The IDE geographical simulation model : predicting long-term effects of infrastructure development projects

It is important to be able to predict changes in the location of populations and industries in regions that are in the process of economic integration. The IDE Geographical Simulation Model (IDE-GSM) has been developed with two major objectives: (1) to determine the dynamics of locations of populations and industries in East Asia in the long-term, and (2) to analyze the impact of specific infrastructure projects on the regional economy at sub-national levels. The basic structure of the IDE-GSM is introduced in this article and accompanied with results of test analyses on the effects of the East West Economic Corridor on regions in Continental South East Asia. Results indicate that border costs appear to play a big role in the location choice of populations and industries, often a more important role than physical infrastructures themselves.

Compilation, application and challenge of IDE-JETRO's International Input-Output tables

International input-output tables are among the most useful tools for economic analysis. Since these tables provide detailed information about international production networks, they have recently attracted considerable attention in research on spatial economics, global value chains, and issues relating to trade in value-added. The Institute of Developing Economies at the Japan External Trade Organization (IDE-JETRO) has more than 40 years of experience in the construction and analysis of international input-output tables. This paper explains the development of IDE-JETRO’s multi-regional input-output projects including the construction of the Asian International Input-Output table and the Transnational Interregional Input-Output table between China and Japan. To help users understand the features of the tables, this paper also gives examples of their application.

The Role of Distance in Determining International Transport Costs: Evidence from Philippine Import Data

This paper presents an empirical investigation of the appropriateness of distance as a determinant of international transport costs by using Philippine import data. This study addresses three specific questions. First, does distance really matter in the determination of transport costs? Second, if distance is a significant factor, what is the magnitude of its impact? Third, does the impact of distance on transport costs vary by commodity? Results indicate that while distance is important in determining transport costs, using distance alone as the proxy of international transport costs is insufficient, and such use underestimates the impact of distance on international transport costs. Results also indicate that the impact of distance varies across commodity groups, but it is difficult to precisely determine the direction and the magnitude of this impact.

The Garment Industry in Cambodia: Its Role in Poverty Reduction through Export-Oriented Development

Cambodia's export-oriented garment industry has contributed greatly to poverty reduction in the country through employment of the poor. This paper provides a statistical verification of this contribution based on firm-level data from 164 sampled companies collected in 2003. Its main conclusions confirm the substantial impact that employment in the garment industry has had on poverty reduction in Cambodia. Firstly, entry-level workers receive wages far above the poverty line. Secondly, females make up the predominant share of the main category jobs in the industry. Thirdly, barriers to employment and to promotions up to certain job categories are not high in terms of education and experience. Another important finding is that a typical sample firm exhibited high profitability, although there was wide variation in profitability among firms. This average of high profitability could be a good predictor of Cambodia's viability in the intensified competition since the phase out of the Multi-Fiber Arrangement (MFA) at the beginning of 2005. A point of note is that Cambodia's pattern of industrial development led by a labor-intensive industry is similar to that of neighboring countries in East Asia which earlier went through the initial stage of industrial development, except that Cambodia has lacked a strong government industrial promotion policy which characterized the earlier group.

Explaining the Persistence of State-ownership in China

In the recent decade China witnessed an upsurge of privatization of small and medium state-owned enterprises (SOEs). In contrast to the consequent sharp reduction in the number of firms, however, the estimated share of broadly-defined SOEs that includes limited liabilities companies controlled by the State has shown virtually no sign of decline. We explain the backgrounds of this seemingly paradoxical persistence of state-ownership by looking into two distinctive types of large SOEs: traditional SOEs that remain dominant in oligopolistic industries and manager-controlled SOEs surviving in competitive industries. The two types exemplify several factors constraining further progress of SOE reform such as, financing the costs of restructuring, redefining the role of the State as the single dominant shareholder, and balancing the interests of the State and managers as entrepreneurs. Sorting these issues out will take time, which means that instabilities associated with state corporate ownership will remain in place in the foreseeable future in China.

Is Group Lending A Good Enforcement Scheme for Achieving High Repayment Rates?: Evidence from Field Experiments in Vietnam

Microfinance institutions employ various kinds of incentive schemes but estimating the effect of each scheme is not easy due to endogeneity bias. We conducted field experiments in Vietnam to capture the role of joint liability, monitoring, cross-reporting, social sanctions, communication and group formation in borrowers’ repayment behavior. We find that joint liability contracts cause serious free-riding problems, inducing strategic default and lowering repayment rates. When group members observe each others’ investment returns, participants are more likely to choose strategic default. Even after introducing a cross-reporting system and/or penalties among borrowers, the default rates and the ratios of participants who chose strategic default under joint liability are still higher than those under individual lending. We also find that joint liability lending often failed to induce mutual insurance among borrowers. Those who had been helped or who had repaid a little in the previous round were more likely to default strategically and repay a little again in the current round and those who paid large amounts were always the same individuals.

Executive Managers in Peru's Family Businesses

As in many other developing countries, family businesses are major players in the Peruvian economy. Despite their growth into large-scale groups spanning a wide range of businesses, the owner families still have strong control over their ownership and management. However, Peru's liberal economic reforms in the 1990s brought intense competition into the national market. Not only have these family businesses been forced to compete against large-scale foreign capital that entered the national market through the privatization of state enterprises, but also against cheap goods imported from foreign countries. In order to compete, family businesses have had to move beyond the limited human resources available within the family. The advancement within owner families of new generations with better education and training together with the promotion to top managerial positions of professional salaried managers from outside the family are some of the measures owner families are taking to overcome their human resource limitations.

