Analogous Cycles with Lagged Co-movement: U.S. and East Asian Business Cycles

In selected East Asian economies, the behavior of detrended macroeconomic variables was found to be similar to that observed in the postwar U.S. economy. Consumption and investment are highly procyclical while the balance of trade and the price level are counter-cyclical in most of them. Labor productivity is procyclical in general. The high coherence between U.S. GDP and that of the East Asian economies suggests that business cycles in terms of frequency are also similar between the United States and East Asia. However, the GDP and consumption of East Asian countries do not necessarily co-move well with current U.S. and Japanese GDP and consumption, while East Asian consumption tends to co-move more with lagged U.S. and Japanese consumption.

Skill distribution and comparative advantage: a comparison of China and India

This paper empirically examines the different comparative advantages of two emerging economic giants, China and India, in relation to the different skill distribution patterns in each country. By utilizing industry export data on China and India from 1983 to 2000, we find that a country with a greater dispersion of skills (i.e., India, especially in the earlier years) has higher exports in industries with shorter production chains, whereas a country with a more equal dispersion of skills (i.e., China, especially in the later years) is found to have higher exports in industries with longer production chains. The causal relationship is fairly robust across different specifications. This empirical evidence supports our assumption that the likely mechanism for these results is the negative impact of low-skilled workers on input quality, which accumulates and becomes larger as the length of production chains and the proportion of low-skilled workers in the economy increase.

Ramadan school holidays as a natural experiment : impacts of seasonality on school dropout in Bangladesh

In 2000, Ramadan school vacation coincided with the original annual exam period of December in Bangladesh. This forced schools to pre-pone their final exam schedules in November, which was the month before the harvest begins. 'Ramadan 2000' is a natural experiment that reduced the labor demand for children during the exam period. Using household level panel data of 2000 and 2003, and after controlling for various unobservable variations including individual fixed effects, aggregate year effects, and subdistrict-level year effects, this paper finds evidence of statistically significant impact of seasonal labor demand on school dropout in Bangladesh among the children from agricultural households.

Assessing agglomeration economies in the Yangzi River Delta, China : a bayesian spatial econometric approach

This paper estimates the elasticity of labor productivity with respect to employment density, a widely used measure of the agglomeration effect, in the Yangtze River Delta, China. A spatial Durbin model is presented that makes explicit the influences of spatial dependence and endogeneity bias in a very simple way. Results of Bayesian estimation using the data of the year 2009 indicate that the productivity is influenced by factors correlated with density rather than density itself and that spatial spillovers of these factors of agglomeration play a significant role. They are consistent with the findings of Ke (2010) and Artis, et al. (2011) that suggest the importance of taking into account spatial dependence and hitherto omitted variables.

Skill sorting and production chains : evidence from India

This study proposes a new mechanism that explains skill-sorting patterns and skill wage differentials across industries based on the length of the industry's production chain. A simple simultaneous production model shows that when the quality of intermediate inputs deteriorates rapidly along the production chains, high-skilled individuals choose to work in industries with shorter production chains because of higher returns to skill. I empirically confirm this skill-sorting pattern and these inter-industry skill wage differentials in India, where the quality of intermediate inputs is likely to degrade rapidly because of the high number of unskilled laborers, poor infrastructure, and less-advantaged technology. The results remain robust even when considering selection bias, alternative reasons for inter-industry skill wage differentials, and a different period. The results of this study have important implications when considering countries' industrial development patterns.

Does technological progress magnify regional disparities?

We study how technological progress in manufacturing and transportation to-gether with migration costs interact to shape the space-economy. Rising labor productivity in the manufacturing sector fosters the agglomeration of activities, whereas falling transport costs associated with technological and organizational in-novations fosters their dispersion. Since these two forces have been at work for a long time, the final outcome must depend on how drops in the costs of producing and trading goods interact with the various costs borne by migrants. Finally, when labor is heterogeneous, the most efficient workers of the less productive region are the first to move to the more productive region.

Firm dynamics in the Cambodian garment industry: firm turnover, productivity growth, and wage profile under trade liberalization

The international garment trade was liberalized in 2005 following the termination of the MFA (Multifibre Arrangement) and ever since then, price competition has intensified. Employing a unique firm dataset collected by the authors, this paper examines the changes in the performance of Cambodian garment firms between 2002/03 and 2008/09. During the period concerned, frequent firm turnover led to an improvement of the industry’s productivity, and the study found that the average total-factor productivity (TFP) of new entrants was substantially higher than that of exiting firms. Furthermore, we observed that thanks to productivity growth, an improvement in workers’ welfare, including a rise in the relative wages of the low-skilled, was taking place. These industrial dynamics differ considerably from those indicated by the “race to the bottom” argument as applied to labor-intensive industrialization in low income countries.