Analysis on International Trade of CLM Countries

Since their accession to AFTA, trade volumes of CLM countries have being grown rapidly while their trade patterns and directions have significantly changed. Recognizing the importance of international trade in CLM economies, this study attempts to analyze the trade patterns of CLM countries based the gravity model. The empirical analysis is conducted to identify the determining factors of each country’s bilateral trade flows and policy implications for promoting their trade.

Political limits on the world oil trade : firm-level evidence from US firms

International politics affect trade patterns, especially for firms in extractive industries. We construct the firm-level dataset for the U.S. oil-importing companies over 1986-2010 to test whether the state of international relations with the trading partners of the U.S. affect importing behavior of the U.S. firms. To measure "political distance" between the U.S. and her trading partners we use voting records for the UN General Assembly. We find that the U.S. firms, in fact, import significantly less oil from the political opponents of the U.S. Our conjecture is that the decrease in oil imports is mainly driven by large, vertically-integrated U.S. firms that engage in foreign direct investment (FDI) overseas.

Economies of Transport Density and Industrial Agglomeration

This paper develops a model of a spatial economy in which interregional trade patterns and the structure of the transport network are determined endogenously as a result of the interaction between industrial location behavior and increasing returns in transportation, in particular, economies of transport density. The traditional models assume either the structure of the transport network or industrial location patterns, and hence, they are unable to explain the interdependence of the two. It is shown that economies of transport density can be the primary source of industrial localization.

Is It Worthwhile for Indonesia to Rush into a Free Trade Deal with Japan?

This report represents a preliminary attempt to refine some basic ideas on the potential impact Indonesia might experience from a free trade arrangement with Japan, using a forward-looking, multi-regional, multi-sectoral applied general equilibrium model of global trade to capture growth effects through capital accumulation paying attention to the changes in the patterns of interregional capital flows that might happen even before the policy change occurs. The simulation results revealed that the welfare gains of rushing into trade liberalization with Japan are not so large. This makes out that taking time over negotiations might be the best choice for Indonesia if the government places priority on convincing the Indonesian people that a free trade deal with Japan will definitely bring positive effects, while proceeding rapidly might be the answer if the country is serious about recovering the welfare levels that might be lowered by free trade arrangements among Malaysia, the Philippines, and Japan.

Effect of import time on export patterns

This study examines how the importing process time affects export patterns at an establishment level. We first theoretically discuss the effects of import time on not only exports but also export shipment frequency and exports per shipment. Then, we derive some propositions regarding those effects. Next, by employing highly detailed customs data for Thailand from 2007 to 2011, we empirically investigate those propositions. In this study, the time to import is measured at an establishment level using the difference between the dates on which import shipments arrived in ports and then were released from the container yard. Our main finding is that a longer time reduces total exports, particularly through decreasing export frequency. Significantly negative effects on exports per shipment appear in some specific cases. A longer time to import also reduces total imports, particularly through decreasing import frequency.