Trade Credits under Imperfect Enforcement: A Theory with a Test on Chinese Experience

It is widely recognized that trade credit is an important financial mechanism, particularly in developing economies and transition economies where institutions are weak. This paper documents theoretical analysis and empirical accounts on what facilitates an effective supply of trade credit based on original surveys conducted in P.R. of China. Our theory predicts that trade volume and trade credit are increasing function of cash held by the buyer and enforcement technology of the seller. Furthermore, if the state sector’s enforcement technology is high, it has positive external effect to expand the volumes of trade credit and trades in the whole economy. From the data, we found that government made active commitment in enforcement of trade credit contract and the government owned firms are main supplier and receivers of trade credit, which suggest that enforcement by government and state sector were effective against presumptions in the previous literatures.

Australia's Foreign Economic Policy: a 'State-Society Coalition' Approach and a Historical Overview

This paper aims to explain the historical development of Australia's foreign economic policy by using an analytical framework called a 'state-society coalition' approach. This approach focuses on virtual coalitions of state and society actors that share 'belief systems' and hold similar policy ideas, goals and preferences, as basic units (policy subsystems) of policy making. Major policy changes occur when a dominant coalition is replaced by another. The paper argues that, in Australia, there have been three major state-society coalitions in the foreign economic policy issue area: 'protectionists', 'trade liberalisers' and 'optional bilateralists'. The rise and fall of these coalitions resulted in distinctive shifts of Australia's foreign economic policy in the 1980s towards unilateral and multilateral liberalisation and in the late 1990s towards bilateral trade and investment arrangements.

Indian Patent Policy and Publich Health : implications from the Japanese Experience

The introduction of pharmaceutical product patents in India and other developing countries is expected to have a significant effect on public health and local pharmaceutical industries. This paper draws implications from the historical experience of Japan when it introduced product patents in 1976. In Japan, narrow patents and promotion of cross-licensing were effective tools to keep drug prices in check while ensuring the introduction of new drugs. While the global pharmaceutical market surrounding India today differs considerably from that of the 1970's, the Japanese experience offers a policy option that may profitably be considered by India today. The Indian patent system emphasizes the patentability requirement in contrast to the Japanese patent policy which relied on narrow patents and extensive licensing. R&D by local firms and the development of local products may be promoted more effectively under the Japanese model.

Agricultural Policies and Development of Myanmar's Agricultural Sector: An Overview

This paper reviews the development of the agricultural sector in Myanmar after the transition to an open economy in 1988 and analyzes the nature as well as the performance of the agricultural sector. The avoidance of social unrest and the maintenance of control by the regime are identified as the two key factors that have determined the nature of agricultural policy after 1988. A major consequence of agricultural policy has been a clear difference in development paths among the major crops. Production of crops that had a potential for development showed sluggish growth due to policy constraints, whereas there has been a self-sustaining increase in the output of those crops that have fallen outside the remit of agricultural policy.

The Degree of Competition in the Thai Banking Industry before and after the East Asian Crisis

This paper analyzes the influence of the East Asian crisis and the subsequent reforms on the oligopolistic nature of the Thai banking industry. Since the crisis, there have been substantial changes in competitive environment, including a decline in the family ownership of banks as well as the arrival of new entrants. How did these changes affect a banking industry in which the six largest local banks accounted for over 70 percent of market share? The estimated Lerner index from Bresnahan's [1989] conjectural variation model indicates the possibility of a decline in the degree of competition.

Negative Bubbles and Unpredictability of Financial Markets: The Asian Currency Crisis in 1997

We obtain the three following conclusions. First, business cycles depend on prices of stocks and primary commodities such as crude oil. Second, stock prices and oil prices generate psychological cycles with different periods. Third, there exist cases of "negative bubble" under certain conditions. Integrating the above results, we can find a role of a government in financial market in developing countries.

Integration versus Outsourcing in Stable Industry Equilibrium with Communication Networks

For the selection of a firm's structure between vertical integration and arm's-length outsourcing, the importance of the thickness of the market had been emphasized in the previous literature. Here we take account of communication networks such as telephone, telex, fax, and the Internet. By doing so, we could illustrate the relationship between communication networks and the make-or-buy decision. With communication network technology differing in each type of firm, both vertically integrated firms and arm's-length outsourcing firms coexist, which was never indicated in the previous literature. However, when common network technology is introduced, such coexistence generically does not occur.

Expansion of Asparagus Production and Exports in Peru

Peru is the one of the most important exporters of asparagus in the world. Its export volume of fresh asparagus is ranked number one, and its export volume of preserved asparagus number two, globally. The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of the recent trends in asparagus production and exports around the world and to analyze factors in the development of the Peruvian asparagus industry. The production of asparagus has spread geographically. The center of its production used to be in the principal consuming countries, such as France, Germany and the United States. Afterward, it spread to neighboring countries such as Spain and Mexico where production factors such as climate and labor costs are favorable. After the rise and fall of Taiwan as a major preserved white asparagus exporter, China and Peru replaced its position. Finally, in recent years, Peru expanded its fresh green asparagus exports to the U.S. market by taking advantage of the increasing demand for fresh vegetables and supplying produce in seasons when neither U.S. nor Mexican producers can harvest. In addition to the changing factors in the international market, there are several factors in the development of the industry: high yields of produce due to favorable climatic and soil conditions; the introduction of the drip irrigation system, which enabled desert cultivation; the integration of production and exports, which is indispensable for fresh produce exports; and the collective efforts of the industry with help from the public sector.