Ramadan school holidays as a natural experiment : impacts of seasonality on school dropout in Bangladesh

In 2000, Ramadan school vacation coincided with the original annual exam period of December in Bangladesh. This forced schools to pre-pone their final exam schedules in November, which was the month before the harvest begins. 'Ramadan 2000' is a natural experiment that reduced the labor demand for children during the exam period. Using household level panel data of 2000 and 2003, and after controlling for various unobservable variations including individual fixed effects, aggregate year effects, and subdistrict-level year effects, this paper finds evidence of statistically significant impact of seasonal labor demand on school dropout in Bangladesh among the children from agricultural households.

Career Crisis? Impacts of Financial Shock on the Entry-Level Labor Market: Evidence from Thailand

We utilize Thailand's the financial crisis in 1997 as a natural experiment which exogenously shifts labor demand. Convincing evidence from the Thailand Labor Force Survey support the hypothesis that both employment opportunities and wages shrunk for new entrants after the crisis. We find that workers who entered before the crisis experienced job losses and wage losses. But these losses were smaller than those of new entrants after the crisis. We also find that new entrants after the crisis experienced a 10% reduction in the overtime wages compared to new entrants before the crisis.

Assortative matching of exporters and importers

This paper uses the opening of the US textile/apparel market for China at the end of the Multifibre Arrangement in 2005 as a natural experiment to provide evidence for positive assortative matching of Mexican exporting firms and US importing firms by their capability. We identify three findings for liberalized products by comparing them to other textile/apparel products: (1) US importers switched their Mexican partners to those making greater preshock exports, whereas Mexican exporters switched their US partners to those making fewer preshock imports; (2) for firms who switched partners, trade volume of the old partners and the new partners are positively correlated; (3) small Mexican exporters stop exporting. We develop a model combining Becker-type matching of final producers and suppliers with the standard Melitz-type model to show that these findings are consistent with positive assortative matching but not with negative assortative matching or purely random matching. The model indicates that the findings are evidence for a new mechanism of gain from trade.