuses on the changes in the strategies and the relationships among Turkish political actors including President Erdoğan, the AKP government, and the other major political parties.

Economic impacts of the Kra Canal : an application of the automatic calculation of sea distances by a GIS

A plan to construct a canal through the Kra Isthmus in Southern Thailand has been proposed many times since the 17th century. The proposed canal would become an alternative route to the over-crowded Straits of Malacca. In this paper, we attempt to utilize a Geographical Information System (GIS) to calculate the realistic distances between ports that would be affected by the Kra Canal and to estimate the economic impact of the canal using a simulation model based on spatial economics. We find that China, India, Japan, and Europe gain the most from the construction of the canal, besides Thailand. On the other hand, the routes through the Straits of Malacca are largely beneficial to Malaysia, Brunei, and Indonesia, besides Singapore. Thus, it is beneficial for all ASEAN member countries that the Kra Canal and the Straits of Malacca coexist and complement one another.